The state of the game...

Replies

  • @ScummerAntilles

    Look, idiography is valid, and you can publish papers based on it, but you can't validly generalize from an idiographic subject (individual or group) to a larger population.

    That's why you work hand in hand with the people who study demographics of the entire population to which you would like to generalize. You compare your cohort to the larger population and look at where your demographic variables differ from that of the total pop. then you crunch the numbers and analyze how your cumulative or average measurements would change if your cohort's demographics matched the general population. Only then can you truly, validly generalize.

    I'm not doubting your ability to practice careful or systematic observation, but without weighting the cohort to match the population (or at the very, very least randomly sampling - which going only by your guild membership does not do) your conclusions are on quite shaky ground.

    You **might** be right about the population at large. But it's also true that you might be wrong about the pop at large. It could be that there are more new players than ever and a larger percentage of new players are spending money than ever. It might be that these games have fairly natural lifespans where after two or three years people just start drifting away and looking for something new even if the game is good and healthy. In that case, your cohort might have actually lasted a bit longer than normal (which could be easily explained by your excellent efforts to run a good and helpful guild that therefore improves player experience) before hitting a wall in the last 6 months.

    Now, I personally am having less fun in the game. I'm also playing more casually. I don't see how I can maintain my old level of play and still progress meaningfully quickly towards competence in LS Geo TB, and that's discouraging. But I can't play the Sith raid every time, and even if you play, the rewards of g12 salvage are woefully insufficient unless you're in the top 3, which requires not just active play but luck. I can finish first in HSTR (and have) but there are at least 2 people I can't outscore, and so if they are available and actively playing the raid for a max score, the best I can finish is 3rd, and I'm usually down around 5th.

    All that means that my g12 toons can't progress to g13 with reasonable speed. It's discouraging. It's frustrating. It's not fun. So I get it. But I'm not an average player. I'm at 5M gp and with the exception of a single, continuous, 5-6 month break, I've been playing almost since the game started. It's now 3 years without a break for me, and with progress slowing I don't really know if I'll still be playing in another 6 months. Maybe, but maybe not. The failure to progress in new and interesting ways is making things a lot less fun.

    But if I were only a year into the game? With so much content to look forward to trying? I might be having a lot MORE fun than actual-me had when starting this game 4 years ago.

    In short, it's only a bout of hubris that would allow me to think that my experience was average. It's normal, in the sense that others are having it and I'm not a freak for experiencing this. But it's not average.

    So, sure, tell us your observations. Write up an article about your guild experience if you want. I'm sure you can get it through peer review.

    But let's not pretend that we know your experience generalizes across the game until we have some other studies with some other methodologies that support that conclusion.
  • Nihion
    2437 posts Member
    Nihion wrote: »
    It is so sad when people who play games measure whether a community or fun or the game's health by corporate profits.

    I'm an officer in a large guild family. Turnover is worse than ever. Almost nobody is having fun. Every couple of weeks there is a new straw that broke the camel's back for another group of our members. A huge portion of people are just holding on hoping something changes soon, others are just becoming increasingly casual.

    You can't tell me that isn't the case because that is what I actually see constantly with my own two eyes.

    This tells me however much money they are making, it could be far more. I know whales that are done spending because they bought GAS and second round FTP have beat them to 7* 7 relic.

    Just to chip in, (my specialty) your max guild sample size is 50 people on a constant. I think this year is going to be better because of the slowness they are withstanding.

    Take another read.

    I'm an officer in a family of guilds that is spread out and organized around people's goals in the game and GP. My sample size is hundreds.

    LMK when I should stop believing my own constant experience and what should be obvious to everyone actively involved in this community: that CG is leaving money on the table and less and less people are finding the game actually fun.

    With all due respect, social scientist, your first post did not indicate that your sample size was larger than a guild, nor did you state real evidence or your qualifications in your first post, but you may be right. I just noticed that at first you were just a person with a statement.

    With all that said, we still have little reason to be believe that you are what you say you are or that you have the sample and data that you say you have. So far it’s mostly statements, whereas I see a graph at the top of this thread that shows a significant boost in profits in a time where less content is being produced. What that shows me is that the game itself may be dying out, but the Star Wars name is gaining a larger audience, which inspires the appeal of this game. I assume you are in a guild community with committed whales or members, and while they may be dipping down, what I can see is a wider, newer community is spending more. This would be in line with the shock hype of Mando, the Rise of Skywalker ending the saga, and the Hyperdrive bundle allowing for that increase. This is what I’m seeing, with the evidence and reasoning presented.

    You are probably a real social scientist, and you could very well be right. If you demerit the graph, or present your own evidence, I may believe you. Either way, your move.
  • Jarvind
    3244 posts Member
    Jarvind wrote: »
    I am literally a social scientist, you are talking about the method in which data is collected. In this case, I collected it over years of experience, observation, and commitment to knowing how the game is being perceived because I have made managing a guild in this game a major hobby. You are calling data anecdotal because a person collected it, rather than a person designing a collection system. At the end it is all a human collection system. Except in my case, variables examined aren't limited to "total cash spent aggregate" nor does my position posit that the measure of a community's health is whether the designers made money.

    I don't think you really understand how data works and what constitutes good data.

    If you collected data, then let's see your data. Numbers. Actual quantifiable information and not just "it's bad because I'm not enjoying it."

    Anything less makes you a liar.

    I was kind enough to explain to you, in the post you quote, if you were a good enough reader that conflating "data" and "quantification" is a pretty clear indicator that you don't know what data is or how it is used to assess reality.

    Plato's Republic is a book. I can see X trends in how people rely to Y stimulus, based on what they say. When I mix this chemical with that chemical, it smells like vanilla. If you think those kinds of measures or statements aren't data... wow... please stop speaking with a voice of authority.

    You can't convince me I don't know what I know and now that I'm not actually my own profession with some lazy smug understanding that I am literally paid to disabuse people of when I train them on how to use data and what it is.

    If you want me to go further on this I will require you to pay me, this is my trade and I don't work for free.

    If you are trying to argue most people are enjoying the game right now I feel sorry for you. I'm glad it gives you comfort that CG made a lot of money...

    What anyone with a brain read here is “I’ve been caught in a lie and will now summon up all my self-righteous hauteur to try to distract from it.”
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  • We're all dying
  • leef wrote: »
    a3a01ba.jpg
    december 2019 was the 2nd most profitable month in the last 3 years (maybe ever). Work your magic fellow forum users and explain how that is actually a bad and a clear sign that the game is dying.

    Profit does not equals to ‘fun’. Frustration still increases, lots of people leaving. Our guild almost in constant search for new good members. Old leave new very hard to find. And it does getting worse.
    So, you graph can indicate there is so much frustration some ppl want to ease it with money. But are you sure next month they spend as much? What about gameplay and fun (yes! Game are for fun, not for giving money to devs. Overwise it is just casino)

    Sincerely, your Cap
  • Could it coincide with the very popular star wars movie what was it called? episode 9?

    Maybe from the holidays and people spending extra money in that time of the year?

    Maybe the increase in revenue is from new players and old players spending more, just more players in general, plus from the health of the game improving from such flawless content releases and community interaction.

    Who knows?
  • This is exactly what Tophat was saying in the podcast. From their perspective (all of the data) the game is fine. So this goes beyond even the info that Leef provided.

    Tophat did speak a lot on sentiment and how it has to be worked on by them.

    The game is fine. I’m glad, I enjoyed playing it for 4 years so far and hope to play it for four more.

    Are there things I wish were a little easier to get, oh hell yea. G12+ gear and kyros especially. A difficulty tweak to TBs too.

    I’m sure they will all come in time. I think most moves made by the devs besides monetary incentives was to give them more time. They have repeatedly said we eat through content way too fast.
  • Hope this data means that eveyone whos quit on my ally list, and arena shard are coming back.
  • TVF
    19846 posts Member
    Mitch08 wrote: »
    Hope this data means that eveyone whos quit on my ally list, and arena shard are coming back.

    Anec Dotal
    TVF's guild is recruiting. Say hi in our Discord! https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • There was the hyperdrive bundle but more important some of these smaller packs that contained crystals, energy and small stacks of crunch gear...small sample size but in my guild where spending isn't very common a lot of people dropped a few bucks on the 3,99 to 8,99 packs (don't remember what amount they exactly were)
  • Is the graph net profit or total earning because skimping on staff and quality control can increase your margins
  • Treeburner wrote: »
    Is the graph net profit or total earning because skimping on staff and quality control can increase your margins

    Title of the graph says estimated sales and is from a 3rd party website's data (so highly doubtful they have cost data).
    Looking for a new guild? Come check out Wa Da Tah on Discord: https://discord.gg/SFYjRkk
  • Nauros
    3154 posts Member
    It would be more interesting to see how many new players come, how many leave, how long they stay and so on. Of course, there's no way to see that...
    Revive the stores, the game needs it.
  • Stenun
    588 posts Member
    Getting back to the original graph ...
    What happened in March 2018?
  • Stenun wrote: »
    Getting back to the original graph ...
    What happened in March 2018?

    RJT’s return and STR teams.
  • Treeburner
    500 posts Member
    edited January 6
    On average it looks like 2019 was the worst year.
    It's lower than 18 and 17 8 /12 months of the year
  • Amoliski
    71 posts Member
    edited January 6
    TVF wrote: »
    Mitch08 wrote: »
    Hope this data means that eveyone whos quit on my ally list, and arena shard are coming back.

    Anec Dotal

    How many people have to say "My ally list is a literal ghost town" before it becomes a step above anecdotal? Plus, just because something is anecdotal doesn't mean it's untrue.

    Add me to the pile of ex-spenders with a foot out the door (I missed a few GWs and GA signups over the last month- previously I never missed a single event or raid) with a graveyard for an ally list, a guild with player turnover more rapid than than a pet store feeder fish tank, and an arena shard with less movement than an unmarried Mennonite bedroom.
  • jfears2
    167 posts Member
    edited January 6
    BTW a long direct relationship with 300+ gamers from a position to assess the experience of those gamers is significant.

    Just a simple google search shows there are 80 millions players for SWGOH, lets say it's half that to account for people who don't play anymore, and those who have multiple accounts, or those who made account but never actually played, etc..

    That's still 40 million... that's 40,000,000 people. And that's a ridiculously generous reduction.

    Your 300+ gamers, let's be fair and call it 400 since your + is ambiguous at best.

    Your group, 400 gamers, comprises literally 0.001% of the player base, and that's giving you the benefit of the doubt by halving the reported total of overall players and inflating your group.

    So no, your group of games is not significant; 0.001% is not a reasonable sample size, and I seriously question your claim of understanding data.

    Disclaimer: I am not a data expert; but I do have a brain, a calculator, and rational thoughts.
    You can probably assume the majority of what I post is sarcasm, feel free to skip and move along rather than reading...
  • Fact of the matter is that for those of us who have been playing 3 years or so, we have seen a lot of turnover recently and we do not see the new players coming in because why would we? So we see people quitting with no frame of reference towards new players joining. So it looks like things are bleak when in reality the game is shifting it's player base, or it is slowly falling off the bridge.

    As a recruiting officer in a guild it has gotten harder and harder to find people "worthy" of a 220mil+ GP guild. That's because a lot of "end game" level players have or are quitting. That's just a fact. Call it whatever you want, but it is true. Discord servers that used to be hopping are quiet as kept now. Whales in arena shards are disappearing.

    I've been close to quitting at least five times the past year. I refuse to spend any money, especially after GAS and how the hardest, most expensive toon to get in the game then needs 72K GET1 to get to 7* even thought GET1 income has been slashed due to Geo TB. I got GAS the first time around and will finally get him to 7* this week. Meanwhile I've seen people get him the second time and beat me to it. At 6* dude gets one shot in every single GAC and TW. Loving that first unlock advantage.

    I digress, but those decisions are what are pushing older players out the door. Plain and simple.
  • I think it gets less anecdotal the more varying groups of people add their input and increase the sample size, so here's my perspective. For me, I've been willing to spend on occasion (when they still had $10 packs for marquee characters or gear bundles I could justify), but that's harder now. And once upon a time a shift in the meta felt like something I could still somewhat keep pace on. Now, I just don't chase meta, play more casually, and try to have more varied teams for TW and TB.

    I couldn't imagine what would keep me going if I had been a real whale and invested heavy for so many toons, only to feel like the rug was pulled out from under me when a newer, more expensive meta showed up right after. Or a toon was introduced that negated my investment. I have no problem with whales, as they're the ones that keep this game F2P with no ads. But judging by the forums, some whales are getting tired of it and leaving, and the barrier of entry for brand new players in this game is pretty steep by this point. It makes me wonder about the future, and if or when a real decline is coming.
  • According to the graph SWGOH grossed $152 million in both 2017 and 2018. And then saw a loss of -$23 million in 2019 for a total gross income of $129 million in 2019.
  • Gifafi
    2982 posts Member
    Fact of the matter is that for those of us who have been playing 3 years or so, we have seen a lot of turnover recently and we do not see the new players coming in because why would we? So we see people quitting with no frame of reference towards new players joining. So it looks like things are bleak when in reality the game is shifting it's player base, or it is slowly falling off the bridge.

    As a recruiting officer in a guild it has gotten harder and harder to find people "worthy" of a 220mil+ GP guild. That's because a lot of "end game" level players have or are quitting. That's just a fact. Call it whatever you want, but it is true. Discord servers that used to be hopping are quiet as kept now. Whales in arena shards are disappearing.

    I've been close to quitting at least five times the past year. I refuse to spend any money, especially after GAS and how the hardest, most expensive toon to get in the game then needs 72K GET1 to get to 7* even thought GET1 income has been slashed due to Geo TB. I got GAS the first time around and will finally get him to 7* this week. Meanwhile I've seen people get him the second time and beat me to it. At 6* dude gets one shot in every single GAC and TW. Loving that first unlock advantage.

    I digress, but those decisions are what are pushing older players out the door. Plain and simple.

    how could someone who unlocked him after you get him before you? I agree that recruiting has become harder in the 220m range.
    gatormatt wrote: »
    According to the graph SWGOH grossed $152 million in both 2017 and 2018. And then saw a loss of -$23 million in 2019 for a total gross income of $129 million in 2019.

    um, what?
  • Gifafi wrote: »
    gatormatt wrote: »
    According to the graph SWGOH grossed $152 million in both 2017 and 2018. And then saw a loss of -$23 million in 2019 for a total gross income of $129 million in 2019.

    um, what?

    It was a bad way of saying they made less money in 2019 than the previous two years.
    Looking for a new guild? Come check out Wa Da Tah on Discord: https://discord.gg/SFYjRkk
  • gatormatt wrote: »
    According to the graph SWGOH grossed $152 million in both 2017 and 2018. And then saw a loss of -$23 million in 2019 for a total gross income of $129 million in 2019.

    @leef I'm not here to take sides but if you are going to use a graph to prove that income for SWGOH is not dropping, do not use one that proves otherwise.
    20% drop in profits is quite big but nothing compared to how many people didn't realise that the graph showed 2019 as the worst year for gross earning December blinded you lol.
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