Fastest way to farm Palp's shuttle?

Tbirds01

4 days left. I didn’t know if it were even possible to unlock the ship in 4 days, but I might as well try. Is it better to go forward and farm it through the 8 energy or 10 energy ship nodes? I wasn’t sure if 8 energy was less dependent on whether or not it dropped something, or if the 10 energy would have a better chance to drop shards. Are they both equal? Also, do you think I can farm it in time if I spend at least 200 crystals on refreshes a day?

theatomicpun

Because the probability is directly related to energy spent, there is no difference between farming 8 energy and farming 20 energy nodes. So you should first focus on hard nodes that you need to farm, then normal nodes with gear you need.

You will need 2000 energy (on average) to get 80 shards. 3 refreshes per day plus the free energy is 525 per day or 2100 over 4 days.

I am doing 3 refreshes/day and once I get to the last day I may buy a couple more refreshes or the energy pack depending on how close I am.

Tbirds01

@theatomicpun so say I don’t care about farming gear or other ships. Say I just want to go full blown on the shuttle. Would doing the 8 energy be best since I can do more battles through it thus getting possibly more shards?

Kyno

Tbirds01 wrote: »

theatomicpun so say I don’t care about farming gear or other ships. Say I just want to go full blown on the shuttle. Would doing the 8 energy be best since I can do more battles through it thus getting possibly more shards?

it literally doesn't matter.


4% no matter what you do, 8 or 20. The amount of energy spent will produce roughly 4% as shards.

yuuzhanron

It seems like you'll have the best chance by spending energy on 20 nodes. Although there is a 4% chance per energy, a 8 energy is only a 32% chance to have it drop, where a 20 energy is an 80% chance to drop. I may have misunderstood this, but I've only spent on 20 energy nodes and have a near perfect attempt:drop ratio (I'm guessing 80% is correct).

GreenGoblin96

yuuzhanron wrote: »

It seems like you'll have the best chance by spending energy on 20 nodes. Although there is a 4% chance per energy, a 8 energy is only a 32% chance to have it drop, where a 20 energy is an 80% chance to drop. I may have misunderstood this, but I've only spent on 20 energy nodes and have a near perfect attempt:drop ratio (I'm guessing 80% is correct).

False. Every node is exactly the same chance

Edit. For example, 10 tries at 8 energy nodes shield the same shards as 4 tries on 20 energy nodes

Tbirds01

Ah okay thanks for the help guys.

plindboe

yuuzhanron wrote: »

It seems like you'll have the best chance by spending energy on 20 nodes. Although there is a 4% chance per energy, a 8 energy is only a 32% chance to have it drop, where a 20 energy is an 80% chance to drop. I may have misunderstood this, but I've only spent on 20 energy nodes and have a near perfect attempt:drop ratio (I'm guessing 80% is correct).

Yes, an 8 energy node "only" has 32% chance of a shard drop and a 20 energy node has 80%, but since 8 energy nodes are 2.5 times cheaper you can do 2.5 times more of them. It amounts to the same number of shards, no matter which node you pick.

plindboe

Tbirds01 wrote: »

Also, do you think I can farm it in time if I spend at least 200 crystals on refreshes a day?

You should just be able to unlock him that way, but it will be close, so can be a bit risky. You get 165 energy for free per day, and if you buy 240 energy for 200 crystals, that's 405 energy per day, which amounts to 2025 energy over the 5 days the event is active. The drop rate is 4% per energy, so: 2025 energy x 0.04 shards / energy = 81 shards.

If your goal is to unlock the ship at 4*, it's safer to spend 300 crystals per day, until you have unlocked the ship, and then you can stop buying crystals. This is a good idea, in case you're unlucky, and only end up with 79 shards or something. Also, in case there has been some miscommunication about exactly when the event will end, which has happened before.

TheBloodyTongue

This Galactic Chase is Bernoulli process, which means that for each trial, you get one shard or no shard and that probability is same for every trial.
With some maths, it is possible to estimate the outcome of multiple execution of Bernoulli process.
If you get a shard at probability P for each trial, and spend N sim tickets, on average you get N*P shards and its variance is N*P*(1-P).(Thanks the mathematicians.)
For a E energy node, P is proportional to E(P=E*4%) and N is inversely proportional to P(N= (total energy you spend)/E ), so as a whole, the value of N*P(= (total energy you spend)*0.04) does not depend on E. It means AVERAGE AMOUNT of shard you get DOES NOT change whatever node you choose.
Concerning variance, N*P is a fixed value(proved above), so the variance is proportional to (1-P). Probability has range of [0,1], so higher P means lover variance.
Roughly speaking, for higher energy nodes, the variance is smaller, meaning you got high chance of getting N*P shards and only N*P shards, and for lower energy nodes, tha variance is larger, meaning you got a chance at BOTH getting higher than N*P shards and getting lower than N*P shards.

CONCLUSION: If you spend same amout of energy, on average you get same amount of shard. However, on low energy node, the amount of shard will vary much, so it is possible that you enjoy more than average shards or grieve on less than average shards depending on your luck.