Ally points question

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Since the arrival of weekly shipments I started saving all my ally tokens to buy the really good stuff (before we started getting hit with the trash we get now) and today i was like screw it I've got like 200,000 tokens saved up and there hasn't been anything worth buying with them from the weekly shipments for a long time so i decided to start spending them at the store for the heck of it. I suddenly started getting character shards like crazy some in bundles of 50 which never happened to me before and i barely spend more than a few thousand. Is this just luck or does having enough ally points increase the odds of getting some decent stuff from the store?

Replies

  • It's luck..... I spend mine constantly and have received 50 and 80 packs quite a few times....
  • I should also mention that the more bronzium characters you have unlocked, the better your chances of receiving the bonus shards..
  • The more spins you take increase your chance of shards. The large bundles are meant to be character unlocks.
  • 3pourr2 wrote: »
    The more spins you take increase your chance of shards. The large bundles are meant to be character unlocks.

    Have the devs said this anywhere? Because I have this to be completely untrue. I’ve spent upwards of 100-150k on bronziums in a row many many times and my character pulls have been slim to none.
  • 3pourr2
    1702 posts Member
    3pourr2 wrote: »
    The more spins you take increase your chance of shards. The large bundles are meant to be character unlocks.

    Have the devs said this anywhere? Because I have this to be completely untrue. I’ve spent upwards of 100-150k on bronziums in a row many many times and my character pulls have been slim to none.

    Thats how odds work. The more tries the better chance of getting something worth while. And of course it involves rng. If I buy enough lottery tickets im sure to win on one, may not be the best winner.
  • 3pourr2 wrote: »
    3pourr2 wrote: »
    The more spins you take increase your chance of shards. The large bundles are meant to be character unlocks.

    Have the devs said this anywhere? Because I have this to be completely untrue. I’ve spent upwards of 100-150k on bronziums in a row many many times and my character pulls have been slim to none.

    Thats how odds work. The more tries the better chance of getting something worth while. And of course it involves rng. If I buy enough lottery tickets im sure to win on one, may not be the best winner.

    That’s not how it works here. Every character pull has a set percentage for a drop rate. If (hypothetically) the drop rate is 10%, it’s 1/10 across each pull. Yeah, if you spend 10 pulls you have a better chance of getting MORE shards because you’re buying more, your odds don’t increase to 100% just because you bought 10. The lottery analogy isn’t appropriate because there’s a finite amount of lottery tickets sold, so you do increase your chances with each ticket. There’s infinite bronziums in this game, so your drop rate per pull is still the same.

    Unless I’m misunderstanding what you’re saying, it seems like you’re saying the more you pull, the higher the drop rate becomes, which isn’t true.
  • A better clarification on the lottery analogy: if there’s 100 tickets sold and the win percentage is 10%, you have a 1/10 chance of winning per ticket. If you buy 2 tickets, you have a 2/10 chance of winning because the total amount of tickets sold doesn’t increase. With these bronziums, you would constantly have a 10% win rate because each pull doesn’t compound on the last since there’s infinite pulls.
  • 3pourr2
    1702 posts Member
    A better clarification on the lottery analogy: if there’s 100 tickets sold and the win percentage is 10%, you have a 1/10 chance of winning per ticket. If you buy 2 tickets, you have a 2/10 chance of winning because the total amount of tickets sold doesn’t increase. With these bronziums, you would constantly have a 10% win rate because each pull doesn’t compound on the last since there’s infinite pulls.

    The more pulls the more chances...
  • Yes, the more pulls the lot chances, but that doesn’t increase the overall drop rate for character shards per pull.
  • the *more chances, not the lot chances. Oops.
  • 3pourr2
    1702 posts Member
    Yes, the more pulls the lot chances, but that doesn’t increase the overall drop rate for character shards per pull.

    Thats great but I still wont say” your right” with an argument you created. Seems thats what your looking for here. The more pulls the better the chances of hitting the payout .
  • You don’t have to say I’m right, math does. You’re still giving him wrong information by saying the more pulls the better chance you have of getting a character. That’s not how these percentages work because they’re not compounding on the last pull. You’re saying that each pull brings you closer to a guaranteed character and that’s untrue. Each pull is the same percentage drop rate as the last regardless of if you pull 12 or 12000.

    It’s the same as farming shards from nodes, each sim is still the 30% drop rate. Simming 7 and gettting 0 shards doesn’t guarantee the next 3 will give you 3 shards.
  • 3pourr2
    1702 posts Member
    Using the example 1/10 odds. This is a fixed number that doesn’t change. Buying 2 tickets doesn’t change the odds to 2/10, it gives you a greater chance of hitting the 1/10 odds, the odds are still 1/10.
  • 3pourr2 wrote: »
    Using the example 1/10 odds. This is a fixed number that doesn’t change. Buying 2 tickets doesn’t change the odds to 2/10, it gives you a greater chance of hitting the 1/10 odds, the odds are still 1/10.

    r/IdontThinkThatsMaths
  • ChristophIV
    1837 posts Member
    edited January 20
    3pourr2 wrote: »
    Using the example 1/10 odds. This is a fixed number that doesn’t change. Buying 2 tickets doesn’t change the odds to 2/10, it gives you a greater chance of hitting the 1/10 odds, the odds are still 1/10.

    r/IdontThinkThatsMaths

    He's right.

    If there are only ten possible outcomes, one ticket for each of those outcomes, and you have two tickets, yes is goes from 1/10 to 2/10 as you have the tickets for twenty percent of the outcomes.

    This is different to, say a 1 in 100 chance to pull a full character from a bronzium. If you buy 100 bronziums, you can get 1, 10, 23, 100 full characters. Each bronzium you buy has a 1/100 chance of dropping a bronzium. If you pull 99/100 without a full character, you are not guaranteed one on the 100th pull.

    Odds of pulling character shards do not change the more bronziums you buy. Yes, you may see more due to the volume of ally points spent, but each one is no more or less likely to give you shards than the free bronziums each day.

    OP, just luck. Enjoy it while it lasts.
    Post edited by ChristophIV on
  • 3pourr2 wrote: »
    3pourr2 wrote: »
    The more spins you take increase your chance of shards. The large bundles are meant to be character unlocks.

    Have the devs said this anywhere? Because I have this to be completely untrue. I’ve spent upwards of 100-150k on bronziums in a row many many times and my character pulls have been slim to none.

    Thats how odds work. The more tries the better chance of getting something worth while. And of course it involves rng. If I buy enough lottery tickets im sure to win on one, may not be the best winner.

    That’s not how it works here. Every character pull has a set percentage for a drop rate. If (hypothetically) the drop rate is 10%, it’s 1/10 across each pull. Yeah, if you spend 10 pulls you have a better chance of getting MORE shards because you’re buying more, your odds don’t increase to 100% just because you bought 10. The lottery analogy isn’t appropriate because there’s a finite amount of lottery tickets sold, so you do increase your chances with each ticket. There’s infinite bronziums in this game, so your drop rate per pull is still the same.

    Unless I’m misunderstanding what you’re saying, it seems like you’re saying the more you pull, the higher the drop rate becomes, which isn’t true.

    The lottery analogy is correct.... Since when is there a finite number of lottery tickets sold?....
  • BubbaFett wrote: »
    3pourr2 wrote: »
    3pourr2 wrote: »
    The more spins you take increase your chance of shards. The large bundles are meant to be character unlocks.

    Have the devs said this anywhere? Because I have this to be completely untrue. I’ve spent upwards of 100-150k on bronziums in a row many many times and my character pulls have been slim to none.

    Thats how odds work. The more tries the better chance of getting something worth while. And of course it involves rng. If I buy enough lottery tickets im sure to win on one, may not be the best winner.

    That’s not how it works here. Every character pull has a set percentage for a drop rate. If (hypothetically) the drop rate is 10%, it’s 1/10 across each pull. Yeah, if you spend 10 pulls you have a better chance of getting MORE shards because you’re buying more, your odds don’t increase to 100% just because you bought 10. The lottery analogy isn’t appropriate because there’s a finite amount of lottery tickets sold, so you do increase your chances with each ticket. There’s infinite bronziums in this game, so your drop rate per pull is still the same.

    Unless I’m misunderstanding what you’re saying, it seems like you’re saying the more you pull, the higher the drop rate becomes, which isn’t true.

    The lottery analogy is correct.... Since when is there a finite number of lottery tickets sold?....

    When they stop selling them before the drawing.
  • I've only had one 50-shards-pull so far (Count Dooku), but 1-20 shards from Bronziums are pretty common.
  • BubbaFett wrote: »
    3pourr2 wrote: »
    3pourr2 wrote: »
    The more spins you take increase your chance of shards. The large bundles are meant to be character unlocks.

    Have the devs said this anywhere? Because I have this to be completely untrue. I’ve spent upwards of 100-150k on bronziums in a row many many times and my character pulls have been slim to none.

    Thats how odds work. The more tries the better chance of getting something worth while. And of course it involves rng. If I buy enough lottery tickets im sure to win on one, may not be the best winner.

    That’s not how it works here. Every character pull has a set percentage for a drop rate. If (hypothetically) the drop rate is 10%, it’s 1/10 across each pull. Yeah, if you spend 10 pulls you have a better chance of getting MORE shards because you’re buying more, your odds don’t increase to 100% just because you bought 10. The lottery analogy isn’t appropriate because there’s a finite amount of lottery tickets sold, so you do increase your chances with each ticket. There’s infinite bronziums in this game, so your drop rate per pull is still the same.

    Unless I’m misunderstanding what you’re saying, it seems like you’re saying the more you pull, the higher the drop rate becomes, which isn’t true.

    The lottery analogy is correct.... Since when is there a finite number of lottery tickets sold?....

    When they stop selling them before the drawing.

    Huh?..... That's a raffle, not a lottery.....lotteries like Powerball etc do not have limited tickets.. .
  • BubbaFett wrote: »
    BubbaFett wrote: »
    3pourr2 wrote: »
    3pourr2 wrote: »
    The more spins you take increase your chance of shards. The large bundles are meant to be character unlocks.

    Have the devs said this anywhere? Because I have this to be completely untrue. I’ve spent upwards of 100-150k on bronziums in a row many many times and my character pulls have been slim to none.

    Thats how odds work. The more tries the better chance of getting something worth while. And of course it involves rng. If I buy enough lottery tickets im sure to win on one, may not be the best winner.

    That’s not how it works here. Every character pull has a set percentage for a drop rate. If (hypothetically) the drop rate is 10%, it’s 1/10 across each pull. Yeah, if you spend 10 pulls you have a better chance of getting MORE shards because you’re buying more, your odds don’t increase to 100% just because you bought 10. The lottery analogy isn’t appropriate because there’s a finite amount of lottery tickets sold, so you do increase your chances with each ticket. There’s infinite bronziums in this game, so your drop rate per pull is still the same.

    Unless I’m misunderstanding what you’re saying, it seems like you’re saying the more you pull, the higher the drop rate becomes, which isn’t true.

    The lottery analogy is correct.... Since when is there a finite number of lottery tickets sold?....

    When they stop selling them before the drawing.

    Huh?..... That's a raffle, not a lottery.....lotteries like Powerball etc do not have limited tickets.. .

    They stop selling tickets for a drawing before the drawing happens, otherwise people could watch the drawing and then go buy tickets for that drawing.

    https://heavy.com/news/2018/01/powerball-cutoff-time-how-late-buy-ticket-2018/
  • I’m not saying there’s a hard limit on lottery tickets, I’m saying there’s a finite amount once the cutoff happens for the drawing.
  • BubbaFett wrote: »
    BubbaFett wrote: »
    3pourr2 wrote: »
    3pourr2 wrote: »
    The more spins you take increase your chance of shards. The large bundles are meant to be character unlocks.

    Have the devs said this anywhere? Because I have this to be completely untrue. I’ve spent upwards of 100-150k on bronziums in a row many many times and my character pulls have been slim to none.

    Thats how odds work. The more tries the better chance of getting something worth while. And of course it involves rng. If I buy enough lottery tickets im sure to win on one, may not be the best winner.

    That’s not how it works here. Every character pull has a set percentage for a drop rate. If (hypothetically) the drop rate is 10%, it’s 1/10 across each pull. Yeah, if you spend 10 pulls you have a better chance of getting MORE shards because you’re buying more, your odds don’t increase to 100% just because you bought 10. The lottery analogy isn’t appropriate because there’s a finite amount of lottery tickets sold, so you do increase your chances with each ticket. There’s infinite bronziums in this game, so your drop rate per pull is still the same.

    Unless I’m misunderstanding what you’re saying, it seems like you’re saying the more you pull, the higher the drop rate becomes, which isn’t true.

    The lottery analogy is correct.... Since when is there a finite number of lottery tickets sold?....

    When they stop selling them before the drawing.

    Huh?..... That's a raffle, not a lottery.....lotteries like Powerball etc do not have limited tickets.. .

    They stop selling tickets for a drawing before the drawing happens, otherwise people could watch the drawing and then go buy tickets for that drawing.

    https://heavy.com/news/2018/01/powerball-cutoff-time-how-late-buy-ticket-2018/

    Sure...... But the tix are unlimited before that...... Not sure why why you want to argue semantics.....

    It's very simple....

    The more 7* bronzium toons you have, the greater your chance of getting a full toon pull

    The more points you spend to spin the wheel, the greater your chances of getting shards....

    It's not rocket surgery.....
  • BubbaFett wrote: »
    BubbaFett wrote: »
    BubbaFett wrote: »
    3pourr2 wrote: »
    3pourr2 wrote: »
    The more spins you take increase your chance of shards. The large bundles are meant to be character unlocks.

    Have the devs said this anywhere? Because I have this to be completely untrue. I’ve spent upwards of 100-150k on bronziums in a row many many times and my character pulls have been slim to none.

    Thats how odds work. The more tries the better chance of getting something worth while. And of course it involves rng. If I buy enough lottery tickets im sure to win on one, may not be the best winner.

    That’s not how it works here. Every character pull has a set percentage for a drop rate. If (hypothetically) the drop rate is 10%, it’s 1/10 across each pull. Yeah, if you spend 10 pulls you have a better chance of getting MORE shards because you’re buying more, your odds don’t increase to 100% just because you bought 10. The lottery analogy isn’t appropriate because there’s a finite amount of lottery tickets sold, so you do increase your chances with each ticket. There’s infinite bronziums in this game, so your drop rate per pull is still the same.

    Unless I’m misunderstanding what you’re saying, it seems like you’re saying the more you pull, the higher the drop rate becomes, which isn’t true.

    The lottery analogy is correct.... Since when is there a finite number of lottery tickets sold?....

    When they stop selling them before the drawing.

    Huh?..... That's a raffle, not a lottery.....lotteries like Powerball etc do not have limited tickets.. .

    They stop selling tickets for a drawing before the drawing happens, otherwise people could watch the drawing and then go buy tickets for that drawing.

    https://heavy.com/news/2018/01/powerball-cutoff-time-how-late-buy-ticket-2018/

    Sure...... But the tix are unlimited before that...... Not sure why why you want to argue semantics.....

    It's very simple....

    The more 7* bronzium toons you have, the greater your chance of getting a full toon pull

    The more points you spend to spin the wheel, the greater your chances of getting shards....

    It's not rocket surgery.....

    That’s true, but that’s not what he’s saying. He’s saying the bronziums you spend at one time, you increase your chances for a toon pull. That’s not how it works. Each pull has its own flat chance and it doesn’t increase that drop rate just because you pulled more than 1.
  • It’s the same as a coin flip. 100 flips and you get 99 heads in a row doesn’t guarantee a tails flip next. That’s what he’s saying happens the more bronziums you pull.
  • And yeah, I am going to argue “semantics” when the analogy is wrong, the lottery has finite odds at the winning drawing. Bronziums never get to that point.
  • 3pourr2
    1702 posts Member
    BubbaFett wrote: »
    BubbaFett wrote: »
    BubbaFett wrote: »
    3pourr2 wrote: »
    3pourr2 wrote: »
    The more spins you take increase your chance of shards. The large bundles are meant to be character unlocks.

    Have the devs said this anywhere? Because I have this to be completely untrue. I’ve spent upwards of 100-150k on bronziums in a row many many times and my character pulls have been slim to none.

    Thats how odds work. The more tries the better chance of getting something worth while. And of course it involves rng. If I buy enough lottery tickets im sure to win on one, may not be the best winner.

    That’s not how it works here. Every character pull has a set percentage for a drop rate. If (hypothetically) the drop rate is 10%, it’s 1/10 across each pull. Yeah, if you spend 10 pulls you have a better chance of getting MORE shards because you’re buying more, your odds don’t increase to 100% just because you bought 10. The lottery analogy isn’t appropriate because there’s a finite amount of lottery tickets sold, so you do increase your chances with each ticket. There’s infinite bronziums in this game, so your drop rate per pull is still the same.

    Unless I’m misunderstanding what you’re saying, it seems like you’re saying the more you pull, the higher the drop rate becomes, which isn’t true.

    The lottery analogy is correct.... Since when is there a finite number of lottery tickets sold?....

    When they stop selling them before the drawing.

    Huh?..... That's a raffle, not a lottery.....lotteries like Powerball etc do not have limited tickets.. .

    They stop selling tickets for a drawing before the drawing happens, otherwise people could watch the drawing and then go buy tickets for that drawing.

    https://heavy.com/news/2018/01/powerball-cutoff-time-how-late-buy-ticket-2018/

    Sure...... But the tix are unlimited before that...... Not sure why why you want to argue semantics.....

    It's very simple....

    The more 7* bronzium toons you have, the greater your chance of getting a full toon pull

    The more points you spend to spin the wheel, the greater your chances of getting shards....

    It's not rocket surgery.....

    That’s true, but that’s not what he’s saying. He’s saying the bronziums you spend at one time, you increase your chances for a toon pull. That’s not how it works. Each pull has its own flat chance and it doesn’t increase that drop rate just because you pulled more than 1.

    Thats what you believe I’m saying...
    Its very simple
    A: pull bronzium once, record number of shards collected.
    B: pull bronzium 1000 times, record number of shards collected.
    If B is greater than A then yes more pulls gets you more shards.
  • 3pourr2 wrote: »
    BubbaFett wrote: »
    BubbaFett wrote: »
    BubbaFett wrote: »
    3pourr2 wrote: »
    3pourr2 wrote: »
    The more spins you take increase your chance of shards. The large bundles are meant to be character unlocks.

    Have the devs said this anywhere? Because I have this to be completely untrue. I’ve spent upwards of 100-150k on bronziums in a row many many times and my character pulls have been slim to none.

    Thats how odds work. The more tries the better chance of getting something worth while. And of course it involves rng. If I buy enough lottery tickets im sure to win on one, may not be the best winner.

    That’s not how it works here. Every character pull has a set percentage for a drop rate. If (hypothetically) the drop rate is 10%, it’s 1/10 across each pull. Yeah, if you spend 10 pulls you have a better chance of getting MORE shards because you’re buying more, your odds don’t increase to 100% just because you bought 10. The lottery analogy isn’t appropriate because there’s a finite amount of lottery tickets sold, so you do increase your chances with each ticket. There’s infinite bronziums in this game, so your drop rate per pull is still the same.

    Unless I’m misunderstanding what you’re saying, it seems like you’re saying the more you pull, the higher the drop rate becomes, which isn’t true.

    The lottery analogy is correct.... Since when is there a finite number of lottery tickets sold?....

    When they stop selling them before the drawing.

    Huh?..... That's a raffle, not a lottery.....lotteries like Powerball etc do not have limited tickets.. .

    They stop selling tickets for a drawing before the drawing happens, otherwise people could watch the drawing and then go buy tickets for that drawing.

    https://heavy.com/news/2018/01/powerball-cutoff-time-how-late-buy-ticket-2018/

    Sure...... But the tix are unlimited before that...... Not sure why why you want to argue semantics.....

    It's very simple....

    The more 7* bronzium toons you have, the greater your chance of getting a full toon pull

    The more points you spend to spin the wheel, the greater your chances of getting shards....

    It's not rocket surgery.....

    That’s true, but that’s not what he’s saying. He’s saying the bronziums you spend at one time, you increase your chances for a toon pull. That’s not how it works. Each pull has its own flat chance and it doesn’t increase that drop rate just because you pulled more than 1.

    Thats what you believe I’m saying...
    Its very simple
    A: pull bronzium once, record number of shards collected.
    B: pull bronzium 1000 times, record number of shards collected.
    If B is greater than A then yes more pulls gets you more shards.

    That is what you said, “The more spins you take increase your chance of shards. The large bundles are meant to be character unlocks.”

    Not that you get more shards pulling more cards, but that you *increase chances* of shards. There’s an difference.

    But whatever, I’m over this thread.
  • You can get mod salvage or stun guns. You gotta pick wisely.
  • You are both right and the problem is the interpretation of the phrase "chance of shards". One poster is saying it means the chance of owning a particular shard and the other is using it to mean odds on a pull.

    The more spins you take increase the possibility of you having copies of the shards. The chance of obtaining a shard per pull doesn't change, but the possibility to you owning any of the shards goes up with the amount of pulls you have done.
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