Horrible Drop rate since last update

Dame_Borgia

I'm not sure where else to post this. Since the last update the drop rate dropped to virtually nothingness. For Bastila Shan (dark side) I didn't get any shards for 5 days in a row now, that is 25 trys with no, absolutely no success. The last 3 weeks I collected 10 shards. That means getting her to 7 stars will take me about another 1.5 years. Also the drop rate for many other chars have decreased, e.g. Shaak ti almost every 2nd day no shard, else one shard. Does EA want us to drop the game? Almost a third of the members or my contact list have stopped playing during the last two months. I also consider changing to something else because if there is no chance to get Darth Raven or Darth Malek without huge investments the game is no longer interesting.

Liath

They didn’t change the drop rate. Bad luck is still just bad luck. And no, you cannot extrapolate your little 5 day sample size out to a year.

Dame_Borgia

Interesting, then almost everybody in our guild experiences bad luck. I neither believe in good or bad luck but in mathematics. See, in statistics you can calculate the probability. When you have sample of let's say 100 tries and you get a very large deviation, the something is wrong. With a shard drop rate of 30% a player would gain 30 shards per 100 tries, now during the past few weeks I received 10 shards with 5 tries per day, that is approx. 5*28 = 140. With 30% drop rate the result should be something near 42 shards. 10 shards is less than 25% of the proposed drop rate. This is not bad luck but bad programming. And with a drop rate of 30% 25 tries without any drop should be impossible. It should be about as unlikely as 4 or 5 shards with 5 tries.

Liath

If you actually understand and believe in statistics then you would know that what you’re saying is nonsense.

You expect me to believe that you’ve actually tracked drop rates before and after the update across everybody in your entire guild and gathered a sufficiently large sample size to conclude that the drop rates have changed? Because I don’t believe that. At all.

Random is random. Over small sample sizes you will get outliers. That’s how statistics actually work, and the conclusion is not bad programming. If you always got exactly 33% every time, that wouldn’t be random, and would, in fact be bad programming.

Dame_Borgia

No need to become insulting. It's been a couple of years ago that I learned about random numbers generators in computing. I know the topic is very complex and because of the complexity rather difficult to program. But it is not difficult to troubleshoot. It is also pure math to see when something is wrong and no longer covered by normal outliers. See, the probability of outliers can be calculated as well. I also never said that I expected every time 30%. But I believe that a 100 tries or 1000 tries should give you something near 30% shards and not something like 2.5% shards. I'm sure you know about binomial distribution. To say it bluntly, the drop rate the last few weeks is far from a normal bell form of the binomial distribution but suggests a much lower drop rate.

The drop rate during the last few weeks (and I don't speak about days) has been far from 30%. In case of Bastila our 30% drop rate the chance to get an outlier of 5* days with zero shards is 0.0001341% (considering a 70% chance of 0 shards per try). So if you think a chance of 0.0001341% (this should be about every 2.5 years) is still in the range of normal what would be a sufficient large sample size? But I just spend 25 gold and again got 0 shards and the probability for this (30 tries with 0 shards in a row) drops to 0.0000224% (which would be once in 15 years). Besides Bastila I level several other toons at the moment. All in all that amounts to 60 to 70 tries per day. With so many tries the sample size should be big enough just after a few days - and for single toons after a few weeks to see if something is wrong.

Liath

You keep giving approximate numbers suggesting you haven’t actually tracked anything. There is no sufficient sample size when you’re going off memory and not tracking.

Are you actually claiming that you’ve been doing 60-70 attempts on character shards and gotten zero shard on ANY of those attempts for weeks? Again, if you are claiming that I do not believe you.

Many thousands of people play this game. Over many thousands of people something that only happens once in many thousands of times will occasionally happen to somebody. If something was wrong with the drop rates then everybody would notice it, not just you. My drop rates have been perfectly normal. Since there aren’t hundreds of threads claiming what you’re claiming, chances are most people’s drop rates have been perfectly normal. They didn’t just go into your game and reduce your personal drop rate on Bastila. It didn’t happen.

Vendi1983

"Drop Rate Thread"!

I got SWGOH Forum bingo!

What do I win?

75 Malak shards?

Ironicstan

I was tracking my drop rates for about a 4 month period. The drops almost always stayed at around 30%. If it would drop below, it would catch back up soon.

Interestingly enough, when all the numbers were combined together, your overall drop rate was at about 30%. So even if let's say Shaak Ti was at 27%, your shards from other characters would balance your account to at about 30%.

I haven't tracked them for awhile, but my overall was at about 33% across all drops.

Dame_Borgia

Laith, what is your problem? What do you want me to track? I don't get any Bastila Shan (fallen) shards for 5 days. To be more precise, I do 5 tries a day (today I did 10) for 5 days in a row (that is Friday: 5 tries; Saturday 5 tries; Sunday 5 tries; Monday 5 tries and Tuesday 10 tries) I got no (zero, null, 0) shards. That is 60 consecutive tries in total so far. 60 consecutive tries without any shard that is a hell lot. (Try to toss a coin 60 times on the same side, this is virtually impossible.) It started all a couple of weeks ago when I hit 5 stars. From day that onwards the drop rate went down. Until then everything was fine. This has been around 3 or 4 weeks ago and since then I harvested a total 10 shards. So even then I there was at least very second day no shards and never 2 ore 3 shards. But since Friday no shards at all. It appears that this toon is bugged on my account. Look, I'm not the person to cry out the moment something appears to be odd. After 3 days I became nervous, now after 60 attempts I'm pretty desperate as I planned for the next Darth Raven and that won't work, I already lost a month. See it like this, when deviations like these (a drop rate of less than 10% for the month) are possible then this game is no longer predictable and any money I invest is wasted.

If you look at the outlier's probability it indicates some bug; and from what I know about programming, the reason could be anything and be connected to my account. And I would like to know what it is and how it can be solved.

Vendi1983

@Dame_Borgia nope. You're just having awful luck and fixating on the zeros. Nobody comes on here to post when they go 5/6, 6/6, or greater. They either post 1/5 or 0/5+, or zero omegas and then complain it's rigged. This is despite literally thousands of people tracking hundreds of thousands of sims. An exponentially larger sample size than your 60 tries.

Dame_Borgia

Ironicstan wrote: »

I was tracking my drop rates for about a 4 month period. The drops almost always stayed at around 30%. If it would drop below, it would catch back up soon.

Interestingly enough, when all the numbers were combined together, your overall drop rate was at about 30%. So even if let's say Shaak Ti was at 27%, your shards from other characters would balance your account to at about 30%.

I haven't tracked them for awhile, but my overall was at about 33% across all drops.

I will definitely track them now because there are several which appear to be lot lower, e.g. Boosk. But even with Boosk there were never even 2 days without any shards. As I farm the same toons for month deviations become apparent very soon. As I mentioned before with Bastila it's bad since a few weeks starting from the moment she got her 5th star.

Dame_Borgia

Vendi1983 wrote: »

@Dame_Borgia nope. You're just having awful luck and fixating on the zeros. Nobody comes on here to post when they go 5/6, 6/6, or greater. They either post 1/5 or 0/5+, or zero omegas and then complain it's rigged. This is despite literally thousands of people tracking hundreds of thousands of sims. An exponentially larger sample size than your 60 tries.

As I said luck has nothing to do with it. Computers don't play fate they do math. If somebody always tosses a head for 50 times it is more likely that something is wrong with the coin than you're luck. I also never had anything more than 3 shards for 5 attempts and never those in a row for several days. The probability for such an outlier is sooooo small (0.0000252%). I also don't dispute that other accounts work fine but mine doesn't and there must be a reason for it. BTW the reason I tried a second round today was to sort of force an end to this series. But this didn't work. If I can't get Bastila, I'm done with this game because I can't get Darth Raven or Darth Malak.

littleMAC77

Dame_Borgia wrote: »

Laith, what is your problem? What do you want me to track? I don't get any Bastila Shan (fallen) shards for 5 days. To be more precise, I do 5 tries a day (today I did 10) for 5 days in a row (that is Friday: 5 tries; Saturday 5 tries; Sunday 5 tries; Monday 5 tries and Tuesday 10 tries) I got no (zero, null, 0) shards. That is 60 consecutive tries in total so far. 60 consecutive tries without any shard that is a hell lot. (Try to toss a coin 60 times on the same side, this is virtually impossible.) It started all a couple of weeks ago when I hit 5 stars. From day that onwards the drop rate went down. Until then everything was fine. This has been around 3 or 4 weeks ago and since then I harvested a total 10 shards. So even then I there was at least very second day no shards and never 2 ore 3 shards. But since Friday no shards at all. It appears that this toon is bugged on my account. Look, I'm not the person to cry out the moment something appears to be odd. After 3 days I became nervous, now after 60 attempts I'm pretty desperate as I planned for the next Darth Raven and that won't work, I already lost a month. See it like this, when deviations like these (a drop rate of less than 10% for the month) are possible then this game is no longer predictable and any money I invest is wasted.

If you look at the outlier's probability it indicates some bug; and from what I know about programming, the reason could be anything and be connected to my account. And I would like to know what it is and how it can be solved.

This is only 30 tries, and there is a 0.0022% chance of that occurring. In other word, there is a 22 in 1 million chance of a string of 30 hard node attempts not dropping a shard. (I did this math using the 30% rate quoted here, it drops to 5 in 1 million with the oft quoted 33% drop rate)

TVF

If you don't understand why you need to track your results I think what you seek is beyond the scope of this thread.

TVF

Vendi1983 wrote: »

"Drop Rate Thread"!

I got SWGOH Forum bingo!

What do I win?

You win an invite to the CGDF Discord where we track such things.

Waqui

Dame_Borgia wrote: »

Ironicstan wrote: »

I was tracking my drop rates for about a 4 month period. The drops almost always stayed at around 30%. If it would drop below, it would catch back up soon.

Interestingly enough, when all the numbers were combined together, your overall drop rate was at about 30%. So even if let's say Shaak Ti was at 27%, your shards from other characters would balance your account to at about 30%.

I haven't tracked them for awhile, but my overall was at about 33% across all drops.

I will definitely track them now because there are several which appear to be lot lower, e.g. Boosk.

Sounds great. Will you be posting your results in this discussion or will you create a new one, when your results are ready?

Dame_Borgia

Waqui wrote: »

Dame_Borgia wrote: »

Ironicstan wrote: »

I was tracking my drop rates for about a 4 month period. The drops almost always stayed at around 30%. If it would drop below, it would catch back up soon.

Interestingly enough, when all the numbers were combined together, your overall drop rate was at about 30%. So even if let's say Shaak Ti was at 27%, your shards from other characters would balance your account to at about 30%.

I haven't tracked them for awhile, but my overall was at about 33% across all drops.

I will definitely track them now because there are several which appear to be lot lower, e.g. Boosk.

Sounds great. Will you be posting your results in this discussion or will you create a new one, when your results are ready?

I will post them here. In a month time. 30 days for 14 toons - the once I currently farm, should say at least something. LOL hope there will be any Bastila shards.

Waqui

Dame_Borgia wrote: »

Waqui wrote: »

Dame_Borgia wrote: »

Ironicstan wrote: »

I was tracking my drop rates for about a 4 month period. The drops almost always stayed at around 30%. If it would drop below, it would catch back up soon.

Interestingly enough, when all the numbers were combined together, your overall drop rate was at about 30%. So even if let's say Shaak Ti was at 27%, your shards from other characters would balance your account to at about 30%.

I haven't tracked them for awhile, but my overall was at about 33% across all drops.

I will definitely track them now because there are several which appear to be lot lower, e.g. Boosk.

Sounds great. Will you be posting your results in this discussion or will you create a new one, when your results are ready?

I will post them here. In a month time. 30 days for 14 toons - the once I currently farm, should say at least something. LOL hope there will be any Bastila shards.

I'll follow the discussion then. See you in a month.

Nikoms565

Dame_Borgia wrote: »

Waqui wrote: »

Dame_Borgia wrote: »

Ironicstan wrote: »

I was tracking my drop rates for about a 4 month period. The drops almost always stayed at around 30%. If it would drop below, it would catch back up soon.

Interestingly enough, when all the numbers were combined together, your overall drop rate was at about 30%. So even if let's say Shaak Ti was at 27%, your shards from other characters would balance your account to at about 30%.

I haven't tracked them for awhile, but my overall was at about 33% across all drops.

I will definitely track them now because there are several which appear to be lot lower, e.g. Boosk.

Sounds great. Will you be posting your results in this discussion or will you create a new one, when your results are ready?

I will post them here. In a month time. 30 days for 14 toons - the once I currently farm, should say at least something. LOL hope there will be any Bastila shards.

Just so you're aware - almost everyone and every guild that has actually tracked drop rates over a significant sample size, has ended up at 30-33% drop rate for character shards. Every time. For almost 4 years now.