66 DT shards from 146 sims

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danflorian1984
986 posts Member
edited April 2017
Yeah, another post regarding drop rate. I kept reading that the drop rate is 33 percent, that people complaining about the drop rate didn't consider their samples being small. Well 140 tries is not a small sample any more. Actually for a F2P or guppy player is rather big. And in day 3 the drop rate remained 23% just like in the previous days, without variation. So how many crystals should i waste before I will reach the mythical 33%? Was drop rate nerfed for the double drops or I have enough bad luck that I should stay this days inside so I would't be struck by lighting?
Post edited by danflorian1984 on

Replies

  • 140 attempts is a drop in the bucket to measure accurately a proper sample on RNG. this has been covered on dozens of posts to the same conclusion.
  • Can I interest you in a whaaburger and some french cries
  • Yeah, another post regarding drop rate. I kept reading that the drop rate is 33 percent, that people complaining about the drop rate didn't consider their samples being small. Well 140 tries is not a small sample any more. Actually for a F2P or guppy player is rather big. And in day 3 the drop rate remained 23% just like in the previous days, without variation. So how many crystals should i waste before I will reach the mythical 33%? Was drop rate nerfed for the double drops or I have enough bad luck that I should stay this days inside so I would't be struck by lighting?

    If you thought they weren't lowering the drop rates for double drop day your dealer must have some amazing crack
  • Yea... I have same feeling that shards appear more often w/o double drop. The truth is there is only 1.2-1.5x drop but ppl see 2x reward so they will spend money on refreshes anyway. Iam still happy with abbility mats and cantina coins so I can max out boba 2x faster.
    Kinda dirty plays by EA after all this mess with postponed events.
  • dough
    641 posts Member
    StarWhales wrote: »
    Can I interest you in a whaaburger and some french cries

    wow, did u come up with that material all on ur own, Amy Schumer?
  • ChrisZovy wrote: »
    140 attempts is a drop in the bucket to measure accurately a proper sample on RNG. this has been covered on dozens of posts to the same conclusion.
    assuming I'm remembering my statistics class correctly there's a 0.97% chance of only getting 33/140 if the expected amount was 47/140
  • Okay but like......... isn't it weird that whenever people sit down and calculate what their drop rate is its always inexplicably lower than 33%? Shouldn't an equal number of people be able to attest to a rate higher than 33% and at 33%?
  • Okay but like......... isn't it weird that whenever people sit down and calculate what their drop rate is its always inexplicably lower than 33%? Shouldn't an equal number of people be able to attest to a rate higher than 33% and at 33%?

    Nobody comes to complain about how great their drop rate was.
  • dough wrote: »
    StarWhales wrote: »
    Can I interest you in a whaaburger and some french cries

    wow, did u come up with that material all on ur own, Amy Schumer?

    Nah, that was Kid Rock in Joe Dirt.
    #DroppinKnowledge
  • I understand that but if I had sat down and recorded my drop rates and found them to be consistent I'd probably chime in with a "this is anecdotal—not just on principle, but because I recorded my own drop rate, too".
  • Nikoms565
    10401 posts Member
    Okay but like......... isn't it weird that whenever people sit down and calculate what their drop rate is its always inexplicably lower than 33%? Shouldn't an equal number of people be able to attest to a rate higher than 33% and at 33%?

    Find the "I tracked over 2000 drops thread".

    Hint: It's not lower than 33%

    Find the thread by cosmicturtle, where the entire guild recorded and tracked Drop rates for Rey.

    Hint: it's 32.7% - within margin of error.

    The only time it's lower than 33% is when people post extremely limited sample sizes that amount to anecdote. Whenever data is tracked and recorded over a statistically significant sample size, it has always pointed to 33% - that's why "everybody says it".
    In game name: Lucas Gregory - - - -"Whale blah grump poooop." - Ouchie

    In game guild: DeathStarVentDesigners - DVD for short.
    I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
    *This space left intentionally blank*
  • dough
    641 posts Member
    yeah that's great and all but most people aren't flush enough to sit around dumping enough $$ into the game to arrive at your precious milestone -- and maybe by the time they've reached a couple/few hundred they're over it.
  • Nikoms565
    10401 posts Member
    edited April 2017
    dough wrote: »
    yeah that's great and all but most people aren't flush enough to sit around dumping enough $$ into the game to arrive at your precious milestone -- and maybe by the time they've reached a couple/few hundred they're over it.

    I didn't write either of the threads. Just providing real information.

    https://forums.galaxy-of-heroes.starwars.ea.com/discussion/21257/rey-drop-rate-32-72/p1

    https://forums.galaxy-of-heroes.starwars.ea.com/discussion/91405/so-i-tracked-2-000-drops/p1

    My bad, the second thread comes up with 30% cantina drop rate - not 33%.
    In game name: Lucas Gregory - - - -"Whale blah grump poooop." - Ouchie

    In game guild: DeathStarVentDesigners - DVD for short.
    I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
    *This space left intentionally blank*
  • Winstar
    2429 posts Member
    edited April 2017
    Pretty sure they purposely made DT shards drop at a lower drop rate than other hero shards on the 8-10-12 nodes to maintain the premium character illusion.

    Hence the availability and premium pricing the store and shard shop. If EA is going to be evil about it mine as well put Krennic on a cantina node already with the pee-poor drop rate as well.

    Sure, DT, Shoretrooper, and Baze are free, but at a painfully slow snail pace unless you decide to speed up the process with crystals, or spend to jack up your team to be able to 3* a node.

    Good luck. DT node is a trap!
  • Nikoms565
    10401 posts Member
    Winstar wrote: »
    Pretty sure they purposely made DT shards drop at a lower drop rate than other hero shards on the 8-10-12 nodes to maintain the premium character illusion.

    Hence the availability and premium pricing the store and shard shop. If EA is going to be evil about it mine as well put Krennic on a cantina node already with the pee-poor drop rate as well.

    Sure, DT, Shoretrooper, and Baze are free, but at a painfully slow snail pace unless you decide to speed up the process with crystals, or spend to jack up your team to be able to 3* a node.

    Good luck. DT node is a trap!

    Yep. I'm sure they took the time to change the drop rate of one node. For a mediocre Empire ton that is hardly meta, no less. Just to mess with everybody.

    I wish the devs worked as hard at fixing bugs as some posters do on outlandish conspiracy theories. :D
    In game name: Lucas Gregory - - - -"Whale blah grump poooop." - Ouchie

    In game guild: DeathStarVentDesigners - DVD for short.
    I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
    *This space left intentionally blank*
  • Gifafi
    1063 posts Member
    isn't 66/120 47%? mbn
  • My kylo ren drop rate was 0 for 36 sims then I was lucky and got 6 from 24. I never see 33% and I've been around a long time.
  • ChrisZovy wrote: »
    140 attempts is a drop in the bucket to measure accurately a proper sample on RNG. this has been covered on dozens of posts to the same conclusion.

    So what would be a proper sample in your opinion? BTW I just had another 3 tries with 0 shards droped. That makes it 33 succes from 143 tries. I checked a statistical site and if I read correctly the chances of my drop rate occuring naturally at my number of tries related to the teorethical drop rate of 33% is under 1%. So even though my statistic is weak and rusty doesn' t that means that is under 1% chance for me to have a bad RNG and 99% that the drop rate has been tampered?
  • Olga
    1333 posts Member
    edited April 2017
    Developers never claimed 33%. This is a rough number assumed by players based on evidence. Numbers seen during this event continue to support the roughly 33% drop rate assumption.

  • Sapient2k7 wrote: »
    Drop rate was NOT changed just the rewards were. So if it drops it drops twice as many of each thing it was supposed to.

    I have noticed different drop rates different times of the day. RNGesus is a fickle god so chalk it up to randomness.

    The Drop rate is about 33% over a long period of time. I have seen days with near 50% drop rate and days with less than 10% as well. If you takes 10s of thousands of samples I am sure it will come to about 33%.

    Yeah but I checked and in each of the 3 days I had a constant drop rate of about 23%, without variatios of 10% in a day and 50 in another.

    Anyway is kinda of a moot point, I don't have enough crystals to ever reach the point of a "fair return for my investment". Even if I would have a 80% drop rate from now on it still wouldn't allow me to even reach the teoretical 33%.
  • Nikoms565 wrote: »
    dough wrote: »
    yeah that's great and all but most people aren't flush enough to sit around dumping enough $$ into the game to arrive at your precious milestone -- and maybe by the time they've reached a couple/few hundred they're over it.

    I didn't write either of the threads. Just providing real information.

    https://forums.galaxy-of-heroes.starwars.ea.com/discussion/21257/rey-drop-rate-32-72/p1

    https://forums.galaxy-of-heroes.starwars.ea.com/discussion/91405/so-i-tracked-2-000-drops/p1

    My bad, the second thread comes up with 30% cantina drop rate - not 33%.

    Lol @cosmicturtle333 would be thrilled to see he is still remembered around these parts.

    And yes drop rates are the drop rates and our human expectations are naturally high but these two facts are incompatible.

    Roughly 30-33% is the very long term average. Less than that and you had bad luck - more goats needed for rngesus to be on your side.
    | ANZGC | Exile |
  • anonidude
    696 posts Member
    edited April 2017
    Personal experience now that I worked it out was 98 Plo Koon's shards and 6 Kylo from 114 or so attempts.

    My goats were gooood shizzle

    (Actually my drop rates were too high. Pls punish me)
    | ANZGC | Exile |
  • I've had amazing drop rates during this double drop. maybe your balancing my good rng
  • Darthpippa wrote: »
    I've had amazing drop rates during this double drop. maybe your balancing my good rng

    Were you farming Death Trooper? Because all the people I see complaining on forums about drop rates were farming DT.
  • I have been getting great drops for DT. Today I got 18 out if 18 attempts. I have been playing g since the beginning and have noticed the same drop rates the whole time. Yes there are some bad days, but there are also great days.
  • Nozone2016
    370 posts Member
    edited April 2017
    I've been farming DT and it has got to be one of the slowest farms (or feels that way) even with refreshes. Since the 2x event started I've averaged about 6 shards per refresh. EDIT when I say 'refresh' I mean the 100 + 100 crystal refresh on cantina energy

    Anyway a 33% chance of a drop means you could in theory spend 1 million energy and get 0 shards (if you roll a dice you have a 1/6 chance of rolling the number 3. You could still roll it say 6 times, and get 0x3). Unlikely as the more energy (or dice rolls) the more you move towards the 33% (or 1/6 or whatever). So bearing this in mind I'm neither surprised or disappointed that many times I've gone through a full energy refresh or more and received 0 shards
  • I will not be able to continue tracking drops for DT because I will not be farming DT shards anymore. Sometimes you reach a point when enough is enough and in my case 149 tries were enough. I hope that DT is useful at 5* at least in arena, since raids are out of the question, and if I will bother even gearing him up.
  • I will not be able to continue tracking drops for DT because I will not be farming DT shards anymore. Sometimes you reach a point when enough is enough and in my case 149 tries were enough. I hope that DT is useful at 5* at least in arena, since raids are out of the question, and if I will bother even gearing him up.

    I have him at 4* G8... I had intended to try running him with DK (4* G8) for fun but I've tested them in Galactic War and I'm not a huge fan. I was thinking of swapping them in for Shoretrooper/Royal Guard on my Empire team but I'm not so sure I like the playstyle but maybe that's because I'm so used to my Empire team as it is. I'm not even close to being able to farm Shoretrooper yet so I thought DT/DK might be an alternative (not substitute). DT has some useful abilities though (AoE dispel is handy)
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