1/20 for Juhani today

Another coincidence, and another and another and another and another, man I must be in the unluckiest player group basically for 3 years since I started playing along with a ton of other people. Makes sense, actually it doesn't, it only adds to the evidence and before you say "your sample size is too small", let time tell you that I put together every time people said the sample size was so small, it would actually end up being more than sufficient. CG stop throttling players, it's dishonorable

Replies

  • No_Try
    4051 posts Member
    That's absolute and definite proof they nerfed your droprates specifically. Thanks for awekening all of us **** xD
  • TVF
    23409 posts Member
    Sigh.
    TVF's guild is recruiting. Say hi in our Discord! https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • APX_919
    2405 posts Member
    Another coincidence, and another and another and another and another, man I must be in the unluckiest player group basically for 3 years since I started playing along with a ton of other people. Makes sense, actually it doesn't, it only adds to the evidence and before you say "your sample size is too small", let time tell you that I put together every time people said the sample size was so small, it would actually end up being more than sufficient. CG stop throttling players, it's dishonorable

    Proof or it is anecdotal evidence. No evidence of throttling drops (per CG and per most of the community). Bad luck can and does happen along with bad runs. And your sample size does not bring the p value below 0.05 so statistically it is irrelevant. A sample size of 1500 attempts would be more than sufficient.
    "Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen...mostly"
  • APX_919 wrote: »
    Another coincidence, and another and another and another and another, man I must be in the unluckiest player group basically for 3 years since I started playing along with a ton of other people. Makes sense, actually it doesn't, it only adds to the evidence and before you say "your sample size is too small", let time tell you that I put together every time people said the sample size was so small, it would actually end up being more than sufficient. CG stop throttling players, it's dishonorable

    Proof or it is anecdotal evidence. No evidence of throttling drops (per CG and per most of the community). Bad luck can and does happen along with bad runs. And your sample size does not bring the p value below 0.05 so statistically it is irrelevant. A sample size of 1500 attempts would be more than sufficient.

    It's not anecdotal when it happens over and over and over AND OVER..... Again
  • I was 4/10, pretty consistent for me lately
  • No_Try
    4051 posts Member
    edited June 2019
    This is how I would do it if they hired me.

    3hebvvlaip9q.jpg

  • APX_919
    2405 posts Member
    APX_919 wrote: »
    Another coincidence, and another and another and another and another, man I must be in the unluckiest player group basically for 3 years since I started playing along with a ton of other people. Makes sense, actually it doesn't, it only adds to the evidence and before you say "your sample size is too small", let time tell you that I put together every time people said the sample size was so small, it would actually end up being more than sufficient. CG stop throttling players, it's dishonorable

    Proof or it is anecdotal evidence. No evidence of throttling drops (per CG and per most of the community). Bad luck can and does happen along with bad runs. And your sample size does not bring the p value below 0.05 so statistically it is irrelevant. A sample size of 1500 attempts would be more than sufficient.

    It's not anecdotal when it happens over and over and over AND OVER..... Again

    So post for me your runs over 1500 attempts. If your luck holds out it should only be 75 shards and you have proven you are correct and sadly the unluckiest guy in SWGOH. However I suspect it won't be as bad as that and you will have closer to 350 shards over that time span.
    "Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen...mostly"
  • Waqui
    7335 posts Member
    APX_919 wrote: »
    Another coincidence, and another and another and another and another, man I must be in the unluckiest player group basically for 3 years since I started playing along with a ton of other people. Makes sense, actually it doesn't, it only adds to the evidence and before you say "your sample size is too small", let time tell you that I put together every time people said the sample size was so small, it would actually end up being more than sufficient. CG stop throttling players, it's dishonorable

    Proof or it is anecdotal evidence. No evidence of throttling drops (per CG and per most of the community). Bad luck can and does happen along with bad runs. And your sample size does not bring the p value below 0.05 so statistically it is irrelevant. A sample size of 1500 attempts would be more than sufficient.

    It's not anecdotal when it happens over and over and over AND OVER..... Again

    Again and again? Seems quite anecdotal to me. Track your drops over an extended number of attempts. Yes, for real. Track it. Take notes. I'm sure, your notes will prove, that your drop rate is nothing unusual.
  • TVF
    23409 posts Member
    APX_919 wrote: »
    Another coincidence, and another and another and another and another, man I must be in the unluckiest player group basically for 3 years since I started playing along with a ton of other people. Makes sense, actually it doesn't, it only adds to the evidence and before you say "your sample size is too small", let time tell you that I put together every time people said the sample size was so small, it would actually end up being more than sufficient. CG stop throttling players, it's dishonorable

    Proof or it is anecdotal evidence. No evidence of throttling drops (per CG and per most of the community). Bad luck can and does happen along with bad runs. And your sample size does not bring the p value below 0.05 so statistically it is irrelevant. A sample size of 1500 attempts would be more than sufficient.

    It's not anecdotal when it happens over and over and over AND OVER..... Again

    You are proving our point.
    TVF's guild is recruiting. Say hi in our Discord! https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • Kyno
    23957 posts Moderator
    Another coincidence, and another and another and another and another, man I must be in the unluckiest player group basically for 3 years since I started playing along with a ton of other people. Makes sense, actually it doesn't, it only adds to the evidence and before you say "your sample size is too small", let time tell you that I put together every time people said the sample size was so small, it would actually end up being more than sufficient. CG stop throttling players, it's dishonorable

    Record your data and present it. That is how it works. making baseless claims is dishonorable.
  • YaeVizsla
    3432 posts Member
    It's not anecdotal when it happens over and over and over AND OVER..... Again
    That's literally what is supposed to happen when the drop rate is one in three.

    Nowadays, most hard mode sims are done in sets of five. The way the math pans out on that set are approximately a 1/6 chance of no shards, a 1/3 chance of 1 shard, a 1/3 chance of 2 shards, and a 1/6 chance of 3 or more shards.

    The event in the title is like rolling four dice and getting three ones and a three. It's like losing a coin toss four times. Yeah, it's bad luck, but it's not exactly outrageous, and it will happen.
    Often. Especially when a lot of dice get thrown around.

    My normal routine has ten parallel farms. That's ten consecutive sets of five. When getting a 1/20 scale run is failing four coin tosses, I can expect to see an event around that level every two or three days.
    Still not a he.
  • Ultra
    5855 posts Member
    2 days ago my Droideka was 98/100 and I did Sim x2 right after my midnight reset and got 2/2 shards

    Please explain what this means PeterBahamas
  • APX_919
    2405 posts Member
    Ultra wrote: »
    2 days ago my Droideka was 98/100 and I did Sim x2 right after my midnight reset and got 2/2 shards

    Please explain what this means PeterBahamas

    That name no longer has any meaning for him. He is now Darth Baldinghead 90.
    "Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen...mostly"
  • TVF
    23409 posts Member
    APX_919 wrote: »
    Ultra wrote: »
    2 days ago my Droideka was 98/100 and I did Sim x2 right after my midnight reset and got 2/2 shards

    Please explain what this means PeterBahamas

    That name no longer has any meaning for him. He is now Darth Baldinghead 90.

    PeterBahamas? PeterBahamas.....now there's a name I've not heard in a long, long time.
    TVF's guild is recruiting. Say hi in our Discord! https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • Liath
    5085 posts Member
    Yes, if you put together all of the bad days and leave out all the normal/good days, then it will look like a larger sample size of bad drops, but still won’t actually be relevant to anything.
  • Huatimus
    3669 posts Member
    APX_919 wrote: »
    Ultra wrote: »
    2 days ago my Droideka was 98/100 and I did Sim x2 right after my midnight reset and got 2/2 shards

    Please explain what this means PeterBahamas

    That name no longer has any meaning for him. He is now Darth Baldinghead 90.

    More like DishonorableHead90.
  • Strojař
    115 posts Member
    edited June 2019
    We all know how are you feeling. But you keep playing this for three years so i assume you don't have bad runs all the time. Keep playing/ or don't.. it's a game of nerves :)
  • UdalCuain
    3436 posts Member
    I'm at 24/32 (12 drops from 16 battles). Finished farming her today. Guess my good luck balances out your poor luck.
  • Waqui
    7335 posts Member
    edited June 2019
    Another coincidence, and another and another and another and another, man I must be in the unluckiest player group basically for 3 years since I started playing along with a ton of other people. Makes sense, actually it doesn't, it only adds to the evidence and before you say "your sample size is too small", let time tell you that I put together every time people said the sample size was so small, it would actually end up being more than sufficient. CG stop throttling players, it's dishonorable

    So, after 3 entire years in the game you still haven't figured out how RNG and drop rates work? Even if posters here on these forums have explained it to you again and again and again and again?

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