TLDR: shard drop rates are ~33%, gear is 20-30%. Rates are unaffected by special events. Only 81 Shaak Ti shards to go!
The SWGOH 4th Anniversary Double-Drop event has just concluded, which boosted my Shaak Ti farming quite a bit due to spending some crystals and refreshing the node a few times. This was enough to get me past the 6* threshold, so it's time to update the results
An oft-heard complaint during double drops is "2x0=0" or that drop rates are systematically halved during these events. if you refresh the node a few times, you are not likely to get ZERO shards . Unfortunately it IS possible to still completely draw a blank, but it's not likely. Drop rates during the 2x period were:
So I got hella good Shaak Ti rates. Xanadu was a little low but not outside the realm of experience if you look at how the 5-pt moving average has fluctuated during the recording period.
In the following charts, drops during the 2X event are highlighted with green bars. As a reminder, the yellow and orange bars highlight the drops I got leading up to and during the General Skywalker event.
Shaak Ti: 33.9%
171 drops / 505 attempts = 33.9%
Blue gear ~20%
Purple gear ~20%
Ship ability mats Mk1-3: 4%
Reinforcement mats ~15%
Ship Omegas ~5%
Devs must have cranked up the drop rates during 2X because they fell at nearly a 50% rate for me: 45 attempts, 22 drops, 44 shards. Thanks CG!
Thought it might be interesting to show how often I get 0/5, 1/5, 2/5, etc. so I binned them up in the following chart:
Droideka: 33.1%
Blue gear dropping at 33%, purple gear dropping at 25%. Went 0/5 twice on Droideka but still managed a full 33.3% drop rate during 2X (30 attempts, 10 drops, 20 shards).
Xanadu Blood: 34.9%
Xanadu was running high around 38% for a long time, I was wondering if that was going to hold up. Sadly RNG is catching up with me, went 0/5 twice during 2X to net a measly 20% (30 attempts, 6 drops, 12 shards).
B1 Battle Droid: 34.0%
I didn't push very hard here during 2X, was concentrating on Shaak Ti. Got 40% during 2X (20 attempts, 8 drops, 16 shards). Blue gear dropping around 25% I guess, gold gear at 16%. Ship ability mats look like 4%, with 15% on reinforcement mats and 5% on ship omegas.
Will update the OP with some of this as well. RNG can be rough, just keep plugging away.
Amazing work. Please disregard all the mouth breathers who claim CG lowers drop rates and who act like there is no data that supports consistent drop rates. Always. Great work.
In game name: Lucas Gregory FORMER PLAYER - - - -"Whale blah grump poooop." - Ouchie
In game guild: TNR Uprising I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
*This space left intentionally blank*
The obvious take away here is that CG's algorythms determined the OP really needs the Xanadu Blood ship in order to maximize his play style, hence the lowered drop rate on said ship.
The obvious take away here is that CG's algorythms determined the OP really needs the Xanadu Blood ship in order to maximize his play style, hence the lowered drop rate on said ship.
They know I want to run Xanadu with Malevolence! Tricky tricky devs.
Nice work on all that. It still fascinates me every time I see someone screaming about drop rates changing when, first off, developers don't even have the time to get the actual game working correctly, none the less creating an elaborate scheme to twist drop rates at their whim. And secondly, we live in a era where five minutes after a game drops data miners have discovered every detail of the game, and yet none of these people can find proof of said debauchery.
But go on simming in twos on odd hours and threes on Tuesdays and thinking you gamed the system
Nice work on all that. It still fascinates me every time I see someone screaming about drop rates changing when, first off, developers don't even have the time to get the actual game working correctly, none the less creating an elaborate scheme to twist drop rates at their whim. And secondly, we live in a era where five minutes after a game drops data miners have discovered every detail of the game, and yet none of these people can find proof of said debauchery.
But go on simming in twos on odd hours and threes on Tuesdays and thinking you gamed the system
You can't find out about server side information even if you took apart everything on the client. Otherwise I agree with your logic. There's no point to do weird tricks when they can squezze spending through many things right out in the open and they can basically invent as many of them as they want.
Picture proof, not numbers that you manually entered. That’s the same as CG saying it’s 30 whatever percent and showing a table that they filled out
This must be the most fun post to exist on the forums. Someone who can't even track drops wants to cross check through thousands of pics and see if they fit the charts.
Indeed. The best bit is that, during the double drops, JDIII posted a grand total of 2 screen shots of 0/5 as his evidence of reduced drop rate. Granted, he posted them in multiple threads, but they were the same 2 images.
So, either he only simmed 10 battles throughout the whole of the double drop period, or he's only posting the pictures that support his claim.
Either way, I appreciate his candour. There is little point trying to convince someone who dismisses the evidence presented in this thread whilst simultaneously requesting evidence he himself doesn't provide.
Picture proof, not numbers that you manually entered. That’s the same as CG saying it’s 30 whatever percent and showing a table that they filled out
This must be the most fun post to exist on the forums. Someone who can't even track drops wants to cross check through thousands of pics and see if they fit the charts.
Heck, even if you post the pics, he/she'd be like "They are the same pics" or "Photoshop" or whatever.
I don't have enough sims to be sure yet, but I feel like gear might be 25% not 20%.
My Signal Data is throwing off total % at the top but if you look at most farms, only a couple are in the teens.
Seems like 25% is the more likely figure.
You should definitely separate out the signal data since that is not gear. It’s known to have WAY higher drop rates, and that will drag your average up.
You also need to separate out different types/colors of gear. Purples, blues, greens and golds all have wildly different drop rates. Some are higher than 20%. Some are lower. Supposedly.
Those two things + lots more drops will give you a more accurate picture.
Picture proof, not numbers that you manually entered. That’s the same as CG saying it’s 30 whatever percent and showing a table that they filled out
So every other player that's not you is making up drop data? That's what you're going with? Wow. You might want to loosen that tin foil hat - I think it's cut off the blood supply to your brain this time. Good Lord.
Here's a thought. Track the data yourself for 2 months if you don't believe anyone else then.
In game name: Lucas Gregory FORMER PLAYER - - - -"Whale blah grump poooop." - Ouchie
In game guild: TNR Uprising I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
*This space left intentionally blank*
Picture proof, not numbers that you manually entered. That’s the same as CG saying it’s 30 whatever percent and showing a table that they filled out
The funny bit here is that I did capture all of these drops with pics until I recorded them. But I am not going to post every pic, get real. You wouldn't verify the data anyway, likely just find some other made-up reason why it is not correct.
Track it yourself and you will see.
Why in the world would I spend all this time (since September!) just making up data? To push a conspiratorial agenda meant to delude you into believing in a false drop rate on a mobile game? It may be hard for you to believe, but my life has a bit more purpose to it than that.
Not much more purpose to be sure, but definitely more.
Picture proof, not numbers that you manually entered. That’s the same as CG saying it’s 30 whatever percent and showing a table that they filled out
This must be the most fun post to exist on the forums. Someone who can't even track drops wants to cross check through thousands of pics and see if they fit the charts.
Indeed. The best bit is that, during the double drops, JDIII posted a grand total of 2 screen shots of 0/5 as his evidence of reduced drop rate. Granted, he posted them in multiple threads, but they were the same 2 images.
So, either he only simmed 10 battles throughout the whole of the double drop period, or he's only posting the pictures that support his claim.
Either way, I appreciate his candour. There is little point trying to convince someone who dismisses the evidence presented in this thread whilst simultaneously requesting evidence he himself doesn't provide.
Afraid your wrong there buddy. I have lots of pics about those drops, but I received a spamming warning about showing too many pics. Against the rules
Picture proof, not numbers that you manually entered. That’s the same as CG saying it’s 30 whatever percent and showing a table that they filled out
This must be the most fun post to exist on the forums. Someone who can't even track drops wants to cross check through thousands of pics and see if they fit the charts.
Indeed. The best bit is that, during the double drops, JDIII posted a grand total of 2 screen shots of 0/5 as his evidence of reduced drop rate. Granted, he posted them in multiple threads, but they were the same 2 images.
So, either he only simmed 10 battles throughout the whole of the double drop period, or he's only posting the pictures that support his claim.
Either way, I appreciate his candour. There is little point trying to convince someone who dismisses the evidence presented in this thread whilst simultaneously requesting evidence he himself doesn't provide.
Afraid your wrong there buddy. I have lots of pics about those drops, but I received a spamming warning about showing too many pics. Against the rules
Picture proof, not words that you manually entered. That’s the same as CG saying it’s 30 whatever percent and showing a table that they filled out
L5B Droideka: 162/470 = 34.5% (7*)
Collected the 330th shard for Droideka today, so time to harvest! As a reminder, I started recording data for L5B drops after I had already collected 158 shards. So what you see here only reflects farming the last 172 shards.
Results
470 attempts, 162 drops, 172 shards
34.5% drop rate = 162/470
5-pt moving average
Nominal Range: 12.0% - 60.0%
Special Event Range: 28.0% - 40.0%
Gear drops
Blue gear: Mk4 Holo Lens (30.9%), Mk4 Scanner (34.3%)
Purple gear: Mk2 Bacta Gel (24.3%), Mk6 Scanner (24.9%)
Sim Tickets: 7.4%
Awesome figures
GAS event announced batches 22-24, highlighted in yellow bars (4/15=26.7% drop rate)
GAS event occurred batches 25-28, highlighted in orange bars (9/20=45.0% drop rate)
2x drop event occurred batches 69-74, highlighted in green bars (10/30=33.3% drop rate)
Shard drops that occurred 2x drops were only counted once per drop event when calculating the drop rate.
Drop count histogram
0/5 events occurred at a 13.8% rate
1/5 events occurred at a 30.8% rate
2/5 events occurred at a 34.0% rate
3/5 events occurred at a 12.8% rate
4/5 events occurred at a 7.4% rate
5/5 events occurred at a 1.1% rate
A commonly heard complaint is that drop rates seem to fall off sharply when approaching a star threshold, presumably to encourage crystal spending via node and/or energy refresh. Let's briefly look at that.
Approaching 6* (230 shards):
Shard 225 collected on batch 42; only 5 to go until 6*!
Batch 43: 2/5 += 227
Batch 44: 0/5 += 227
Batch 45: 1/5 += 228
Batch 46: 1/5 += 229
Batch 47: 3/5 += 232 (6* +2)
Average drop rate over batch 43-46 was 4/20=20.0%. Average drop rate 43-47 was 7/25=28.0%
Approaching 7* (330 shards):
Shard 325 collected on batch 90
Batch 91: 2/5 += 327
Batch 92: 1/5 += 328
Batch 93: 0/5 += 328
Batch 94: 2/5 += 330 (7*)
Average drop rate over batch 91-93 was 3/15=20.0%. Average drop rate 91-94 was 5/20=25.0%
It is of some interest that drop rates fell to 20% within 5 shards of the star thresholds, below the overall observed rate of 34.5%.
Threshold drop rates are within observed 5-pt moving average variation.
0/5 events occurred twice out of nine batches (2/9 = 22.2%), or more often than the overall 13.8% rate for such events.
No solid evidence of drop rate roll-off at the star thresholds, but it is interesting that some reduction was noted.
In other news, drop rates on the other farms of interest is currently:
Darn, forgot to mention something, sorry. One day I realized that the drop rate should be reflected in the slope of the line on the Total Shards vs. Batch plot, except the 2x drop would throw that off a bit. So I made a new plot of Drop Events vs. Batch. Fitting a linear trendline to the plot via least-squares analysis should give the typical drop rate over the course of the farm.
Result: linear trendline slope of 1.727 drop events per batch is equivalent to 34.53% drop rate. The Coefficient of Determination (R-squared) is used as a measure of how well the linear trendline fits the data and may vary anywhere between 0.000 and 1.000; a value of 0.995 means the linear trendline is a very good fit. We may conclude that 34.5% is a very good estimate of the drop rate on this node.
Replies
The SWGOH 4th Anniversary Double-Drop event has just concluded, which boosted my Shaak Ti farming quite a bit due to spending some crystals and refreshing the node a few times. This was enough to get me past the 6* threshold, so it's time to update the results
An oft-heard complaint during double drops is "2x0=0" or that drop rates are systematically halved during these events. if you refresh the node a few times, you are not likely to get ZERO shards . Unfortunately it IS possible to still completely draw a blank, but it's not likely. Drop rates during the 2x period were:
- F5A - Shaak Ti: 22/45=48.9% for 44 shards (nice!)
- F58 - B1: 8/25=32.0% for 16 shards
- L8B - Droideka/Xanadu: 10/30=33.3% (Droideka), 6/30=20.0% (Xanadu)
So I got hella good Shaak Ti rates. Xanadu was a little low but not outside the realm of experience if you look at how the 5-pt moving average has fluctuated during the recording period.In the following charts, drops during the 2X event are highlighted with green bars. As a reminder, the yellow and orange bars highlight the drops I got leading up to and during the General Skywalker event.
Shaak Ti: 33.9%
- 171 drops / 505 attempts = 33.9%
- Blue gear ~20%
- Purple gear ~20%
- Ship ability mats Mk1-3: 4%
- Reinforcement mats ~15%
- Ship Omegas ~5%
Devs must have cranked up the drop rates during 2X because they fell at nearly a 50% rate for me: 45 attempts, 22 drops, 44 shards. Thanks CG!Thought it might be interesting to show how often I get 0/5, 1/5, 2/5, etc. so I binned them up in the following chart:
Droideka: 33.1%
Blue gear dropping at 33%, purple gear dropping at 25%. Went 0/5 twice on Droideka but still managed a full 33.3% drop rate during 2X (30 attempts, 10 drops, 20 shards).
Xanadu Blood: 34.9%
Xanadu was running high around 38% for a long time, I was wondering if that was going to hold up. Sadly RNG is catching up with me, went 0/5 twice during 2X to net a measly 20% (30 attempts, 6 drops, 12 shards).
B1 Battle Droid: 34.0%
I didn't push very hard here during 2X, was concentrating on Shaak Ti. Got 40% during 2X (20 attempts, 8 drops, 16 shards). Blue gear dropping around 25% I guess, gold gear at 16%. Ship ability mats look like 4%, with 15% on reinforcement mats and 5% on ship omegas.
Will update the OP with some of this as well. RNG can be rough, just keep plugging away.
In game guild: TNR Uprising
I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
*This space left intentionally blank*
Oh nooooes, data! I'm burning, burning. Thanks for breaking it down in numerous ways and all the work.
They know I want to run Xanadu with Malevolence! Tricky tricky devs.
But go on simming in twos on odd hours and threes on Tuesdays and thinking you gamed the system
You can't find out about server side information even if you took apart everything on the client. Otherwise I agree with your logic. There's no point to do weird tricks when they can squezze spending through many things right out in the open and they can basically invent as many of them as they want.
Indeed. The best bit is that, during the double drops, JDIII posted a grand total of 2 screen shots of 0/5 as his evidence of reduced drop rate. Granted, he posted them in multiple threads, but they were the same 2 images.
So, either he only simmed 10 battles throughout the whole of the double drop period, or he's only posting the pictures that support his claim.
Either way, I appreciate his candour. There is little point trying to convince someone who dismisses the evidence presented in this thread whilst simultaneously requesting evidence he himself doesn't provide.
Heck, even if you post the pics, he/she'd be like "They are the same pics" or "Photoshop" or whatever.
2019 in a nut shell—“I don’t care what the data shows, I feel like this is the truth instead, so it is.”
My Signal Data is throwing off total % at the top but if you look at most farms, only a couple are in the teens.
Seems like 25% is the more likely figure.
You should definitely separate out the signal data since that is not gear. It’s known to have WAY higher drop rates, and that will drag your average up.
You also need to separate out different types/colors of gear. Purples, blues, greens and golds all have wildly different drop rates. Some are higher than 20%. Some are lower. Supposedly.
Those two things + lots more drops will give you a more accurate picture.
Yup. All three of which are way over 20%.
So every other player that's not you is making up drop data? That's what you're going with? Wow. You might want to loosen that tin foil hat - I think it's cut off the blood supply to your brain this time. Good Lord.
Here's a thought. Track the data yourself for 2 months if you don't believe anyone else then.
In game guild: TNR Uprising
I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
*This space left intentionally blank*
The funny bit here is that I did capture all of these drops with pics until I recorded them. But I am not going to post every pic, get real. You wouldn't verify the data anyway, likely just find some other made-up reason why it is not correct.
Track it yourself and you will see.
Not much more purpose to be sure, but definitely more.
You could summarise them for us?
Picture proof, not words that you manually entered. That’s the same as CG saying it’s 30 whatever percent and showing a table that they filled out
L5B Droideka: 162/470 = 34.5% (7*)
Collected the 330th shard for Droideka today, so time to harvest! As a reminder, I started recording data for L5B drops after I had already collected 158 shards. So what you see here only reflects farming the last 172 shards.
Results
Awesome figures
- GAS event announced batches 22-24, highlighted in yellow bars (4/15=26.7% drop rate)
- GAS event occurred batches 25-28, highlighted in orange bars (9/20=45.0% drop rate)
- 2x drop event occurred batches 69-74, highlighted in green bars (10/30=33.3% drop rate)
Shard drops that occurred 2x drops were only counted once per drop event when calculating the drop rate.Drop count histogram
A commonly heard complaint is that drop rates seem to fall off sharply when approaching a star threshold, presumably to encourage crystal spending via node and/or energy refresh. Let's briefly look at that.
- Approaching 6* (230 shards):
- Shard 225 collected on batch 42; only 5 to go until 6*!
- Batch 43: 2/5 += 227
- Batch 44: 0/5 += 227
- Batch 45: 1/5 += 228
- Batch 46: 1/5 += 229
- Batch 47: 3/5 += 232 (6* +2)
- Average drop rate over batch 43-46 was 4/20=20.0%. Average drop rate 43-47 was 7/25=28.0%
- Approaching 7* (330 shards):
- Shard 325 collected on batch 90
- Batch 91: 2/5 += 327
- Batch 92: 1/5 += 328
- Batch 93: 0/5 += 328
- Batch 94: 2/5 += 330 (7*)
- Average drop rate over batch 91-93 was 3/15=20.0%. Average drop rate 91-94 was 5/20=25.0%
- It is of some interest that drop rates fell to 20% within 5 shards of the star thresholds, below the overall observed rate of 34.5%.
- Threshold drop rates are within observed 5-pt moving average variation.
- 0/5 events occurred twice out of nine batches (2/9 = 22.2%), or more often than the overall 13.8% rate for such events.
No solid evidence of drop rate roll-off at the star thresholds, but it is interesting that some reduction was noted.In other news, drop rates on the other farms of interest is currently:
Stay tuned for the exciting conclusion.
Result: linear trendline slope of 1.727 drop events per batch is equivalent to 34.53% drop rate. The Coefficient of Determination (R-squared) is used as a measure of how well the linear trendline fits the data and may vary anywhere between 0.000 and 1.000; a value of 0.995 means the linear trendline is a very good fit. We may conclude that 34.5% is a very good estimate of the drop rate on this node.
If you want it to be less accurate...
It’s common for trend lines to have limited validity at the extremities of a graph.