When 54% is more like 20%

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So I’ve finally figured out a way past the pesky falcon. Tie fighter pilot and Poe. My problem is this: I need tfp to crit. By himself the ship has a probability of doing so a little over 39%. I run him under thrawn lead and that adds 15% so in total, assuming I’ve done the proper calculations, he should crit 54% of the time. In tracking his “performance” for a few days now, we’ll use blocks of 5 fights or “one-refresh” as a set of data... I’m getting 1/5 crits, 2/5 at best. The last 5 sets of 5 fights have been 2/5, 1/5, 2/5, 1/5 and 1/5. I don’t think this is too small a sample size to where this is “going to even out” over time. You guys need to change the limits of this rng non-sense to where during our typical arena days we get the stats advertised. Neither ackbar lead capital ship nor the falcon itself provide crit avoidance and I’m not getting half the crits I should. Step it up!!!

Replies

  • Unfortunately it is too small of a sample size. Say we have 10000 players 5 of 5 sets is 25 matches times 10000 is 25000 attempts. Youre sample is .1% (point 1 percent) and thats if we only had 10000 players use tfp.

    Since no.one knows for sure. Let's say there is only 100 thousand.

    That makes your sample .01 percent.
  • Kyno
    32087 posts Moderator
    25 battles is way too small of a sample size.

    Flip a coin 25 times and see how close you get to 50%.

    It's nice to see actual data, please keep it up and see how it starts to shape up as you approach a few 100 battles.
  • There’s no way I’ll keep plugging away at the team if I’m only getting 20-30%. You lose the battle in the first 3 seconds if he doesn’t crit. It’s “extremely frustrating”
  • There’s no way I’ll keep plugging away at the team if I’m only getting 20-30%. You lose the battle in the first 3 seconds if he doesn’t crit. It’s “extremely frustrating”

    20-30% is still better than 0%.
  • Bought another refresh 2/5 again. So frustrating.
  • Kokie
    1338 posts Member
    Use tie silencer.....stun the falcon at the start
  • I do sometimes. Issue with that team with gauntlet is, my hounds tooth never puts breach on enemies. I’ll always target theirs that has taunt with HT special but mine just won’t breach. Then my ht is losing taunt and they are killing silencer
  • Wait until you start tracking "2% dodge" in fleet arena. :D
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  • Nikoms565 wrote: »
    Wait until you start tracking "2% dodge" in fleet arena. :D

    I have a bad feeling about this.
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  • DeWannaWonga
    122 posts Member
    edited February 2019
    Hi, still getting 1/5 and 2/5 at best. So at what point do I put in a ticket that’s it’s not doing what it’s supposed to do? You guys need to give me the advertised chances or that’ll be it for me. If it says 39% and lead adds 15 for 54% and I get under 30 for much longer, I’m going to stop playing.
  • You give up and use cassian as first reinforcement..then you don’t stress about the falcon anymore..
  • Damodamo wrote: »
    You give up and use cassian as first reinforcement..then you don’t stress about the falcon anymore..

    As long as RNG favors you and you get enough assists/crits, yeah.
    Ally Code 766-465-766 swgoh.gg/u/trystansr/collection/
  • DeWannaWonga
    122 posts Member
    edited February 2019
    But still leaves my question unanswered. At what point is this non-sense broken and not working as intended? They can’t claim the stats are right. Just lost more ship fights cuz of this and I’m getting more frustrated each time. Was 1/6 on the crit today. Great job. Great game
  • They can indeed claim the stats are right. They aren't going to call it broken from such a small sample size. That's not how statistics works. You need a sample size of at least 100 before you can start crying foul. 1000 or 10,000 would probably be much better, but I doubt anyone will put such numbers forward.

    If you could get enough people running the same team, you could build a bigger sample size. 10 people doing 10 attempts each and you've got your 100, so you can pool the data and see what the total rate among everyone is.

    Basically, if you want real numbers, you either need dedication or to crowd-source. But no one, least of all CG, is going to take you seriously without the real numbers.
    "Don't take yourself so serious; it's a game, have fun!" • https://swgoh.gg/u/yerffcaasi/
  • That’s fine. I don’t have to continue to consume a product that doesn’t function correctly. If I bought a Chevy cuz it was advertised at 54 miles per gallon and I couldn’t get 25, then there’s a problem. I don’t care who else it effects. It’s effecting me both in crystals and frustration, every day I continue to play the game. The simple remedy is to stop doing so. If I can’t get the advertised stats on ships, I won’t play ships anymore. I’ve done 7 days at 10 fights a day, 70 fights and never more than 2/5 have crit. So whether or not there is a larger issue, I don’t care. I care that my stuff isn’t working like advertised. So if I get to 100 fights and the next 20 in a row don’t crit then is there an issue? Why should I have to do 1,000 fights before a point would be valid??
  • Well, this sounds frustrating. Sorry you're getting so frustrated with this; I can relate, to a degree (Thrawn, CLS, etc. on a new-ish shard)

    I'm curious of one thing: Have you thought of the possibility that the ships you're targeting might have some % of crit avoidance? It would be nice if we could see the statistics of ships / characters in PvE battles so we could figure out the reason certain fights make us pull our hair out (and prepare properly).. maybe one day in the future!
  • Well, this sounds frustrating. Sorry you're getting so frustrated with this; I can relate, to a degree (Thrawn, CLS, etc. on a new-ish shard)

    I'm curious of one thing: Have you thought of the possibility that the ships you're targeting might have some % of crit avoidance? It would be nice if we could see the statistics of ships / characters in PvE battles so we could figure out the reason certain fights make us pull our hair out (and prepare properly).. maybe one day in the future!

    Falcon does not have crit avoidance nor does ackbar give him crit avoidance
  • So I’ve finally figured out a way past the pesky falcon. Tie fighter pilot and Poe. My problem is this: I need tfp to crit. By himself the ship has a probability of doing so a little over 39%. I run him under thrawn lead and that adds 15% so in total, assuming I’ve done the proper calculations, he should crit 54% of the time. In tracking his “performance” for a few days now, we’ll use blocks of 5 fights or “one-refresh” as a set of data... I’m getting 1/5 crits, 2/5 at best. The last 5 sets of 5 fights have been 2/5, 1/5, 2/5, 1/5 and 1/5. I don’t think this is too small a sample size to where this is “going to even out” over time. You guys need to change the limits of this rng non-sense to where during our typical arena days we get the stats advertised. Neither ackbar lead capital ship nor the falcon itself provide crit avoidance and I’m not getting half the crits I should. Step it up!!!

    So what's ur tfps crit chance(toon, not ship)? Do u have him geared and modded?
  • I didn’t think the toons crit chance effected the ships? I had been messing with mods that to see if the ships crit chance moved and it never did. But to answer your question, my tfp is 7* g12 and I have 2/3 pieces on the left side and 1/2 on the right side.. when I climb in ship arena both he and poe have all 6 mods at 6•. My TFP (the toon not the ship) has 47.16% crit chance.
  • 1/6 yesterday and 0/4 so far today on my 54% chance of a crit. Please do shore up that 5 year ambitious plan. I can’t wait to keep doing this forever. So now I’m at just under 100 fights and just over 20 Crits on a 54% chance to do so. Bravo guys. “Rng” right?? Why is it with this game 100% of the time we experience any major “rng” it’s not in our favour? There’s never times to balance this stuff out.

    So do I file a ticket that my itf isn’t working right? At what point is it broken? Is it ok that rng forgives all? NO!
  • Liath
    5140 posts Member
    That’s fine. I don’t have to continue to consume a product that doesn’t function correctly. If I bought a Chevy cuz it was advertised at 54 miles per gallon and I couldn’t get 25, then there’s a problem. I don’t care who else it effects. It’s effecting me both in crystals and frustration, every day I continue to play the game. The simple remedy is to stop doing so. If I can’t get the advertised stats on ships, I won’t play ships anymore. I’ve done 7 days at 10 fights a day, 70 fights and never more than 2/5 have crit. So whether or not there is a larger issue, I don’t care. I care that my stuff isn’t working like advertised. So if I get to 100 fights and the next 20 in a row don’t crit then is there an issue? Why should I have to do 1,000 fights before a point would be valid??

    MPG isn’t a random chance based on RNG. The analogy has no relevance. If you buy 10 lottery tickets that each have a 10% chance of paying something, and you get nothing, do you go back to the store and demand a refund?
  • The analogy was simply to illustrate I’m not getting half what I should. And that alone, be it in just my case, or the case of all that use the same thing, it’s a problem for me. And I’m asking at what point is something broken? I’ve done every bit of 100 fights. That’s enough to where for me, it’s an issue. This is me calling the dealer and saying, hey, it’s advertised I should get 54% chance at awesome and I’m only getting 20%. For how long do I have to get 20% before someone looks at whether or not it truly is 54%. When should I bring my ITF in for service??

    I’ve yet to hear from anyone who runs that team that is getting critical hits with itf way more than 54% of the time to balance my “bad luck”. Maybe the people are out there. Who knows. But it’s ridiculous to lose 30% more fights than I should be losing.

    This is a resource management game right? That’s what everyone always says. I chose to forego the falcon and EP shuttle to stay on the OR toons path for 3- zeta gam guard everyone is talking about. I really need the crystals from ships arena and this should be working. I need it to work.

    There should be some checks to where we stay close to the stats we are supposed to get.. my only point. This seems like it’s something that should have a manner of controlling it..
  • What ships are you shooting at? Phantom gains crit immunity when Ghost is present, so you can't hit it critically. When Cassian's U-Wing is in play, it gives all its Rebel allies 50% crit avoidance vs. target locked enemies. So your lower crit rate may be affected by either of those abilities
  • DeWannaWonga
    122 posts Member
    edited February 2019
    The falcon. Shooting at falcon with itf. Under thrawn lead
  • Kyno wrote: »
    25 battles is way too small of a sample size.

    Flip a coin 25 times and see how close you get to 50%.

    It's nice to see actual data, please keep it up and see how it starts to shape up as you approach a few 100 battles.

    @Kyno -- I just did. 10 heads, 15 tails. And happy no one walked into my office wondering what I was doing ;)
  • Kyno
    32087 posts Moderator
    Kyno wrote: »
    25 battles is way too small of a sample size.

    Flip a coin 25 times and see how close you get to 50%.

    It's nice to see actual data, please keep it up and see how it starts to shape up as you approach a few 100 battles.

    Kyno -- I just did. 10 heads, 15 tails. And happy no one walked into my office wondering what I was doing ;)

    Thanks.

    66.6% it must be rigged against heads, it's supposed to be 50... :wink:
  • Kyno wrote: »
    Kyno wrote: »
    25 battles is way too small of a sample size.

    Flip a coin 25 times and see how close you get to 50%.

    It's nice to see actual data, please keep it up and see how it starts to shape up as you approach a few 100 battles.

    Kyno -- I just did. 10 heads, 15 tails. And happy no one walked into my office wondering what I was doing ;)

    Thanks.

    66.6% it must be rigged against heads, it's supposed to be 50... :wink:

    Pssst.....15/25 is 60%
  • Kyno
    32087 posts Moderator
    Kyno wrote: »
    Kyno wrote: »
    25 battles is way too small of a sample size.

    Flip a coin 25 times and see how close you get to 50%.

    It's nice to see actual data, please keep it up and see how it starts to shape up as you approach a few 100 battles.

    Kyno -- I just did. 10 heads, 15 tails. And happy no one walked into my office wondering what I was doing ;)

    Thanks.

    66.6% it must be rigged against heads, it's supposed to be 50... :wink:

    Pssst.....15/25 is 60%

    Not sure why I did the ratio and not the %..... dont mind me.
  • Nikoms565 wrote: »
    Wait until you start tracking "2% dodge" in fleet arena. :D

    Not just fleet, but game wide. The dodge rate is waaaaaay higher than 2%.
  • DeWannaWonga
    122 posts Member
    edited February 2019
    Still not ever getting more than 2/5 to crit so I’m less than 25% over 100 battles now. So I’m calling this crap broken. Yeah I’m 2/7 so far today. I’m under 25% total over 100 fights. I’d like to know when enough is enough.
    Post edited by DeWannaWonga on
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