Slicing probabilities

The more I slice, the more I suspect the system is rigged.

I have sliced about 20 mods with decent speed secondaries from blue/purple to gold. Only the very first one upgraded speed, the rest all upgraded a variety of other stuff. The chance of this happening is small if the chances are 25% for any secondary rolling an upgrade. And the fact that I am not the only one seeing this kind of "luck" makes my statistical brain go loops.

Is the chance to slice a stat conditioned upon how often it already upgraded? That would make your speed mods less likely to upgrade the more often they have already upgraded. And would be a particularly devious way to screw up the speed mod chances...

My first stab at this was to take the overall distribution of my gold mods. This corresponds very nicely with what I would expect if the upgrade chance was 25%. However, the vast majority of my gold mods are from pre-slicing times, when we are quite confident that the chances of upgrading were indeed uniform.

So we need more data, as I only remember (for sure) 6 of my slices. I have done quite a lot more, but don't remember which mods were sliced and which were already gold, so cannot include them. I have a spreadsheet, which I will keep updated with my slices, and if anybody has their own data, please post it here!

Here are the slices I remember:
1x (4, 1, 1, 1) mod to (5, 1, 1, 1) <-- hell yeah, speed! my first ever slice. from then on it was all useless.
1x (4, 1, 1, 1) mod to (4, 2, 1, 1)
2x (3, 1, 1, 1) mod to (3, 2, 1, 1) to (3, 2, 2 , 1)

To be clear: these are the numbers between brackets before the actual stats on the mods. I am not interested in the stat or the value of that stat, only in the number of times a stat was upgraded before, and after slicing.

Replies

  • Kyno
    32087 posts Moderator
    It doesnt seem to be any different than pre update.

    Did you get a lot of speed hits then?
  • Sigh. The system is not rigged.
  • As I said, I ran the stats from all my gold mods:

    The theoretical outcome for stats, assuming uniform probabilities:

    5 upgrades to a single stat: 0.25⁴ = 0.0039
    4 upgrades: 4x0.25³x0.75 = 0.0469
    3 upgrades: 6x0.25²x0.75² = 0.2109
    2 upgrades: 4x0.25x0.75³ = 0.4219
    1 upgrade: 0.75⁴ = 0.3164

    I have 153 gold mods (the vast majority from pre-slicing era), with the following stats distribution:
    5 upgrades: 1 (0.0016339869)
    4 upgrades 27 (0.0441176471)
    3 upgrades 140 (0.2287581699)
    2 upgrades 248 (0.4052287582)
    1 upgrade 196 (0.3202614379)

    This is very close to the theoretical outcome. And furthermore, the under representation of 4, 5 and 1 upgrades can even be explained by the fact that I tend to sell mods with bad speed. So if speed was showing but didn't upgrade, that mod might have been sold instead of leveled to full. But that explanation is not even necessary: this sample could easily have been drawn from the theoretical distribution.

    However, I am having quite particular bad luck with slicing. It could just be bad luck, or it could be a different system. Hence why I want data.
  • Way less scientifically and, as always the small sample size people like to throw around - but I'm up to 2 speed increases on the 20 mods I've increased. So I'm working with 10% on something that should be 25%.

    Funny we don't see that "one guy" who's complaining about way to many speed increases on his mods?
    #AcolyteShootsTwice
  • It's 25%. Luck happens. Stop claiming conspiracies, Alex Jones.
    Ceterum censeo Patientia esse meliat.
  • NicWester wrote: »
    It's 25%. Luck happens. Stop claiming conspiracies, Alex Jones.

    But... my tinfoil hat and pitchfork need some use!
  • I just had 3 in a row where the speed secondary upgraded. It's all probability.
  • With hundreds of thousands of people doing a random thing, the probability that a few of them will have something happen that is slightly statistically improbable over a tiny sample size is high. The probability that they will complain about it, and claim it's a conspiracy is 100%.
  • JacenRoe wrote: »
    With hundreds of thousands of people doing a random thing, the probability that a few of them will have something happen that is slightly statistically improbable over a tiny sample size is high. The probability that they will complain about it, and claim it's a conspiracy is 100%.

    This is correct. FWIW, I've been quite lucky with speed upgrades. A lot of my best speed mods have increased their speed once or twice.
  • NicWester wrote: »
    It's 25%. Luck happens. Stop claiming conspiracies, Alex Jones.

    You assume its 25%. The implied odds are 25%. Fact is it might not be 25%. Look at the "sneaky" probabilities in the packs. Would be nice if someone from CG could just confirm that their is no bias. Instead of players that have really no clue what the underling system is, claim its fine because they have seen good results.

    Honestly working like it is, slicing being so random is bad for game play. As being lucky and gainning 5 +20 speed mods vs just 1 can have a huge impact on your game play.

    The stat change to 6dot mods does help balance some of the secondary stats, but +flat speed is still far in away the best secondary upgrade. All the 6Dot change does is raise unpopular secondary stats to be on par with flat offense, i.e. 1% offense is about the same as +40 offense. But +5 speed is still far stronger then 40offense.
  • I'm not claiming. I'm asking for data. Of course there will be outliers. And it sucks that it's me. But it's good to know I'm an outlier. It means I can, over time, expect things to normalize. Even if it'll probably normalize when I'm upgrading crappy green mods, and they turn into mediocre blue mods instead.

    That said, in order to prove that it is indeed as you all say it is, what is wrong with giving me your slicing data to show that it is so! Sample bias and all, because maybe it's you 3 guys who had excellent luck who are the outliers...
  • I don't know that I would call it rigged but of course speed will be the least likely to upgrade again after a slice because speed is still the most important thing in this game. With that said they will always make the best the hardest to get. If speed is one of the secondaries there's not a 25% chance it will upgrade. I'm not sure what they set the % at for speed to upgrade but I can assure you it's not the same as other secondary stats but it is what it is...its like that for everybody so at least nobody has some kind of advantage.
  • My first 5 slices all went to speed, first four where a grey mod to gold (went from 5 to 23 speed), and the last one was a purple to gold (12-17)
  • LukeDukem8
    607 posts Member
    edited September 2018
    My first 5 slices all went to speed, first four where a grey mod to gold (went from 5 to 23 speed), and the last one was a purple to gold (12-17)

    This is what i dislike the most about the game, (and what i belive to be the cause of my quitting out of frustration) is someone can work equally hard and never see this result and others just fall into it. For the record, i am not saying the player who posted didnt earn or deserve the mod, just making a point).

    Which basically means those that get lucky are going to walk to the top of the arena and some will never get there b.c there is no way to earn the best mods.

    At least before i could farm my kittens off and eventually get a green mod that would proc speed for sure. Now my chances to proc speed have significantly reduced and with my luck, may never proc speed again.
  • LukeDukem8 wrote: »
    My first 5 slices all went to speed, first four where a grey mod to gold (went from 5 to 23 speed), and the last one was a purple to gold (12-17)

    This is what i dislike the most about the game, (and what i belive to be the cause of my quitting out of frustration) is someone can work equally hard and never see this result and others just fall into it. For the record, i am not saying the player who posted didnt earn or deserve the mod, just making a point).

    Which basically means those that get lucky are going to walk to the top of the arena and some will never get there b.c there is no way to earn the best mods.

    At least before i could farm my kittens off and eventually get a green mod that would proc speed for sure. Now my chances to proc speed have significantly reduced and with my luck, may never proc speed again.

    ^This.
  • I’d guess the odds of it upgrading are the same as before...less than 25% for sure. Before update my gold mods would upgrade everything other than speed most of the time. Slicing seems the same...very frustrating. I’d guess the probability to be around 10%
  • I don't think it's rigged, I've had decent luck, but I don't look a gift horse in the mouth. Just say thank you and be on your way.
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