Galactic Chase Shard Drops
February 4, 2019 10:16PM
edited February 2019
First of all. Big thanks to the devs for explicitly stating the drop rates.
Now, the math:
330 shards / 4% drop rate per energy = 8,250 energy that needs to be spent to 7*. Free fleet energy per day is 165 including the free 45 refresh. That would equate to 50 days to 7*. Refreshes would obviously improve that as below:
1 refresh - 29 days
2 refreshes - 21 days
3 refreshes - 16 days
4 refreshes - 13 days
The event runs for 5 days per the post. To 7* in that time, you would need to spend 1,650 energy per day. That's 12.5 refreshes per day.
Now, the math:
330 shards / 4% drop rate per energy = 8,250 energy that needs to be spent to 7*. Free fleet energy per day is 165 including the free 45 refresh. That would equate to 50 days to 7*. Refreshes would obviously improve that as below:
1 refresh - 29 days
2 refreshes - 21 days
3 refreshes - 16 days
4 refreshes - 13 days
The event runs for 5 days per the post. To 7* in that time, you would need to spend 1,650 energy per day. That's 12.5 refreshes per day.
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So if you want to be cost effective farming I'd wait until it moves out of fleet, which is a horribly expensive energy.
Well it says it's only on fleet until the 12th. I supposed whether it moves to another energy or just disappears is open to interpretation.
6,800-7,200 Energy is probably a more realistic expectation of what to expect to get it the first time.
Energy Calculations: 20 Energy = 1 Shard (At 80% Drop Rate)
*After thorough discussion which can be seen through the rest of the thread, 8,250 energy is approximately the amount of energy that players can expect to spend on 7 starring the shuttle. Actual results may be dramatically better or worse depending on RNG*
This isn't really how drop rates work. It'll take you about 8,250 energy, no matter what.
I am willing to meet you in the middle and say 7600. The thing with this event it is ANY hard node meaning that you do not have to spend energy on node refreshes. That fact alone will save people crystals.
Unless they make palp's shuttle a direct counter to the falcon.
Yeah, it's pretty obvious this is not something intended for people to get it to 7* in 4 days. Remains to be seen whether it will be recurring with a break before it returns or whether it will just rotate to different tables in a continuous fashion.
Lol it's statistics, not opinion. Look at it this way:
20 energy nodes have an 80% drop rate, or 4 out of 5.
So for every 5 attempts (100 energy) you can expect 4 shards.
100 energy / 4 shards is 25 energy spent per shard.
You need 330 shards total to 7*.
330*25 is 8,250 total energy.
Yes some people will come out spending less, but others will spend more. It's statistics, that's how it works.
Additionally, this does not factor in the potential standard release pack of 25 shards. Yay, math.
Still not how statistics works. The average player will have to spend 8,250 energy to get a 7* Shuttle in the five days it's on fleet nodes. That's going to be the average. It's not really up for debate, it's relatively simple math.
There may be some as low as 7500, but they'll be outliers. You can't average 8250 with the number you pulled out of thin air and claim that's the average.
1. What is the kit
2. Is this thing meta defining / beats falcon
3. When does the next "chase" start / whats the cadence
That determines how hard i go to 7 star
Lol I love this. chionophile calculated the average energy it would take to 7*. You then pulled a number out of nowhere based on a 100% drop rate and now you're trying to compromise using the average of your two numbers? That's not how maths works.
Discord: Iona Starbound#5299
6,600 Energy is the minimum required to 7 star the new Shuttle. This assumes a player lands every single bonus drop on a 20 energy node. (330 shards x 20 energy).
chionophile's calculation based his calculation off of a drop rate of 4 out of every 5 attempts with the minimum energy being needed as 8,250. This assumes that the player only obtains 4 shards out of 5 attempts. ( 330 shards x 25 energy).
I then averaged our two numbers together and got the 7,425 meaning that an average player who receives a blend of 5/5 and 4/5 drops will spend closer to this number than either extremes. Every player's experience will be different with some requiring less than the average and some players requiring more than the average.
You aren't wrong. I would almost be willing to bet I will be one of those players that beats the odds and gets a 0/5 attempt. At least the drop rates for this event are higher than some of the other bonus events that we have had in the past.
Why would the average player receive a mix of 4/5 and 5/5 drops?
Discord: Iona Starbound#5299
A 80% drop rate means that an average player will spend 8250 energy to obtain the 7th star, there will be also the lucky one that will spend only 6600 energy but there will be also the guy who will spend 10k.
The average energy to reach the 7th star is 8250.
If, as you say, the average is 7425, this means that the shards have the drop rate of 90%, not 80%.
This is correct.
In fact, given that the drop percentage scales evenly with the energy spent at 4% per 1 energy, this is correct no matter which ‘cost’ (8, 10, 16, or 20) node you play, the average ship energy spent will be 8,250 to 7 Star the Shuttle.
(I do note that they specified that was for ship energy, I expect as the chase continues that Cantina will have a similar drop rate, but mod, light, and dark side nodes will probably have about half that drop percentage given that they are a cheaper to refresh energy source. This part is pure speculation, but it makes sense.)
The 8,250 is probably the safe number for anyone trying to calculate the energy to crystals needed to get the shuttle within the initial run. The problem with this number is the same as the 6,600 number.........it does not take into account actual rng results hence why I averaged them the two for 7,425. The 6,600 number requires a player to land every single bonus drop which is virtually impossible while the 8,250 number requires that player never get that fifth bonus drop. In reality, a player is likely to land that fifth drop often potentially reducing the energy cost significantly. That is not taking into account outliers like the inevitable 0/5 or 1/5 attempts that will happen.