Someone in my guild posted this on discord yesterday. If you searched for that specific character it won't say bonus but it's still in multiples of 2. If you would just go to the node mission would have bonus underneath. I tested it myself
Someone in my guild posted this on discord yesterday. If you searched for that specific character it won't say bonus but it's still in multiples of 2. If you would just go to the node mission would have bonus underneath. I tested it myself
Yesterday in 27 battles trying for stun guns left me with 6 salvage. Now its not a massive sample size, its an 11% drop rate. That's terrible. Cantina has been about average. Mod battles has been fine if I run a min of 9 battles at once. Only once has that still been bad
Yesterday in 27 battles trying for stun guns left me with 6 salvage. Now its not a massive sample size, its an 11% drop rate. That's terrible. Cantina has been about average. Mod battles has been fine if I run a min of 9 battles at once. Only once has that still been bad
Small sample.
Edit: I mean, " it's not a massive sample", should be it's an insignificant sample.
Yesterday in 27 battles trying for stun guns left me with 6 salvage. Now its not a massive sample size, its an 11% drop rate. That's terrible. Cantina has been about average. Mod battles has been fine if I run a min of 9 battles at once. Only once has that still been bad
I remember reading at one point that the drop rate for purple gear on nodes about 10% so, if my memory is true, that’s right about normal.
Yesterday in 27 battles trying for stun guns left me with 6 salvage. Now its not a massive sample size, its an 11% drop rate. That's terrible. Cantina has been about average. Mod battles has been fine if I run a min of 9 battles at once. Only once has that still been bad
I remember reading at one point that the drop rate for purple gear on nodes about 10% so, if my memory is true, that’s right about normal.
My mistake. Purple drop rate is 20%. But regardless, 27 sims is an insignificant sample size. Like somebody said earlier in the thread: if I flip a coin 100 times and only get 15 tails, does that mean my coin is broken?
I am so happy with the double drops. I can tell im really getting a profit here.😂
But really, is this some sort joke or scam or does the double drops still has to be activated on my account?
"Double Drops" does not make things drop more often, it means IF you receive a drop the amount of the drop is doubled. i.e if 1 shard drops you will get 2. The drop rates are not effected. I have made full passes and no shards drop at all.
Well I have gotten 0 shards when using multiple 120 energy refreshes, multiple times each day, when simming 2 at a time, so far. On every table BUT the mod slicing table! (perhaps mod slicing salvage isn't effected like toon shards seem to be).
That is very oddly horrible RNG, but is consistent with the type I experience during these events, which makes me suspect they nerf the shard drop rates during the 2x events.
As for people getting shards, well if you are spending more crystals during these events then you usually do, you should be getting more shards just due to the fact that your doing more sims, but it might not be very efficient (if they are nerfing the drop rate during the event).
Plus certain nodes may have better drop rates then others (sabine was horrible back in the day), I would not be surprised if CG did this for toons that don't get a lot of use.
Your mantra only proves that you have a huge confirmation bias
There are a lot of screenshots showing in this thread that drop rates are not nerfed
I can counter your confirmation bias with selection bias to prove that drop rates are doubled during double drops.
First have you never heard of the VW disel emmisons scandal?
And it is pretty easy for a "big" company like CG to have different RNG profiles for different events. And it wouldn't be a scam, because afaik they have never gaureenteed the drop rate of shards (it is only the store crates drop rates they gave the probabilities for) so it wouldn't be unreasonable to consider they would do something like this.
Second, is 30-40+ sims per table, over 3 tables, over 2 days, statistically insignificant? I don't think so, but if your a statistician please provide a link to a free text book showing that it isn't significant (pretty sure those amounts of samples are significant if the shard drop rate has a normal p.d.f. , but based on the store crates drop rates it doesn't look like CG's pseudo-RNG is a normal distribution... what most people would think of as totally random chance).
Third, yes saying the drops are better or worse is all anecdotal. But you saying to my response that it is all anecdotal is misleading other readers since you are not mentioning the statements saying they are getting better shards is also all ancedotal. This goes to everyone that tries to use "Its just anecdotal" as a counter agreement to a point they don't agree with.
The only real way to prove it one way or another is to do statistically significant testing during the event in question before the game reloads/updates and thus code is changed, as historical performance doesn't predict future results (especially when we are talking about different pRNG profiles possibly being used).
Fourth, there are many other ways poor results for some and not for others can happen, that isn't just "oh you are just having bad RNG" (every time the 2x events come out) or "CG is being nefarious", I will conceede that. Bugs with pRNG seed for example. Or a pRNG sequence that gets reset every code update and has a day or two long, lower then average initial sequence.
But that doesn't mean the experience of the people that seem to be "getting screwed" is not happening. Just because you aren't seeing it doesn't mean it's proof others can't be seeing it (see third point).
P.S. My awesome mantra doesn't prove that I have confirmation bias.. it just proves I have a sense of humour!
(And a technique to avoid throwing my phone when I keep getting 0s... lol) "Two times zero is zerooo0"
- Anrath, Nov. '18
[/quote]
"Double Drops" does not make things drop more often, it means IF you receive a drop the amount of the drop is doubled. i.e if 1 shard drops you will get 2. The drop rates are not effected. I have made full passes and no shards drop at all.
[/quote]
This statement completely explains why double drops should be appreciated, taken advantage of, and why they don’t happen often. FREE SHARDS!!!! Zero times zero has always and will continue to be ZERO. Double drops rule because 1 and up is double shards! Seems very simple to me.
"Double Drops" does not make things drop more often, it means IF you receive a drop the amount of the drop is doubled. i.e if 1 shard drops you will get 2. The drop rates are not effected. I have made full passes and no shards drop at all.
[/quote]
This statement completely explains why double drops should be appreciated, taken advantage of, and why they don’t happen often. FREE SHARDS!!!! Zero times zero has always and will continue to be ZERO. Double drops rule because 1 and up is double shards! Seems very simple to me. [/quote]
Yes, I completely agree. Only if you get one and up. The only possible reason why anybody should complain about double drops is if proof can be found that, during double drops, the drop rate is halved. Then, it’s a wash and false hope. I would like to believe the contrary.
Here's a illustration of 2 sets of 100 drops with a 30% drop rate. The first has 29 drops, the second, 33, both using the same random number generator (62 drops / 200, or 31%). The green squares represent a drop.
Say you're simming 10 battles. Depending on where you start in that sequence, you could get great drops (first 10 of the 1st gets you 5, last 10 of the 2nd gets you 6) or very bad drops (in those larger blue gaps). You could also go a long time without decent drops, like if you started after the 9th green square in the top sequence (7/40, 17.5%). Or, you could get fairly consistent drops, like in the middle of the 2nd (13/40, 32.5%). The most important thing to note is that the pattern is not at all regular. There are clumps here and there, gaps, and some singles scattered about. But it doesn't matter at all if you sim in 10s, 3s, or 1s unless you do something else that generates a random number in between (in which case you might miss a great run, btw).
Over a large enough sample, you'll get 30%. You'll just have some good runs and some bad ones along the way.
Yep, it’s all rng. One can sim one at a time. One can sim 8 at a time. Doesn’t matter. The only thing that would matter is “if” the drop rate on shards is covertly lowered during double drop events.
This is going to be my last response on this topic since its clearly not going to go anywhere other than "he said, she said" but lets break down each of your points
First have you never heard of the VW disel emmisons scandal?
And it is pretty easy for a "big" company like CG to have different RNG profiles for different events. And it wouldn't be a scam, because afaik they have never gaureenteed the drop rate of shards (it is only the store crates drop rates they gave the probabilities for) so it wouldn't be unreasonable to consider they would do something like this.
VW diesel emissions scandal has nothing to do with drop rates or Star Wars Galaxy of Heroes. One big company doing something shady out of thousands is not a good point to bring up, and like you mentioned, they have the power to do so, and it wouldn't be a scam. They never guaranteed a fixed drop rate for each node while lying to us. This opening paragraph is so bad that I've wanted to disregard your entire post or paragraph on it, but an important point that I want to bring up is that you seem to have a lot of trust issues with Capital Games, in your overall post (which I will be addressing soon).
Second, is 30-40+ sims per table, over 3 tables, over 2 days, statistically insignificant? I don't think so, but if your a statistician please provide a link to a free text book showing that it isn't significant (pretty sure those amounts of samples are significant if the shard drop rate has a normal p.d.f. , but based on the store crates drop rates it doesn't look like CG's pseudo-RNG is a normal distribution... what most people would think of as totally random chance).
Yes. It is insignificant because they aren't exact numbers:
1. You do not provide data of your toons that you are farming before 2x drop started
2. You do not provide data of your toons after the 2x drop ended
3. Your sims are all over the place (30 sims from over 3 tables is a vague statement)
If you are talking about numbers you have to be specific and consistent. How many sims per specific node (Embo node for example) and how many shards obtained in the 3-day period
I was keeping track of my Enfys Nest farm (31 shards on Thursday right before 2x drop started at 11 A.M. EST and did 24 sims a day for 3 days [72 total sims] and I currently have 79 shards for a total of 48 shards). It was double drop so I got 24 shards total during the 3 day period, which is an absolute 33% drop rate. Obviously you won't believe me since I didn't take a screenshot of the before, but I can show you the after screenshot:
As you can see I have done 24 sims today. Up to you to believe me on my data.
4. You talk about having a great drop rate in the mod table. Ummmmm ok? I guess you aren't having bad drop rates from over 3 tables in 30-40+ sims??
Regarding the talk about finding a link to a free book,
lmao
No I am not going to do your homework for you. Go enroll in an introductory to statistics class and spend a semester arguing with your professor about drop rates with a book he assigns you for that class and write a thesis on drop rates if you want or you can do your own research and then rent/buy a book from Amazon.
Third, yes saying the drops are better or worse is all anecdotal. But you saying to my response that it is all anecdotal is misleading other readers since you are not mentioning the statements saying they are getting better shards is also all ancedotal. This goes to everyone that tries to use "Its just anecdotal" as a counter agreement to a point they don't agree with.
The only real way to prove it one way or another is to do statistically significant testing during the event in question before the game reloads/updates and thus code is changed, as historical performance doesn't predict future results (especially when we are talking about different pRNG profiles possibly being used).
Yes, this was exactly my point. I was poking fun at your statement that you can just use feelings and vague numbers to prove your point without any real data. You can find spreadsheets of people posting drop rates during double drops or otherwise over a long period of time.
Next time, You should take a screenshot of your farming toons before 2x drop starts. And then post an after picture. And then talk about drop rates. Otherwise its anecdotal.
Fourth, there are many other ways poor results for some and not for others can happen, that isn't just "oh you are just having bad RNG" (every time the 2x events come out) or "CG is being nefarious", I will conceede that. Bugs with pRNG seed for example. Or a pRNG sequence that gets reset every code update and has a day or two long, lower then average initial sequence.
But that doesn't mean the experience of the people that seem to be "getting screwed" is not happening. Just because you aren't seeing it doesn't mean it's proof others can't be seeing it (see third point).
Now it seems like you are agreeing that lower drop rates are possible but CG isn't doing it??
Gosh now I feel silly replying
"Maybe its CG doing something on purpose"
"maybe its a bug in the code that only triggers during double drops and its unintentional"
"could be a code update that resets the psuedo random that starts with a series of bad RNG" (implying)
This is going to be my last response on this topic since its clearly not going to go anywhere other than "he said, she said" but lets break down each of your points
First have you never heard of the VW disel emmisons scandal?
And it is pretty easy for a "big" company like CG to have different RNG profiles for different events. And it wouldn't be a scam, because afaik they have never gaureenteed the drop rate of shards (it is only the store crates drop rates they gave the probabilities for) so it wouldn't be unreasonable to consider they would do something like this.
VW diesel emissions scandal has nothing to do with drop rates or Star Wars Galaxy of Heroes. One big company doing something shady out of thousands is not a good point to bring up, and like you mentioned, they have the power to do so, and it wouldn't be a scam. They never guaranteed a fixed drop rate for each node while lying to us. This opening paragraph is so bad that I've wanted to disregard your entire post or paragraph on it, but an important point that I want to bring up is that you seem to have a lot of trust issues with Capital Games, in your overall post (which I will be addressing soon).
Second, is 30-40+ sims per table, over 3 tables, over 2 days, statistically insignificant? I don't think so, but if your a statistician please provide a link to a free text book showing that it isn't significant (pretty sure those amounts of samples are significant if the shard drop rate has a normal p.d.f. , but based on the store crates drop rates it doesn't look like CG's pseudo-RNG is a normal distribution... what most people would think of as totally random chance).
Yes. It is insignificant because they aren't exact numbers:
1. You do not provide data of your toons that you are farming before 2x drop started
2. You do not provide data of your toons after the 2x drop ended
3. Your sims are all over the place (30 sims from over 3 tables is a vague statement)
If you are talking about numbers you have to be specific and consistent. How many sims per specific node (Embo node for example) and how many shards obtained in the 3-day period
I was keeping track of my Enfys Nest farm (31 shards on Thursday right before 2x drop started at 11 A.M. EST and did 24 sims a day for 3 days [72 total sims] and I currently have 79 shards for a total of 48 shards). It was double drop so I got 24 shards total during the 3 day period, which is an absolute 33% drop rate. Obviously you won't believe me since I didn't take a screenshot of the before, but I can show you the after screenshot:
As you can see I have done 24 sims today. Up to you to believe me on my data.
4. You talk about having a great drop rate in the mod table. Ummmmm ok? I guess you aren't having bad drop rates from over 3 tables in 30-40+ sims??
Regarding the talk about finding a link to a free book,
lmao
No I am not going to do your homework for you. Go enroll in an introductory to statistics class and spend a semester arguing with your professor about drop rates with a book he assigns you for that class and write a thesis on drop rates if you want or you can do your own research and then rent/buy a book from Amazon.
Third, yes saying the drops are better or worse is all anecdotal. But you saying to my response that it is all anecdotal is misleading other readers since you are not mentioning the statements saying they are getting better shards is also all ancedotal. This goes to everyone that tries to use "Its just anecdotal" as a counter agreement to a point they don't agree with.
The only real way to prove it one way or another is to do statistically significant testing during the event in question before the game reloads/updates and thus code is changed, as historical performance doesn't predict future results (especially when we are talking about different pRNG profiles possibly being used).
Yes, this was exactly my point. I was poking fun at your statement that you can just use feelings and vague numbers to prove your point without any real data. You can find spreadsheets of people posting drop rates during double drops or otherwise over a long period of time.
Next time, You should take a screenshot of your farming toons before 2x drop starts. And then post an after picture. And then talk about drop rates. Otherwise its anecdotal.
Fourth, there are many other ways poor results for some and not for others can happen, that isn't just "oh you are just having bad RNG" (every time the 2x events come out) or "CG is being nefarious", I will conceede that. Bugs with pRNG seed for example. Or a pRNG sequence that gets reset every code update and has a day or two long, lower then average initial sequence.
But that doesn't mean the experience of the people that seem to be "getting screwed" is not happening. Just because you aren't seeing it doesn't mean it's proof others can't be seeing it (see third point).
Now it seems like you are agreeing that lower drop rates are possible but CG isn't doing it??
Gosh now I feel silly replying
"Maybe its CG doing something on purpose"
"maybe its a bug in the code that only triggers during double drops and its unintentional"
"could be a code update that resets the psuedo random that starts with a series of bad RNG" (implying)
This is what CG_Carrie said regarding drop rates:
Take that as you will.
It's that "sometimes" that stinks. It's not sometimes, it's absolutely always.
Yesterday, I refreshed my energy until the game wouldn't let me refresh anymore. I didn't even know there was a limit. I had two frustrating dry stretches where a refresh didn't yield a single Bastila shard or a single Mk 4 Droid Caller for K-2SO. I also had amazing luck with other refreshes. Overall, I had about the same 1-in-3 chance as always. (ETA: But of course with double drops).
Yesterday in 27 battles trying for stun guns left me with 6 salvage. Now its not a massive sample size, its an 11% drop rate. That's terrible.
I mean... The normal drop rate on purple gear is about 15%, and since your sample size is so small it's within the margin of error. If you'd done one more sim and gotten one more stun cuff you'd have a 25% drop rate, which would be a significantly more deviant result.
Well I have gotten 0 shards when using multiple 120 energy refreshes, multiple times each day, when simming 2 at a time, so far. On every table BUT the mod slicing table! (perhaps mod slicing salvage isn't effected like toon shards seem to be).
That is very oddly horrible RNG, but is consistent with the type I experience during these events, which makes me suspect they nerf the shard drop rates during the 2x events.
As for people getting shards, well if you are spending more crystals during these events then you usually do, you should be getting more shards just due to the fact that your doing more sims, but it might not be very efficient (if they are nerfing the drop rate during the event).
Plus certain nodes may have better drop rates then others (sabine was horrible back in the day), I would not be surprised if CG did this for toons that don't get a lot of use.
Your mantra only proves that you have a huge confirmation bias
There are a lot of screenshots showing in this thread that drop rates are not nerfed
I can counter your confirmation bias with selection bias to prove that drop rates are doubled during double drops.
... it is pretty easy for a "big" company like CG to have different RNG profiles for different events.
Second, is 30-40+ sims per table, over 3 tables, over 2 days, statistically insignificant?
To prove what you are claiming, yes.
It's called a power calculation.
The sample size you would need to prove that they adjusted the assumed drop rate from 33%, say by 10% for these events, with a 5% risk of you claiming a false positive and 20% risk of a false negative, is 1567.
So yes. Your 30 to 40 sims is way below a required sample size.
You have my sympathy for really bad luck, but that's what it is.
Some of these posts are like War and Peace, as if anyone cares about your views enough to waste precious hours of their finite time on earth reading your “lookie how smart I be” essay.
Here it is in Forrest Gump terms, and if this is still too complex, no 8-page diatribe is going to help:
2x drops = GOOD. But it only affects quantity, not the RNG hit rate, which isn’t changed.
I am the jedi dog battle droid C-3PO could not kill.
Further to this: has anyone noticed just how much SLOWER the farms feel today compared to the weekend?
Got close to 80 Mission aval shards over the weekend. Simmed 3x refreshes this morning and got ... 6. Man, the weekend spoiled me and all, but I was crying in my coffee...
Further to this: has anyone noticed just how much SLOWER the farms feel today compared to the weekend?
Got close to 80 Mission aval shards over the weekend. Simmed 3x refreshes this morning and got ... 6. Man, the weekend spoiled me and all, but I was crying in my coffee...
Yes i have. And where have all the crybabies gone? Must be working great now, like "i'm getting 1 shard out of 20 now, waay better than double drops dudes"
Replies
thnx for clarifying what was happening.
Small sample.
Edit: I mean, " it's not a massive sample", should be it's an insignificant sample.
I remember reading at one point that the drop rate for purple gear on nodes about 10% so, if my memory is true, that’s right about normal.
My mistake. Purple drop rate is 20%. But regardless, 27 sims is an insignificant sample size. Like somebody said earlier in the thread: if I flip a coin 100 times and only get 15 tails, does that mean my coin is broken?
"Double Drops" does not make things drop more often, it means IF you receive a drop the amount of the drop is doubled. i.e if 1 shard drops you will get 2. The drop rates are not effected. I have made full passes and no shards drop at all.
First have you never heard of the VW disel emmisons scandal?
And it is pretty easy for a "big" company like CG to have different RNG profiles for different events. And it wouldn't be a scam, because afaik they have never gaureenteed the drop rate of shards (it is only the store crates drop rates they gave the probabilities for) so it wouldn't be unreasonable to consider they would do something like this.
Second, is 30-40+ sims per table, over 3 tables, over 2 days, statistically insignificant? I don't think so, but if your a statistician please provide a link to a free text book showing that it isn't significant (pretty sure those amounts of samples are significant if the shard drop rate has a normal p.d.f. , but based on the store crates drop rates it doesn't look like CG's pseudo-RNG is a normal distribution... what most people would think of as totally random chance).
Third, yes saying the drops are better or worse is all anecdotal. But you saying to my response that it is all anecdotal is misleading other readers since you are not mentioning the statements saying they are getting better shards is also all ancedotal. This goes to everyone that tries to use "Its just anecdotal" as a counter agreement to a point they don't agree with.
The only real way to prove it one way or another is to do statistically significant testing during the event in question before the game reloads/updates and thus code is changed, as historical performance doesn't predict future results (especially when we are talking about different pRNG profiles possibly being used).
Fourth, there are many other ways poor results for some and not for others can happen, that isn't just "oh you are just having bad RNG" (every time the 2x events come out) or "CG is being nefarious", I will conceede that. Bugs with pRNG seed for example. Or a pRNG sequence that gets reset every code update and has a day or two long, lower then average initial sequence.
But that doesn't mean the experience of the people that seem to be "getting screwed" is not happening. Just because you aren't seeing it doesn't mean it's proof others can't be seeing it (see third point).
P.S. My awesome mantra doesn't prove that I have confirmation bias.. it just proves I have a sense of humour!
(And a technique to avoid throwing my phone when I keep getting 0s... lol)
"Two times zero is zerooo0"
- Anrath, Nov. '18
"Double Drops" does not make things drop more often, it means IF you receive a drop the amount of the drop is doubled. i.e if 1 shard drops you will get 2. The drop rates are not effected. I have made full passes and no shards drop at all.
[/quote]
This statement completely explains why double drops should be appreciated, taken advantage of, and why they don’t happen often. FREE SHARDS!!!! Zero times zero has always and will continue to be ZERO. Double drops rule because 1 and up is double shards! Seems very simple to me.
[/quote]
This statement completely explains why double drops should be appreciated, taken advantage of, and why they don’t happen often. FREE SHARDS!!!! Zero times zero has always and will continue to be ZERO. Double drops rule because 1 and up is double shards! Seems very simple to me. [/quote]
But only if you get 1 and up.
Say you're simming 10 battles. Depending on where you start in that sequence, you could get great drops (first 10 of the 1st gets you 5, last 10 of the 2nd gets you 6) or very bad drops (in those larger blue gaps). You could also go a long time without decent drops, like if you started after the 9th green square in the top sequence (7/40, 17.5%). Or, you could get fairly consistent drops, like in the middle of the 2nd (13/40, 32.5%). The most important thing to note is that the pattern is not at all regular. There are clumps here and there, gaps, and some singles scattered about. But it doesn't matter at all if you sim in 10s, 3s, or 1s unless you do something else that generates a random number in between (in which case you might miss a great run, btw).
Over a large enough sample, you'll get 30%. You'll just have some good runs and some bad ones along the way.
Yes. It is insignificant because they aren't exact numbers:
1. You do not provide data of your toons that you are farming before 2x drop started
2. You do not provide data of your toons after the 2x drop ended
3. Your sims are all over the place (30 sims from over 3 tables is a vague statement)
If you are talking about numbers you have to be specific and consistent. How many sims per specific node (Embo node for example) and how many shards obtained in the 3-day period
I was keeping track of my Enfys Nest farm (31 shards on Thursday right before 2x drop started at 11 A.M. EST and did 24 sims a day for 3 days [72 total sims] and I currently have 79 shards for a total of 48 shards). It was double drop so I got 24 shards total during the 3 day period, which is an absolute 33% drop rate. Obviously you won't believe me since I didn't take a screenshot of the before, but I can show you the after screenshot:
As you can see I have done 24 sims today. Up to you to believe me on my data.
4. You talk about having a great drop rate in the mod table. Ummmmm ok? I guess you aren't having bad drop rates from over 3 tables in 30-40+ sims??
Regarding the talk about finding a link to a free book,
lmao
No I am not going to do your homework for you. Go enroll in an introductory to statistics class and spend a semester arguing with your professor about drop rates with a book he assigns you for that class and write a thesis on drop rates if you want or you can do your own research and then rent/buy a book from Amazon.
Yes, this was exactly my point. I was poking fun at your statement that you can just use feelings and vague numbers to prove your point without any real data. You can find spreadsheets of people posting drop rates during double drops or otherwise over a long period of time.
Next time, You should take a screenshot of your farming toons before 2x drop starts. And then post an after picture. And then talk about drop rates. Otherwise its anecdotal.
Now it seems like you are agreeing that lower drop rates are possible but CG isn't doing it??
Gosh now I feel silly replying
"Maybe its CG doing something on purpose"
"maybe its a bug in the code that only triggers during double drops and its unintentional"
"could be a code update that resets the psuedo random that starts with a series of bad RNG" (implying)
This is what CG_Carrie said regarding drop rates:
Take that as you will.
It's that "sometimes" that stinks. It's not sometimes, it's absolutely always.
I mean... The normal drop rate on purple gear is about 15%, and since your sample size is so small it's within the margin of error. If you'd done one more sim and gotten one more stun cuff you'd have a 25% drop rate, which would be a significantly more deviant result.
It's called a power calculation.
The sample size you would need to prove that they adjusted the assumed drop rate from 33%, say by 10% for these events, with a 5% risk of you claiming a false positive and 20% risk of a false negative, is 1567.
So yes. Your 30 to 40 sims is way below a required sample size.
You have my sympathy for really bad luck, but that's what it is.
Here it is in Forrest Gump terms, and if this is still too complex, no 8-page diatribe is going to help:
2x drops = GOOD. But it only affects quantity, not the RNG hit rate, which isn’t changed.
100 Mission Vao Shards
42 Visas Marr
30 Zaalbar
28 Embo
22 Mother Talzin
2 Wedge lol
Not a bad haul for 3 days.
That’s great
Got close to 80 Mission aval shards over the weekend. Simmed 3x refreshes this morning and got ... 6. Man, the weekend spoiled me and all, but I was crying in my coffee...
Yes i have. And where have all the crybabies gone? Must be working great now, like "i'm getting 1 shard out of 20 now, waay better than double drops dudes"