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234 posts Member
edited May 2018
I'm guessing they don't have a 30% drop rate like a regular hard node? 8 runs and zero bonus shards....

The chances of that are 0.019% or 0.00019 (70% chance of not getting one, 24 times)

Replies

• 2100 posts Member
That is too small a sample to make judgements on.. on 32 runs I got 6 shards. 18ish percent. Barely even noticeable
• 20736 posts Moderator
This is what is known as insufficient data.
• 234 posts Member
edited May 2018
AHAHAH no.

You all don't understand how this works. 8 runs, 3 possible shards per run, 24 attempts if you will, with a supposed 30% drop rate.

These are assumptions, but I didn't need to draw any conclusions, I stated a mathematical fact. The chances of that happening are roughly 0.02%. (a 1 in 5000 chance, so who knows) I'm not making a judgement, I'm stating a mathematical answer to an easy problem.

A possible conclusion is that the rates are not 30%.

As far as goes "32 runs I got 6 shards" that's six of 96 possible (bonus) shards, so roughly 6%, if you're including the shards you should have gotten from the node itself, your numbers are even lower.
• 390 posts Member
I spent more or less 750 energy to get only 4 DN and 2 holdo shards... Since when they drops its a 2xshard drop... Its just 3 drops in the whole day xD

Maybe im the unluckyest guy in the world :S but 3 drops in 750 energy seems a bit low for a "bonus" event xD
• 234 posts Member
Yeah, I'm not trying to complain about free stuff, but when they bend over backwards to say, "All drops rates on shards are consistent!" and then this happens, it elicits a lot of doubt.
• 258 posts Member
edited May 2018
Mahbrethir wrote: »
AHAHAH no.

You all don't understand how this works. 8 runs, 3 possible shards per run, 24 attempts if you will, with a supposed 30% drop rate.

These are assumptions, but I didn't need to draw any conclusions, I stated a mathematical fact. The chances of that happening are roughly 0.02%. (a 1 in 5000 chance, so who knows) I'm not making a judgement, I'm stating a mathematical answer to an easy problem.

A possible conclusion is that the rates are not 30%.

As far as goes "32 runs I got 6 shards" that's six of 96 possible (bonus) shards, so roughly 6%, if you're including the shards you should have gotten from the node itself, your numbers are even lower.

That last paragraph marginalizes your first paragraph. You can't determine p(x) if you don't know if rewards are dependent or independent. Just saying.
• 258 posts Member
Mahbrethir wrote: »
AHAHAH no.

You all don't understand how this works. 8 runs, 3 possible shards per run, 24 attempts if you will, with a supposed 30% drop rate.

These are assumptions, but I didn't need to draw any conclusions, I stated a mathematical fact. The chances of that happening are roughly 0.02%. (a 1 in 5000 chance, so who knows) I'm not making a judgement, I'm stating a mathematical answer to an easy problem.

A possible conclusion is that the rates are not 30%.

As far as goes "32 runs I got 6 shards" that's six of 96 possible (bonus) shards, so roughly 6%, if you're including the shards you should have gotten from the node itself, your numbers are even lower.

Your last paragraph shows you may not understand how statistics works. To calculate P(x) you would need to know if all rewards are dependent or independent. It's a different formula depending ... just saying.
• 843 posts Member
I just spent 460 energy. 23 sims i.e. Got 20(10×2) shards. The chances of that happening are *insert number*. Therefore, the drop rate % is *insert number*.
No, that's not how it works. Insufficient data size, mate.
• 234 posts Member
Jeric wrote: »
Mahbrethir wrote: »
AHAHAH no.

You all don't understand how this works. 8 runs, 3 possible shards per run, 24 attempts if you will, with a supposed 30% drop rate.

These are assumptions, but I didn't need to draw any conclusions, I stated a mathematical fact. The chances of that happening are roughly 0.02%. (a 1 in 5000 chance, so who knows) I'm not making a judgement, I'm stating a mathematical answer to an easy problem.

A possible conclusion is that the rates are not 30%.

As far as goes "32 runs I got 6 shards" that's six of 96 possible (bonus) shards, so roughly 6%, if you're including the shards you should have gotten from the node itself, your numbers are even lower.

Your last paragraph shows you may not understand how statistics works. To calculate P(x) you would need to know if all rewards are dependent or independent. It's a different formula depending ... just saying.

I think you're misinterpreting what I'm trying to say. I'm not trying to determine the drop rate. I'm trying to show the drop rate that devs have stated is not correct, they have adamantly stated that drop rates are independent of anything, and there are no changes in drop rates based on the way you run the node (2 or 3 attempts or 8 all at once, or changes in drop rates leading up to events)

My assumptions are likely wrong. I assume they're wrong, that's the whole point. I'm assuming that the bonus drops each have a 30% independent chance of dropping, I'm assuming what the devs said is the truth.

If that's the case, it's matter of mathematical fact to say: the chances of getting zero bonus shards on 8 runs is 0.02% one fiftieth of one percent. So.... therefore it's highly likely that my assumptions were incorrect, and in the drop rates for these bonus shards are not as the devs stated.

In regard to, "my last paragraph." I was correcting the earlier statement that implied he got '18ish' (6/32) percent of the total possible shards, to which I replied, that it was actually 6% (6/96) of the possible bonus. I wasn't making a probability calculation based on that, I was simply correcting the ratio of successes/attempts he stated before.
• 234 posts Member
I just spent 460 energy. 23 sims i.e. Got 20(10×2) shards. The chances of that happening are *insert number*. Therefore, the drop rate % is *insert number*.
No, that's not how it works. Insufficient data size, mate.

That... is exactly how it works....

If you know the drop rate, that is the only way it works....

Maybe you should reread the topic...
• 1175 posts Member
I got 8 on a SIM of 8 so the drop rate is 100% it was all shard shop currency though
• 234 posts Member
edited May 2018
I'll say it nice and slow to ward off future posts about sample size.....

I'm not calculating a drop rate.

I'm using the stated drop rate by the devs, and calculating the chance of a given result. That's an easy math problem, what's the chance of a flipping a coin and getting X amount of heads, what's the chance of drawing two cards from a deck and they're both aces, etc. You don't need sample sizes because I'm not proposing a new rate.

A coin flip is fifty fifty.... What's the chance of getting a heads after one flip? 50%... that's a fact.

Per the devs, what's the chance of getting a shard from a hardnode? 30%, that's a fact. What's the chance of getting none from 24 attempts? 0.02% and that's a fact.

I'm not saying what the drop rate is..... so stop talking about sample size...
• 480 posts Member
I think the drop rate is only 10 %.
• 221 posts Member
I agree, the drop rate is way below 30%. I used 3 refresh everyday during the event and barely got 20 bonus shards in the end. Same with guild event tokens, 3 refresh every day and got less than 400 tokens in the end... Double drop would have been so much nicer than this.
• 1140 posts Member
for a game with say (assuming) 100,000 active players, about 20 should get that. Your math checks out, but its very possible you ve just been very, very unlucky
• 928 posts Member
This is simply not how "odds" work.

I think the drop rates were low for a different reason. Each hard node effectively had odds on dropping 4 possible character shards (sometimes 5 if it had a ship on the node) and the drop rates were the same. So I think the coding went something like this (30% chance for a bonus shard to drop, then equal chance to receiving 1 of the 3 bonus characters). If that's the case, the coding was lame. In lieu of double drops, the least they could have done was provide a 30% chance for each bonus shard to drop. Not once did I get a bonus shard for 2 separate characters.
• 13477 posts Member
I did.

Yesterday I did 6 sims and got:

3 Lobot (don't laugh)
6 Holdo
2 Fulcrum

6 sims, 7 drops. Or more accurately, 6 sims, 11 shards. Pretty darn good.
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• 928 posts Member
TVF wrote: »
I did.

Yesterday I did 6 sims and got:

3 Lobot (don't laugh)
6 Holdo
2 Fulcrum

6 sims, 7 drops. Or more accurately, 6 sims, 11 shards. Pretty darn good.

ugh, I have the worst luck in this game.
• 573 posts Member
I had one run where I received bonus shards for all 3, so it appears I can confirm it’s not an either/or situation.

Also, where did they state the 30% drop rate? I know that’s what they’ve stated for normal hard node drops, but I never saw them state that for bonus shards.

If I had to guess I would bet the bonus shard drop was something more like 10% per character, for a total of 30% bonus drop chance.

Under that assumption, your first example of zero drops on 8 runs (.7^8) 0.058 or 5.8% or 1 in ~17 attempts. That certainly seems reasonable to me, and anecdotally seems to match what I experienced.
• 5167 posts Member
This thread is what happens when people who don't understand probability think that they understand probability.

You complain about the drop rate and then say you are not discussing drop rate. Ok then.

The simple truth is that you do not know how the bonus drops were implemented, none of us do, so all we can do is draw upon empirical evidence. For you, it would seem bonus drops are impossible. Bummer, dude. Well, that's probability for you.
• 13477 posts Member
Rebel_yell wrote: »
TVF wrote: »
I did.

Yesterday I did 6 sims and got:

3 Lobot (don't laugh)
6 Holdo
2 Fulcrum

6 sims, 7 drops. Or more accurately, 6 sims, 11 shards. Pretty darn good.

ugh, I have the worst luck in this game.

Well I also had plenty of terrible drops.

Which is the point. You can't say your luck is terrible any more than mine is awesome. It evens out.
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• 928 posts Member
TVF wrote: »
Rebel_yell wrote: »
TVF wrote: »
I did.

Yesterday I did 6 sims and got:

3 Lobot (don't laugh)
6 Holdo
2 Fulcrum

6 sims, 7 drops. Or more accurately, 6 sims, 11 shards. Pretty darn good.

ugh, I have the worst luck in this game.

Well I also had plenty of terrible drops.

Which is the point. You can't say your luck is terrible any more than mine is awesome. It evens out.

Except in an event with a limited timeframe. Yes, over the long-run it all evens out, but this was 4 days I got terrible drop rates. I even used your advice and switched from CHOLO to FOX. Did a 16 sim, got 0 GEC. This entitles me to complain.

PS - I don't complain about overall drop rates because I understand how they work, this is an anomaly and I get that.
• 843 posts Member
Do 3 sims at a time. :P
• 13477 posts Member
Rebel_yell wrote: »
I even used your advice and switched from CHOLO to FOX. Did a 16 sim, got 0 GEC. This entitles me to complain.

Does it?

Ok.
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• 234 posts Member
edited May 2018
This thread is what happens when people who don't understand probability think that they understand probability.

You complain about the drop rate and then say you are not discussing drop rate. Ok then.

The simple truth is that you do not know how the bonus drops were implemented, none of us do, so all we can do is draw upon empirical evidence. For you, it would seem bonus drops are impossible. Bummer, dude. Well, that's probability for you.

The problem, is that you don't understand the difference in statistics and probability. I'm not talking about a statistically based proposal in which I am theorizing a new drop rate based on a sample. I'm talking about the factual probability of obtaining zero successes in a trial of 24 attempts at 30% chance of success per attempt. That probability is roughly one in 5,000. And that, like it or not, is a fact.

Of course I don't know how the drops were implemented. That's the point.... I'm implying that's it's not a simple independent series of chances in which a single run has 4 independent 'chances of success' for a node's shard, and three separate bonus drops.

Put your condescension on hold until you learn what you're talking about.
I had one run where I received bonus shards for all 3, so it appears I can confirm it’s not an either/or situation.

Also, where did they state the 30% drop rate? I know that’s what they’ve stated for normal hard node drops, but I never saw them state that for bonus shards.

If I had to guess I would bet the bonus shard drop was something more like 10% per character, for a total of 30% bonus drop chance.

Under that assumption, your first example of zero drops on 8 runs (.7^8) 0.058 or 5.8% or 1 in ~17 attempts. That certainly seems reasonable to me, and anecdotally seems to match what I experienced.

Thank you thank you for actually being a part of the conversation. I'm assuming that the events are independent, and that your chance of receiving any given bonus shard is independent of the rest, with each run having 3 chances at shards. So I'm considering it 24 attempts, rather than 8. Thus postulating that we're looking at (.7^24) 0.0002 or 0.02%

That's just an assumption for the calculation. As has been stated, we don't know what those chances are, or how they're handling an individual run.
• 10808 posts Member
I would just like to suggest (as was suggested much earlier) that there is the possibility that there are two calculations in play per drop. The first could be a 30% chance check to determine if there is a bonus shard drop (of 2 shards) - the second, simply to determine which of three possible shards they are. So the OP was 0 for 8, not 0 for 24.

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• 234 posts Member
Nikoms565 wrote: »
I would just like to suggest (as was suggested much earlier) that there is the possibility that there are two calculations in play per drop. The first could be a 30% chance check to determine if there is a bonus shard drop (of 2 shards) - the second, simply to determine which of three possible shards they are. So the OP was 0 for 8, not 0 for 24.

It's quite possible, highly likely that something like this is going on. For the sake of calculations, I'm making assumptions, but those are just assumptions for the sake of a calculation, not necessarily what I personally think is going on behind the scenes so to speak.