Seriously... I just upgraded 16 mods and none had their speed go up.

I am sure chances are not the same for each stat to go up... at least not for speed.

Could we have a probability posted officially of the chances of each stat going up, just like we have for getting shards in the boxes we buy.

Totally sure is not 25% chance each...

I am sure chances are not the same for each stat to go up... at least not for speed.

Could we have a probability posted officially of the chances of each stat going up, just like we have for getting shards in the boxes we buy.

Totally sure is not 25% chance each...

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## Replies

16 is a very small sample size to make any judgements on the statistics here.

But as far as the OP I have seen similar poor chances. But might just be my bad luck....

That i why i asked for an answer from someone who actually knows the probability. I am sure is not 25%. At least for me is not even close to that. But maybe they can provide actual data and prove me wrong and i am just an unlucky player.

We could probably figure it out. 0 successful upgrades out of 16 attempts is roughly...

First: = 1/12 = 0.08%

Second: = 1/11 = 0.09%

Third: 1/10 = 0.10%

Fourth: 1/09 = 0.11%

For stat increases on the secondaries then there is a 25% chance for the stat you want to increase. My understanding that this is a random role each time so the 25% chance (or 75% failure) is static so if it does not role the first time the odds do not change and you still have a 75% failure chance for the next increase.

My general rule for mod upgrades is I only take them up if there are 2 stats I like (usually offense and speed for me) so my chances are 50% that one of the stats I want will increase.

ok I understand, I would still be interested to see your data that shows you are unlucky or shows a value of less than 25%.

many players have done runs on other aspects of the game and have come pretty close to proving drop rates on different things. If you have the data it would be nice to see what you have collected. Statistics is not something the human mind is really built to digest, recorded data goes a long way to disprove feelings that some get when they see "bad strings" of certain events.

If you anecdotal evidence doesn't confirm, I suppose you can suggest a conspiracy. I have quite a few 20+ mods, so there's that.

And when you really want something else, it gives you speed instead. That's why my Ordo has +97 speed...

I've been working on a pattern where I don't upgrade a blue mod to purple unless at least one of the 2 secondary upgrades went to speed. On a game level this means it's impossible for the speed to be less than 6, but even the +6 mods I generally skip. I always upgrade +8 or better, sometimes the +7 or better (depends on other attributes of the mod). This puts me in a situation where I'm upgrading a lot or +8 or +9 mods and a few +10 to +15 mods. There's a 43%+ chance that at least one of the next two upgrades is speed. This means that I upgrade quite a lot of mods to blue, then not very many to gold, but 43% of them are really good mods of +11 or better. While it's true that some of the blues that didn't give a bonus to a speed secondary might end up +11 or better if I upgraded them to gold, their chances are slim, so this is a better use of resources.

This way I've ended up with a lot of +14-16 mods. +17 seems to be hard to get, but I've got a good number of +17/18 as well. After that they are really rare, at least for me. It's not a perfect system, but it seems resource efficient and allows me to provide +75 to +89 speed to a lot of toons that I never use outside of TW/GA, TB special missions, and events.

The more interesting question to me is about the odds of getting a speed secondary in the first place.

I haven't seen an official statement about whether or not each stat has an equal chance to become your next secondary when upgrading a mod that doesn't have 4 secondaries yet. It would be nice to get that confirmed, though my casual observations make me think that 1-in-3 mods with speed could be accurate, which would mean that there's an equal chance of a speed secondary on every mod (12 different secondaries, 4 secondaries per mod with no repeats allowed, thus 1-in-3 mods should have speed).

Ok. I will track my data these next times and post it here after a few times to keep track.

Although, from other replies it will still be my own personal data and others seem to be more lucky in this aspect.

On other aspects of the game (shards mainly), I have bad runs getting 1 shard in 3-4 days, but on average I get 2 a day, sometimes 1, 3 and even 5. So it kind of compensates. But speed in mods is a totally different story.

I will post my results after a few more tries.

Still would like an official response as to wether it is a 25% chance to hit speed or not all secondaries have same probability.

Added note, I upgraded 7 more blue mods from 1 to 6 and 2 green mods from 1 to 9 and only 2 speeds appeared. That's like 2/20 speed appearance rolls. None of the speed upgraded a 2nd roll. Sometimes the parity around an average can seem tilted. The more samples you do though the more it smoothes out. If I were to do 100 more mods that 1/10 would approach 1/4.

Statistics dont work that way, no one person is "luckier" than anyone else. We can all see different ends of the variance, but they system will always balance out to the "correct" value, whatever that may be.

I do the same first to 9 usually and if I don't like it I'm done.then I sell it.

The system doesn't always balance out to the correct value. The probability is highly likely to fit into a statistical curve, but over a long period of time, you could see an actual result that doesn't match the probability curve.

If the system is designed to balance out to the correct value, then these players would be right. One player with bad luck would be counteracted (intentionally) by the system giving another player higher results. That would no be probability - that would be a forced curve.

I am currently at 750+ upgrades tracked and 150 slices. Not ready to share my data as I don't think it's large enough. There is another person on Reddit doing something similar. I hope the next time he posts to combine our data and put this to rest.

My track now is 1 out of 23 slices.