Drop rate question

KausDebonair

Quick question about drop rates.

I’m a full subscriber to the ~33% shard drop rate. But i haven’t read anything about the data tracking for blueprints. Is it the same rate? My evidence is purely anecdotal, but it seems like blueprints are less.

Liath

I haven’t tracked anything, but my Falcon farming calculations were based on the assumption of 33% and I finished the farms as anticipated.

Manumicio

I just noticed, that in the last 7+ days of farming Bossk on the hard node i got usually 1 shard per 5 attempts/day. My feeling is, that blueprints in general are dropping less in % since the change from 8 to 5 try's.

Might be my subjective view...

Nikoms565

I'm with Liath on this one. I don't know of any tracking specifically, but when I set out to farm BH ships for the Falcon, my timing was as expected using 33% as the basis for said calculations.

jkray622

With 8 attempts, 2/8 = 25 & 3/8 = 37.5%
With 5 attempts, 1/5 = 20% & 2/5 = 40%.

So instead of most runs splitting between 2&3, players will see mostly 1&2. That will give the perception of a lower drop rate, even if it’s not.

Dirty_Litle_Smuggler

Easiest way to check is farm a node with both blueprints and shards on it (like KRU). While my experience is too small a sample size to be anything other than completely anecdotal, it does appear that it’s a toss up as to which finishes first, so they’re probably the same.

Keydash1

To add to what jkray said, assuming the 1/3 drop rate is accurate, in 5 attempts you will get:

0/5 13% of the time.
1/5 33% of the time.
2/5 33% of the time.
3/5 16% of the time.
4/5 4% of the time.
5/5 0.4% of the time.

Almost half the time you get 1 or 0. The 1s and 0s are much more memorable than the 2/3/4s, because they're so frustrating. But if you actually track all your drops for a while (say, 200 batches of 5), your numbers should be very close to the above.

Rath_Tarr

Dirty_Litle_Smuggler wrote: »

Easiest way to check is farm a node with both blueprints and shards on it (like KRU). While my experience is too small a sample size to be anything other than completely anecdotal, it does appear that it’s a toss up as to which finishes first, so they’re probably the same.

My KRU / Slicer farm was pretty close as I recall, though my Lando/Falcon farm is way off, about 50% more Falcon shards than Lando shards. Because #RNG

jkray622

Rath_Tarr wrote: »

Dirty_Litle_Smuggler wrote: »

Easiest way to check is farm a node with both blueprints and shards on it (like KRU). While my experience is too small a sample size to be anything other than completely anecdotal, it does appear that it’s a toss up as to which finishes first, so they’re probably the same.

My KRU / Slicer farm was pretty close as I recall, though my Lando/Falcon farm is way off, about 50% more Falcon shards than Lando shards. Because #RNG

Are you also getting ship shards from the Cargo Contraband event? I think there are other places you can pick up those ship blueprints that wouldn't also give Lando shards.

Galanthus

33% would be awesome. My shard farming rate is closer to 3.3% than to 33%. Basically it is so dismal as to encourage me not to even go for ship shards/ blueprints. I say this after I had a stretch of 14 days where I spent all my cantina energy plus 2 refreshes each day on Veteran Han for his shards and I got a total of 2 shards in my last sim of 2 battles. I never go more than 3 sims at a time, because I know if I use the whole allotment of energy in one shot I will either get 1 shard or none. At least it feels like I have a slightly better chance of getting something other than the trash loot that way.

KausDebonair

jkray622 wrote: »

With 8 attempts, 2/8 = 25 & 3/8 = 37.5%
With 5 attempts, 1/5 = 20% & 2/5 = 40%.

So instead of most runs splitting between 2&3, players will see mostly 1&2. That will give the perception of a lower drop rate, even if it’s not.

I understand this, but I was on the KRU & Silencer node, and taking KRU from 3* to 7* literally left me with 129 shards left on the silencer. I consistently got 4-6 shards per 10 sims compared to 2-4 blueprints.

jkray622 wrote: »

With 8 attempts, 2/8 = 25 & 3/8 = 37.5%
With 5 attempts, 1/5 = 20% & 2/5 = 40%.

So instead of most runs splitting between 2&3, players will see mostly 1&2. That will give the perception of a lower drop rate, even if it’s not.

My Bossk/HT farm was fine at 8 sims/node. But I noticed the discrepancy on KRU/Silencer, which I was getting about 16-18 sims per day, so this doesn’t really apply. But I agree with you about perception.

YaeVizsla

My Jango and Houndstooth farms finished within a day of each other.

KausDebonair wrote: »

My Bossk/HT farm was fine at 8 sims/node. But I noticed the discrepancy on KRU/Silencer, which I was getting about 16-18 sims per day, so this doesn’t really apply. But I agree with you about perception.

IIRC, KRUM's had multiple vectors that Silencer hasn't. And wasn't he a character of the month at one point?

DarthJelly

Galanthus wrote: »

33% would be awesome. My shard farming rate is closer to 3.3% than to 33%. Basically it is so dismal as to encourage me not to even go for ship shards/ blueprints. I say this after I had a stretch of 14 days where I spent all my cantina energy plus 2 refreshes each day on Veteran Han for his shards and I got a total of 2 shards in my last sim of 2 battles. I never go more than 3 sims at a time, because I know if I use the whole allotment of energy in one shot I will either get 1 shard or none. At least it feels like I have a slightly better chance of getting something other than the trash loot that way.

I tend to split my cantina so if I can do 14 battles I'll do 7/7. I used to split hard nodes 4/4 when it was eight and it feels like I get better drops doing that. Warrior (Youtube) does his farms in threes apparently, I'm no mathematician, in fact numbers really aren't my thing at all so I don't know if this is a placebo effect or if it actually works.

What I do know from my personal experience is, Jolee and T3 are absolutely not 33% of anything. My drops have been appalling for these two. Bad RNG maybe but equally it's gone on for that long noe where I can go days with a single shard (of Jolee) it makes me think otherwise.

Any one else think drop rates miraculously plummet the closer an event gets too? Again could be my imagination but it certainly feels that way to me.

Jakerz71

Wasn't storm trooper with houndstooth before jango? Because I didnt start HT until Jango was put in there and I'm almost done with Jango and need about 70 more HT.... All I know is anybody defending the 8 drop back to 5 is living in a fairy tale land. Half my guild is barely playing anymore. And all them have commented on that as the final straw. Good luck big spenders.

Nikoms565

DarthJelly wrote: »

Galanthus wrote: »

33% would be awesome. My shard farming rate is closer to 3.3% than to 33%. Basically it is so dismal as to encourage me not to even go for ship shards/ blueprints. I say this after I had a stretch of 14 days where I spent all my cantina energy plus 2 refreshes each day on Veteran Han for his shards and I got a total of 2 shards in my last sim of 2 battles. I never go more than 3 sims at a time, because I know if I use the whole allotment of energy in one shot I will either get 1 shard or none. At least it feels like I have a slightly better chance of getting something other than the trash loot that way.

I tend to split my cantina so if I can do 14 battles I'll do 7/7. I used to split hard nodes 4/4 when it was eight and it feels like I get better drops doing that. Warrior (Youtube) does his farms in threes apparently, I'm no mathematician, in fact numbers really aren't my thing at all so I don't know if this is a placebo effect or if it actually works.

What I do know from my personal experience is, Jolee and T3 are absolutely not 33% of anything. My drops have been appalling for these two. Bad RNG maybe but equally it's gone on for that long noe where I can go days with a single shard (of Jolee) it makes me think otherwise.

Any one else think drop rates miraculously plummet the closer an event gets too? Again could be my imagination but it certainly feels that way to me.

No - that doesn't happen. People/guilds have tracked the drop data when events are upcoming, during double drops, etc. CG has also stated that drop rates for character shards are constant across all nodes (i.e. they don't change the drop rates).

And that drop rate is 30-33% (depending on whose data you use). Always. Seriously, if you do a forum search and ignore all of the "I feel" or "For the past 3 days" anectodal posts, and read the ones where people have actually tracked drop rates across a significant sample size is ALWAYS lands between 30-33% for character shards. Regardless as to where.

Human beings are notoriously bad at "sensing" true RNG and variance - that's part of the reason casinos make so much money (they don't build multi-million dollar casinos because they lose money).

DarthJelly

Can't argue there. My senses are clearly off. There could also be the distinct possibility my inner child acts out at the point I get zero shards. Although, my Jolee shard drops have been appalling. RNGesus must not like me at the minute.

jkray622

Jakerz71 wrote: »

All I know is anybody defending the 8 drop back to 5 is living in a fairy tale land.

I don't see anyone on this thread "Defending" the reduction to 5 attempts per refresh. We are just discussing whether or not the drop rate also changed at the same time, versus people perceiving a different drop rate, and what might contribute to that.

KausDebonair

YaeVizsla wrote: »

My Jango and Houndstooth farms finished within a day of each other.

KausDebonair wrote: »

My Bossk/HT farm was fine at 8 sims/node. But I noticed the discrepancy on KRU/Silencer, which I was getting about 16-18 sims per day, so this doesn’t really apply. But I agree with you about perception.

IIRC, KRUM's had multiple vectors that Silencer hasn't. And wasn't he a character of the month at one point?

That’s definitely a possibility, but it doesn’t explain how I was getting (most of the time) double the KRU shards compared to Silencer Blueprints since the beginning of the farm, regardless of where they both started

KausDebonair

I mainly want to know if ship blueprints have a different drop rate than toon shards, because it really seems like it. Except HT. The other BH ships I recently started farming are also giving me garbage drop rates. Like 3 total in 6 days between both Xanadu and IG. Which I know is a small sample size, but still. It’s abnormal for me for it not to even out.

Rath_Tarr

jkray622 wrote: »

Rath_Tarr wrote: »

Dirty_Litle_Smuggler wrote: »

Easiest way to check is farm a node with both blueprints and shards on it (like KRU). While my experience is too small a sample size to be anything other than completely anecdotal, it does appear that it’s a toss up as to which finishes first, so they’re probably the same.

My KRU / Slicer farm was pretty close as I recall, though my Lando/Falcon farm is way off, about 50% more Falcon shards than Lando shards. Because #RNG

Are you also getting ship shards from the Cargo Contraband event? I think there are other places you can pick up those ship blueprints that wouldn't also give Lando shards.

Yes, you are correct. I remembered as I was doing Contraband Cargo this morning that at least some of those LMF shards came from that event. I don't believe that accounts for all of them however. I am at 146 YLando vs 202 LMF. The Cargo event isn't that frequent, the drops are random and it's been a while since I did anything below max tier which doesn't give shards.

To be clear, I am not suggesting that the drop rates are set differently - I don't think they are - just that RNG can be funny sometimes.