My perspective on probability
I don't want to talk about scientific terms or formulas or algorithms or any of that technicality.
I just want to express, based on my own experience and observation, what different percentages can yield. Keep in mind percentages are not a exact science. Let me explain
- You have 100 energy and you are farming a piece of gear which costs 10 energy each. You use all of it only get 1, your automatic assumption is that the yield percentage is 10%, but this is far from the truth.
Most everyone here would agree that to provide reliable stats on percentages one should test in the thousands, but of course nobody has time (or resources) to do/test this (perhaps an energy hoarder can provide some insight, Naecabon comes to mind).
On the above scenario we establish that the drop rate of item X is 10%. On the next session, Johnny then spends 100 energy and gets zero of item X, he refreshes and spends another 120 energy and nothing, and concludes that the game is broken and exclaims "OMFGWTFBBQ!!!"
Another day goes by and Johnny uses another 100 energy this time around he gets this pattern:
1. --; 2 --; 3 item X; 4 --; 5 item X; 6 --; 7 --; 8 --; 9 item X; 10 --
As you can see, if you combine the 3 sessions, the "AVERAGE" comes out closer to 10% than if you just take into account one session.
Well, this has been my experience, sometimes the item I want just doesn't drop, but on a later session I can get even 3-4 of the same item in a row.
Now you can call it, Law of averages, Murphy's Law, bad luck, or any other superstition, but in the end, in the long run the percentage of an item being dropped averages out the more you farm it.
I think people tend to forget when they get 4-5 items in one session and expect that same luck next session.
Also keep in mind that if an item in fact has 10% drop rate, and you get 5 of them in one session of 100 energy, don't expect the item to drop for another 400-500 energy, which seems to me what some people are reporting.
In general, purple gear like hairdryer and handcuffs drop about 15-20% of the time for me, which would probably translate to this:
1. --; 2 item X; 3 --; 4 --; 5 item X; 6 --; 7 --; 8 --; 9 --; 10 --
1. --; 2 --; 3 item X; 4 --; 5 --; 6 --; 7 --; 8 item X; 9 --; 10 --
1. --; 2 --; 3 --; 4 --; 5 item X; 6 --; 7 item X; 8 --; 9 item X; 10 --
1. --; 2 --; 3 --; 4 --; 5 --; 6 --; 7 --; 8 --; 9 --; 10 --
1. --; 2 --; 3 item X; 4 --; 5 item X; 6 --; 7 --; 8 --; 9 item X; 10 --
But could also go like this:
1. --; 2 item X; 3 --; 4 item X; 5 item X; 6 --; 7 item X; 8 --; 9 --; 10 item X
1. --; 2 --; 3 --; 4 --; 5 --; 6 --; 7 --; 8 --; 9 --; 10 --
1. --; 2 --; 3 --; 4 --; 5 item X; 6 --; 7 item X; 8 item X; 9 item X; 10 --
1. --; 2 --; 3 --; 4 --; 5 --; 6 --; 7 --; 8 --; 9 --; 10 --
1. --; 2 --; 3 --; 4 --; 5 --; 6 --; 7 --; 8 --; 9 item X; 10 --
Anybody else experience this?
I just want to express, based on my own experience and observation, what different percentages can yield. Keep in mind percentages are not a exact science. Let me explain
- You have 100 energy and you are farming a piece of gear which costs 10 energy each. You use all of it only get 1, your automatic assumption is that the yield percentage is 10%, but this is far from the truth.
Most everyone here would agree that to provide reliable stats on percentages one should test in the thousands, but of course nobody has time (or resources) to do/test this (perhaps an energy hoarder can provide some insight, Naecabon comes to mind).
On the above scenario we establish that the drop rate of item X is 10%. On the next session, Johnny then spends 100 energy and gets zero of item X, he refreshes and spends another 120 energy and nothing, and concludes that the game is broken and exclaims "OMFGWTFBBQ!!!"
Another day goes by and Johnny uses another 100 energy this time around he gets this pattern:
1. --; 2 --; 3 item X; 4 --; 5 item X; 6 --; 7 --; 8 --; 9 item X; 10 --
As you can see, if you combine the 3 sessions, the "AVERAGE" comes out closer to 10% than if you just take into account one session.
Well, this has been my experience, sometimes the item I want just doesn't drop, but on a later session I can get even 3-4 of the same item in a row.
Now you can call it, Law of averages, Murphy's Law, bad luck, or any other superstition, but in the end, in the long run the percentage of an item being dropped averages out the more you farm it.
I think people tend to forget when they get 4-5 items in one session and expect that same luck next session.
Also keep in mind that if an item in fact has 10% drop rate, and you get 5 of them in one session of 100 energy, don't expect the item to drop for another 400-500 energy, which seems to me what some people are reporting.
In general, purple gear like hairdryer and handcuffs drop about 15-20% of the time for me, which would probably translate to this:
1. --; 2 item X; 3 --; 4 --; 5 item X; 6 --; 7 --; 8 --; 9 --; 10 --
1. --; 2 --; 3 item X; 4 --; 5 --; 6 --; 7 --; 8 item X; 9 --; 10 --
1. --; 2 --; 3 --; 4 --; 5 item X; 6 --; 7 item X; 8 --; 9 item X; 10 --
1. --; 2 --; 3 --; 4 --; 5 --; 6 --; 7 --; 8 --; 9 --; 10 --
1. --; 2 --; 3 item X; 4 --; 5 item X; 6 --; 7 --; 8 --; 9 item X; 10 --
But could also go like this:
1. --; 2 item X; 3 --; 4 item X; 5 item X; 6 --; 7 item X; 8 --; 9 --; 10 item X
1. --; 2 --; 3 --; 4 --; 5 --; 6 --; 7 --; 8 --; 9 --; 10 --
1. --; 2 --; 3 --; 4 --; 5 item X; 6 --; 7 item X; 8 item X; 9 item X; 10 --
1. --; 2 --; 3 --; 4 --; 5 --; 6 --; 7 --; 8 --; 9 --; 10 --
1. --; 2 --; 3 --; 4 --; 5 --; 6 --; 7 --; 8 --; 9 item X; 10 --
Anybody else experience this?
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Replies
This is called The Gambler's Fallacy
"I don't want to talk about scientific terms or formulas or algorithms or any of that technicality."
Then this entire exercise is is called "totally subjective feelings".
Everyone needs to just get over it.
Seriously. Harden up.
It is designed that way to make you feel frustrated and want to speed up your game, the only way to do that is to pay. If you don't want to pay then you can and should expect very little advancement.
The sense of entitlement is disgusting. The lack of logic and the way feelings are put before logic is seriously disturbing. You're a weird bunch you 'increase the drop rate' whiners.
Given a 1/3 shard drop rate:
If I get 0/9, then I am sad and expect a 3/9 drop rate in the future.
If I get 5/9, then I am happy and expect a 3/9 drop rate in the future.
But it is what it is and more would probably complain about the higher cost.
Why yes thank you!
Assuming the computer coding is written such that each battle is an independent event.
You know I am kidding.. I love plutificamation and statistcamagraphs!
It would be difficult, cruel, and pointless for it not to be.
Just playing devil's advocate.
While tempted to spend more crystals for refreshes to continue my "lucky streak", my expectations remain 1/3. So, I'll wait until the next reset.
+11
It certainly should be, but there's been suggestions of breaking hot and cold streaks by checking if(no item in N tries); give item. Then there would have to be a feedback to the generation algorithm to account for "streak snaps".
I'm really in the camp of "it is what it is". I've farmed purple laptops, purple blow dryers, purple horse shoes and red balloons, and found the pot of gold
Also, gimme all the free gears.
Even tossing a coin for 10 times and ending up tails, it won't increase the chance to be heads the 11th time.
@Fher Nice post about statistics but keep in mind that RNG (Random number generator) isn't really random when it come's to coding. If the algorithm that generates RNG is bad, then the RNG will be bad.
It's not an assumption. The word random by definition means that each battle will be independent.
While what you said is true that is not what I am arguing. My point was it could be programmed in a way that the game keeps count of how many "failures" (not getting the desired gear) in a row happen. Then if the number exceeds a defined value, like maybe 20 failures in a row, the game could either up the drop rate until you get the gear or give it to you on your next go. Obviously this means it's no longer independent which is what I was getting at. Tossing a coin should always be independent of previous attempts unless you are altering the coin based on previous attempts.
True and the devs have said that before but they have also said that they were looking at ways to reduce cold streaks. If they did reduce the cold streaks similar to a way I described above then it would not truly be random.
lol oops! Autocorrect gone rogue!
There are enough users that 1/1 million losing streaks happen every day.
I stopped to read here.
I agree with what you say, but if the RNG doesn't work they should change the algorithm instead of adding additional lines of code to check the drop count.