Drop rates changed in Cantina?

DarthJarX2

I have been farming Death trooper in cantina and I have spent 1600 energy since the new mod energy. That's an even 100 Sims, 2 at a time, and I have pulled 16 shards. I understand recency bias, but this is not a really small sample. I would understand some variance, but it would take an incredible streak to get to 33% rate that seems to be the norm. Has anyone else seen any change?

DarjeloSalas

No. Similar amount of Sims on Chirpa and he’s dropped pretty much bang on 30%. And 100 sims is a pretty small sample.

The 2 at a time thing isn’t relevant either.

The drops will be on a bell curve - you’ve been rather unlucky of late.

USAFmedic129

L33T is dropping 1 shard per 450 energy. Before the mod update I was getting 3-6 shards per refresh. Zeta fleet challenge has been 2 weeks straight with no zetas and only a single gold fighter upgrade.

DarthJarX2

DarjeloSalas wrote: »

No. Similar amount of Sims on Chirpa and he’s dropped pretty much bang on 30%. And 100 sims is a pretty small sample.

The 2 at a time thing isn’t relevant either.

The drops will be on a bell curve - you’ve been rather unlucky of late.

So what is your sample size? If you are going to say my stats are anomolous, can you provide some evidence? I will continue to track for the next 100 Sims as well, but it is something worth monitoring. You don't think CG might tweak drop rates on Cantina after introducing new energy to regulate the rate of aquiring characters?

WitnessedJarl

I monitored my drop rate on qira, 142 battles 67 shards ~47%

For L3-37 254 battles 69 shards ~27.2%

combined ~34%

Oberon1066

Is there any difference in how much you spend? I usually do 20 energy at a time, but would doing 100 in 1 go be any better / worse?

haysswa1

It's all rng dependant. It'll feel like you're never getting shards and you tend to forget when you do have a few good days. I'm guilty of that all the time and I kinda don't even pay attention to it any more lol. I just use my daily energy and get what I get. I rarely refresh either. People claim and have posted many many stats that prove the drop rate is the same. And it really doesn't matter if you pull one or ten at a time, there's no secret handshake/ritual that'll improve you're odds. And I think each pull has the 33% chance, I mean I guess. I'm no mathematical genius or statistical savant but if you think it's by amount of pulls you would get one for every 3, right? And everyone knows that doesn't happen lol. You could go days or weeks pulling 1 or 2 a day and then get a lucky 8 or 9 day. it balances out but it doesn't feel that way

Hammerhed

Rotate your simming #'s. Sim 1 cantina first, then sim 2 cantina (1, 2, 1, 2, etc...). I Usually get 1 shard with each chance. If you hit a dry streak then stop and click on another character or leave the Cantina, then go back to the character you were farming and do the 1 & 2.

ChrisSkywalker

This 30% you all keep regurgitating over and over was true in the past. It is much lower today.

Kyno

ChrisSkywalker wrote: »

This 30% you all keep regurgitating over and over was true in the past. It is much lower today.

@ChrisSkywalker I would love to see your data to support this.

The 30% that everyone states was based on data, which is why people feel comfortable stating it.

Kyno

Here is a recent post that is shows data still supports the 30% average.

EduardoCadav wrote: »

Sure thing, it's not a very clear way of presenting it, sorry. I added two columns that should help, the per battle drop rate as a % and the exact character node.

Hard nodes (5 battles a day)
energy | Shards Collected | days farming | delta (days) | per battle rate | Character

• 20 | 55 | 34 | -0.7 | 32.4% | Holdo
• 12 | 46 | 30 | -2.1 | 30.1% | Hoth Soldier
• 12 | 41 | 30 | -5.2 | 27.3% | Sabine
• 20 | 78 | 46 | +1.3 | 33.9% | Shoretrooper
• 20 | 24 | 14 | +0.5 | 34.3% | Wicket
• 20 | 23 | 14 | -0.1 | 32.9% | Baze

In terms of the time frame the OP mentioned the last 5 weeks. By coincidence I started these 6 farms right about that time. The "days farming" number is the number of days up to today of course so from just over 5 weeks for shore and two weeks for wicket and baze.

Hopefully that's more clear. On it's own I wouldn't want to predict the drop rate from such a small amount of data but together with a very strong prior from previous more extensive tracking indicating a drop rate of 30%-33% the numbers I'm seeing suggest no change. Hope it's helpful ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ sorry you seem to be seeing lower.

EDIT to add answer to question about ships: I'm only using ship energy for gear and I don't track any gear drops just hit sim and pray

enlguy

I know, dead thread, but was looking today because I haven't gotten ANY shard drops from level 8 of the Cantina recently. The only thing, @Kyno, about what you just posted, is that it uses data from LS/DS battles, and the OP specifically mentioned Cantina, and Cantina drop rate is what brought me to this thread. It seems screwingly low lately. This game certainly FEELS like it is increasingly screening people over. And there are DEFINITELY different rates for different characters. I can average 50% on Ezra and 15% on Bossk... that says something (and for the record, Ezra is the ONLY toon I get a good drop rate on in Cantina, Hera is mediocre, thank goodness, because she's my last star needed to 7* Thrawn). But from where I sit, the burden of proof is on those claiming it's all fine and dandy. Why don't THEY ever have data to back up the "it's still 30%" claim? I mean the above post shows nothing: if two weeks of farming Wicket is a useable sample size, then how can you say the people not getting 30% are in the wrong?! I get tired of this debate almost as much as I'm tired of people posting **** data and saying it supports the theory. It's like the Bible, you can use it to justify anything. Oh, it's 30% here, 20% there, 50% there, 5% over here. Until a long-term study is done, across a large sample of users, tracked over at least 6 months, let's say, we can't say **** about ****. I think it would be worth it for the community to come together on this one, get 1 million users to track all their data over several months and upload that somewhere for a person to compile. I am willing to be the one who complies the data if people are willing to make spreadsheets with Google Docs to share their data. I guess the trick is picking which toons to focus on, and spreading it out enough to measure more than just a couple, but ... let's say we use the vets, for example, and 1 million people track their shard drops on vets for six months (cause it'll probably take that long before you 7* them, and most people will want them for JTR), that's a start. Other toons who are regularly leveled to 7* would also serve as good markers. I don't know how to promote this sort of thing, without enough people taking part, it won't make a difference, but I for one would love to go to a dev and be like, "It's 10%, here's the proof," since this game is stupid enough without the drop rates.

Kyno

@enlguy it was the most recent example I had at the time. The drops have been recorded over large samples sizes and been shown to be 30% on all character spots.


If you feel something is off please feel free to post your data (in a new post). You dont need a long term study, just start with 1 toon and record every drop there, then keep doing that in each table for 2-3 toons and you can see for yourself. I dont know what sample sizes have been used previously, but a few 100 should give you a decent starting point.