Drop rate of shards

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In the past 3 days I have simmed at least 10 battles in cantina and have received only 2 shards. Simmed 10 battles in ships after spending Crystal's to refresh and received 2 shards. Has the drop rate been nerfed? Anyone else having this problem

Replies

  • Bad RNG my friend.
  • Just RNG: 10 Battles is a very small sample size. You have a 20% chance of only getting 2 shards in 10 trails at a 33% drop rate.
    Do or Do not.

    DarthBarron (Kevin, aka KevWalker)
  • Just RNG: 10 Battles is a very small sample size. You have a 20% chance of only getting 2 shards in 10 trails at a 33% drop rate.

    And also a 9% chance of 1 shard and 2% chance of 0 shards. So over 30% chance of 2 or fewer shards.

    Since OP actually reported 4/20, it is about a 15% chance to get 4 or fewer shards in 20 sims. Unlucky, but common enough that it'll happen about once per week.
  • Vendi1983
    5023 posts Member
    edited February 2020
    I go 1 or 2 for 10 frequently on mass-Cantina Sims. But I also get 4 or 5 at about the same frequency. Those aren't as memorable because they fit what you want to see: more shards = faster farm. Funny enough it works out in the long run. I have a few concurrent farms going on LS/DS/Fleet that were all started pretty much same-day and they're only about 5 shards apart in the final 50 to go.
  • Love these threads! This one ticks some of the usual boxes.
  • I find that simming 7 battles while standing naked in the rain singing air supply normally gets me 5 or 6 of 7...
    Do or Do not.

    DarthBarron (Kevin, aka KevWalker)
  • I find that simming 7 battles while standing naked in the rain singing air supply normally gets me 5 or 6 of 7...

    7 at a time? Noob.

    Everyone knows it’s 3, then 2, Then fight an arena battle (unless your rank is a Mersenne prime), then 1, then 4, then pull a bronzium, then 5, then manually fight a challenge...
  • All those ppl who make fun of op can you answer me why on low energy cost drop rates are great and on 20 nodes are atrocious if the drop rates are the same?After almost 1,5 year i see it every single day,so energy spend is large on my part.
  • TVF
    36591 posts Member
    All those ppl who make fun of op can you answer me why on low energy cost drop rates are great and on 20 nodes are atrocious if the drop rates are the same?After almost 1,5 year i see it every single day,so energy spend is large on my part.

    Data please.
    I need a new message here. https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • All those ppl who make fun of op can you answer me why on low energy cost drop rates are great and on 20 nodes are atrocious if the drop rates are the same?After almost 1,5 year i see it every single day,so energy spend is large on my part.

    the answer is that players have tracked data, collected it, and analyzed it and determined the drop rates for all shards.

    So where is your data?
    Looking for a new guild? Come check out the Underworld Alliance on Discord:https://discord.gg/wvrYb4Q
  • All those ppl who make fun of op can you answer me why on low energy cost drop rates are great and on 20 nodes are atrocious if the drop rates are the same?After almost 1,5 year i see it every single day,so energy spend is large on my part.
    I can answer it in one simple sentence, comprising solely 3 words.

    Show your data.

    All drop rate conspiracy posts meet the same criteria. Vague, unsubstantiated data or precise but minutely small data.
  • All those ppl who make fun of op can you answer me why on low energy cost drop rates are great and on 20 nodes are atrocious if the drop rates are the same?

    Because they are. You just notice the bad days more because that's how human brains are wired.
    u58t4vkrvnrz.png



  • TVF
    36591 posts Member
    All those ppl who make fun of op can you answer me why on low energy cost drop rates are great and on 20 nodes are atrocious if the drop rates are the same?After almost 1,5 year i see it every single day,so energy spend is large on my part.
    I can answer it in one simple sentence, comprising solely 3 words.

    Show your data.

    I said it in two!

    And only needed the second word because I'm very polite.
    I need a new message here. https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • TVF wrote: »
    All those ppl who make fun of op can you answer me why on low energy cost drop rates are great and on 20 nodes are atrocious if the drop rates are the same?After almost 1,5 year i see it every single day,so energy spend is large on my part.
    I can answer it in one simple sentence, comprising solely 3 words.

    Show your data.

    I said it in two!

    And only needed the second word because I'm very polite.
    Jury’s out on whether or not the one word version would qualify as a sentence...
  • I 20 simmed and got 0 the other day i was so ****
  • I got 5/5 on urrorror the other day. Think that’s cg telling me that he’s not needed for any galactic legend events in the future
  • Jury’s out on whether or not the one word version would qualify as a sentence...

    Is it a complete sentence even with both?
  • You want Data ?!?!?!?!?!

    I've got your Data!!!!

    6 Months of Data, nearly 20K sims.

    Its not exciting, I just really like sharing.

    7i290samj3io.png


  • @Schwartzring me likey. However; I gotta ask: Why almost 30 extra shards for Ordo 60+ for Vet Chewie?
  • Wild how even with as few as 50 sims you get pretty close to the actual rate.
    u58t4vkrvnrz.png



  • I just try to move on to something else in the game and not dwell on those days when you get those tragic drops.

    Shard counting is one of the most painful aspects of the game and the less you focus on it the better.

    But yeah, shard drops are the worst.
  • You want Data ?!?!?!?!?!

    I've got your Data!!!!

    6 Months of Data, nearly 20K sims.

    Its not exciting, I just really like sharing.

    7i290samj3io.png


    Ebon Hawk drop rates nerfed - confirmed!
  • Wait....B-wing?
  • TVF
    36591 posts Member
    edited February 2020
    Oh wait, you know?

    Control this is Delphar Seven, my mission is in jeopardy. Destroy the planet! Repeat, destroy the planet!
    Post edited by TVF on
    I need a new message here. https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • Vendi1983 wrote: »
    @Schwartzring me likey. However; I gotta ask: Why almost 30 extra shards for Ordo 60+ for Vet Chewie?

    I also add in a friend's data when I have access to it.
    Bigger Sample Size & all.
  • Vendi1983 wrote: »
    Wait....B-wing?

    DOH, thanks for catching that, that is the Y-WING, probably started to type the BTL & then just cut it off.

  • All those ppl who make fun of op can you answer me why on low energy cost drop rates are great and on 20 nodes are atrocious if the drop rates are the same?After almost 1,5 year i see it every single day,so energy spend is large on my part.

    It’s because of confirmation bias. One, you notice more when bad RNG happens. Two, high energy modes mean less shards per day because of high energy. If you’re farming something that costs 10 per sim compared to 20 per sim, you’re going to net (about) double the shards for the 10 energy node. 1 refresh a 120 energy would bean 12 sims, compared to 6 sims. Unless you’re specifically simming each node the same amount of times per day, that’s why it seems like you get more. I felt like farming KRU was lightning fast compared to farming Brood Alpha for the same reason.
  • All those ppl who make fun of op can you answer me why on low energy cost drop rates are great and on 20 nodes are atrocious if the drop rates are the same?After almost 1,5 year i see it every single day,so energy spend is large on my part.

    It’s because of confirmation bias. One, you notice more when bad RNG happens. Two, high energy modes mean less shards per day because of high energy. If you’re farming something that costs 10 per sim compared to 20 per sim, you’re going to net (about) double the shards for the 10 energy node. 1 refresh a 120 energy would bean 12 sims, compared to 6 sims. Unless you’re specifically simming each node the same amount of times per day, that’s why it seems like you get more. I felt like farming KRU was lightning fast compared to farming Brood Alpha for the same reason.

    Well thats for cantina only,for other nodes you only have 5 per day,i dont refresh the nodes.


    For the other replies i got,should i care about other ppl drop rates?Will if you care if everyone around you win the lottery but you dont?I want a system that all win the lottery.In other games i play you are guaranteed 1/5 shards,but 0 is utter trash,i could live with that change.

    Also who runs the metaverse,for all i know its like metacritic where Companies pay for to have good reviews.All claiming data you claim to have isnt less valid than my own in my eyes.You think you would care for my data even if i kept them for 1,5 year almost i am playing?You woudnt give a rats ****,so stop giving that excuse,couse you only harm ppls concerns and CG is laughing at all of us.
  • https://patents.justia.com/patent/10307666

    Go and read this and tell me if its not happening,the tech and knowledge is out allready since who knows when,since you like data,maybe some facts could help of whats possible.
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