The state of the game...

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leef
13371 posts Member
edited January 6
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december 2019 was the 2nd most profitable month in the last 3 years (maybe ever). Work your magic fellow forum users and explain how that is actually a bad and a clear sign that the game is dying.
Save water, drink champagne!
Post edited by Kyno on

Replies

  • Jarvind
    3245 posts Member
    Clearly this means that only the whales are spending! Mass F2P exodus! The bottom is falling out!
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  • Ultra
    4911 posts Member
    Android exclusive incoming to re-assert their dominance
  • You forgot “should be” in the title.
  • Gifafi
    2984 posts Member
    CG must be allowing ftp to p!
  • People said the game was dying in December 2018 too.

    Yeah OK
  • TVF
    19855 posts Member
    TheRHOMBUS wrote: »
    You forgot “should be” in the title.

    Hot take
    TVF's guild is recruiting. Say hi in our Discord! https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • Nihion
    2438 posts Member
    What I’m seeing is a drop over summer (maybe Malak sting) and then a small bump in early October (LEGO set release) and then an incline with Mando and TROS. I think the future of Star Wars is pretty secure. Looks like a jump with Darth Revan too, so maybe some movies... right Disney?...
  • TVF
    19855 posts Member
    harping about how great they are doing?

    Haha what.
    TVF's guild is recruiting. Say hi in our Discord! https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • Nihion
    2438 posts Member
    It is so sad when people who play games measure whether a community or fun or the game's health by corporate profits.

    I'm an officer in a large guild family. Turnover is worse than ever. Almost nobody is having fun. Every couple of weeks there is a new straw that broke the camel's back for another group of our members. A huge portion of people are just holding on hoping something changes soon, others are just becoming increasingly casual.

    You can't tell me that isn't the case because that is what I actually see constantly with my own two eyes.

    This tells me however much money they are making, it could be far more. I know whales that are done spending because they bought GAS and second round FTP have beat them to 7* 7 relic.

    Just to chip in, (my specialty) your max guild sample size is 50 people on a constant. I think this year is going to be better because of the slowness they are withstanding.
  • TVF
    19855 posts Member
    Nihion wrote: »
    It is so sad when people who play games measure whether a community or fun or the game's health by corporate profits.

    I'm an officer in a large guild family. Turnover is worse than ever. Almost nobody is having fun. Every couple of weeks there is a new straw that broke the camel's back for another group of our members. A huge portion of people are just holding on hoping something changes soon, others are just becoming increasingly casual.

    You can't tell me that isn't the case because that is what I actually see constantly with my own two eyes.

    This tells me however much money they are making, it could be far more. I know whales that are done spending because they bought GAS and second round FTP have beat them to 7* 7 relic.

    Just to chip in, (my specialty) your max guild sample size is 50 people on a constant. I think this year is going to be better because of the slowness they are withstanding.

    Take another read.

    I'm an officer in a family of guilds that is spread out and organized around people's goals in the game and GP. My sample size is hundreds.

    LMK when I should stop believing my own constant experience and what should be obvious to everyone actively involved in this community: that CG is leaving money on the table and less and less people are finding the game actually fun.

    Still anecdotal.
    TVF's guild is recruiting. Say hi in our Discord! https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • SamAccountX
    72 posts Member
    edited January 6
    Nihion wrote: »
    It is so sad when people who play games measure whether a community or fun or the game's health by corporate profits.

    I'm an officer in a large guild family. Turnover is worse than ever. Almost nobody is having fun. Every couple of weeks there is a new straw that broke the camel's back for another group of our members. A huge portion of people are just holding on hoping something changes soon, others are just becoming increasingly casual.

    You can't tell me that isn't the case because that is what I actually see constantly with my own two eyes.

    This tells me however much money they are making, it could be far more. I know whales that are done spending because they bought GAS and second round FTP have beat them to 7* 7 relic.

    Just to chip in, (my specialty) your max guild sample size is 50 people on a constant. I think this year is going to be better because of the slowness they are withstanding.

    Take another read.

    I'm an officer in a family of guilds that is spread out and organized around people's goals in the game and GP. My sample size is hundreds.

    LMK when I should stop believing my own constant experience and what should be obvious to everyone actively involved in this community: that CG is leaving money on the table and less and less people are finding the game actually fun.

    Something the we all know is lacking is actual quantitative metrics. Assuming you're on the level with your sample pool, you should actually track these metrics weekly so we have some quantifiable data over time:
    • Number of new players joining
    • Number of new members coming from an unrelated guild
    • Number of current members retiring from the game
    • Number of members moving to a different unrelated guild

    Taking this a step further, I'd suggest you reach out to some of the other conglomerate guilds to compile this info. Having this kind of data will go a long way in helping us (the community) discuss the state of the community with CG as we will actually have metrics of our own.

    Anything short of this is effectively hearsay or anecdotal (not saying 'inaccurate', just 'unsubstantiated').
  • TVF
    19855 posts Member
    Nihion wrote: »
    It is so sad when people who play games measure whether a community or fun or the game's health by corporate profits.

    I'm an officer in a large guild family. Turnover is worse than ever. Almost nobody is having fun. Every couple of weeks there is a new straw that broke the camel's back for another group of our members. A huge portion of people are just holding on hoping something changes soon, others are just becoming increasingly casual.

    You can't tell me that isn't the case because that is what I actually see constantly with my own two eyes.

    This tells me however much money they are making, it could be far more. I know whales that are done spending because they bought GAS and second round FTP have beat them to 7* 7 relic.

    Just to chip in, (my specialty) your max guild sample size is 50 people on a constant. I think this year is going to be better because of the slowness they are withstanding.

    Take another read.

    I'm an officer in a family of guilds that is spread out and organized around people's goals in the game and GP. My sample size is hundreds.

    LMK when I should stop believing my own constant experience and what should be obvious to everyone actively involved in this community: that CG is leaving money on the table and less and less people are finding the game actually fun.

    Something the we all know is lacking is actual quantitative metrics. Assuming you're on the level with your sample pool, you should actually track these metrics weekly so we have some quantifiable data over time:
    • Number of new players joining
    • Number of new members coming from an unrelated guild
    • Number of current members retiring from the game
    • Number of members moving to a different unrelated guild

    Anything short of this is effectively hearsay or anecdotal (not saying 'inaccurate', just 'unsubstantiated').

    Briefly ninja'd
    TVF's guild is recruiting. Say hi in our Discord! https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • ScummerAntilles
    77 posts Member
    edited January 6
    I am literally a social scientist, you are talking about the method in which data is collected. In this case, I collected it over years of experience, observation, and commitment to knowing how the game is being perceived because I have made managing a guild in this game a major hobby. You are calling data anecdotal because a person collected it, rather than a person designing a collection system. At the end it is all a human collection system. Except in my case, variables examined aren't limited to "total cash spent aggregate" nor does my position posit that the measure of a community's health is whether the designers made money.

    I don't think you really understand how data works and what constitutes good data.
  • Jarvind
    3245 posts Member
    I am literally a social scientist, you are talking about the method in which data is collected. In this case, I collected it over years of experience, observation, and commitment to knowing how the game is being perceived because I have made managing a guild in this game a major hobby. You are calling data anecdotal because a person collected it, rather than a person designing a collection system. At the end it is all a human collection system. Except in my case, variables examined aren't limited to "total cash spent aggregate" nor does my position posit that the measure of a community's health is whether the designers made money.

    I don't think you really understand how data works and what constitutes good data.

    If you collected data, then let's see your data. Numbers. Actual quantifiable information and not just "it's bad because I'm not enjoying it."

    Anything less makes you a liar.
    u58t4vkrvnrz.png



  • I am literally a social scientist, you are talking about the method in which data is collected. In this case, I collected it over years of experience, observation, and commitment to knowing how the game is being perceived because I have made managing a guild in this game a major hobby. You are calling data anecdotal because a person collected it, rather than a person designing a collection system. At the end it is all a human collection system. Except in my case, variables examined aren't limited to "total cash spent aggregate" nor does my position posit that the measure of a community's health is whether the designers made money.

    I don't think you really understand how data works and what constitutes good data.

    I have no problems with a person designing a data collection system as well as the data, but it still needs to be done in a methodical, quantifiable, and consistent manner to actually stand up to scrutiny and peer review. As a social scientist, you should know that.
  • ScummerAntilles
    77 posts Member
    edited January 6
    I am literally a social scientist, you are talking about the method in which data is collected. In this case, I collected it over years of experience, observation, and commitment to knowing how the game is being perceived because I have made managing a guild in this game a major hobby. You are calling data anecdotal because a person collected it, rather than a person designing a collection system. At the end it is all a human collection system. Except in my case, variables examined aren't limited to "total cash spent aggregate" nor does my position posit that the measure of a community's health is whether the designers made money.

    I don't think you really understand how data works and what constitutes good data.

    I have no problems with a person designing a data collection system as well as the data, but it still needs to be done in a methodical, quantifiable, and consistent manner to actually stand up to scrutiny and peer review. As a social scientist, you should know that.

    All data is qualitative. This is one of the first rules of data. A question like health of a community or an ongoing shared experience is not a quantitative question, and attempts to make it so require a qualitative evaluation of what health even means before you can try to (and why you would add this step, I don't know - I mean you could if you think numbers help answer the specific question... but do you need this step for *this* question?) take human experience, translate that into a quantitive measure, and then re-translate that into a qualitative conclusion that answers the question.

    I don't know - do you just totally dismiss the findings when the methods are surveys, interviews, or anything that can't go through the alchemy of translation to numbers then retranslation back to qualitative assessment?

    BTW a long direct relationship with 300+ gamers from a position to assess the experience of those gamers is significant.
  • Ultra
    4911 posts Member
    Dunno about dying but is cg repeating the same mistakes over and over then harping about how great they are doing?

    Yes. A simple yes. This year had more hurt feelings than ever too but I'm guessing there's no chart for that XD

    Hurt feelings = profit

    So why not do more?
  • New movie + new advertising of swgoh + new players + hyperbull bundle + return of gas event = higher revanue. I'd be more more interested to see "retaining player" stats in March maybe.
  • Jarvind wrote: »
    I am literally a social scientist, you are talking about the method in which data is collected. In this case, I collected it over years of experience, observation, and commitment to knowing how the game is being perceived because I have made managing a guild in this game a major hobby. You are calling data anecdotal because a person collected it, rather than a person designing a collection system. At the end it is all a human collection system. Except in my case, variables examined aren't limited to "total cash spent aggregate" nor does my position posit that the measure of a community's health is whether the designers made money.

    I don't think you really understand how data works and what constitutes good data.

    If you collected data, then let's see your data. Numbers. Actual quantifiable information and not just "it's bad because I'm not enjoying it."

    Anything less makes you a liar.

    I was kind enough to explain to you, in the post you quote, if you were a good enough reader that conflating "data" and "quantification" is a pretty clear indicator that you don't know what data is or how it is used to assess reality.

    Plato's Republic is a book. I can see X trends in how people rely to Y stimulus, based on what they say. When I mix this chemical with that chemical, it smells like vanilla. If you think those kinds of measures or statements aren't data... wow... please stop speaking with a voice of authority.

    You can't convince me I don't know what I know and now that I'm not actually my own profession with some lazy smug understanding that I am literally paid to disabuse people of when I train them on how to use data and what it is.

    If you want me to go further on this I will require you to pay me, this is my trade and I don't work for free.

    If you are trying to argue most people are enjoying the game right now I feel sorry for you. I'm glad it gives you comfort that CG made a lot of money...

    I would like to read all of those published scientific papers out there based on the kind of "data" you present in this thread. Imagine a real scientist proposing a theory with "well in my group of a few hundred online friends, the sentiment of the group feels negative to me. Based on this very concrete data, i propose that the entire population of players of the game has an overall negative sentiment"

    Sorry, but what you provided is not good data. It may be a data point, and if you had tracked the things proposed in this thread (a legitimately great idea btw) you would have many data points. But as it is, you have a single anecdotal piece of information that is really no better than me saying the game is great because we have gotten more incoming recruits this month than the past few combined.
    Looking for a new guild? Come check out Wa Da Tah on Discord: https://discord.gg/SFYjRkk
  • The game will die once the SW content ends.

    So after Mandalorian rip.
  • TVF
    19855 posts Member
    Baby_Yoda wrote: »
    The game will die once the SW content ends.

    So after Mandalorian rip.

    Non sensical.
    TVF's guild is recruiting. Say hi in our Discord! https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • All data is qualitative.

    Ok, this just isn't true. A lot of it is, to be sure, but that is just as foolish as saying all data is quantitative, there is such a thing as objectivity. As for the rest of it:
    This is one of the first rules of data. A question like health of a community or an ongoing shared experience is not a quantitative question, and attempts to make it so require a qualitative evaluation of what health even means before you can try to (and why you would add this step, I don't know - I mean you could if you think numbers help answer the specific question... but do you need this step for *this* question?) take human experience, translate that into a quantitive measure, and then re-translate that into a qualitative conclusion that answers the question.

    I don't know - do you just totally dismiss the findings when the methods are surveys, interviews, or anything that can't go through the alchemy of translation to numbers then retranslation back to qualitative assessment?

    BTW a long direct relationship with 300+ gamers from a position to assess the experience of those gamers is significant.

    I mostly agree with you, but quantitative data can be a component in helping answer this question as it will have qualitative connotations, just as the qualitative data does. Also I will believe research properly carried out, one person saying they have been told by a few people that a lot of people are unhappy and so everyone must be is not research. That's hearsay and confirmation bias and you should know that.
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