Drop Rates?

Treadhead2017

Yeah, I know. This comes up from time to time. And normally I'm on the side that drop rates are okay and haven't been nerfed or changed. You know, that over time they're pretty steady. But I'm not seeing that lately; seeing a very definite decrease.

Been tracking drop rates over the past couple of weeks on key gear, and it's abysmal. I mean, as in 1 in 8 to 1 in 10. Not 1 in 3 or even 1 in 4. Anyone else noticing this? RNG is one thing, but after awhile it's too blatant to be random; something's wrong. I'm wondering if it's a move from the devs; decrease the drop rate on gear you get from flash events. That's definitely the gear I was farming, so maybe.

Kyno

Nope. Nothing changed.

Yes drop rates are at the same mediocre rate they have always been.

Sorry.

jjkriv

Simmed 18 Mk3s,needed 3 and got 1..flat out rediculous!

Treadhead2017

Kyno wrote: »

Nope. Nothing changed.

Yes drop rates are at the same mediocre rate they have always been.

Sorry.

Sure about that? Over the past two days, as an example, I farmed syringes. Two full refreshes at 50 gems each. Zero drops. Two full refreshes the day before, same gear; one drop. Two full refreshes the day before that; one drop. Two full refreshes the day before that; 2 drops.

Doesn't feel the same to me at all. And I'm seeing similar results on holodisks; full energy refreshes, 1 or maybe two drops each.

I used to pretty much get this kind of thing like clockwork with 1/4 drop rates; I could almost predict when I'd complete a piece. Now it's taking me two weeks or more to complete one unless it's in a challenge.

Kyno

I have been farming cantina for the past several days and have seen no change.

Farming pheonix sim 4 at a time. Consistently getting 1-3 drops for strings of 4 or 5. Even got 4 twice in the past week.

I have been farming stun guns too, similar drop pattern, just at a slightly lower rate so more 1s and 2s as I have always seen.

So yes I am sure.

Platypoctopus

The RNG in this game ends up working in waves. So you're getting 1 or 2 out of 20 for several days in a row, but pay close attention to the next time you start getting better drops. Even just a couple times of getting 3 or 4 from 5 sims will shoot your average drop rate back up, but because of how we perceive probability, we tend to ignore how huge of an effect those few clusters really have on the overall average. Seeing 20 sims in a row with 1 drop seems truly abysmal and impossible, but then if you do 5 sims and get 3 drops, you're suddenly sitting at 4/25, then maybe you do another 5 and get 2, now you're at 6/30, which puts you back at 20% (I forget if it's 20% or 25%, I always thought it was 20% for purples).

The point is, you are just in a very bad wave most likely. It's certainly not unlikely for you to go days with awful drops. If you want to make yourself feel better, start tracking all your drops in excel. For a long time I would be pulling my hair out after doing 15 cantina sims and getting 0 shards, but after tracking them over the long run, I'd see that even just getting a couple in a row here and there drastically increased my average so that it was back to the expected 33%. Getting 1 in 8 or 10 for a few days is not that uncommon for me, the key is to remember the times you've gotten 6 in 10 and factor that into your long-term average.

Humans are notoriously horrible at processing probability - in a few weeks you might look back at this post and laugh because it is literally identical to all the other posts you said you know pop up, followed by a "but this time..."

Stevie_Rage

I never farm gear that is available in a store because I've perceived the drop rates being worse at these times. I've not collected any data but it seems real to me. I never get horrible drop rates this way.
For 50 purple gear sim 5 at a time, for 20 purple 4 sims, anything else 3 sims. Psychologically it's better whether it's real or not.

wearywarrior74

Platypoctopus wrote: »

The RNG in this game ends up working in waves. So you're getting 1 or 2 out of 20 for several days in a row, but pay close attention to the next time you start getting better drops. Even just a couple times of getting 3 or 4 from 5 sims will shoot your average drop rate back up, but because of how we perceive probability, we tend to ignore how huge of an effect those few clusters really have on the overall average. Seeing 20 sims in a row with 1 drop seems truly abysmal and impossible, but then if you do 5 sims and get 3 drops, you're suddenly sitting at 4/25, then maybe you do another 5 and get 2, now you're at 6/30, which puts you back at 20% (I forget if it's 20% or 25%, I always thought it was 20% for purples).

The point is, you are just in a very bad wave most likely. It's certainly not unlikely for you to go days with awful drops. If you want to make yourself feel better, start tracking all your drops in excel. For a long time I would be pulling my hair out after doing 15 cantina sims and getting 0 shards, but after tracking them over the long run, I'd see that even just getting a couple in a row here and there drastically increased my average so that it was back to the expected 33%. Getting 1 in 8 or 10 for a few days is not that uncommon for me, the key is to remember the times you've gotten 6 in 10 and factor that into your long-term average.

Humans are notoriously horrible at processing probability - in a few weeks you might look back at this post and laugh because it is literally identical to all the other posts you said you know pop up, followed by a "but this time..."

I've noticed this pattern also. Farming FOST and the drops have been terrible. Then today, surprisingly, 6/6. Seriously? Need to predict those "waves".