Anyone else seeing a significant reduction in the drop rates?
I'm curious if anyone else is seeing a significant reduction in the drop rates across the board? For roughly the last 1.5 to 2 weeks, my drop rates have cratered consistently. 5 attempts at a hard a day usually gives 0 or 1 shard. For gear like golden eyeball pieces, I've gone 16 attempts in a row without a single drop. Fleet 5c used to drop a Mk 4 Zactin Bacta Gel Salvage pretty reliably at the rate of 2 per roughly 5 attempts. Now it's usually less than 1 in 10, sometimes way less. And even 10-energy nodes that used to drop shards at a good rate (FOX, etc) now seem to drop at less than half the prior rate.
I figured there was a chance I was just having bad luck, but to see this consistently across a nearly 2-week period seems pretty unlikely to be luck.
So am I just imagining this change somehow, or is anyone else noticing the same change?
I figured there was a chance I was just having bad luck, but to see this consistently across a nearly 2-week period seems pretty unlikely to be luck.
So am I just imagining this change somehow, or is anyone else noticing the same change?
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Howdy, Stranger!
Replies
* (too lazy to find a gif)
In game guild: TNR Uprising
I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
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Well you have no evidence since I've been getting 3/5s and such.
2 weeks is nothing
The answer is "actual data". Preferably that you actually tracked with a decent enough sample size to allow for variance.
Amazingly, you'll find that drop rates are about 33%.. Like they always are. Always.
In game guild: TNR Uprising
I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
*This space left intentionally blank*
Other folks in my guild were mentioning the same observation unprompted, so I thought to ask here. Apparently some of you folks are too up-tight to answer a simple question without freaking the hell out.
Nah I just like using memes c:
And others are generally crazy mad because the forums are toxic (me included) and there has been dozens of these posts with the same no evidence clause
I answered and even gave you the precise percentage of the drop rate that is always the case when ever anyone (or an entire guild) has actually tracked drop rates. Always. Who's freaking out?
In game guild: TNR Uprising
I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
*This space left intentionally blank*
Do a forum search for “drop rate”. There are literally 100s of threads making similar claims to this one, and they all have something in common.
The data is never robust and it is always based on a small sample size.
Robust data would be something specific, like “I’ve done 485 attempts on Shaak Ti’s node and earned 174 shards which is 35.8% drop rate”. Your post is full of “roughly” and “usually” and “seem to”. The wording suggests you’re basing your findings on memory and instinct, which are fallible and can suffer from a thing called “confirmation bias”.
Then there’s sample size. The one bit of robust data you posted was the 16 attempts for a gold eyeball with no drops. That does sound unlucky, but 16 attempts is way too small a sample to base any meaningful conclusion on. I am a maths teacher, but I’m no statistician, so I won’t offer what sort of sample size would be meaningful, but any time I’ve tracked drop rates I have settled on the expected drop rates well before 100 attempts.
On top of that is the logical approach. If every post claiming drop rates had been lowered had any truth to it, the drop rates would be pretty much zero now. Same goes for particular characters. Searching the forums you’ll find pretty much every character being identified as lower drop rates than the rest.
Shard drop rates: 33% always for all toons on all nodes.
Purple gear: 20-22% for all pieces on all nodes.
Gold gear: I don’t want to guess, but whatever it is, it’s the same today as it was yesterday and the same as it will be tomorrow.
@ZiroZeroNine If you truly want a serious debate about changes in drop rates please present your numbers about drop rates before and after the change. You claim to have made an observation and that your guild mates have observed the same. Please present to us, what you observed.
Which is why we have science and statistics... to tell us our experiences are wrong.
If you do anything involving random chance tens or hundreds of thousands of times you are increasingly likely to see the improbable. Nobody comes here to ask if CG has suddenly turned into a charity if they get a few good drops in a row. A week of feeling like you’re drops are bad is normal occasionally if it’s true. Also likely is that you just remember the bad ones more because a common cognitive bias is that rotten experiences stick in our heads more than things that are just OK happening to us.
Track your drops meticulously for a year by category. That is your evidence. Your experience as evidence is zero evidence.
Better safe than sorry.
Maybe. But I tracked drops on characters that were half what I know them to be for 2 months. When I farmed Lando (Old blue cape Lando 3 years ago) I maintained a 14% drop rate the whole time. But overall my drops for the year were right on target.
Bigger sample size = more accurate data.
- Grand Admiral Thrawn
Give us some data so we can to talking what that data represents even if your sample size is small. We can even calculate the likelihood of your small sample size data happening assuming the expected drop rate hasn't changed. And if we conducted a collective study with larger sample sizes in a given time interval we would be able to speculate if the drop rates really changed.
In my experience I got 7/15 shard tea shards. That's higher than expected %33. And it tells absolutely nothing.
Drop rates are clearly 100% for me, based on this 💪
All have been 1 to 3 drops per day. Holdo has been killing it too. A few 4 and 5 shards per day with no refreshes.
It's been proven over and over and over and over and OVER AND OVER
AND OVER
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It's all in your head.
I am freaking out, there was a huge spider in my bed this morning.