Upgrading mods for speed

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Ravifer
52 posts Member
Seriously... I just upgraded 16 mods and none had their speed go up.
I am sure chances are not the same for each stat to go up... at least not for speed.
Could we have a probability posted officially of the chances of each stat going up, just like we have for getting shards in the boxes we buy.
Totally sure is not 25% chance each...

Replies

  • Is there also an equal chance of a mod to get a speed secondary stat as well of each other type? I feel its off as I can go through a dozen and get 1 or 2.

    But as far as the OP I have seen similar poor chances. But might just be my bad luck....
  • I just had a crit damage roll to 20 & 21 speed. Seems like it’s higher than 25% to me
  • Regardless of what the percentage is it would be good to actually know the percentage chances. Not sure why the devs can't share this information. My own experiences would suggest it is not even close to 25% after playing for three+ years. It feels more like 5% but regardless of what the percentage is it would be good to know instead of just a bunch of us clowns theory crafting
  • Ravifer
    52 posts Member
    Kyno, obviously, my sample size is not just these last ones. I have had many more bad runs, and i assure you i have upgraded plenty mods and its not even close to a 25%.
    That i why i asked for an answer from someone who actually knows the probability. I am sure is not 25%. At least for me is not even close to that. But maybe they can provide actual data and prove me wrong and i am just an unlucky player.
  • I always feel like the chances of speed rolling is greater than 25%. It sounds like it’s even across the board. Gold mods from mod challenges never seem to have speed though on the rare occasion that they do drop.
  • Kyno wrote: »
    Would you mind posting your data so we can all be "totally sure it's not 25%".

    16 is a very small sample size to make any judgements on the statistics here.

    We could probably figure it out. 0 successful upgrades out of 16 attempts is roughly...

    :)
  • To get the initial secondary you can work the odds pretty easily. To get the secondary stat you want its a simple division of how many other stats that could drop are left. At first there are 12 types of secondaries, and each subsequent secondary reduces the type pool by 1.

    First: = 1/12 = 0.08%
    Second: = 1/11 = 0.09%
    Third: 1/10 = 0.10%
    Fourth: 1/09 = 0.11%

    For stat increases on the secondaries then there is a 25% chance for the stat you want to increase. My understanding that this is a random role each time so the 25% chance (or 75% failure) is static so if it does not role the first time the odds do not change and you still have a 75% failure chance for the next increase.

    My general rule for mod upgrades is I only take them up if there are 2 stats I like (usually offense and speed for me) so my chances are 50% that one of the stats I want will increase.

  • Gifafi
    1269 posts Member
    op, if you aren't, go level by level. as in go to 6, then 9, then 12, before going to 15. Not sure if this is your issue but if you go incrementally you'll know if it's worth continuing. glgl
  • Jailwatcher.... you're assuming all secondaries have an equal chance to drop... So it is basically theory crafting which is no help at all.
  • VonZant
    3473 posts Member
    I got a +23 speed crit chance mod yesterday starting at a green. I havent taken it to 6e yet because I want to use it on my Ewoks. I was shocked, but it's doable.
  • Kyno
    20760 posts Moderator
    Ravifer wrote: »
    Kyno, obviously, my sample size is not just these last ones. I have had many more bad runs, and i assure you i have upgraded plenty mods and its not even close to a 25%.
    That i why i asked for an answer from someone who actually knows the probability. I am sure is not 25%. At least for me is not even close to that. But maybe they can provide actual data and prove me wrong and i am just an unlucky player.

    ok I understand, I would still be interested to see your data that shows you are unlucky or shows a value of less than 25%.

    many players have done runs on other aspects of the game and have come pretty close to proving drop rates on different things. If you have the data it would be nice to see what you have collected. Statistics is not something the human mind is really built to digest, recorded data goes a long way to disprove feelings that some get when they see "bad strings" of certain events.
  • I believe it's been officially stated stats have an equal chance of increasing aka its 25%.

    If you anecdotal evidence doesn't confirm, I suppose you can suggest a conspiracy. I have quite a few 20+ mods, so there's that.
  • You want speed, it gives you something else. Like potency when you decide use it on ezra.
    And when you really want something else, it gives you speed instead. That's why my Ordo has +97 speed...
  • Vendi1983
    3114 posts Member
    Move the mods around if that's the case...
  • I have hardly any 20+ mods, but I don't assume that the devs are lying about an equal chance for each stat to be raised. I definitely go through dry spells but just last week or so I was doing some mod management & got great luck with speeds gaining another mod with over +20 speed and one each of +15, +16 & +17. This was out of maybe 30-ish mods total that I was upgrading from green or blue.

    I've been working on a pattern where I don't upgrade a blue mod to purple unless at least one of the 2 secondary upgrades went to speed. On a game level this means it's impossible for the speed to be less than 6, but even the +6 mods I generally skip. I always upgrade +8 or better, sometimes the +7 or better (depends on other attributes of the mod). This puts me in a situation where I'm upgrading a lot or +8 or +9 mods and a few +10 to +15 mods. There's a 43%+ chance that at least one of the next two upgrades is speed. This means that I upgrade quite a lot of mods to blue, then not very many to gold, but 43% of them are really good mods of +11 or better. While it's true that some of the blues that didn't give a bonus to a speed secondary might end up +11 or better if I upgraded them to gold, their chances are slim, so this is a better use of resources.

    This way I've ended up with a lot of +14-16 mods. +17 seems to be hard to get, but I've got a good number of +17/18 as well. After that they are really rare, at least for me. It's not a perfect system, but it seems resource efficient and allows me to provide +75 to +89 speed to a lot of toons that I never use outside of TW/GA, TB special missions, and events.

    The more interesting question to me is about the odds of getting a speed secondary in the first place.
    I haven't seen an official statement about whether or not each stat has an equal chance to become your next secondary when upgrading a mod that doesn't have 4 secondaries yet. It would be nice to get that confirmed, though my casual observations make me think that 1-in-3 mods with speed could be accurate, which would mean that there's an equal chance of a speed secondary on every mod (12 different secondaries, 4 secondaries per mod with no repeats allowed, thus 1-in-3 mods should have speed).

  • crzydroid
    4482 posts Moderator
    When I tracked a while back, I converged pretty closely to 25%. There was a streak in there where I think I was over 30%.
  • Ravifer
    52 posts Member
    Kyno wrote: »
    Ravifer wrote: »
    Kyno, obviously, my sample size is not just these last ones. I have had many more bad runs, and i assure you i have upgraded plenty mods and its not even close to a 25%.
    That i why i asked for an answer from someone who actually knows the probability. I am sure is not 25%. At least for me is not even close to that. But maybe they can provide actual data and prove me wrong and i am just an unlucky player.

    ok I understand, I would still be interested to see your data that shows you are unlucky or shows a value of less than 25%.

    many players have done runs on other aspects of the game and have come pretty close to proving drop rates on different things. If you have the data it would be nice to see what you have collected. Statistics is not something the human mind is really built to digest, recorded data goes a long way to disprove feelings that some get when they see "bad strings" of certain events.

    Ok. I will track my data these next times and post it here after a few times to keep track.
    Although, from other replies it will still be my own personal data and others seem to be more lucky in this aspect.
    On other aspects of the game (shards mainly), I have bad runs getting 1 shard in 3-4 days, but on average I get 2 a day, sometimes 1, 3 and even 5. So it kind of compensates. But speed in mods is a totally different story.
    I will post my results after a few more tries.
  • I have upgraded so many mods hoping to get speed upgrades,and be I am stuck with no credits and about 70 mods stuck at speed 4.
  • Same here. Slicing and upgrading for no speed. Today I can say that I havent had speed go up either in the ones i bought and sliced. Wont keep track of what goes up, just about how many times speed goes up.
    Still would like an official response as to wether it is a 25% chance to hit speed or not all secondaries have same probability.
  • Mephisto_style
    2414 posts Member
    edited March 6
    Side-note, my luck with getting multiple speed rolls lately has been so good that I stopped getting new mods and just do Mod Battles for slicing mats. This was after I wrote the 1st 2 sentences of this post. 2 speed rolls out of 4.
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    Added note, I upgraded 7 more blue mods from 1 to 6 and 2 green mods from 1 to 9 and only 2 speeds appeared. That's like 2/20 speed appearance rolls. None of the speed upgraded a 2nd roll. Sometimes the parity around an average can seem tilted. The more samples you do though the more it smoothes out. If I were to do 100 more mods that 1/10 would approach 1/4.
    Post edited by Mephisto_style on
  • I have hardly any 20+ mods, but I don't assume that the devs are lying about an equal chance for each stat to be raised. I definitely go through dry spells but just last week or so I was doing some mod management & got great luck with speeds gaining another mod with over +20 speed and one each of +15, +16 & +17. This was out of maybe 30-ish mods total that I was upgrading from green or blue.

    I've been working on a pattern where I don't upgrade a blue mod to purple unless at least one of the 2 secondary upgrades went to speed. On a game level this means it's impossible for the speed to be less than 6, but even the +6 mods I generally skip. I always upgrade +8 or better, sometimes the +7 or better (depends on other attributes of the mod). This puts me in a situation where I'm upgrading a lot or +8 or +9 mods and a few +10 to +15 mods. There's a 43%+ chance that at least one of the next two upgrades is speed. This means that I upgrade quite a lot of mods to blue, then not very many to gold, but 43% of them are really good mods of +11 or better. While it's true that some of the blues that didn't give a bonus to a speed secondary might end up +11 or better if I upgraded them to gold, their chances are slim, so this is a better use of resources.

    This way I've ended up with a lot of +14-16 mods. +17 seems to be hard to get, but I've got a good number of +17/18 as well. After that they are really rare, at least for me. It's not a perfect system, but it seems resource efficient and allows me to provide +75 to +89 speed to a lot of toons that I never use outside of TW/GA, TB special missions, and events.

    The more interesting question to me is about the odds of getting a speed secondary in the first place.
    I haven't seen an official statement about whether or not each stat has an equal chance to become your next secondary when upgrading a mod that doesn't have 4 secondaries yet. It would be nice to get that confirmed, though my casual observations make me think that 1-in-3 mods with speed could be accurate, which would mean that there's an equal chance of a speed secondary on every mod (12 different secondaries, 4 secondaries per mod with no repeats allowed, thus 1-in-3 mods should have speed).

    I absolutely don't believe the devs that it's an equal chance.

    Maybe in the totality of all players it's equal but i definitely 100% believe per player it's not equal. Purely my opinion
  • Kyno
    20760 posts Moderator
    Ravifer wrote: »
    Kyno wrote: »
    Ravifer wrote: »
    Kyno, obviously, my sample size is not just these last ones. I have had many more bad runs, and i assure you i have upgraded plenty mods and its not even close to a 25%.
    That i why i asked for an answer from someone who actually knows the probability. I am sure is not 25%. At least for me is not even close to that. But maybe they can provide actual data and prove me wrong and i am just an unlucky player.

    ok I understand, I would still be interested to see your data that shows you are unlucky or shows a value of less than 25%.

    many players have done runs on other aspects of the game and have come pretty close to proving drop rates on different things. If you have the data it would be nice to see what you have collected. Statistics is not something the human mind is really built to digest, recorded data goes a long way to disprove feelings that some get when they see "bad strings" of certain events.

    Ok. I will track my data these next times and post it here after a few times to keep track.
    Although, from other replies it will still be my own personal data and others seem to be more lucky in this aspect.
    On other aspects of the game (shards mainly), I have bad runs getting 1 shard in 3-4 days, but on average I get 2 a day, sometimes 1, 3 and even 5. So it kind of compensates. But speed in mods is a totally different story.
    I will post my results after a few more tries.

    Statistics dont work that way, no one person is "luckier" than anyone else. We can all see different ends of the variance, but they system will always balance out to the "correct" value, whatever that may be.
  • mlb1399
    648 posts Member
    I’ve got a fairly large sample size and the numbers do play out. For instance, I’ve got 277 15+ and 70 20+, almost 25% of the 15+. Tough to tell with my 10+ because so many are unused or sold but I’d bet that number would be 100-200 higher than my 632. Make 15+ a quarter of the 10+.
  • Gifafi wrote: »
    op, if you aren't, go level by level. as in go to 6, then 9, then 12, before going to 15. Not sure if this is your issue but if you go incrementally you'll know if it's worth continuing. glgl

    I do the same first to 9 usually and if I don't like it I'm done.then I sell it.
  • jkray622
    1317 posts Member
    Kyno wrote: »

    Statistics dont work that way, no one person is "luckier" than anyone else. We can all see different ends of the variance, but they system will always balance out to the "correct" value, whatever that may be.

    The system doesn't always balance out to the correct value. The probability is highly likely to fit into a statistical curve, but over a long period of time, you could see an actual result that doesn't match the probability curve.

    If the system is designed to balance out to the correct value, then these players would be right. One player with bad luck would be counteracted (intentionally) by the system giving another player higher results. That would no be probability - that would be a forced curve.
  • Threads like these always make me despair because speed rules, I don't have enough, and I "never" get a mod that bumps speed. Then today I got a +15 (very useful to me). Thanks Obama!
  • Kyno wrote: »
    Ravifer wrote: »
    Kyno, obviously, my sample size is not just these last ones. I have had many more bad runs, and i assure you i have upgraded plenty mods and its not even close to a 25%.
    That i why i asked for an answer from someone who actually knows the probability. I am sure is not 25%. At least for me is not even close to that. But maybe they can provide actual data and prove me wrong and i am just an unlucky player.

    ok I understand, I would still be interested to see your data that shows you are unlucky or shows a value of less than 25%.

    many players have done runs on other aspects of the game and have come pretty close to proving drop rates on different things. If you have the data it would be nice to see what you have collected. Statistics is not something the human mind is really built to digest, recorded data goes a long way to disprove feelings that some get when they see "bad strings" of certain events.

    I am currently at 750+ upgrades tracked and 150 slices. Not ready to share my data as I don't think it's large enough. There is another person on Reddit doing something similar. I hope the next time he posts to combine our data and put this to rest.
  • Could you please give me a number of speed upgrades on your 150 slices?
    My track now is 1 out of 23 slices.
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