Introducing Pack Probabilities [MEGA]

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Replies

  • JDIII
    1351 posts Member
    Like we need this info, lol. The drop rates are garbage, always was, always will be!
  • scuba
    12142 posts Member
    JDIII wrote: »
    Like we need this info, lol. The drop rates are garbage, always was, always will be!

    Exactly.
  • Warp3dM1nd
    144 posts Member
    edited September 2018
    Yet nothing but silence. They will have to be forced to show us. They don't have a choice unless they are trying artificially raise the rates to make it look like they are giving a fair chance but if they are stupid enough to do that then they really will be in trouble for fraudulent practices. The report that the group I put together has already been forwarded to Google.

    I had my mom type it up since she teaches business and statistics so it's not some half illiterate piece of work. It is documented every step of the way with pictures before and after so nobody (CG/EA) can cry false. It clearly shows the drop percents for shards in Hard Nodes has went down.

    The drop rate was 10% to 15% on 5x run less if toon and ship is on same node. Now with the introduction of 8x that number dropped down to roughly 6%. So yeah they pulled the classic bait and switch. " Oh look guys we increased the amount of node runs!" While laughing behind the scenes that the drop percentages haven't changed so all it did was increase their crystal inflow which equals money.

    They appease most of the masses who thinks it's a good thing while the small minority of us realized it just made matters worse without them increasing the actually shard drop percentage.

    *edit* I added some stuff my group hasn't yet calculated percentages on outside of HN. Correcting my mistake..
    Post edited by Warp3dM1nd on
  • Mahbrethir wrote: »
    Holy ****.... I can't believe they're actually doing this finally.

    With the advent of the GDPR, they have no choice.
    Leader: Grey Area 51 - My Squads: https://swgoh.gg/p/716522998/
  • How is it there is a better chance to pull 330 shards from a marquee pack (0.1%) than getting 220 shards?(0.02%)
  • Mr_Sausage wrote: »
    How is it there is a better chance to pull 330 shards from a marquee pack (0.1%) than getting 220 shards?(0.02%)

    It's really not better it just mean the probability of it happening is about as likely as Zaphod busting in with the Heart of Gold and changing it to something that might actually be obtainable.

    "Here you really need to drink some pints, lots of pints! Also peanuts!"



  • DuneSeaFarmer
    2999 posts Member
    edited September 2018
    Having to shell out of the game and download a pdf, reminds me of the opening scene in the book "Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy"

    "But the plans were on display…”
    “On display? I eventually had to go down to the cellar to find them.”
    “That’s the display department.”
    “With a flashlight.”
    “Ah, well, the lights had probably gone.”
    “So had the stairs.”
    “But look, you found the notice, didn’t you?”
    “Yes,” said Arthur, “yes I did. It was on display in the bottom of a locked filing cabinet stuck in a disused lavatory with a sign on the door saying ‘Beware of the Leopard.”
    Leader: Grey Area 51 - My Squads: https://swgoh.gg/p/716522998/
  • ab1m1zrk43d7.png

    So there is a .10% chance of 145 shards OR 330? Huh?
    Leader: Grey Area 51 - My Squads: https://swgoh.gg/p/716522998/
  • ab1m1zrk43d7.png

    So there is a .10% chance of 145 shards OR 330? Huh?

    Not really, there is a .2% chance of getting either 145 OR 330 from any single purchase.

    Think of it this way. When you buy a pack, you roll a single 1d10,000, then:

    your roll <= 1924, you get 10 shards
    1924 < your roll <= 5772, you get 12 shards
    5772 < your roll <= 8658, you get 15 shards
    8658 < your roll <= 9620, you get 20 shards
    9620 < your roll <= 9861, you get 25 shards

    In other words, in 98.61% of the cases, you get 25 shards or less (and most likely less: in 57% of the cases you get 10 or 12 shards). The remaining 1.4% chance is distributed as follows:

    9841 < your roll <= 9957, you get 50 shards
    9957 < your roll <= 9976, you get 80 shards
    9976 < your roll <= 9986, you get 145 shards
    9986 < your roll <= 9991, you get 230 shards
    9991 < your roll <= 10,001, you get 330 shards

    Clearly there's a rounding error somewhere in those probabilities they posted (probably their code looks like this, but because their randon number generator starts at 0, whereas (ficticious) 10,000 sided dice start at 1, the mistake isn't as immediately obvious that they are dividing by 10,001 rather than by 10,000, but the difference is small enough that it doesn't matter for our purposes.

    Now, if you want to know what the chance is of getting either 145 OR 330 shards, you can see this happens if you roll between 9976 and 9986 OR between 9991 and 10,001, in other words, 10/10,001 outcomes give you 145 shards and 10/10,001 outcomes give you 330 shards, so (10 + 10)/10,001 = 0.2% chance of getting 145 or 330 shards.
  • Cornholio
    6 posts Member
    edited September 2018
    Warp3dM1nd wrote: »
    Yet nothing but silence. They will have to be forced to show us. They don't have a choice unless they are trying artificially raise the rates to make it look like they are giving a fair chance but if they are **** enough to do that then they really will be in trouble for fraudulent practices. The report that the group I put together has already been forwarded to Google.

    I had my mom type it up since she teaches business and statistics so it's not some half illiterate piece of work. It is documented every step of the way with pictures before and after so nobody (CG/EA) can cry false. It clearly shows the drop percents for shards in Hard Nodes, Cantina, Ship, and even the high value gear on the nodes.

    Outside of a few Cantina runs the drop rate was 10% to 15% on 5x run less if toon and ship is on same node. Now with the introduction of 8x that number dropped down to roughly 6%. So yeah they pulled the classic bait and switch. " Oh look guys we increased the amount of node runs!" While laughing behind the scenes that the drop percentages haven't changed so all it did was increase their crystal inflow which equals money.

    They appease most of the masses who thinks it's a good thing while the small minority of us realized it just made matters worse without them increasing the actually shard drop percentage.

    Could you provide some of the numbers and data you came up with for Cantina? And maybe share your statistics, sample size, and observations so we can understand the quality of the data?

    I documented exactly 4001 cantina sims for the probailities of shards and ability mats across all energy costs and graphed their distributions in excel and came up with very consistent drop rates over the course of several months. Cantina shard drop rates across hundreds of sims from 8, 10, 12, and 16 energy cost nodes fell between 29.19-33.39% with an average of 32.32%. I don’t have extended data on hard nodes but I know it is lower than Cantina. I can provide details on ability mat drop rates if people are interested or want to see the hard data. Interesting observation from the data is that 16 energy nodes in Cantina drop purple mats drop at approximately 12x the rate (26.67%) vs. 8 energy nodes (2.23%). Shard drop rates appear to be (and likely are) consistent across all costs, although I would be hesitant to set that in stone as I know my sample size is still too small to model the rng distribution function with complete accuracy.
  • Cornholio wrote: »
    Warp3dM1nd wrote: »
    Yet nothing but silence. They will have to be forced to show us. They don't have a choice unless they are trying artificially raise the rates to make it look like they are giving a fair chance but if they are **** enough to do that then they really will be in trouble for fraudulent practices. The report that the group I put together has already been forwarded to Google.

    I had my mom type it up since she teaches business and statistics so it's not some half illiterate piece of work. It is documented every step of the way with pictures before and after so nobody (CG/EA) can cry false. It clearly shows the drop percents for shards in Hard Nodes, Cantina, Ship, and even the high value gear on the nodes.

    Outside of a few Cantina runs the drop rate was 10% to 15% on 5x run less if toon and ship is on same node. Now with the introduction of 8x that number dropped down to roughly 6%. So yeah they pulled the classic bait and switch. " Oh look guys we increased the amount of node runs!" While laughing behind the scenes that the drop percentages haven't changed so all it did was increase their crystal inflow which equals money.

    They appease most of the masses who thinks it's a good thing while the small minority of us realized it just made matters worse without them increasing the actually shard drop percentage.

    Could you provide some of the numbers and data you came up with for Cantina? And maybe share your statistics, sample size, and observations so we can understand the quality of the data?

    I documented exactly 4001 cantina sims for the probailities of shards and ability mats across all energy costs and graphed their distributions in excel and came up with very consistent drop rates over the course of several months. Cantina shard drop rates across hundreds of sims from 8, 10, 12, and 16 energy cost nodes fell between 29.19-33.39% with an average of 32.32%. I don’t have extended data on hard nodes but I know it is lower than Cantina. I can provide details on ability mat drop rates if people are interested or want to see the hard data. Interesting observation from the data is that 16 energy nodes in Cantina drop purple mats drop at approximately 12x the rate (26.67%) vs. 8 energy nodes (2.23%). Shard drop rates appear to be (and likely are) consistent across all costs, although I would be hesitant to set that in stone as I know my sample size is still too small to model the rng distribution function with complete accuracy.

    The Cantina was a mistype it was meant to be hardnode. I assumed you would have figured that out reading further with 5x baseline. Then me talking about the increase from 5 to 8. We haven't tackled the Cantina and high gear piece drop rate yet. But I do know I ran 32 runs on veteran wookie the last 2 days and got 3 shards. Maybe it was a bad RNG day. I can say there has been days where I got as many 7 more often then not it's between 0 and 5. I did Wiggs before the veteran which is a low Cantina tier and out of 16 runs got 0 shards.

    Can I ask when you did your study because everybody that kept telling me it was 30% shard drop rate was from months ago. That certainly isn't the case now. I personally believe and alot of others on here and Reddit think they have lowered the percentage chance drop rate across the board for awhile. I can't pin down the exact date by no means but from when I started to now the toon shard drop rate on nodes has went down. It actually seems the ship hard nodes have better shard drop rates but since I have only done bast a few time I can't say for sure.

    We took 40 people and could have probably had 60 or more because more came out of the wood work as they heard about it. We broke 20 down into the 5x hard node 3 different node groups. 10 did 10x hard node 3 different node and the other 10 did 15x hard node 3 different hard nodes. Then we took pictures of the Toons of on the HN we had picked for our run. Each person had their choice of a different HN. Then we set a month as our end line. We took pics before and after the run.

    I picked DN Sion and Baze and as you can see I have yet to unlock base which is beyond ridiculous. 50 shards should be obtainable within a month doing 5 runs a day and I'm currently sitting at 35 and I had none before starting the study. I purposefully picked him as my 3rd since I hadn't unlocked him so it would be a perfect example.

    When the numbers came out surprisingly the 5x node group had higher percentage drop rate 10 to 15 percent.
    There is a caveat though if the HN shares a node with a ship it goes down. I probably got triple the KR ship shards than of Sion.

    The 10x groups percentages dropped lower and the 15x even lower then that. The numbers we were seeing at the 15x was down right criminal. It wasn't rare for them to do a 15 run and come away with 0 to 3 shards.

    I will go back an edit the post to say hardnode since we haven't attempted the the Cantina or the High Gear drops yet. It does read like we did this. Since my mom went the whole nine yards. She teach business and statistics in college she went hog wild with it and it turned into a 40+ page deal with the pics of before and after of the Toons showing the increase or no increase of the shard count. The last thing we wanted was for someone to try and cry false.

  • EA_Lanna
    623 posts EA Community Manager
    edited September 2018
    I've had to remove a few posts derailing from the thread topic. This is not a discussion on loot boxes or FIFA. Should it continue to derail, we'll have to follow-up with members individually for breaking the rules. Please respect others looking to use this space for discussing pack probability information.
  • ~ $10 for 7 shards of Jango. Lol!
  • There two things that affect this, The Law of Large Numbers and our Brain. And our Brain always would win.
  • Will this include the probability of bad game design and blind ignorance to nerf purchased items into oblivion in the future?
  • 3pourr2 wrote: »
    You know they raised some of those stats before they released this.

    Yep
  • VoodooKing
    100 posts Member
    edited October 2018
    CG was forced to put up the pack probabilities because people were filing refunds in Itunes/AppStore claiming that the probabilities were not shown when they made the purchase. Apple/Google were granting refunds based on this.
    Post edited by VoodooKing on
  • DarthRiker
    5 posts Member
    edited October 2018
    @cgcarrie @CG_SBCrumb Just a quick gripe, but I feel like the faction pack for old republic is not an equal probability to be any of the old republic toons. I have gotten Bastilla and Jolee many more times than any of the other toons.
    Post edited by DarthRiker on
  • Sewpot
    1063 posts Member
    DarthRiker wrote: »
    Just a quick gripe, but I feel like the faction pack for old republic is not an equal probability to be any of the old republic toons. I have gotten Bastilla and Jolee many more times than any of the other toons.

    That’s the one probability they won’t show is what character you will most- least get. Just the amount range.
  • @CG_Carrie FYA.. there are no pack probabilities listed for "Ewok Gear Pack".
  • Seriously already slipping??
  • yg6x7hymnllo.jpg
    Have had this since last Friday after playing grand arena. Alley code 583 942 148 have done everything to try and fix and what EA Support have suggested and I still get only this message. Please help!
  • Anyone see the jango Thread that Ahnold posted where he spent over300$ for 7 *. Also why is it more in canada and we also get charged with a conversion as well? packs int eh states are 9.99. Up here they are 13.99 (canadian) so more like 15 after conversion.
  • Anyone hungry for balogna? Because I got a bounty hunter pack full of baloney this morning.
    gsu53cwj2jyd.jpg
  • Wow pack probabilities. Here's my experience with pack probabilities. Everytime they're launched I'll do 1 everyday and receive the least amount that I could possibly get. Out of all the omega and ship packs I've only received more then the lowest possible 3 times. It's a joke. They want you to believe you'll get 25 omegas and 50 mk3 ability mats but it comes down to 9 omegas and 20 mk3 ability mats. I get 1 to 3 zetas a month from the ship challenge packs. Every person in grand arena that I've fought has had 8 to 12 more zetas then me. In other words it's a joke. It's like playing a slot machine for $50.00 and winning $1.00 everytime, and u keep playing because it says u can win $1 million.
  • @CG_SBCrumb @CG_Carrie bounty hunter ship package probabilities??
  • Yeah it’s great and all but how about making the released rates accurate? Is it really just odds that when you get the bounty hunter ship faction pack you get slave one and hounds tooth 10 times before an IG 2000 and Xanadu pop up?
    Feels like we’re still getting played and milked
  • No it's not odds. It's algorithms. Until we see the program algorithms we'll never know.
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