Mod’s Secondary Stats Probability to Increase

WEDWAY
19 posts Member

When upgrading mods, does the order of the secondary stats play any role in the probability that the stat will increase? There are 4 secondary mod stats. Does the stat in the 1st slot have more of a chance to increase in value than the stat in slots 2, 3, and 4? Is slot 4 the least likely to increase in value when upgrading, or are all four slots equal in probability to increase in value when upgrading? Thanks.

Replies

  • Ultra
    11491 posts Moderator
    All 4 slots have 25% chance of increasing. The first secondary isn’t more likely to increase than the second, third or fourth secondary
  • jkray622
    1636 posts Member
    edited April 2019
    WEDWAY wrote: »
    When upgrading mods, does the order of the secondary stats play any role in the probability that the stat will increase? There are 4 secondary mod stats. Does the stat in the 1st slot have more of a chance to increase in value than the stat in slots 2, 3, and 4? Is slot 4 the least likely to increase in value when upgrading, or are all four slots equal in probability to increase in value when upgrading? Thanks.

    Update: Had forgotten about the change to second stats when slicing was updated. That explains the skew.

    They've never publicized any probabilities for slicing. However, I've sliced and upgraded thousands of mods, and never noticed skew towards certain positions.

    That being said, I've also not recorded data surrounding it. I just assume it's an equal probability.

    For fun, I just took a look at all my mods with +20 or greater speed. I have a total of 19 mods that are at +20 or above speed. The speed stat positions for those mods:
    First - 10
    Second - 6
    Third - 2
    Fourth -1

    So, out of my very limited sample size there does appear to be a skew towards the top. However, since my sample size is very small, I wouldn't draw any conclusions from it.
    Post edited by jkray622 on
  • My mod roster is the same. The reason is that back in the olden days (pre Mods 2.0) you used to only keep coloured mods that already showed speed. These mods were effectively pre-selected and promoted to see if they’d continue to proc lots of speed. Anything that didn’t already show speed was sold without upgrading. Hence the bias towards the top two slots.
  • jkray622
    1636 posts Member
    Okay, for fun I went onto SWGOH and started looking up other players. I grabbed a couple members of my guild and a couple of members of Team Instinct, and I filtered mods for Secondary Speed, then I recorded the position of their speeds for all mods at +20 or above. My results after 5-6 players and 200 mods:

    First - 80
    Second - 83
    Third - 25
    Fourth - 12

    It really seems like these results are skewed towards the top two. I wonder if anyone has a good way to extract a chunk of the mod results over the entire population. Speed mods should be a good indicator, since those are the stats that the majority of top players slice for.
  • jkray622
    1636 posts Member
    My mod roster is the same. The reason is that back in the olden days (pre Mods 2.0) you used to only keep coloured mods that already showed speed. These mods were effectively pre-selected and promoted to see if they’d continue to proc lots of speed. Anything that didn’t already show speed was sold without upgrading. Hence the bias towards the top two slots.

    Oooh, good call! I didn't consider that, and there's no way to know if a mod was obtained pre or post slicing.
  • CamaroAMF
    1281 posts Member
    jkray622 wrote: »
    WEDWAY wrote: »
    When upgrading mods, does the order of the secondary stats play any role in the probability that the stat will increase? There are 4 secondary mod stats. Does the stat in the 1st slot have more of a chance to increase in value than the stat in slots 2, 3, and 4? Is slot 4 the least likely to increase in value when upgrading, or are all four slots equal in probability to increase in value when upgrading? Thanks.

    They've never publicized any probabilities for slicing. However, I've sliced and upgraded thousands of mods, and never noticed skew towards certain positions.

    That being said, I've also not recorded data surrounding it. I just assume it's an equal probability.

    For fun, I just took a look at all my mods with +20 or greater speed. I have a total of 19 mods that are at +20 or above speed. The speed stat positions for those mods:
    First - 10
    Second - 6
    Third - 2
    Fourth -1

    So, out of my very limited sample size there does appear to be a skew towards the top. However, since my sample size is very small, I wouldn't draw any conclusions from it.

    Have to take into account how many of those are mods that were sliced to that speed. Several of my 20+ mods started life as green or blue, hit speed back before slicing was a thing (guaranteed hit on greens, good chance on blues) and then had good luck after slicing was introduced. Speed would be the first stat on a green and would be first or second on a blue for those mods.
  • jkray622 wrote: »
    WEDWAY wrote: »
    When upgrading mods, does the order of the secondary stats play any role in the probability that the stat will increase? There are 4 secondary mod stats. Does the stat in the 1st slot have more of a chance to increase in value than the stat in slots 2, 3, and 4? Is slot 4 the least likely to increase in value when upgrading, or are all four slots equal in probability to increase in value when upgrading? Thanks.

    They've never publicized any probabilities for slicing. However, I've sliced and upgraded thousands of mods, and never noticed skew towards certain positions.

    That being said, I've also not recorded data surrounding it. I just assume it's an equal probability.

    For fun, I just took a look at all my mods with +20 or greater speed. I have a total of 19 mods that are at +20 or above speed. The speed stat positions for those mods:
    First - 10
    Second - 6
    Third - 2
    Fourth -1

    So, out of my very limited sample size there does appear to be a skew towards the top. However, since my sample size is very small, I wouldn't draw any conclusions from it.

    This skew probably comes from the period of time when the lower tier mods would upgrade visible stats before adding new ones.

    For example, a blue mod showing Speed and Offense would perform two upgrades before revealing the last two secondary stats. You had a 50% chance of upgrading Speed on each of level 3 and 6. This would make it look like it historically skewed to the top positions.
  • It's 25% per stat
  • Interesting read
  • In mods 2.0 but befor that greens had a 100% blues 50% purples 33.33% and golds had a 25% chance to increase a stat
  • Ultra wrote: »
    All 4 slots have 25% chance of increasing. The first secondary isn’t more likely to increase than the second, third or fourth secondary

    Dude you literally always post stuff like this. 100% certainty about things that nobody ever claimed or stated. This makes you seem like a fool, no offense, but please stop assuming things just because they seem obvious to you. Unless it's been officially stated by the devs, or unless you are a dev or know a dev personally and this was confirmed to you, please refrain from stating things as if they are facts.
  • It's because ultra in an alt account of CG. There is no way s/he will write anything "heavily negative" or that goes against what is officially stated.
  • TOYODAcamry
    51 posts Member
    edited April 2019
    And the above post will be deleted asap by CG
    Post edited by TOYODAcamry on
  • Ultra wrote: »
    All 4 slots have 25% chance of increasing. The first secondary isn’t more likely to increase than the second, third or fourth secondary

    Dude you literally always post stuff like this. 100% certainty about things that nobody ever claimed or stated. This makes you seem like a fool, no offense, but please stop assuming things just because they seem obvious to you. Unless it's been officially stated by the devs, or unless you are a dev or know a dev personally and this was confirmed to you, please refrain from stating things as if they are facts.

    You're right, nobody at CG has confirmed this in any way. However, since mods 2.0 launched this has been accepted as fact in the forums. A quick search turned up a half a dozen posts stating the 25% chance and none of them were meet with opposition. Do you offer new information that might change our understanding of the chance of each slot upgrading?
  • 1/256 chances that the same secondary increases 5 times

    = 0,39%
  • SemiGod
    3001 posts Member
    1/4 × 1/4 × 1/4 × 1/4 = 1/256 for a God mod. Basically the odds of pulling 145 shards from a marquee pack.
  • vincentlondon
    4527 posts Member
    edited April 2019
    It s even less than that because even if it upgrade 5 times on speed, each upgrade adds between 3 to 6 speed so if you are not lucky you could get just 15 speed but if you are super lucky then you get the max = 30 speed

    Basically the odds of getting 30 speed secondary are very very very low
  • Ultra
    11491 posts Moderator
    It's because ultra in an alt account of CG. There is no way s/he will write anything "heavily negative" or that goes against what is officially stated.
    Ultra wrote: »
    All 4 slots have 25% chance of increasing. The first secondary isn’t more likely to increase than the second, third or fourth secondary

    Dude you literally always post stuff like this. 100% certainty about things that nobody ever claimed or stated. This makes you seem like a fool, no offense, but please stop assuming things just because they seem obvious to you. Unless it's been officially stated by the devs, or unless you are a dev or know a dev personally and this was confirmed to you, please refrain from stating things as if they are facts.
    That's right

    I'm a CG burner account who always posts things without any official confirmation

    Its not like I have evidence to back up my claims or anything

    x4d8omhjmfa7.png
  • Ultra wrote: »
    It's because ultra in an alt account of CG. There is no way s/he will write anything "heavily negative" or that goes against what is officially stated.
    Ultra wrote: »
    All 4 slots have 25% chance of increasing. The first secondary isn’t more likely to increase than the second, third or fourth secondary

    Dude you literally always post stuff like this. 100% certainty about things that nobody ever claimed or stated. This makes you seem like a fool, no offense, but please stop assuming things just because they seem obvious to you. Unless it's been officially stated by the devs, or unless you are a dev or know a dev personally and this was confirmed to you, please refrain from stating things as if they are facts.
    That's right

    I'm a CG burner account who always posts things without any official confirmation

    Its not like I have evidence to back up my claims or anything

    x4d8omhjmfa7.png

    Definitely more convincing to link the info like you just did here instead of a statement without explanation
  • Jenjhys
    272 posts Member
    I farm since mods 2.0... and still no secondary speed with 20+ ... when you are not lucky...
  • Ultra wrote: »
    It's because ultra in an alt account of CG. There is no way s/he will write anything "heavily negative" or that goes against what is officially stated.
    Ultra wrote: »
    All 4 slots have 25% chance of increasing. The first secondary isn’t more likely to increase than the second, third or fourth secondary

    Dude you literally always post stuff like this. 100% certainty about things that nobody ever claimed or stated. This makes you seem like a fool, no offense, but please stop assuming things just because they seem obvious to you. Unless it's been officially stated by the devs, or unless you are a dev or know a dev personally and this was confirmed to you, please refrain from stating things as if they are facts.
    That's right

    I'm a CG burner account who always posts things without any official confirmation

    Its not like I have evidence to back up my claims or anything

    x4d8omhjmfa7.png

    Definitely more convincing to link the info like you just did here instead of a statement without explanation

    It was a statement that's been generally accepted as common knowledge for many, many months now. Do you expect us to cite literally everything we say on the forums?
    https://swgoh.gg/u/ionastarbound/
    Discord: Iona Starbound#5299
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