Zero Rank in Raids

Lrrr

Can any Dev explain how the zero ranks are determined? I understand we’re told it’s random, but my rankings done feel random.

Started tracking it for the past few months...and my average ranking is 28.56 after 38 raids.

Now you may go 28.56 isn’t that far off of 25, and you are right, but that 28.56 isn’t based on 50, it’s based on around 45. I don’t have the exact ranking as I didn’t start tracking total guild entrants, but I know I’m not where a coin flip should put me on average.

Since i started tracking my rank compared to total entrants, it’s not any better - 30.24 out of 44.26.

To hit 50 percentile, I would need to be 1st in 7 straight raids with all 50 guild mates placing a zero.

So again - can we get some insight on the calculation? Does the game just hate me as much as I think it does, or is there something besides a coin flip behind the formula?

theatomicpun

One thing I don't see accounted for is how many members submit a score >0. If 45 people entered the raid, and 10 had a score >0, you would be randomized for the spots from 11 to 45. Halfway would be rank 28.

Otherwise: RNG

Kyno

You are assigned a number from 1 to 50 when you join the raid.

We are then ranked by damage, then your rank.

Are you tracking pre damage or post?

Lrrr

Kyno wrote: »

You are assigned a number from 1 to 50 when you join the raid.

We are then ranked by damage, then your rank.

Are you tracking pre damage or post?

Pre damage. In a guild where the whole guild can solo rancor, it’s a huge shot to rewards.

I started tracking because I felt like I was noticing a trend where I rarely was on the right side and since I started tracking I have no reason to doubt that theory.

One would think over time it would even out and I would be near 50%, but that’s not been the case. Point being either the random assignments aren’t that ‘random’ or I’m getting the shaft, over and over.

So I would like some clarity from a dev who can say what goes into that calculation.

Lrrr

Also why did this get moved? Just so it would die? I’d like an answer not just be shoved off to an area that won’t generate a response.

Kyno

Lrrr wrote: »

Kyno wrote: »

You are assigned a number from 1 to 50 when you join the raid.

We are then ranked by damage, then your rank.

Are you tracking pre damage or post?

Pre damage. In a guild where the whole guild can solo rancor, it’s a huge shot to rewards.

I started tracking because I felt like I was noticing a trend where I rarely was on the right side and since I started tracking I have no reason to doubt that theory.

One would think over time it would even out and I would be near 50%, but that’s not been the case. Point being either the random assignments aren’t that ‘random’ or I’m getting the shaft, over and over.

So I would like some clarity from a dev who can say what goes into that calculation.

so 38 raids is not a huge sample by any means and you should keep tracking.

statistics, do not target people and there is no reason for them to target you or anyone. I have seen streaks where i will not place top for a while, but the game has always been streaky and that doesn't mean it wont work out on the back end.

also, your statement about hitting 1, 7 times in a row, is not accurate. the number you hit or the repeated sequence doesn't matter, statistically speaking you could never hit 1 and still end up with an average above 25.

Gifafi

Lrrr wrote: »

Can any Dev explain how the zero ranks are determined? I understand we’re told it’s random, but my rankings done feel random.

Started tracking it for the past few months...and my average ranking is 28.56 after 38 raids.

Now you may go 28.56 isn’t that far off of 25, and you are right, but that 28.56 isn’t based on 50, it’s based on around 45. I don’t have the exact ranking as I didn’t start tracking total guild entrants, but I know I’m not where a coin flip should put me on average.

Since i started tracking my rank compared to total entrants, it’s not any better - 30.24 out of 44.26.

To hit 50 percentile, I would need to be 1st in 7 straight raids with all 50 guild mates placing a zero.

So again - can we get some insight on the calculation? Does the game just hate me as much as I think it does, or is there something besides a coin flip behind the formula?

you are upset that ranking 0 is not working out? I can't understand this post, fwiw

FailingCrab

Kyno wrote: »

also, your statement about hitting 1, 7 times in a row, is not accurate. the number you hit or the repeated sequence doesn't matter, statistically speaking you could never hit 1 and still end up with an average above 25.

Maybe I'm being a derp here - what are you saying?

1, 50, 48. Average is 33.

Kyno

FailingCrab wrote: »

Kyno wrote: »

also, your statement about hitting 1, 7 times in a row, is not accurate. the number you hit or the repeated sequence doesn't matter, statistically speaking you could never hit 1 and still end up with an average above 25.

Maybe I'm being a derp here - what are you saying?

1, 50, 48. Average is 33.

The OP stated he would need to hit 1 seven times in a row to hit the 50th percentile. Since his sample is already 38, that would make the total sample 45.

Random placement doesnt mean that after 50 raids everyone in the guild would take a single position, there is no limitation on the sample size.

I am simply saying that he needs a larger sample size and that a sequence of any placement is not necessary for him to have the correct average over time.

Lrrr

Kyno wrote: »

FailingCrab wrote: »

Kyno wrote: »

also, your statement about hitting 1, 7 times in a row, is not accurate. the number you hit or the repeated sequence doesn't matter, statistically speaking you could never hit 1 and still end up with an average above 25.

Maybe I'm being a derp here - what are you saying?

1, 50, 48. Average is 33.

The OP stated he would need to hit 1 seven times in a row to hit the 50th percentile. Since his sample is already 38, that would make the total sample 45.

Random placement doesnt mean that after 50 raids everyone in the guild would take a single position, there is no limitation on the sample size.

I am simply saying that he needs a larger sample size and that a sequence of any placement is not necessary for him to have the correct average over time.

@Kyno
You aren’t wrong that the sample size is small, but I think just because I started tracking it, one should in theory assume that I felt like my average ranking was lower than it should be prior to tracking it. This has just continued to show that my ranks aren’t in line.

I’m fine if the Devs want to say it’s 100% random. Then it’s just bad luck, but they have not confirmed that.

—————-

As to why it matters for those who ask, zero ranks prior to the raid in Rancor largely determine final ranks and thus raid rewards. When your entire guild can solo a raid, and you average a late spot, you get that spots rewards. In theory, with everything equal one should average 25 if all 50 entered the raid. I’m at 29.93 of 44.68 based on the time I take the data in a sample size of 28 (since I started tracking the total entrants from my guild).

Point being in Rancor content, I tend to get far lower rewards then one should average. That means less guild currency, lower chance at a fully crafted piece, and less shard shop currency. All in all I get crap because the ‘random’ garbage is either not 100% random or I just have awful luck here and should move to another game.

Kyno

Lrrr wrote: »

Kyno wrote: »

FailingCrab wrote: »

Kyno wrote: »

also, your statement about hitting 1, 7 times in a row, is not accurate. the number you hit or the repeated sequence doesn't matter, statistically speaking you could never hit 1 and still end up with an average above 25.

Maybe I'm being a derp here - what are you saying?

1, 50, 48. Average is 33.

The OP stated he would need to hit 1 seven times in a row to hit the 50th percentile. Since his sample is already 38, that would make the total sample 45.

Random placement doesnt mean that after 50 raids everyone in the guild would take a single position, there is no limitation on the sample size.

I am simply saying that he needs a larger sample size and that a sequence of any placement is not necessary for him to have the correct average over time.

Kyno
You aren’t wrong that the sample size is small, but I think just because I started tracking it, one should in theory assume that I felt like my average ranking was lower than it should be prior to tracking it. This has just continued to show that my ranks aren’t in line.

I’m fine if the Devs want to say it’s 100% random. Then it’s just bad luck, but they have not confirmed that.

—————-

As to why it matters for those who ask, zero ranks prior to the raid in Rancor largely determine final ranks and thus raid rewards. When your entire guild can solo a raid, and you average a late spot, you get that spots rewards. In theory, with everything equal one should average 25 if all 50 entered the raid. I’m at 29.93 of 44.68 based on the time I take the data in a sample size of 28 (since I started tracking the total entrants from my guild).

Point being in Rancor content, I tend to get far lower rewards then one should average. That means less guild currency, lower chance at a fully crafted piece, and less shard shop currency. All in all I get **** because the ‘random’ garbage is either not 100% random or I just have awful luck here and should move to another game.

There is no reason for it to not be random. They have stated its random.

As your sample size grows, I'm sure this will prove out the point, but there will always be some variance if you are not getting all 50 members to place, this will cause you to need a larger sample size to get to that actual average.