Evidence For Cheating in TW

Based on SWGOH.gg updates, this opposing guild went from 140M GP the moment their name became available, to 149M GP the day of attacks, to 143M GP today, it's very clear this guild is manipulating GP and moving players around to get paired in lower brackets. Usually, the people going against this give up. We didn't but we ended up losing to these cheaters. I ran the numbers and this is what I found:


Here are the statistics for our guild: BRG Livin' La Vida Y0da (some are pulled from in-game, some are pulled from swgoh.gg):

Total Guild GP: 121M GP
Active GP during TW: 118,942,579 GP (48/49 joined)
Total squads assigned/defeated: 220/220 (22 squads per territory)
Total attempts on our squads: 271 (32+36+29+22+29+29+24+23+25+22, 81% EFF)
Total GP set on defense: 18,908,506
T1: 2,077,075
T2: 2,037,283
T3: 1,770,289
T4: 1,361,108
B1: 2,151,790
B2: 1,922,930
B3: 1,547,813
B4: 1,107,532
F1: 2,279,519
F2: 2,653,167

Here are the statistics for the suspected guild (some are pulled from in-game, some are pulled from swgoh.gg):

Total Guild GP: 149M GP
Not sure about active GP (what we're trying to solve)
Total squads assigned/defeated: 197/220 (22 squads per territory)
Total attempts on their squads: 294 (25+23+27+26+31+28+36+32+66, 67% EFF)
Total GP set on defense: 29,819,479
T1: 2,150,917
T2: 1,833,079
T3: 2,270,411
T4: 2,124,421
B1: 2,153,181
B2: 1,973,253
B3: 2,012,156
B4: 1,605,696
F1: 8,696,365
F2: Did not see, conservatively assuming 5M
.

Here is the important numbers and the comparisons:

149M GP to 119M GP (30M GP deficit, 125% more GP)
29.8M Defensive GP to 18.9M Defensive GP (157% more Defense set)

Conclusion: CG, look at their player movement for the past few days. It's pretty clear they cheated. Please compensate us with winner's rewards for doing all of this work.


Replies

  • No_Try
    4020 posts Member
    Some numbers of players doesn't sign up, you play against the ones that did sign up. It's called tw sandbagging. It should certainly be changed by the developers, but it's not cheating. See you understand what active gp is, so you already know this.
  • TheJEFFtm
    396 posts Member
    edited December 4
    Not even sure that this one was intentionally sandbagging, most higher GP players know that the optimum time to switch guilds is between TWs or between TW/TB so there are no rewards missed.

    But guild Total GP changing has little to no bearing on TW, since you were matched on active GP at the time of pairing.

    Since we know that there were only 22 slots per Territory, and the number of available slots is half the participants of the guild with fewer people signed up (there is a +/- 1 breakpoint for odd numbers, but I’m not sure it has ever been firmly established what those are...), and OP had 48 members sign up (or 24 slots per Territory if the other team had the same number or more), that tells us that they had 44 (or 43, or 45) members sign up (not bad participation, particularly on a major holiday weekend in the United States) out of 140M guild GP (at time of matchup - so approximately 2.8M GP average per player, and in fact, probably a bit higher, as there are 2 or more empty slots in the opposing guild that we can’t ‘see’ after the fact, but we do know that during the event the GP was reported at 149M, so there are likely - given that average GP - only 47 members in the guild at the time of pairing).

    Assume worst matchmaking case of 45 members joined, they are down 5 times 2.8M average. Or around 126M active GP at time of launch.

    That is still only an 8M GP difference, or barely more than a 5% difference in GP. (If they were at 43 signed up, that is only 2.4M GP difference) Well within the match making differences we have seen for some time.

    Is it unfortunate that you faced a guild at an average player GP 20% higher than yours (2.4 vs 2.8, or as much as 4 100K teams per player!)?
    Yes it is.
    Is it considered cheating to ‘sandbag’?
    No, it isn’t. Unsportsmanlike, perhaps, gaming the system, definitely...
    Is it possible that this small of a difference (especially in a guild that appears to be having some problem retaining members as witnessed by the fluctuation of their overall GP as people pass through) wasn’t even done intentionally?
    Very much so.

    (EDIT: spelling, grammar, and punctuation corrections, expanded theory craft in opposing guild membership)
    Post edited by TheJEFFtm on
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