To the Paladins of the 33% drop rate....

Farming Juhani and Carth Onasi...
3 days in a row of 0/8 for both (0/16 for Juhani one day, indeed..)
Please explain which kind of miracle could ever adjust these numbers towards the decanted average of 30-33%.....

Replies

  • So I pass.... will get Darth Revan next time.
    Burning crystals in refreshes is pointless when you multiply a zero....
  • Luck.
    5 days 0 bastila shard in a row here. No refresh, max attempt.
  • you would need to get a drop rate of about 35% for the rest of the farming.
  • it is really weird. My Vet Chewie rate has been a crazy 50% compared to my Shores awful (0/14) drop rate
  • Adamklark
    28 posts Member
    edited March 17
    I tested with snow han solo and the veterans. actual droprate is 23-28% and the droprate, well drops near the end ,which is very suspicious.(I made screenshots and excel from start to end)
  • Anrath
    209 posts Member
    edited March 17
    Is is 33% per 7* character farm, or 33% over multiple character farms?

    That is, the "variance" of CGs shard distribution so large that you have to collect more samples then is required to take a single toon to 7* before you have a great chance to see the 33% average in your samples?
  • Anrath wrote: »
    Is is 33% per 7* character farm, or 33% over multiple character farms?

    That is, the "variance" of CGs shard distribution so large that you have to collect more samples then is required to take a single toon to 7* before you have a great chance to see the 33% average in your samples?

    It's the latter. And to go even further, it's 33% for all shards across all players. Some folks will play for several years and experience total drop rates under 33%. Some, lucky, other people will be over.
  • NgH
    47 posts Member
    Whatever it turns out to be, it's way too low for the number of characters in game; it just takes too long if you're ftp.
  • strafeSS
    149 posts Member
    edited March 17
    NgH wrote: »
    Whatever it turns out to be, it's way too low for the number of characters in game; it just takes too long if you're ftp.

    Well that’s really the point, isn’t it? They are here to make money.
  • It’s easy to fixate on the bad streaks. Don’t overlook the days when you high roll. If you always look at it from a negative perspective, you’ll never enjoy playing the game.
  • leef
    11712 posts Member
    edited March 17
    first of, i don't believe you actually did 56 (24 carth, 32 juhani) sims and haven't gotten a single shard, but lets roll with it.
    you need 280 shards of each, 560 total. Assuming 33.3% droprate you need to do 1680 sims. You've done 56 sims without getting any shard 1680-56 = 1624. So the droprate in the remaining 1624 sims you've left to average out at 33.3% should be (560/1624 = 0,345) 34.5%.
    I'm reasonably sure no one would even notice the difference between a 33.3% and a 34.5% droprate without tracking drops, so i guess i've explained how it's very possible to have a 56 sim coldstreak without having to notice a hotstreak to make up for said coldstreak.
    Save water, drink champagne!
  • Kyno
    19874 posts Moderator
    So 24 drops is not really a good sample size, so it is hard to tell. Keep tracking your data and see what your final results are.

    Also 3 days at 0 can correct pretty easily. 2 days with an average of 6 brings you right back into alignment.

    I also assume (so I could be wrong) that this is not your first 3 pulls of that node and that you dont have recorded data, but I'm sure that those 3 days didnt put you down that low on the overall average.
  • Jarvind
    1537 posts Member
    edited March 17
    leef wrote: »
    first of, i don't believe you actually did 56 (24 carth, 32 juhani) sims and haven't gotten a single shard, but lets roll with it.

    I also find this very difficult to believe. If my understanding of how to calculate probability is correct, the chance of that happening is around 0.000001%. One millionth of one percent.
  • leef
    11712 posts Member
    Jarvind wrote: »
    leef wrote: »
    first of, i don't believe you actually did 56 (24 carth, 32 juhani) sims and haven't gotten a single shard, but lets roll with it.

    I also find this very difficult to believe. If my understanding of how to calculate probability is correct, the chance of that happening is around 0.000001%. One millionth of one percent.

    i guess it's possible if you take the amount of players and the total amount of sims done by the entire playerbase into consideration, but i've seen way too many people exegurate to prove a point on this forum to just believe everything everyone says, especially if they're complaining about something.
    Save water, drink champagne!
  • Kluge
    107 posts Member
    So if you are doing the max-sim on the slider, STOP. Don't ever farm more than 3 at a time. I do 3,3,2,refresh,3,3,2,refresh,3,3,2 and today pulled 14 Juhani and 12 Carth shards. If you "put all your eggs in one basket" and do the max (which is what EA wants), you have the worst overall odds. One bad roll of the rng dice and you are s c r e w e d! I'd rather take a bad roll on a 3 battle sim than an 8 battle sim.
  • leef
    11712 posts Member
    Kluge wrote: »
    So if you are doing the max-sim on the slider, STOP. Don't ever farm more than 3 at a time. I do 3,3,2,refresh,3,3,2,refresh,3,3,2 and today pulled 14 Juhani and 12 Carth shards. If you "put all your eggs in one basket" and do the max (which is what EA wants), you have the worst overall odds. One bad roll of the rng dice and you are s c r e w e d! I'd rather take a bad roll on a 3 battle sim than an 8 battle sim.

    You do you, but i'm fairly certain it doesn't make a difference whether you sim per 2/3 or max. I also don't see a reason why ea would want you to do max sims and have an overal worse droprate because of that. I mean, they could just lower the droprate if they want us to get less shards for our energy. What's the point of only "screwing over" the players who sim max?
    Save water, drink champagne!
  • Kyno
    19874 posts Moderator
    Kluge wrote: »
    So if you are doing the max-sim on the slider, STOP. Don't ever farm more than 3 at a time. I do 3,3,2,refresh,3,3,2,refresh,3,3,2 and today pulled 14 Juhani and 12 Carth shards. If you "put all your eggs in one basket" and do the max (which is what EA wants), you have the worst overall odds. One bad roll of the rng dice and you are s c r e w e d! I'd rather take a bad roll on a 3 battle sim than an 8 battle sim.

    The odds are the same. Doesnt matter how you do it, that's how statistics work.
  • AleSahnDroh_1979
    664 posts Member
    edited March 17
    @Kyno: close this discussion please.
    When folks start with “I don’t believe...” there is no point in sharing something here
  • leef
    11712 posts Member
    @Kyno: close this discussion please.
    When folks start with “I don’t believe...” there is no point in sharing something here

    You asked for an explanation, i gave you one. You could have focussed on that.
    Also, lets be honest, do you believe everything everyone says on this forum?
    Save water, drink champagne!
  • leef
    11712 posts Member
    edited March 17
    no you don't, as is evident by you questioning the 33.3% droprate. but yea, there's no point.
    hypocrit much?
    Save water, drink champagne!
  • APX_919
    1869 posts Member
    @Kyno: close this discussion please.
    When folks start with “I don’t believe...” there is no point in sharing something here

    Is this because other people aren't experiencing what you believe to be the case for all? Prepare to be disappointed in life then. I was with you until that point but if you can't take a little heat, get out of Mustafar.
    "Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen...mostly"
  • Kyno wrote: »
    Kluge wrote: »
    So if you are doing the max-sim on the slider, STOP. Don't ever farm more than 3 at a time. I do 3,3,2,refresh,3,3,2,refresh,3,3,2 and today pulled 14 Juhani and 12 Carth shards. If you "put all your eggs in one basket" and do the max (which is what EA wants), you have the worst overall odds. One bad roll of the rng dice and you are s c r e w e d! I'd rather take a bad roll on a 3 battle sim than an 8 battle sim.

    The odds are the same. Doesnt matter how you do it, that's how statistics work.

    I think it just makes us feel better when we go 0/3 rather than 0/8.
  • Kyno
    19874 posts Moderator
    Kyno wrote: »
    Kluge wrote: »
    So if you are doing the max-sim on the slider, STOP. Don't ever farm more than 3 at a time. I do 3,3,2,refresh,3,3,2,refresh,3,3,2 and today pulled 14 Juhani and 12 Carth shards. If you "put all your eggs in one basket" and do the max (which is what EA wants), you have the worst overall odds. One bad roll of the rng dice and you are s c r e w e d! I'd rather take a bad roll on a 3 battle sim than an 8 battle sim.

    The odds are the same. Doesnt matter how you do it, that's how statistics work.

    I think it just makes us feel better when we go 0/3 rather than 0/8.

    Absolutely.
  • Kyno
    19874 posts Moderator
    Kyno: close this discussion please.
    When folks start with “I don’t believe...” there is no point in sharing something here

    Ok.

    As an FYI, you did start this post basically saying the same thing. You dont believe that the drop rate is 33%, which has been posted many times and most with data to prove it.
This discussion has been closed.