Why has Gen Grevious gone missing from my Fleet Store?

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• 775 posts Member
CCyrilS wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
CCyrilS wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion2 wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
CCyrilS wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
CCyrilS wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Liath wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
TVF wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
However you made it sound as if RNG is the only thing affecting GGs show up rate and in that is where you and I disagree.

I never said that though, and I don't believe it, so we can't disagree on it.

But you only mentioned the rng part, so any respectful disagreer would infer you didn’t believe GG was weighted lower.

That would not be a reasonable inference since RNG does not mean and has never meant that all options are weighted equally.

I respectfully disagree. His simple statement of “Its RNG” implies that GG showing is as random as any of the others showing.

I don't think that's how most ppl understand it. I wouldn't assume anything one way or the other.

Let’s say there are 5 chars that show in that spot.

GG has been coded to show 10% of the time and the other 4 are coded to show 22.5% of the time.

That’s not random, that’s not rng

Yes it is... you don’t know how loot boxes work, do you?

Loot boxes are coded in several different ways.

5 chars with each having a 20% chance of showing is as random as a seeded rng can be.

5 chars with one having a significantly less % chance of showing is not random.

Yes it is.

Let’s go back to percentages in math. Dice are always random. If you roll a die, every side has the same chance of being rolled correct? So let’s say we still have six sides, but the number one occupies one side, the number two occupies two sides, and the number three occupies three sides. The die has a bigger chance of landing on three, but it still has to roll, making the end result: random. Just because it’s weighted doesn’t change the fact that it’s random. It’s not a set figure; which means you could roll the one a hundred times in a row.

Ok, putting aside true randomness of a seeded computer generated number vs dice or cards, to me random means an equal chance of happening in the context of this discussion.

If I were to tell someone it’s random that GG shows up in a slot with 4 other chars, that person could reasonably assume that GG had a 20% chance of showing up.

If in fact GG only had a 10% chance of showing up in that scenario, then telling that person It’s random when GG shows up, I wouldn’t be telling the whole truth.

Doesn’t matter, TVF conceded that most likely GG is weighted to show up less often than the other chars in that spot.

1.
made, done, happening, or chosen without method or conscious decision.

Googles definition of random. The outcomes aren’t required to be of equal standing.

I’ll make this easy. It’s still RNG because “weighted” is a form of RNG.

I’ll make it even easier.

You take GG and I’ll take Tarkin.

I’ll track with screenshots 3x a day for the next year in ship shop that spot.

Every time GG shows I’ll pay you \$1 and every time Tarkin shows, you pay me \$1.

If it’s random, we’ll probably break close to even, but if it’s not random and I have found a pattern in my favor, then you’ll be paying me at the end of a year.

No!
Not true at all, because they may be weighted differently, even though they are RANDOM.

Fine by me if you want to call it random.

I happen to believe there is an identifiable pattern that I’m willing to put my money behind.

Same bet as I offered nihion, please take it.

We all agree that GG shows up less. No one will take that bet. We’ve established that.

RNG can be weighted, but it is still RNG, REGARDLESS. “Random” means “roll of the dice”, or “spin the wheel”, you name it. It can be weighted, but it doesn’t change the fact that it’s random.

No one in this thread agreed that GG shows up less, until I said something. TVF said it after his initial post of “it’s rng”. First time you have said that, fact.

I would never bet on randomness, but I will definitely bet when I observe a pattern.

GG doesn’t show up in that spot randomly, he shows up less frequently than the other chars, which is an identifiable pattern that I’m willing to put my money on.

This thread was about GG not showing up in fleet shop and several people said, bad luck man, rng bro and I said, nope it’s not bad luck or rng, he’s weighted not to show up as often.

It’s not rng or confirmation bias that leads people to believe GG isnt showing as much, it’s simple weighting.

Getting 10% drop rate on a node that enough data shows is really 20% can be rng or confirmation bias, but this time, this particular instance, I believe and am willing to bet that the show rate for GG is different than the other chars in that slot, making it predictable enough and not random to make a wager on.

And we agreed with you! But you stopped caring about what other people said I guess.

Do you think that character farms are not RNG dependent? Because they're also weighted. It's not a 50% chance to get a shard, but that's RNG! It takes the drop rates into account and randomly decides what you get. Same with GG. He has a lower drop rate, so it will be more unlikely that he shows up because the random roll won't land on him as much. If it wasn't random, then he would have a set schedule. Weighted RNG is a type of RNG. I don't think theyre is anything in this game that is just weighted, because that's not a thing. That would be like he only shows up on Tuesdays or something.

Like I said earlier, there was a period in time where I thought I didn't see GG for a while. And that's because it's RNG. And CG had every right to make it weighted.

Wait, so how many nihions are there? Seems this debate is weighted toward nihions.

There are lots of areas in the game where “it’s rng bro” is correct and appropriate. This particular conversation is not one of them. GG not showing up for weeks is not bad luck or RNG, its because he’s coded not to show up very often so the swings are even bigger.

People throw the term rng around loosely on these forums.

If you and I grind the same amount of mods and I roll better speed on mine, thats rng. If you and I both grind the same amount of cantina energy on brood alpha for a month and I’m ahead in shard count, thats rng. GG being a freaking ghost in fleet shop vs the other chars in that slot is not bad luck or “RNG”, it’s because it’s coded for him to show less.

Yes! It's coded AND rng. The weight doesn't make it not random!

The weight is what makes it not random.

WRONG

• 4166 posts Member
ZAP wrote: »
CCyrilS wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
CCyrilS wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion2 wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
CCyrilS wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
CCyrilS wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Liath wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
TVF wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
However you made it sound as if RNG is the only thing affecting GGs show up rate and in that is where you and I disagree.

I never said that though, and I don't believe it, so we can't disagree on it.

But you only mentioned the rng part, so any respectful disagreer would infer you didn’t believe GG was weighted lower.

That would not be a reasonable inference since RNG does not mean and has never meant that all options are weighted equally.

I respectfully disagree. His simple statement of “Its RNG” implies that GG showing is as random as any of the others showing.

I don't think that's how most ppl understand it. I wouldn't assume anything one way or the other.

Let’s say there are 5 chars that show in that spot.

GG has been coded to show 10% of the time and the other 4 are coded to show 22.5% of the time.

That’s not random, that’s not rng

Yes it is... you don’t know how loot boxes work, do you?

Loot boxes are coded in several different ways.

5 chars with each having a 20% chance of showing is as random as a seeded rng can be.

5 chars with one having a significantly less % chance of showing is not random.

Yes it is.

Let’s go back to percentages in math. Dice are always random. If you roll a die, every side has the same chance of being rolled correct? So let’s say we still have six sides, but the number one occupies one side, the number two occupies two sides, and the number three occupies three sides. The die has a bigger chance of landing on three, but it still has to roll, making the end result: random. Just because it’s weighted doesn’t change the fact that it’s random. It’s not a set figure; which means you could roll the one a hundred times in a row.

Ok, putting aside true randomness of a seeded computer generated number vs dice or cards, to me random means an equal chance of happening in the context of this discussion.

If I were to tell someone it’s random that GG shows up in a slot with 4 other chars, that person could reasonably assume that GG had a 20% chance of showing up.

If in fact GG only had a 10% chance of showing up in that scenario, then telling that person It’s random when GG shows up, I wouldn’t be telling the whole truth.

Doesn’t matter, TVF conceded that most likely GG is weighted to show up less often than the other chars in that spot.

1.
made, done, happening, or chosen without method or conscious decision.

Googles definition of random. The outcomes aren’t required to be of equal standing.

I’ll make this easy. It’s still RNG because “weighted” is a form of RNG.

I’ll make it even easier.

You take GG and I’ll take Tarkin.

I’ll track with screenshots 3x a day for the next year in ship shop that spot.

Every time GG shows I’ll pay you \$1 and every time Tarkin shows, you pay me \$1.

If it’s random, we’ll probably break close to even, but if it’s not random and I have found a pattern in my favor, then you’ll be paying me at the end of a year.

No!
Not true at all, because they may be weighted differently, even though they are RANDOM.

Fine by me if you want to call it random.

I happen to believe there is an identifiable pattern that I’m willing to put my money behind.

Same bet as I offered nihion, please take it.

We all agree that GG shows up less. No one will take that bet. We’ve established that.

RNG can be weighted, but it is still RNG, REGARDLESS. “Random” means “roll of the dice”, or “spin the wheel”, you name it. It can be weighted, but it doesn’t change the fact that it’s random.

No one in this thread agreed that GG shows up less, until I said something. TVF said it after his initial post of “it’s rng”. First time you have said that, fact.

I would never bet on randomness, but I will definitely bet when I observe a pattern.

GG doesn’t show up in that spot randomly, he shows up less frequently than the other chars, which is an identifiable pattern that I’m willing to put my money on.

This thread was about GG not showing up in fleet shop and several people said, bad luck man, rng bro and I said, nope it’s not bad luck or rng, he’s weighted not to show up as often.

It’s not rng or confirmation bias that leads people to believe GG isnt showing as much, it’s simple weighting.

Getting 10% drop rate on a node that enough data shows is really 20% can be rng or confirmation bias, but this time, this particular instance, I believe and am willing to bet that the show rate for GG is different than the other chars in that slot, making it predictable enough and not random to make a wager on.

And we agreed with you! But you stopped caring about what other people said I guess.

Do you think that character farms are not RNG dependent? Because they're also weighted. It's not a 50% chance to get a shard, but that's RNG! It takes the drop rates into account and randomly decides what you get. Same with GG. He has a lower drop rate, so it will be more unlikely that he shows up because the random roll won't land on him as much. If it wasn't random, then he would have a set schedule. Weighted RNG is a type of RNG. I don't think theyre is anything in this game that is just weighted, because that's not a thing. That would be like he only shows up on Tuesdays or something.

Like I said earlier, there was a period in time where I thought I didn't see GG for a while. And that's because it's RNG. And CG had every right to make it weighted.

Wait, so how many nihions are there? Seems this debate is weighted toward nihions.

There are lots of areas in the game where “it’s rng bro” is correct and appropriate. This particular conversation is not one of them. GG not showing up for weeks is not bad luck or RNG, its because he’s coded not to show up very often so the swings are even bigger.

People throw the term rng around loosely on these forums.

If you and I grind the same amount of mods and I roll better speed on mine, thats rng. If you and I both grind the same amount of cantina energy on brood alpha for a month and I’m ahead in shard count, thats rng. GG being a freaking ghost in fleet shop vs the other chars in that slot is not bad luck or “RNG”, it’s because it’s coded for him to show less.

Yes! It's coded AND rng. The weight doesn't make it not random!

The weight is what makes it not random.

WRONG

I don't need to. It's the fact of the definition of random. Whether or not you believe it is irrelevant to reality. Understand it or don't, it's still how it is.
• 2713 posts Member
ZAP wrote: »
CCyrilS wrote: »
Yes! It's coded AND rng. The weight doesn't make it not random!

The weight is what makes it not random.

• 775 posts Member
CCyrilS wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
CCyrilS wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
CCyrilS wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion2 wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
CCyrilS wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
CCyrilS wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Liath wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
TVF wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
However you made it sound as if RNG is the only thing affecting GGs show up rate and in that is where you and I disagree.

I never said that though, and I don't believe it, so we can't disagree on it.

But you only mentioned the rng part, so any respectful disagreer would infer you didn’t believe GG was weighted lower.

That would not be a reasonable inference since RNG does not mean and has never meant that all options are weighted equally.

I respectfully disagree. His simple statement of “Its RNG” implies that GG showing is as random as any of the others showing.

I don't think that's how most ppl understand it. I wouldn't assume anything one way or the other.

Let’s say there are 5 chars that show in that spot.

GG has been coded to show 10% of the time and the other 4 are coded to show 22.5% of the time.

That’s not random, that’s not rng

Yes it is... you don’t know how loot boxes work, do you?

Loot boxes are coded in several different ways.

5 chars with each having a 20% chance of showing is as random as a seeded rng can be.

5 chars with one having a significantly less % chance of showing is not random.

Yes it is.

Let’s go back to percentages in math. Dice are always random. If you roll a die, every side has the same chance of being rolled correct? So let’s say we still have six sides, but the number one occupies one side, the number two occupies two sides, and the number three occupies three sides. The die has a bigger chance of landing on three, but it still has to roll, making the end result: random. Just because it’s weighted doesn’t change the fact that it’s random. It’s not a set figure; which means you could roll the one a hundred times in a row.

Ok, putting aside true randomness of a seeded computer generated number vs dice or cards, to me random means an equal chance of happening in the context of this discussion.

If I were to tell someone it’s random that GG shows up in a slot with 4 other chars, that person could reasonably assume that GG had a 20% chance of showing up.

If in fact GG only had a 10% chance of showing up in that scenario, then telling that person It’s random when GG shows up, I wouldn’t be telling the whole truth.

Doesn’t matter, TVF conceded that most likely GG is weighted to show up less often than the other chars in that spot.

1.
made, done, happening, or chosen without method or conscious decision.

Googles definition of random. The outcomes aren’t required to be of equal standing.

I’ll make this easy. It’s still RNG because “weighted” is a form of RNG.

I’ll make it even easier.

You take GG and I’ll take Tarkin.

I’ll track with screenshots 3x a day for the next year in ship shop that spot.

Every time GG shows I’ll pay you \$1 and every time Tarkin shows, you pay me \$1.

If it’s random, we’ll probably break close to even, but if it’s not random and I have found a pattern in my favor, then you’ll be paying me at the end of a year.

No!
Not true at all, because they may be weighted differently, even though they are RANDOM.

Fine by me if you want to call it random.

I happen to believe there is an identifiable pattern that I’m willing to put my money behind.

Same bet as I offered nihion, please take it.

We all agree that GG shows up less. No one will take that bet. We’ve established that.

RNG can be weighted, but it is still RNG, REGARDLESS. “Random” means “roll of the dice”, or “spin the wheel”, you name it. It can be weighted, but it doesn’t change the fact that it’s random.

No one in this thread agreed that GG shows up less, until I said something. TVF said it after his initial post of “it’s rng”. First time you have said that, fact.

I would never bet on randomness, but I will definitely bet when I observe a pattern.

GG doesn’t show up in that spot randomly, he shows up less frequently than the other chars, which is an identifiable pattern that I’m willing to put my money on.

This thread was about GG not showing up in fleet shop and several people said, bad luck man, rng bro and I said, nope it’s not bad luck or rng, he’s weighted not to show up as often.

It’s not rng or confirmation bias that leads people to believe GG isnt showing as much, it’s simple weighting.

Getting 10% drop rate on a node that enough data shows is really 20% can be rng or confirmation bias, but this time, this particular instance, I believe and am willing to bet that the show rate for GG is different than the other chars in that slot, making it predictable enough and not random to make a wager on.

And we agreed with you! But you stopped caring about what other people said I guess.

Do you think that character farms are not RNG dependent? Because they're also weighted. It's not a 50% chance to get a shard, but that's RNG! It takes the drop rates into account and randomly decides what you get. Same with GG. He has a lower drop rate, so it will be more unlikely that he shows up because the random roll won't land on him as much. If it wasn't random, then he would have a set schedule. Weighted RNG is a type of RNG. I don't think theyre is anything in this game that is just weighted, because that's not a thing. That would be like he only shows up on Tuesdays or something.

Like I said earlier, there was a period in time where I thought I didn't see GG for a while. And that's because it's RNG. And CG had every right to make it weighted.

Wait, so how many nihions are there? Seems this debate is weighted toward nihions.

There are lots of areas in the game where “it’s rng bro” is correct and appropriate. This particular conversation is not one of them. GG not showing up for weeks is not bad luck or RNG, its because he’s coded not to show up very often so the swings are even bigger.

People throw the term rng around loosely on these forums.

If you and I grind the same amount of mods and I roll better speed on mine, thats rng. If you and I both grind the same amount of cantina energy on brood alpha for a month and I’m ahead in shard count, thats rng. GG being a freaking ghost in fleet shop vs the other chars in that slot is not bad luck or “RNG”, it’s because it’s coded for him to show less.

Yes! It's coded AND rng. The weight doesn't make it not random!

The weight is what makes it not random.

WRONG

I don't need to. It's the fact of the definition of random. Whether or not you believe it is irrelevant to reality. Understand it or don't, it's still how it is.

Not in this instance.

I understand it perfectly.

Context and staying on topic of this thread is key.

9 times out of 10, when someone on this forum says, “its rng” they mean it’s bad luck. Rarely is the term here used for good luck, so a pattern on this forum has been established when using the term, “it’s rng”.

TVF is more often than not a CG/EA/SWGOH protagonist/sympathizer, so assuming when he says its rng that someone doesn't see GG, he means its bad luck or completely random that the person didn’t see GG for a long time, when in reality its the fact that GG is coded to show far less than anyone else in that slot.

At the very least it was disingenuous for TVF to state, “its rng” especially if he knows GG shows less than anyone else.

I’m not debating the complexity of rng, I’m debating how TVF used it in this thread and how it’s used in many threads on this forum.

• 775 posts Member
Nihion2 wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
CCyrilS wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
CCyrilS wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Liath wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
TVF wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
However you made it sound as if RNG is the only thing affecting GGs show up rate and in that is where you and I disagree.

I never said that though, and I don't believe it, so we can't disagree on it.

But you only mentioned the rng part, so any respectful disagreer would infer you didn’t believe GG was weighted lower.

That would not be a reasonable inference since RNG does not mean and has never meant that all options are weighted equally.

I respectfully disagree. His simple statement of “Its RNG” implies that GG showing is as random as any of the others showing.

I don't think that's how most ppl understand it. I wouldn't assume anything one way or the other.

Let’s say there are 5 chars that show in that spot.

GG has been coded to show 10% of the time and the other 4 are coded to show 22.5% of the time.

That’s not random, that’s not rng

Yes it is... you don’t know how loot boxes work, do you?

Loot boxes are coded in several different ways.

5 chars with each having a 20% chance of showing is as random as a seeded rng can be.

5 chars with one having a significantly less % chance of showing is not random.

Yes it is.

Let’s go back to percentages in math. Dice are always random. If you roll a die, every side has the same chance of being rolled correct? So let’s say we still have six sides, but the number one occupies one side, the number two occupies two sides, and the number three occupies three sides. The die has a bigger chance of landing on three, but it still has to roll, making the end result: random. Just because it’s weighted doesn’t change the fact that it’s random. It’s not a set figure; which means you could roll the one a hundred times in a row.

Ok, putting aside true randomness of a seeded computer generated number vs dice or cards, to me random means an equal chance of happening in the context of this discussion.

If I were to tell someone it’s random that GG shows up in a slot with 4 other chars, that person could reasonably assume that GG had a 20% chance of showing up.

If in fact GG only had a 10% chance of showing up in that scenario, then telling that person It’s random when GG shows up, I wouldn’t be telling the whole truth.

Doesn’t matter, TVF conceded that most likely GG is weighted to show up less often than the other chars in that spot.

1.
made, done, happening, or chosen without method or conscious decision.

Googles definition of random. The outcomes aren’t required to be of equal standing.

I’ll make this easy. It’s still RNG because “weighted” is a form of RNG.

I’ll make it even easier.

You take GG and I’ll take Tarkin.

I’ll track with screenshots 3x a day for the next year in ship shop that spot.

Every time GG shows I’ll pay you \$1 and every time Tarkin shows, you pay me \$1.

If it’s random, we’ll probably break close to even, but if it’s not random and I have found a pattern in my favor, then you’ll be paying me at the end of a year.

No!
Not true at all, because they may be weighted differently, even though they are RANDOM.

Fine by me if you want to call it random.

I happen to believe there is an identifiable pattern that I’m willing to put my money behind.

Same bet as I offered nihion, please take it.

We all agree that GG shows up less. No one will take that bet. We’ve established that.

RNG can be weighted, but it is still RNG, REGARDLESS. “Random” means “roll of the dice”, or “spin the wheel”, you name it. It can be weighted, but it doesn’t change the fact that it’s random.

No one in this thread agreed that GG shows up less, until I said something. TVF said it after his initial post of “it’s rng”. First time you have said that, fact.

I would never bet on randomness, but I will definitely bet when I observe a pattern.

GG doesn’t show up in that spot randomly, he shows up less frequently than the other chars, which is an identifiable pattern that I’m willing to put my money on.

This thread was about GG not showing up in fleet shop and several people said, bad luck man, rng bro and I said, nope it’s not bad luck or rng, he’s weighted not to show up as often.

It’s not rng or confirmation bias that leads people to believe GG isnt showing as much, it’s simple weighting.

Getting 10% drop rate on a node that enough data shows is really 20% can be rng or confirmation bias, but this time, this particular instance, I believe and am willing to bet that the show rate for GG is different than the other chars in that slot, making it predictable enough and not random to make a wager on.

And we agreed with you! But you stopped caring about what other people said I guess.

Do you think that character farms are not RNG dependent? Because they're also weighted. It's not a 50% chance to get a shard, but that's RNG! It takes the drop rates into account and randomly decides what you get. Same with GG. He has a lower drop rate, so it will be more unlikely that he shows up because the random roll won't land on him as much. If it wasn't random, then he would have a set schedule. Weighted RNG is a type of RNG. I don't think theyre is anything in this game that is just weighted, because that's not a thing. That would be like he only shows up on Tuesdays or something.

Like I said earlier, there was a period in time where I thought I didn't see GG for a while. And that's because it's RNG. And CG had every right to make it weighted.

Where exactly did you agree with me?

I’ve read through the entire thread and this is the first post of yours that I see. Either you agreed with me earlier in the thread or you’re a liar.

Like you said earlier? Where exactly did you say anything earlier? Unless your post was deleted, or you’re using multiple accounts, you said nothing earlier here in this thread, this is your first post.

• 19713 posts Member
ZAP wrote: »
CCyrilS wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
CCyrilS wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion2 wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
CCyrilS wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
CCyrilS wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Liath wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
TVF wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
However you made it sound as if RNG is the only thing affecting GGs show up rate and in that is where you and I disagree.

I never said that though, and I don't believe it, so we can't disagree on it.

But you only mentioned the rng part, so any respectful disagreer would infer you didn’t believe GG was weighted lower.

That would not be a reasonable inference since RNG does not mean and has never meant that all options are weighted equally.

I respectfully disagree. His simple statement of “Its RNG” implies that GG showing is as random as any of the others showing.

I don't think that's how most ppl understand it. I wouldn't assume anything one way or the other.

Let’s say there are 5 chars that show in that spot.

GG has been coded to show 10% of the time and the other 4 are coded to show 22.5% of the time.

That’s not random, that’s not rng

Yes it is... you don’t know how loot boxes work, do you?

Loot boxes are coded in several different ways.

5 chars with each having a 20% chance of showing is as random as a seeded rng can be.

5 chars with one having a significantly less % chance of showing is not random.

Yes it is.

Let’s go back to percentages in math. Dice are always random. If you roll a die, every side has the same chance of being rolled correct? So let’s say we still have six sides, but the number one occupies one side, the number two occupies two sides, and the number three occupies three sides. The die has a bigger chance of landing on three, but it still has to roll, making the end result: random. Just because it’s weighted doesn’t change the fact that it’s random. It’s not a set figure; which means you could roll the one a hundred times in a row.

Ok, putting aside true randomness of a seeded computer generated number vs dice or cards, to me random means an equal chance of happening in the context of this discussion.

If I were to tell someone it’s random that GG shows up in a slot with 4 other chars, that person could reasonably assume that GG had a 20% chance of showing up.

If in fact GG only had a 10% chance of showing up in that scenario, then telling that person It’s random when GG shows up, I wouldn’t be telling the whole truth.

Doesn’t matter, TVF conceded that most likely GG is weighted to show up less often than the other chars in that spot.

1.
made, done, happening, or chosen without method or conscious decision.

Googles definition of random. The outcomes aren’t required to be of equal standing.

I’ll make this easy. It’s still RNG because “weighted” is a form of RNG.

I’ll make it even easier.

You take GG and I’ll take Tarkin.

I’ll track with screenshots 3x a day for the next year in ship shop that spot.

Every time GG shows I’ll pay you \$1 and every time Tarkin shows, you pay me \$1.

If it’s random, we’ll probably break close to even, but if it’s not random and I have found a pattern in my favor, then you’ll be paying me at the end of a year.

No!
Not true at all, because they may be weighted differently, even though they are RANDOM.

Fine by me if you want to call it random.

I happen to believe there is an identifiable pattern that I’m willing to put my money behind.

Same bet as I offered nihion, please take it.

We all agree that GG shows up less. No one will take that bet. We’ve established that.

RNG can be weighted, but it is still RNG, REGARDLESS. “Random” means “roll of the dice”, or “spin the wheel”, you name it. It can be weighted, but it doesn’t change the fact that it’s random.

No one in this thread agreed that GG shows up less, until I said something. TVF said it after his initial post of “it’s rng”. First time you have said that, fact.

I would never bet on randomness, but I will definitely bet when I observe a pattern.

GG doesn’t show up in that spot randomly, he shows up less frequently than the other chars, which is an identifiable pattern that I’m willing to put my money on.

This thread was about GG not showing up in fleet shop and several people said, bad luck man, rng bro and I said, nope it’s not bad luck or rng, he’s weighted not to show up as often.

It’s not rng or confirmation bias that leads people to believe GG isnt showing as much, it’s simple weighting.

Getting 10% drop rate on a node that enough data shows is really 20% can be rng or confirmation bias, but this time, this particular instance, I believe and am willing to bet that the show rate for GG is different than the other chars in that slot, making it predictable enough and not random to make a wager on.

And we agreed with you! But you stopped caring about what other people said I guess.

Do you think that character farms are not RNG dependent? Because they're also weighted. It's not a 50% chance to get a shard, but that's RNG! It takes the drop rates into account and randomly decides what you get. Same with GG. He has a lower drop rate, so it will be more unlikely that he shows up because the random roll won't land on him as much. If it wasn't random, then he would have a set schedule. Weighted RNG is a type of RNG. I don't think theyre is anything in this game that is just weighted, because that's not a thing. That would be like he only shows up on Tuesdays or something.

Like I said earlier, there was a period in time where I thought I didn't see GG for a while. And that's because it's RNG. And CG had every right to make it weighted.

Wait, so how many nihions are there? Seems this debate is weighted toward nihions.

There are lots of areas in the game where “it’s rng bro” is correct and appropriate. This particular conversation is not one of them. GG not showing up for weeks is not bad luck or RNG, its because he’s coded not to show up very often so the swings are even bigger.

People throw the term rng around loosely on these forums.

If you and I grind the same amount of mods and I roll better speed on mine, thats rng. If you and I both grind the same amount of cantina energy on brood alpha for a month and I’m ahead in shard count, thats rng. GG being a freaking ghost in fleet shop vs the other chars in that slot is not bad luck or “RNG”, it’s because it’s coded for him to show less.

Yes! It's coded AND rng. The weight doesn't make it not random!

The weight is what makes it not random.

WRONG

Why do you keep saying this?

Everyone agrees GG shows less. We all agree that if you take Tarkin and we take GG, we will lose money.

TVF's guild is recruiting. Say hi in our Discord! https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
• 2428 posts Member
Random rolls create patterns of their random. I already explained that without the random roll, the game wouldn’t make any sense.

There is not a 50% of getting a shard on character nodes. The chance of not getting one is much higher. You could say the same thing about that: it’s not RNG because a shard does not show up 50% if the time; which is not true, and I think we can all agree on that. So by saying that GG not showing up on the node 20% of the time (because there are 4 other characters) is not RNG, you are also wrong.

If I flip a coin, the pattern is that both sides will ultimately show up the same amount. If one side of the coin was weighted (literally), then the other side would show up more, and that’s the pattern. RNG creates patterns, if it’s weighted the pattern changes.

GG is coded to be randomly rolled less, and so that’s what a pattern will show. CG has always been doing this.
• 2428 posts Member
Also calling TVF a CG employee is just a way to avoid his logic without addressing it, and does not help you in this discussion.
• 19713 posts Member
edited August 2019
ZAP wrote: »
CCyrilS wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
CCyrilS wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
CCyrilS wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion2 wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
CCyrilS wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
CCyrilS wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Liath wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
TVF wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
However you made it sound as if RNG is the only thing affecting GGs show up rate and in that is where you and I disagree.

I never said that though, and I don't believe it, so we can't disagree on it.

But you only mentioned the rng part, so any respectful disagreer would infer you didn’t believe GG was weighted lower.

That would not be a reasonable inference since RNG does not mean and has never meant that all options are weighted equally.

I respectfully disagree. His simple statement of “Its RNG” implies that GG showing is as random as any of the others showing.

I don't think that's how most ppl understand it. I wouldn't assume anything one way or the other.

Let’s say there are 5 chars that show in that spot.

GG has been coded to show 10% of the time and the other 4 are coded to show 22.5% of the time.

That’s not random, that’s not rng

Yes it is... you don’t know how loot boxes work, do you?

Loot boxes are coded in several different ways.

5 chars with each having a 20% chance of showing is as random as a seeded rng can be.

5 chars with one having a significantly less % chance of showing is not random.

Yes it is.

Let’s go back to percentages in math. Dice are always random. If you roll a die, every side has the same chance of being rolled correct? So let’s say we still have six sides, but the number one occupies one side, the number two occupies two sides, and the number three occupies three sides. The die has a bigger chance of landing on three, but it still has to roll, making the end result: random. Just because it’s weighted doesn’t change the fact that it’s random. It’s not a set figure; which means you could roll the one a hundred times in a row.

Ok, putting aside true randomness of a seeded computer generated number vs dice or cards, to me random means an equal chance of happening in the context of this discussion.

If I were to tell someone it’s random that GG shows up in a slot with 4 other chars, that person could reasonably assume that GG had a 20% chance of showing up.

If in fact GG only had a 10% chance of showing up in that scenario, then telling that person It’s random when GG shows up, I wouldn’t be telling the whole truth.

Doesn’t matter, TVF conceded that most likely GG is weighted to show up less often than the other chars in that spot.

1.
made, done, happening, or chosen without method or conscious decision.

Googles definition of random. The outcomes aren’t required to be of equal standing.

I’ll make this easy. It’s still RNG because “weighted” is a form of RNG.

I’ll make it even easier.

You take GG and I’ll take Tarkin.

I’ll track with screenshots 3x a day for the next year in ship shop that spot.

Every time GG shows I’ll pay you \$1 and every time Tarkin shows, you pay me \$1.

If it’s random, we’ll probably break close to even, but if it’s not random and I have found a pattern in my favor, then you’ll be paying me at the end of a year.

No!
Not true at all, because they may be weighted differently, even though they are RANDOM.

Fine by me if you want to call it random.

I happen to believe there is an identifiable pattern that I’m willing to put my money behind.

Same bet as I offered nihion, please take it.

We all agree that GG shows up less. No one will take that bet. We’ve established that.

RNG can be weighted, but it is still RNG, REGARDLESS. “Random” means “roll of the dice”, or “spin the wheel”, you name it. It can be weighted, but it doesn’t change the fact that it’s random.

No one in this thread agreed that GG shows up less, until I said something. TVF said it after his initial post of “it’s rng”. First time you have said that, fact.

I would never bet on randomness, but I will definitely bet when I observe a pattern.

GG doesn’t show up in that spot randomly, he shows up less frequently than the other chars, which is an identifiable pattern that I’m willing to put my money on.

This thread was about GG not showing up in fleet shop and several people said, bad luck man, rng bro and I said, nope it’s not bad luck or rng, he’s weighted not to show up as often.

It’s not rng or confirmation bias that leads people to believe GG isnt showing as much, it’s simple weighting.

Getting 10% drop rate on a node that enough data shows is really 20% can be rng or confirmation bias, but this time, this particular instance, I believe and am willing to bet that the show rate for GG is different than the other chars in that slot, making it predictable enough and not random to make a wager on.

And we agreed with you! But you stopped caring about what other people said I guess.

Do you think that character farms are not RNG dependent? Because they're also weighted. It's not a 50% chance to get a shard, but that's RNG! It takes the drop rates into account and randomly decides what you get. Same with GG. He has a lower drop rate, so it will be more unlikely that he shows up because the random roll won't land on him as much. If it wasn't random, then he would have a set schedule. Weighted RNG is a type of RNG. I don't think theyre is anything in this game that is just weighted, because that's not a thing. That would be like he only shows up on Tuesdays or something.

Like I said earlier, there was a period in time where I thought I didn't see GG for a while. And that's because it's RNG. And CG had every right to make it weighted.

Wait, so how many nihions are there? Seems this debate is weighted toward nihions.

There are lots of areas in the game where “it’s rng bro” is correct and appropriate. This particular conversation is not one of them. GG not showing up for weeks is not bad luck or RNG, its because he’s coded not to show up very often so the swings are even bigger.

People throw the term rng around loosely on these forums.

If you and I grind the same amount of mods and I roll better speed on mine, thats rng. If you and I both grind the same amount of cantina energy on brood alpha for a month and I’m ahead in shard count, thats rng. GG being a freaking ghost in fleet shop vs the other chars in that slot is not bad luck or “RNG”, it’s because it’s coded for him to show less.

Yes! It's coded AND rng. The weight doesn't make it not random!

The weight is what makes it not random.

WRONG

I don't need to. It's the fact of the definition of random. Whether or not you believe it is irrelevant to reality. Understand it or don't, it's still how it is.

Not in this instance.

I understand it perfectly.

Context and staying on topic of this thread is key.

9 times out of 10, when someone on this forum says, “its rng” they mean it’s bad luck. Rarely is the term here used for good luck, so a pattern on this forum has been established when using the term, “it’s rng”.

TVF is more often than not a CG/EA/SWGOH protagonist/sympathizer, so assuming when he says its rng that someone doesn't see GG, he means its bad luck or completely random that the person didn’t see GG for a long time, when in reality its the fact that GG is coded to show far less than anyone else in that slot.

At the very least it was disingenuous for TVF to state, “its rng” especially if he knows GG shows less than anyone else.

I’m not debating the complexity of rng, I’m debating how TVF used it in this thread and how it’s used in many threads on this forum.

@ZAP I just read this and I disagree with your characterization of my statement and my intent. But regardless, it's time to move past what I said and how you interpreted it.

1) GG has a lower chance of showing up because the odds are weighted
2) Those odds have not changed because of any upcoming events or current meta.

And that's where I'll leave it. I believe you agree with me on both points, so no need to keep talking about my prior statement about RNG.

Thanks.
TVF's guild is recruiting. Say hi in our Discord! https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
• 471 posts Member
Asifab wrote: »
Nihion wrote: »
Random rolls create patterns of their random. I already explained that without the random roll, the game wouldn’t make any sense.

There is not a 50% of getting a shard on character nodes. The chance of not getting one is much higher. You could say the same thing about that: it’s not RNG because a shard does not show up 50% if the time; which is not true, and I think we can all agree on that. So by saying that GG not showing up on the node 20% of the time (because there are 4 other characters) is not RNG, you are also wrong.

If I flip a coin, the pattern is that both sides will ultimately show up the same amount. If one side of the coin was weighted (literally), then the other side would show up more, and that’s the pattern. RNG creates patterns, if it’s weighted the pattern changes.

GG is coded to be randomly rolled less, and so that’s what a pattern will show. CG has always been doing this.

Randomness can NOT have a pattern too it.....I don't think you are understanding that. A single hard node farm can't even be brought into this. For it to be random every possible outcome needs to have the same chance at the beginning of the roll to land on as all the others do. If GG is weighted differently then it can no longer be considered random.

If you are having issues understanding this you could try finding a mathematician to talk to, they could explain it better then I could I'm sure. However if a pattern emerges that shows that GG does not have the same opportunity to show up as all the others then it can't be considered random.

Im not a statistician but everything math follows a pattern, its literally how math works. Yes random can have patterns, but they're generally vague.

Aslong as there is some measure of unpredictability its random.

I put sallys name in a hat, i put billys name in three times, then jeffs name ten times. Odds are you pick jeff, but you could pick billy or sally. Its random, even if you can make an educated guess. What name you pick is random.

Unfortunaly for you, the pinpoint deffinition of random your using defeats your argument. You say anything with a pattern isnt random, then try proving it with mathematics. Everything mathematical follows a pattern.

Tl;dr Even what you concider random isnt random by what you concider random to be
• 2428 posts Member
edited August 2019
Asifab wrote: »
Nihion wrote: »
Random rolls create patterns of their random. I already explained that without the random roll, the game wouldn’t make any sense.

There is not a 50% of getting a shard on character nodes. The chance of not getting one is much higher. You could say the same thing about that: it’s not RNG because a shard does not show up 50% if the time; which is not true, and I think we can all agree on that. So by saying that GG not showing up on the node 20% of the time (because there are 4 other characters) is not RNG, you are also wrong.

If I flip a coin, the pattern is that both sides will ultimately show up the same amount. If one side of the coin was weighted (literally), then the other side would show up more, and that’s the pattern. RNG creates patterns, if it’s weighted the pattern changes.

GG is coded to be randomly rolled less, and so that’s what a pattern will show. CG has always been doing this.

Randomness can NOT have a pattern too it.....I don't think you are understanding that. A single hard node farm can't even be brought into this. For it to be random every possible outcome needs to have the same chance at the beginning of the roll to land on as all the others do. If GG is weighted differently then it can no longer be considered random.

If you are having issues understanding this you could try finding a mathematician to talk to, they could explain it better then I could I'm sure. However if a pattern emerges that shows that GG does not have the same opportunity to show up as all the others then it can't be considered random.

RNG has a pattern. What makes it random is that it’s unpredictable. GG will show up less; but when he shows up is random.

I should also add that because there is no set schedule, he could show up more for a certain time and less for a certain time. That’s why TVF says it’s RNG.
• 775 posts Member
TVF wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
CCyrilS wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
CCyrilS wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
CCyrilS wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion2 wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
CCyrilS wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
CCyrilS wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Liath wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
TVF wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
However you made it sound as if RNG is the only thing affecting GGs show up rate and in that is where you and I disagree.

I never said that though, and I don't believe it, so we can't disagree on it.

But you only mentioned the rng part, so any respectful disagreer would infer you didn’t believe GG was weighted lower.

That would not be a reasonable inference since RNG does not mean and has never meant that all options are weighted equally.

I respectfully disagree. His simple statement of “Its RNG” implies that GG showing is as random as any of the others showing.

I don't think that's how most ppl understand it. I wouldn't assume anything one way or the other.

Let’s say there are 5 chars that show in that spot.

GG has been coded to show 10% of the time and the other 4 are coded to show 22.5% of the time.

That’s not random, that’s not rng

Yes it is... you don’t know how loot boxes work, do you?

Loot boxes are coded in several different ways.

5 chars with each having a 20% chance of showing is as random as a seeded rng can be.

5 chars with one having a significantly less % chance of showing is not random.

Yes it is.

Let’s go back to percentages in math. Dice are always random. If you roll a die, every side has the same chance of being rolled correct? So let’s say we still have six sides, but the number one occupies one side, the number two occupies two sides, and the number three occupies three sides. The die has a bigger chance of landing on three, but it still has to roll, making the end result: random. Just because it’s weighted doesn’t change the fact that it’s random. It’s not a set figure; which means you could roll the one a hundred times in a row.

Ok, putting aside true randomness of a seeded computer generated number vs dice or cards, to me random means an equal chance of happening in the context of this discussion.

If I were to tell someone it’s random that GG shows up in a slot with 4 other chars, that person could reasonably assume that GG had a 20% chance of showing up.

If in fact GG only had a 10% chance of showing up in that scenario, then telling that person It’s random when GG shows up, I wouldn’t be telling the whole truth.

Doesn’t matter, TVF conceded that most likely GG is weighted to show up less often than the other chars in that spot.

1.
made, done, happening, or chosen without method or conscious decision.

Googles definition of random. The outcomes aren’t required to be of equal standing.

I’ll make this easy. It’s still RNG because “weighted” is a form of RNG.

I’ll make it even easier.

You take GG and I’ll take Tarkin.

I’ll track with screenshots 3x a day for the next year in ship shop that spot.

Every time GG shows I’ll pay you \$1 and every time Tarkin shows, you pay me \$1.

If it’s random, we’ll probably break close to even, but if it’s not random and I have found a pattern in my favor, then you’ll be paying me at the end of a year.

No!
Not true at all, because they may be weighted differently, even though they are RANDOM.

Fine by me if you want to call it random.

I happen to believe there is an identifiable pattern that I’m willing to put my money behind.

Same bet as I offered nihion, please take it.

We all agree that GG shows up less. No one will take that bet. We’ve established that.

RNG can be weighted, but it is still RNG, REGARDLESS. “Random” means “roll of the dice”, or “spin the wheel”, you name it. It can be weighted, but it doesn’t change the fact that it’s random.

No one in this thread agreed that GG shows up less, until I said something. TVF said it after his initial post of “it’s rng”. First time you have said that, fact.

I would never bet on randomness, but I will definitely bet when I observe a pattern.

GG doesn’t show up in that spot randomly, he shows up less frequently than the other chars, which is an identifiable pattern that I’m willing to put my money on.

This thread was about GG not showing up in fleet shop and several people said, bad luck man, rng bro and I said, nope it’s not bad luck or rng, he’s weighted not to show up as often.

It’s not rng or confirmation bias that leads people to believe GG isnt showing as much, it’s simple weighting.

Getting 10% drop rate on a node that enough data shows is really 20% can be rng or confirmation bias, but this time, this particular instance, I believe and am willing to bet that the show rate for GG is different than the other chars in that slot, making it predictable enough and not random to make a wager on.

And we agreed with you! But you stopped caring about what other people said I guess.

Do you think that character farms are not RNG dependent? Because they're also weighted. It's not a 50% chance to get a shard, but that's RNG! It takes the drop rates into account and randomly decides what you get. Same with GG. He has a lower drop rate, so it will be more unlikely that he shows up because the random roll won't land on him as much. If it wasn't random, then he would have a set schedule. Weighted RNG is a type of RNG. I don't think theyre is anything in this game that is just weighted, because that's not a thing. That would be like he only shows up on Tuesdays or something.

Like I said earlier, there was a period in time where I thought I didn't see GG for a while. And that's because it's RNG. And CG had every right to make it weighted.

Wait, so how many nihions are there? Seems this debate is weighted toward nihions.

There are lots of areas in the game where “it’s rng bro” is correct and appropriate. This particular conversation is not one of them. GG not showing up for weeks is not bad luck or RNG, its because he’s coded not to show up very often so the swings are even bigger.

People throw the term rng around loosely on these forums.

If you and I grind the same amount of mods and I roll better speed on mine, thats rng. If you and I both grind the same amount of cantina energy on brood alpha for a month and I’m ahead in shard count, thats rng. GG being a freaking ghost in fleet shop vs the other chars in that slot is not bad luck or “RNG”, it’s because it’s coded for him to show less.

Yes! It's coded AND rng. The weight doesn't make it not random!

The weight is what makes it not random.

WRONG

I don't need to. It's the fact of the definition of random. Whether or not you believe it is irrelevant to reality. Understand it or don't, it's still how it is.

Not in this instance.

I understand it perfectly.

Context and staying on topic of this thread is key.

9 times out of 10, when someone on this forum says, “its rng” they mean it’s bad luck. Rarely is the term here used for good luck, so a pattern on this forum has been established when using the term, “it’s rng”.

TVF is more often than not a CG/EA/SWGOH protagonist/sympathizer, so assuming when he says its rng that someone doesn't see GG, he means its bad luck or completely random that the person didn’t see GG for a long time, when in reality its the fact that GG is coded to show far less than anyone else in that slot.

At the very least it was disingenuous for TVF to state, “its rng” especially if he knows GG shows less than anyone else.

I’m not debating the complexity of rng, I’m debating how TVF used it in this thread and how it’s used in many threads on this forum.

@ZAP I just read this and I disagree with your characterization of my statement and my intent. But regardless, it's time to move past what I said and how you interpreted it.

1) GG has a lower chance of showing up because the odds are weighted
2) Those odds have not changed because of any upcoming events or current meta.

And that's where I'll leave it. I believe you agree with me on both points, so no need to keep talking about my prior statement about RNG.

Thanks.

Agreed on 1 and 2

• 36 posts Member
edited August 2019
Asifab wrote: »
For it to be random every possible outcome needs to have the same chance at the beginning of the roll to land on as all the others do. If GG is weighted differently then it can no longer be considered random.

This is categorically untrue.

TLDR: Weighted appearance of one (or more) items is not a "pattern," it is not pre-determinable. It's just statistics at work, and can still be random as long as an RNG device is being used to determine the appearance of an item.

Let's consider a few scenarios. To simplify things, we're going to use only two items, A and B. Item A has a 10% chance to show up. Item B has a 90% chance to show up. So, clearly, the probability of each item showing up is weighted towards item B quite heavily.

In our first scenario, items are consistently distributed according to frequency over a 10-item sample. So you might see something like this:

A B B B B B B B B B
or
B B B A B B B B B B

The pattern is pre-determined, with A only ever appearing once in 10 samples. What slot of the 10 it appears in might be consistent (e.g. always slot 1 or always slot 5 etc.), or might be varied based on some pre-determined rule (e.g. in the first 10 samples, it shows up in slot 1, in the next 10 in slot 2 etc.)

The pattern is pre-determined and will not vary. This scenario is not random. There is no RNG involved. RNG, by the way, stands for Random Number Generator, not some acronym synonymous with luck. RNG is literally the device with which you create a series of (pseudo-)random numbers. A die is an RNG. So are code algorithms built to generate a series of essentially random numbers.

Now, let's look at scenario #2.

In this scenario, the frequency of each item is still weighted as above. However, instead of a pre-determined pattern of which slot item A appears in, we're going to use an RNG device to determine which slot item A appears in for each 10 item sample. To generate the A slot for each sample, I used random.orgs random integer generator. This is what is gave back to me for 5 numbers:

4 6 2 2 10

So, you'd see this for the 10-sample sets.

B B B A B B B B B B
B B B B B A B B B B
B A B B B B B B B B
B A B B B B B B B B
B B B B B B B B B A

The frequency of item A is pre-determined and will always show up 1 in 10 samples. The specific slot in which item A shows up is randomly determined, with each slot weighted evenly. As a result, whether you see item A or item B in any given slot appears random to an observer, though if you know where the sample boundaries are you can determine whether item A has a 0% a 10% or a 100% chance of appearing in the next slot.

And finally, scenario #3.

In this scenario, we are not going to constrain the samples to always have 1 item A in every 10 samples. Instead, we are going to use the same random integer generator to create our sequence. Item A still has a 10% chance of showing up, represented by the number 1. Item B has a 90% chance to show up, represented by numbers 2-10. Here is what I got back from a 50-number sequence of random numbers from 1 to 10:

1 10 1 4 3 2 3 1 1 8
8 7 10 1 2 3 4 8 2 10
10 2 3 3 5 6 3 4 5 1
10 4 9 1 2 6 7 5 5 1
10 1 10 4 2 3 6 10 2 3

Replacing 1 with A and the rest with B:

A B A B B B B A A B (4 occurrences in slots 1, 3 ,8, 9)
B B B A B B B B B B (1 occurrence in slot 4)
B B B B B B B B B A (1 occurrence in slot 10)
B B B A B B B B B A (2 occurrences in slots 4 and 10)
B A B B B B B B B B (1 occurrence in slot 2)

As you can see, despite our 10% chance to see item A, we actually got 9 occurrences, or 18%.

How often and what slot you see item A in is completely random, despite the weighted average. Over a large sample size, the frequency will average out to match the 10% we'd expect. But for smaller samples, you will see variations. This is not a sign of it not being random, in fact it's quite the opposite. Truly randomized samples allow for local variations from the expected frequency, and only over enough samples can you determine the probability with solid accuracy. Sure, item B is 9 times more likely to appear than item A. But whether we see item A or item B in any given slot is random, and you have no way to determine whether any given sample will be an A or a B. One (or more) items appearing more often than others is not a "pattern," it is not pre-determinable. It's just statistics at work.

Edited for typos.
• 2428 posts Member
Thank you.
• 4166 posts Member
Can't wait to see the argument against
• 775 posts Member
CCyrilS wrote: »
Can't wait to see the argument against

You won’t see an argument from me regarding that explanation of rng a couple posts up if that’s what you mean.

There were 2 posts that said GG wasn’t showing up often because of either the padme event or because he’s a DR/malak counter.

TVF disagreed with both of those claims and then simply said “it’s RNG”. I then incorrectly interpreted his use of the term RNG to mean that GG showed up randomly in that slot like the other chars. There were a couple of posts that preceded TVFs that stated exactly that.

TVF then clarified that is not what he meant.

My interpretation of his post was wrong, but given the fact that many people on this forum use the term RNG synonymously with “luck” and TVFs usual defense of CG/EA, my interpretation was not a stretch at all.

• 4166 posts Member
ZAP wrote: »
CCyrilS wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion2 wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
CCyrilS wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
CCyrilS wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Liath wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
TVF wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
However you made it sound as if RNG is the only thing affecting GGs show up rate and in that is where you and I disagree.

I never said that though, and I don't believe it, so we can't disagree on it.

But you only mentioned the rng part, so any respectful disagreer would infer you didn’t believe GG was weighted lower.

That would not be a reasonable inference since RNG does not mean and has never meant that all options are weighted equally.

I respectfully disagree. His simple statement of “Its RNG” implies that GG showing is as random as any of the others showing.

I don't think that's how most ppl understand it. I wouldn't assume anything one way or the other.

Let’s say there are 5 chars that show in that spot.

GG has been coded to show 10% of the time and the other 4 are coded to show 22.5% of the time.

That’s not random, that’s not rng

Yes it is... you don’t know how loot boxes work, do you?

Loot boxes are coded in several different ways.

5 chars with each having a 20% chance of showing is as random as a seeded rng can be.

5 chars with one having a significantly less % chance of showing is not random.

Yes it is.

Let’s go back to percentages in math. Dice are always random. If you roll a die, every side has the same chance of being rolled correct? So let’s say we still have six sides, but the number one occupies one side, the number two occupies two sides, and the number three occupies three sides. The die has a bigger chance of landing on three, but it still has to roll, making the end result: random. Just because it’s weighted doesn’t change the fact that it’s random. It’s not a set figure; which means you could roll the one a hundred times in a row.

Ok, putting aside true randomness of a seeded computer generated number vs dice or cards, to me random means an equal chance of happening in the context of this discussion.

If I were to tell someone it’s random that GG shows up in a slot with 4 other chars, that person could reasonably assume that GG had a 20% chance of showing up.

If in fact GG only had a 10% chance of showing up in that scenario, then telling that person It’s random when GG shows up, I wouldn’t be telling the whole truth.

Doesn’t matter, TVF conceded that most likely GG is weighted to show up less often than the other chars in that spot.

1.
made, done, happening, or chosen without method or conscious decision.

Googles definition of random. The outcomes aren’t required to be of equal standing.

I’ll make this easy. It’s still RNG because “weighted” is a form of RNG.

I’ll make it even easier.

You take GG and I’ll take Tarkin.

I’ll track with screenshots 3x a day for the next year in ship shop that spot.

Every time GG shows I’ll pay you \$1 and every time Tarkin shows, you pay me \$1.

If it’s random, we’ll probably break close to even, but if it’s not random and I have found a pattern in my favor, then you’ll be paying me at the end of a year.

No!
Not true at all, because they may be weighted differently, even though they are RANDOM.

Fine by me if you want to call it random.

I happen to believe there is an identifiable pattern that I’m willing to put my money behind.

Same bet as I offered nihion, please take it.

We all agree that GG shows up less. No one will take that bet. We’ve established that.

RNG can be weighted, but it is still RNG, REGARDLESS. “Random” means “roll of the dice”, or “spin the wheel”, you name it. It can be weighted, but it doesn’t change the fact that it’s random.

No one in this thread agreed that GG shows up less, until I said something. TVF said it after his initial post of “it’s rng”. First time you have said that, fact.

I would never bet on randomness, but I will definitely bet when I observe a pattern.

GG doesn’t show up in that spot randomly, he shows up less frequently than the other chars, which is an identifiable pattern that I’m willing to put my money on.

This thread was about GG not showing up in fleet shop and several people said, bad luck man, rng bro and I said, nope it’s not bad luck or rng, he’s weighted not to show up as often.

It’s not rng or confirmation bias that leads people to believe GG isnt showing as much, it’s simple weighting.

Getting 10% drop rate on a node that enough data shows is really 20% can be rng or confirmation bias, but this time, this particular instance, I believe and am willing to bet that the show rate for GG is different than the other chars in that slot, making it predictable enough and not random to make a wager on.

And we agreed with you! But you stopped caring about what other people said I guess.

Do you think that character farms are not RNG dependent? Because they're also weighted. It's not a 50% chance to get a shard, but that's RNG! It takes the drop rates into account and randomly decides what you get. Same with GG. He has a lower drop rate, so it will be more unlikely that he shows up because the random roll won't land on him as much. If it wasn't random, then he would have a set schedule. Weighted RNG is a type of RNG. I don't think theyre is anything in this game that is just weighted, because that's not a thing. That would be like he only shows up on Tuesdays or something.

Like I said earlier, there was a period in time where I thought I didn't see GG for a while. And that's because it's RNG. And CG had every right to make it weighted.

Wait, so how many nihions are there? Seems this debate is weighted toward nihions.

There are lots of areas in the game where “it’s rng bro” is correct and appropriate. This particular conversation is not one of them. GG not showing up for weeks is not bad luck or RNG, its because he’s coded not to show up very often so the swings are even bigger.

People throw the term rng around loosely on these forums.

If you and I grind the same amount of mods and I roll better speed on mine, thats rng. If you and I both grind the same amount of cantina energy on brood alpha for a month and I’m ahead in shard count, thats rng. GG being a freaking ghost in fleet shop vs the other chars in that slot is not bad luck or “RNG”, it’s because it’s coded for him to show less.

Yes! It's coded AND rng. The weight doesn't make it not random!

The weight is what makes it not random.

• 775 posts Member
CCyrilS wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
CCyrilS wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion2 wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
CCyrilS wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
CCyrilS wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Liath wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
TVF wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
However you made it sound as if RNG is the only thing affecting GGs show up rate and in that is where you and I disagree.

I never said that though, and I don't believe it, so we can't disagree on it.

But you only mentioned the rng part, so any respectful disagreer would infer you didn’t believe GG was weighted lower.

That would not be a reasonable inference since RNG does not mean and has never meant that all options are weighted equally.

I respectfully disagree. His simple statement of “Its RNG” implies that GG showing is as random as any of the others showing.

I don't think that's how most ppl understand it. I wouldn't assume anything one way or the other.

Let’s say there are 5 chars that show in that spot.

GG has been coded to show 10% of the time and the other 4 are coded to show 22.5% of the time.

That’s not random, that’s not rng

Yes it is... you don’t know how loot boxes work, do you?

Loot boxes are coded in several different ways.

5 chars with each having a 20% chance of showing is as random as a seeded rng can be.

5 chars with one having a significantly less % chance of showing is not random.

Yes it is.

Let’s go back to percentages in math. Dice are always random. If you roll a die, every side has the same chance of being rolled correct? So let’s say we still have six sides, but the number one occupies one side, the number two occupies two sides, and the number three occupies three sides. The die has a bigger chance of landing on three, but it still has to roll, making the end result: random. Just because it’s weighted doesn’t change the fact that it’s random. It’s not a set figure; which means you could roll the one a hundred times in a row.

Ok, putting aside true randomness of a seeded computer generated number vs dice or cards, to me random means an equal chance of happening in the context of this discussion.

If I were to tell someone it’s random that GG shows up in a slot with 4 other chars, that person could reasonably assume that GG had a 20% chance of showing up.

If in fact GG only had a 10% chance of showing up in that scenario, then telling that person It’s random when GG shows up, I wouldn’t be telling the whole truth.

Doesn’t matter, TVF conceded that most likely GG is weighted to show up less often than the other chars in that spot.

1.
made, done, happening, or chosen without method or conscious decision.

Googles definition of random. The outcomes aren’t required to be of equal standing.

I’ll make this easy. It’s still RNG because “weighted” is a form of RNG.

I’ll make it even easier.

You take GG and I’ll take Tarkin.

I’ll track with screenshots 3x a day for the next year in ship shop that spot.

Every time GG shows I’ll pay you \$1 and every time Tarkin shows, you pay me \$1.

If it’s random, we’ll probably break close to even, but if it’s not random and I have found a pattern in my favor, then you’ll be paying me at the end of a year.

No!
Not true at all, because they may be weighted differently, even though they are RANDOM.

Fine by me if you want to call it random.

I happen to believe there is an identifiable pattern that I’m willing to put my money behind.

Same bet as I offered nihion, please take it.

We all agree that GG shows up less. No one will take that bet. We’ve established that.

RNG can be weighted, but it is still RNG, REGARDLESS. “Random” means “roll of the dice”, or “spin the wheel”, you name it. It can be weighted, but it doesn’t change the fact that it’s random.

No one in this thread agreed that GG shows up less, until I said something. TVF said it after his initial post of “it’s rng”. First time you have said that, fact.

I would never bet on randomness, but I will definitely bet when I observe a pattern.

GG doesn’t show up in that spot randomly, he shows up less frequently than the other chars, which is an identifiable pattern that I’m willing to put my money on.

This thread was about GG not showing up in fleet shop and several people said, bad luck man, rng bro and I said, nope it’s not bad luck or rng, he’s weighted not to show up as often.

It’s not rng or confirmation bias that leads people to believe GG isnt showing as much, it’s simple weighting.

Getting 10% drop rate on a node that enough data shows is really 20% can be rng or confirmation bias, but this time, this particular instance, I believe and am willing to bet that the show rate for GG is different than the other chars in that slot, making it predictable enough and not random to make a wager on.

And we agreed with you! But you stopped caring about what other people said I guess.

Do you think that character farms are not RNG dependent? Because they're also weighted. It's not a 50% chance to get a shard, but that's RNG! It takes the drop rates into account and randomly decides what you get. Same with GG. He has a lower drop rate, so it will be more unlikely that he shows up because the random roll won't land on him as much. If it wasn't random, then he would have a set schedule. Weighted RNG is a type of RNG. I don't think theyre is anything in this game that is just weighted, because that's not a thing. That would be like he only shows up on Tuesdays or something.

Like I said earlier, there was a period in time where I thought I didn't see GG for a while. And that's because it's RNG. And CG had every right to make it weighted.

Wait, so how many nihions are there? Seems this debate is weighted toward nihions.

There are lots of areas in the game where “it’s rng bro” is correct and appropriate. This particular conversation is not one of them. GG not showing up for weeks is not bad luck or RNG, its because he’s coded not to show up very often so the swings are even bigger.

People throw the term rng around loosely on these forums.

If you and I grind the same amount of mods and I roll better speed on mine, thats rng. If you and I both grind the same amount of cantina energy on brood alpha for a month and I’m ahead in shard count, thats rng. GG being a freaking ghost in fleet shop vs the other chars in that slot is not bad luck or “RNG”, it’s because it’s coded for him to show less.

Yes! It's coded AND rng. The weight doesn't make it not random!

The weight is what makes it not random.

Yeah I should have said, “The weighting is what makes it not equally random with the other chars”

• 4166 posts Member
ZAP wrote: »
CCyrilS wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
CCyrilS wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion2 wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
CCyrilS wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Nihion wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
CCyrilS wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
Liath wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
TVF wrote: »
ZAP wrote: »
However you made it sound as if RNG is the only thing affecting GGs show up rate and in that is where you and I disagree.

I never said that though, and I don't believe it, so we can't disagree on it.

But you only mentioned the rng part, so any respectful disagreer would infer you didn’t believe GG was weighted lower.

That would not be a reasonable inference since RNG does not mean and has never meant that all options are weighted equally.

I respectfully disagree. His simple statement of “Its RNG” implies that GG showing is as random as any of the others showing.

I don't think that's how most ppl understand it. I wouldn't assume anything one way or the other.

Let’s say there are 5 chars that show in that spot.

GG has been coded to show 10% of the time and the other 4 are coded to show 22.5% of the time.

That’s not random, that’s not rng

Yes it is... you don’t know how loot boxes work, do you?

Loot boxes are coded in several different ways.

5 chars with each having a 20% chance of showing is as random as a seeded rng can be.

5 chars with one having a significantly less % chance of showing is not random.

Yes it is.

Let’s go back to percentages in math. Dice are always random. If you roll a die, every side has the same chance of being rolled correct? So let’s say we still have six sides, but the number one occupies one side, the number two occupies two sides, and the number three occupies three sides. The die has a bigger chance of landing on three, but it still has to roll, making the end result: random. Just because it’s weighted doesn’t change the fact that it’s random. It’s not a set figure; which means you could roll the one a hundred times in a row.

Ok, putting aside true randomness of a seeded computer generated number vs dice or cards, to me random means an equal chance of happening in the context of this discussion.

If I were to tell someone it’s random that GG shows up in a slot with 4 other chars, that person could reasonably assume that GG had a 20% chance of showing up.

If in fact GG only had a 10% chance of showing up in that scenario, then telling that person It’s random when GG shows up, I wouldn’t be telling the whole truth.

Doesn’t matter, TVF conceded that most likely GG is weighted to show up less often than the other chars in that spot.

1.
made, done, happening, or chosen without method or conscious decision.

Googles definition of random. The outcomes aren’t required to be of equal standing.

I’ll make this easy. It’s still RNG because “weighted” is a form of RNG.

I’ll make it even easier.

You take GG and I’ll take Tarkin.

I’ll track with screenshots 3x a day for the next year in ship shop that spot.

Every time GG shows I’ll pay you \$1 and every time Tarkin shows, you pay me \$1.

If it’s random, we’ll probably break close to even, but if it’s not random and I have found a pattern in my favor, then you’ll be paying me at the end of a year.

No!
Not true at all, because they may be weighted differently, even though they are RANDOM.

Fine by me if you want to call it random.

I happen to believe there is an identifiable pattern that I’m willing to put my money behind.

Same bet as I offered nihion, please take it.

We all agree that GG shows up less. No one will take that bet. We’ve established that.

RNG can be weighted, but it is still RNG, REGARDLESS. “Random” means “roll of the dice”, or “spin the wheel”, you name it. It can be weighted, but it doesn’t change the fact that it’s random.

No one in this thread agreed that GG shows up less, until I said something. TVF said it after his initial post of “it’s rng”. First time you have said that, fact.

I would never bet on randomness, but I will definitely bet when I observe a pattern.

GG doesn’t show up in that spot randomly, he shows up less frequently than the other chars, which is an identifiable pattern that I’m willing to put my money on.

This thread was about GG not showing up in fleet shop and several people said, bad luck man, rng bro and I said, nope it’s not bad luck or rng, he’s weighted not to show up as often.

It’s not rng or confirmation bias that leads people to believe GG isnt showing as much, it’s simple weighting.

Getting 10% drop rate on a node that enough data shows is really 20% can be rng or confirmation bias, but this time, this particular instance, I believe and am willing to bet that the show rate for GG is different than the other chars in that slot, making it predictable enough and not random to make a wager on.

And we agreed with you! But you stopped caring about what other people said I guess.

Do you think that character farms are not RNG dependent? Because they're also weighted. It's not a 50% chance to get a shard, but that's RNG! It takes the drop rates into account and randomly decides what you get. Same with GG. He has a lower drop rate, so it will be more unlikely that he shows up because the random roll won't land on him as much. If it wasn't random, then he would have a set schedule. Weighted RNG is a type of RNG. I don't think theyre is anything in this game that is just weighted, because that's not a thing. That would be like he only shows up on Tuesdays or something.

Like I said earlier, there was a period in time where I thought I didn't see GG for a while. And that's because it's RNG. And CG had every right to make it weighted.

Wait, so how many nihions are there? Seems this debate is weighted toward nihions.

There are lots of areas in the game where “it’s rng bro” is correct and appropriate. This particular conversation is not one of them. GG not showing up for weeks is not bad luck or RNG, its because he’s coded not to show up very often so the swings are even bigger.

People throw the term rng around loosely on these forums.

If you and I grind the same amount of mods and I roll better speed on mine, thats rng. If you and I both grind the same amount of cantina energy on brood alpha for a month and I’m ahead in shard count, thats rng. GG being a freaking ghost in fleet shop vs the other chars in that slot is not bad luck or “RNG”, it’s because it’s coded for him to show less.

Yes! It's coded AND rng. The weight doesn't make it not random!

The weight is what makes it not random.

Yeah I should have said, “The weighting is what makes it not equally random with the other chars”

Now you are correct
• 5775 posts Member
• 471 posts Member

Right its like watching two monkeys plug an outlet into another outlet
• 775 posts Member
edited August 2019

Right its like watching two monkeys plug an outlet into another outlet

I wasn’t disputing what RNG actually is, I was disputing how it’s frequently used on this forum as synonymous with equal chance of luck and almost always in reference to “bad” luck.

Most of the time when someone says “it’s RNG”, its referring to someone complaining about bad pulls on mods, char shards, or even battles themselves. “It’s RNG” on these forums usually means, “bad luck dude”.

There are several instances of this on the front page of recent discussions right now.

• 375 posts Member
ZAP wrote: »
He only has a 1/8 chance of spawning & only 3 spawns a day.

So even if your RNG is being perfectly "average" then you would only see him once every 3 days.

More likely you get him 2-3x in a 2 day period & then he's gone for 10+ days.

I would be willing to bet 5 full stun guns that GG does not have the same chance of showing in that slot as the other chars in that slot.

I’d like to see the actual weighting of chars in that slot, but most definitely GG is weighted to show up less often than the others.

I did not say he has the same chance as other characters.

I said he has a 1/8 chance.

There are only 5 characters.

PS. Since he only has the same chance as Vader, I'll only expect 1 Full Stun Gun in my mailbox
• 375 posts Member
ZAP wrote: »
CCyrilS wrote: »

I don't think that's how most ppl understand it. I wouldn't assume anything one way or the other.

Let’s say there are 5 chars that show in that spot.

GG has been coded to show 10% of the time and the other 4 are coded to show 22.5% of the time.

That’s not random, that’s not rng

Where are you getting those figures?

Are you making up this hypothetical?

They don't match the website I linked above with 2 months of tracking.

Or my own observations for that matter that tell me Vader is no way as common as the 3 fleet commanders.

I feel like what I've seen mirrors that reddit post.

Its only 2 months of tracking but I have not found any major issues other than I wonder about the final character slot as I don't seem to see FOTP nearly as often as that thread shows.