Why is Ezra drop so bad? lol

jawa7778

I know this seems like a typical complaint, that, "Oh my gosh the guy I'm farming has horrible drop rates!" BUT!!! I conducted a very sciency scientific study. Be amazed! I ran a multi sim of 12 battle on KRU(who I am also farming). I received 5 KRU shards and 4 TIE Silencer shards. Then I multi sim Ezra's node 12 times. I got 1 shard. I then ran 3 multi sim on FOE. I got 2 shards. Back when I was farming Hera, I'd get like 6 shards when I simmed 13 battles. Why is Ezra's so bad?

Rath_Tarr

Your sample sizes are far too small to draw such conclusions.

Darth_DeVito

It's just your RNG of the day. I'm farming Bastila Fallen at the moment, among other characters. One day I got zero shards despite buying two refreshes (15 attempts in total), followed by 7 shards for 10 attempts the next day. The drop rate works out to approx. 33% in the long run.

Nodes like KRU's drop more because both the character and the ship shards have a 33% chance to drop, so you'll often get both. It's a great way to earn shard shop currency once you've 7-starred them.

jawa7778

Rath_Tarr wrote: »

Your sample sizes are far too small to draw such conclusions.

Not sure what you mean, this has been a consistent problem since I started farming.

jawa7778

Darth_DeVito wrote: »

It's just your RNG of the day. I'm farming Bastila Fallen at the moment, among other characters. One day I got zero shards despite buying two refreshes (15 attempts in total), followed by 7 shards for 10 attempts the next day. The drop rate works out to approx. 33% in the long run.

Nodes like KRU's drop more because both the character and the ship shards have a 33% chance to drop, so you'll often get both. It's a great way to earn shard shop currency once you've 7-starred them.

I understand what you mean, however, it's been consistently bad for the past week or so. I haven't been documenting it or anything, but I haven't been lying when I say it's been horrible drop rates.

DaPowerfulJedi

The drop rate is 33%. Some days the rate will be less than that, some days it will be more. It’s not uncommon to get a poor drop rate on a character for a week straight. Eventually it evens out.

Nihion

After about 50 days of documentation, you may be breaking into the evidence territory.

DadKev

Sheesh another complaint about math and probabilities. The shard drop rate is 33%. Over time it all averages out. You will always have good days and bad. That's how probabilities work people!

Keeping track is like keeping track of flipping a coin. It's still 50% chance to get heads. Doing it a million times or 20 doesn't prove anything. Statiscally it's still 50%. Period.

DadKev

Your chances of going 0 for 5 is about 13%. But your chances of going 5 for 5 is about 0.3%.

DrowningFerret

Well sometimes playing based on gambers superstition works out, try swapping back to Hera for a few days.

Fauztin

@JDIII , other way around. The weight factor in a coin flip is in favor of tails facing up - the side with heads has more physical material, adding weight to be pulled down by gravity. A minuscule amount, so only for the seasoned professional gambler that likes to... “live dangerously...” 👌

CCyrilS

Fauztin wrote: »

@JDIII , other way around. The weight factor in a coin flip is in favor of tails facing up - the side with heads has more physical material, adding weight to be pulled down by gravity. A minuscule amount, so only for the seasoned professional gambler that likes to... “live dangerously...” 👌

It's even more biased toward which side was up before it was flipped.

Tsuo_Vook

Professor of statistics here. Yeah, 12 trials is way too small a sample size. You're only about 95% sure you've gotten w/in +/- .15 of the real probability.

You're dealing with a basic Binomial distribution here (with known true probability 0.33, but I get that the probability is what you're worried might not be true). Do more like 100 trials and you'll get a better sense of what the real probability looks like. (You should be seeing something between about 24 and 43 drops.)

If you want a handy Binomial calculator, check this out:
https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

Ron_ONeal35

12 tries. A very scientific study. Ha!