How long do you think this game will live?
I know it's been out for less than a month, but the potential is really huge. I mean, we don't even know all the upcoming features (inactive options in the main menu), and with new Star Wars films to be released every year from now on, the number of possibilities is incredible. It is a question of whether EA and CG have the intention of the game lasting for so long, or replacing it with some other title (or a sequel maybe). There are still many flaws but I've been playing since October and love it so far. Really hope it to last and improve constantly. Overall, it's cheaper to enhance something that's good then make something new, out of the black.
Arena here is kind of a joke, an afterthought if you will.... thankfully devs have hinted an overhaul.
No chat and guilds are major detriments as well. And let's not forget the money making model. Summoners, employ a model that does not guarantee you anything really. No "special $99.95" packs that out of the bat give you huge advantage over the majority of playerbase. all these affect longevity.
If i have to grade longevity of this game at the moment it's prolly C+
But if I were a F2P I'd be happy. So I can certainly understand you F2Ps. hitting the cap so fast just made tou all F2Ps right in my eyes.
Yep, and they are still releasing characters two years later. I can wait until they unleash all the characters that they are creating.
And When They get the goal they immediatly change their mind..
At the moment Many people have the 60 goal now and Many begin to get borred ..
So , no updatz soon, Many people Will Leave .
Trust me i'm a développer .and the rule of a compagnie is not to let people Leave ......
I disagree. I'm not level 60 yet and don't consider myself selfish towards this game. I can understand level 60 players finding the daily grind for shards/gear becoming duller without also being able to level your character.
Trust me, I'm a professional.
Kinda like the big computer companies, the technology exists years ahead of what is available but they only give it out to the public in small increments to keep the constant flow of money coming in. I'd bet leveling up won't be what changes to keep money coming in, it will be major changes to the type of battles.
But that's just my opinion.
Lol, so true. Also, remember this is Disney not just EA. Disney has said "they will make Star Wars content until it doesn't make money". If you need more convincing look at Hasbro. They have been making Star Wars toy since the late 90's. I remember when they started making the new action figures ppl went nuts.
this can all change with the addition of new content (due to movie releases) so we are almost guaranteed 2+ years of play through new content/character updates alone.
now, these were real games though... this is something tailored for "generation selfie" with maybe a 0.5% of "real" content of any of the games you listed.
Regarding the game, it will not die even if nothing is done for a while. but the impact on the developers well being, wealth an EA and Disney stock can be easily assessed.
The two primary values are user churn and average monthly spend.
Average monthly spend
I will just say without any updates, old players will see little reason to sustain a high level of initial spend? Why? I won't refresh energy much if it won't give me a large advantage. And as I am capped after a month, new spend will be the same. But let's assume thise that spent $1000 first month, or $10, etc. continue at the same rate (which won't happen if there's a cap, but anyway...).
Let's just assume that 25% of players get fed up and quit the game each nee month that pases. The churn is 25% of players every month. Assume 10,000 players download and get hooked every month. After one month, 25% leave as they get bored, but another new players join 10,000. You now have 17,500 players.
Continue that exercise for 36 months, and your player base will reach 30,050 players more or less.
If you can change the number of players leaving to 10%, the total players will now be 86,900.
If you keep 95% of your users every month, a 5% churn, the by year 3 total player base will be 153,000.
Let's say average spent per month is $10 per player. Now let's see a table:
Churn 5%: 153,000 x $5 = $1.53 millions/mo
Churn 10%: 86,900 x $5 = $0.87 millions/mo
Churn 25%: 30,050 x $5 = $0.30 millions/mo
Which one would you rather have? Now, the reality is that you also have average revenue per user(ARPU) rapidly declining when new content stalls. And just adding chars isn't new content just as only new cars in Real Racing can't sustain ARPU. You need new challenges, new reasons for grinding, new objectives, new reasons to refresh lots of Crystals.
If you do the exercise the SAME math applies to ARPU. Each minth, all players reduce their spend a %. We can call it the ARPU REDUCTION speed. And the outcome is at 5% reduction monthy revenue and 5% churn ... close to $750k/mo. At 25% reduction, it's $35k/mo.
By now, the difference of having 5% quit every month, and those that stay spending 5% less vs the case of 25% departures and 25% reduction in spend their montly spend, is the difference from $10m a year revenue vs less than $0.4m.
While this example is theoretical, I wanted to share some example of why games stagnate and die when content slows down, or the game stops being a monthly addiction. With caps, I have no hurry. I will spend maybe $10 instead of the $250 I may have spent, and may quit playing after 3 month realizing The remaining grind is not rewarding enough for the pleasure of ranking low, **** those few still hooked enough to have maxed out everything, free or paid, that I'd play against the day I give it another chance. And I won't be spending Chromes either. This scenario is close to a 10% Churn rate with maybe an 80% ARPU reduction. You do the math for 3 years effect, and cry "who stole EA's cheese?"...
Lack of content and player progress costs fortunes.
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