Got an absolute 1 shard out of 32 sims

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  • USAFmedic129
    1538 posts Member
    edited September 2018
    Presaria wrote: »
    Why is the burden of proof on me? CG publishes pack probabilities now - which I very much applaud. How about publishing a weekly report on shard drops?

    They have data and it is an easy report to run......

    The burden is on you because you are making the claim. Anecdotal evidence is not “proof” of anything. And to be clear anecdotal means based on your personal experience and is not reliable solely as evidence. It must be corroborated with facts and other evidence to be shown to be true.

    You state that a company is manipulating payouts to spur capital gains. Prove it. You are claiming it, so the burden rests solely with you. It’s not for anyone else to prove. And if you can prove it there are venues and outlets to seek satisfaction from.
    Post edited by USAFmedic129 on
  • I have been telling people that the drop rate is 10% to 15% and even worse as you do more runs. Our study was conducted before the increase to 8X on HN. It was 10% to 15% at the standard 5X. As the runs increased the percentages dropped at 10X to 5% to 10% and lower at 15X to staggering 3% to 6%. The runs also showed a decrease if it shared the HN with a toon and ship. I have gotten 3X the amount of KR shuttle shards then Sion.

    Yesterday did 16X run on Sion and got 2 shards and 8 ship shards. They have lowered the rates all around I believe or upped the RNG factor or whatever. The end result regardless is lowered shard drops. Yes some get lucky but I believe if everybody in the game actually posted their drop rates we would see a tremendous drop in shards. I ran the veterans and have gotten to 4 shards or lower out 20 runs but the group I work with hasnt tackled the cantina or high gear on nodes. So I cant confirm the shard drops for them.
  • Warp3dM1nd wrote: »
    I have been telling people that the drop rate is 10% to 15% and even worse as you do more runs. Our study was conducted before the increase to 8X on HN. It was 10% to 15% at the standard 5X. As the runs increased the percentages dropped at 10X to 5% to 10% and lower at 15X to staggering 3% to 6%. The runs also showed a decrease if it shared the HN with a toon and ship. I have gotten 3X the amount of KR shuttle shards then Sion.

    Yesterday did 16X run on Sion and got 2 shards and 8 ship shards. They have lowered the rates all around I believe or upped the RNG factor or whatever. The end result regardless is lowered shard drops. Yes some get lucky but I believe if everybody in the game actually posted their drop rates we would see a tremendous drop in shards. I ran the veterans and have gotten to 4 shards or lower out 20 runs but the group I work with hasnt tackled the cantina or high gear on nodes. So I cant confirm the shard drops for them.

    Fake news with insignificant data, is still fake news no matter how many times you repeat yourself
  • Austin9370 wrote: »
    Just leaving this here for the the conspiracy theorists...

    https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/mathematics/18-05-introduction-to-probability-and-statistics-spring-2014/
    It would only be 'fixed' if you never occasionally saw low drop rates...there is no reason to believe the drop rate ever deviates from the generally accepted 33% drop rate

    You don’t seem to understand at all. The only drop rate matters is the drop rate in these 7 days. In longer term, everyone will have Bossk 7*ed eventually so nobody cares about the average drop rate over time.

    Bossk is the key to be able to complete tier VII. Why did you even mention the conspiracy theories...
  • Fredy5
    328 posts Member
    Everybody knows that EA forgot the word "drop" in drop rate. Otherwise, they would publish the odds. But 0,000001% is not interesting in a marketing way.
    God Bless Belgium
  • Yesterday I simmed it Bossk 16 times... 12 shards. Today it was 7/16... Still no complaints here.
  • Edward
    651 posts Member
    Austin9370 wrote: »
    Edward wrote: »
    Austin9370 wrote: »
    Just leaving this here for the the conspiracy theorists...

    https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/mathematics/18-05-introduction-to-probability-and-statistics-spring-2014/
    It would only be 'fixed' if you never occasionally saw low drop rates...there is no reason to believe the drop rate ever deviates from the generally accepted 33% drop rate

    You don’t seem to understand at all. The only drop rate matters is the drop rate in these 7 days. In longer term, everyone will have Bossk 7*ed eventually so nobody cares about the average drop rate over time.

    Bossk is the key to be able to complete tier VII. Why did you even mention the conspiracy theories...

    I don't know if it's of any use of arguing with dumb, but here I go...

    The drop rate on these 7 days is no diffrent than any other days is my point. There is no conspiracy to stealth manipupate the node drop rate. It's the same as it was a week ago. You'll have some good drops and some poor. Why you're talking about everyone eventually being 7* Bossk means nothing.

    People with less than average intelligence understand, you don’t. Who cares about the drop rate after the legendary event ends, I don’t. I only care about the drop rate in these 7 days.

    Because I only need less than 70 shards, if drop rate can reach average, with 32 sims, I should be able to 7* Bossk easily before the event ends. I don’t give a **** how good or bad the drop rate is going to be after the event ends or was before the event was announced.

    More important, I didn’t ask for good drop rate, just average drop rate should give me 7* Bossk.
  • Edward
    651 posts Member
    edited October 2018
    Austin9370 wrote: »
    Edward wrote: »
    Austin9370 wrote: »
    Edward wrote: »
    Austin9370 wrote: »
    Just leaving this here for the the conspiracy theorists...

    https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/mathematics/18-05-introduction-to-probability-and-statistics-spring-2014/
    It would only be 'fixed' if you never occasionally saw low drop rates...there is no reason to believe the drop rate ever deviates from the generally accepted 33% drop rate

    You don’t seem to understand at all. The only drop rate matters is the drop rate in these 7 days. In longer term, everyone will have Bossk 7*ed eventually so nobody cares about the average drop rate over time.

    Bossk is the key to be able to complete tier VII. Why did you even mention the conspiracy theories...

    I don't know if it's of any use of arguing with dumb, but here I go...

    The drop rate on these 7 days is no diffrent than any other days is my point. There is no conspiracy to stealth manipupate the node drop rate. It's the same as it was a week ago. You'll have some good drops and some poor. Why you're talking about everyone eventually being 7* Bossk means nothing.

    People with less than average intelligence understand, you don’t. Who cares about the drop rate after the legendary event ends, I don’t. I only care about the drop rate in these 7 days.

    Because I only need less than 70 shards, if drop rate can reach average, with 32 sims, I should be able to 7* Bossk easily before the event ends. I don’t give a **** how good or bad the drop rate is going to be after the event ends or was before the event was announced.

    More important, I didn’t ask for good drop rate, just average drop rate should give me 7* Bossk.

    "The problem with educating **** people was that they didn't know they were ****."

    Chuck Palahniuk

    Play too much bad game ruins your mind. Go find something else to do that can help you improve your quality of life. I have been trying to reduce play time in this game to the minimum.
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