Cara shards

Nasdadjr

I don't know if this is a major anomaly, but I have run 60 sims on the Cara node this week. I have gotten one shard. The odds of that are worse than winning the lottery. CG please look in to this. There is no reason why someone spending resources on energy and crystals should get 1 shard in 60 simulations.

TheJEFFtm

Just a really unfortunate string of RNG... that is all.

I’ve run 240 sims since release and gotten 85 shards (5 ahead of expected average), Mando and Greef are 82/240 and 81/240 respectively.

Hope it turns around and averages out for you!

MasterSeedy

The odds are about 1.5 in 10 million, which is better odds than the lottery, but the odds are of the same order of magnitude, and your point is taken.

That said, I seem to be getting slightly-worse-than-expected but definitely in the ballpark results. Unless you, personally, have had your account hacked or something, the evidence of your previous commenter's experience and my own weigh heavily in favor of this simply being really, really bad luck. Out of all the people doing all the trials - which has to be a few hundred thousand people - the odds of a 1.5 -in- 10M event are more like 1-in-100.

Since there are getting close to 200 characters now, this kind of thing was bound to happen to someone. It really, really sucks to be you, and it's not a bad idea to ask CG to check and see if you've somehow been hacked (if they're willing), but the people with the worst luck have motivation to post here, so I'm gonna go with bad luck as the most probable explanation until there is evidence of hacking.

Certainly it's not a game-wide problem.

Nasdadjr

But is that a coding issue that needs a working? I feel a full week of resources have been wasted for 1 shard. How can that happen under any circumstances assuming a 30% drop rate?

Potato211

TheJEFFtm wrote: »

Just a really unfortunate string of RNG... that is all.

I’ve run 240 sims since release and gotten 85 shards (5 ahead of expected average), Mando and Greef are 82/240 and 81/240 respectively.

Hope it turns around and averages out for you!

What do you use to make the math for that estimate?

Nasdadjr wrote: »

But is that a coding issue that needs a working? I feel a full week of resources have been wasted for 1 shard. How can that happen under any circumstances assuming a 30% drop rate?

Nope. Just how these kind of games work.

DarjeloSalas

33% is what he used, which is the observed drop rate.

33% is equivalent to one third, so he worked out one third of 240 = 80.

DarjeloSalas

Greef: 50/160 (31.25%)
Cara: 54/160 (33.75%)
Mando: 55/160 (34.375%)

They look fine to me...

Lysandrax

Nasdadjr wrote: »

I don't know if this is a major anomaly, but I have run 60 sims on the Cara node this week. I have gotten one shard. The odds of that are worse than winning the lottery. CG please look in to this. There is no reason why someone spending resources on energy and crystals should get 1 shard in 60 simulations.

Plz delete lie

DarjeloSalas

Nasdadjr wrote: »

I don't know if this is a major anomaly, but I have run 60 sims on the Cara node this week. I have gotten one shard. The odds of that are worse than winning the lottery. CG please look in to this. There is no reason why someone spending resources on energy and crystals should get 1 shard in 60 simulations.

There are only 3 possible conclusions from this:

1) you’re mistaken about only getting 1 shard
2) you haven’t done 60 sims
3) you have done 60 sims, but haven’t always simmed the correct node

LendersQuiz

I started farming Mando, Greef & Cara the day they became farmable. I've done 5 attempts per day since, no more, no less. The drop rate for all three is suppose to be the same. Here are my results.

Statistically speaking, looks good so far. I've had a little bit less luck with Mando, but I fully expect all three to reach 7 stars more or less at the same time.

NicWester

DarjeloSalas wrote: »

Nasdadjr wrote: »

I don't know if this is a major anomaly, but I have run 60 sims on the Cara node this week. I have gotten one shard. The odds of that are worse than winning the lottery. CG please look in to this. There is no reason why someone spending resources on energy and crystals should get 1 shard in 60 simulations.

There are only 3 possible conclusions from this:

1) you’re mistaken about only getting 1 shard
2) you haven’t done 60 sims
3) you have done 60 sims, but haven’t always simmed the correct node

There's a fourth conclusion--they really did 60 sims and really did get 1 shard because their luck was just that bad. The odds are better than winning the lottery, and people win the lottery all the time...

Waqui

DarjeloSalas wrote: »

Nasdadjr wrote: »

I don't know if this is a major anomaly, but I have run 60 sims on the Cara node this week. I have gotten one shard. The odds of that are worse than winning the lottery. CG please look in to this. There is no reason why someone spending resources on energy and crystals should get 1 shard in 60 simulations.

There are only 3 possible conclusions from this:

1) you’re mistaken about only getting 1 shard
2) you haven’t done 60 sims
3) you have done 60 sims, but haven’t always simmed the correct node

There actually is a 4th possibility:

4) OP got 1 shard for 60 sims.

Yes, it's highly unlikely to happen, but not impossible.

@Nasdadjr Did you track all your attempts and drops? What are the exact results?

NicWester

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem

It's not quite the thing going on here, but it applies still. The odds of this happening to me is 1.5 in 10,000,000. The odds of it happening to you is 1.5 in 10,000,000. The odds of it happening to your OR me is greater than 1.5 in 10,000,000. For every person that you add to the pool of people to whom it can happen, you greatly increase the odds that it will happen to ONE person in that group.

Lysandrax

It still didnt happen.

DarjeloSalas

Waqui wrote: »

DarjeloSalas wrote: »

Nasdadjr wrote: »

I don't know if this is a major anomaly, but I have run 60 sims on the Cara node this week. I have gotten one shard. The odds of that are worse than winning the lottery. CG please look in to this. There is no reason why someone spending resources on energy and crystals should get 1 shard in 60 simulations.

There are only 3 possible conclusions from this:

1) you’re mistaken about only getting 1 shard
2) you haven’t done 60 sims
3) you have done 60 sims, but haven’t always simmed the correct node

There actually is a 4th possibility:

4) OP got 1 shard for 60 sims.

Yes, it's highly unlikely to happen, but not impossible.

@Nasdadjr Did you track all your attempts and drops? What are the exact results?

I dismissed that possibility as an outlier.

Vi1teran_

DarjeloSalas wrote: »

Waqui wrote: »

DarjeloSalas wrote: »

Nasdadjr wrote: »

I don't know if this is a major anomaly, but I have run 60 sims on the Cara node this week. I have gotten one shard. The odds of that are worse than winning the lottery. CG please look in to this. There is no reason why someone spending resources on energy and crystals should get 1 shard in 60 simulations.

There are only 3 possible conclusions from this:

1) you’re mistaken about only getting 1 shard
2) you haven’t done 60 sims
3) you have done 60 sims, but haven’t always simmed the correct node

There actually is a 4th possibility:

4) OP got 1 shard for 60 sims.

Yes, it's highly unlikely to happen, but not impossible.

@Nasdadjr Did you track all your attempts and drops? What are the exact results?

I dismissed that possibility as an outlier.

So you just dismissed what the person said because...

TVF

Vi1teran_ wrote: »

DarjeloSalas wrote: »

Waqui wrote: »

DarjeloSalas wrote: »

Nasdadjr wrote: »

I don't know if this is a major anomaly, but I have run 60 sims on the Cara node this week. I have gotten one shard. The odds of that are worse than winning the lottery. CG please look in to this. There is no reason why someone spending resources on energy and crystals should get 1 shard in 60 simulations.

There are only 3 possible conclusions from this:

1) you’re mistaken about only getting 1 shard
2) you haven’t done 60 sims
3) you have done 60 sims, but haven’t always simmed the correct node

There actually is a 4th possibility:

4) OP got 1 shard for 60 sims.

Yes, it's highly unlikely to happen, but not impossible.

@Nasdadjr Did you track all your attempts and drops? What are the exact results?

I dismissed that possibility as an outlier.

So you just dismissed what the person said because...

Because the odds of the person being incorrect (remembering wrong, or other reasons) are almost 100%.

DarjeloSalas

Vi1teran_ wrote: »

DarjeloSalas wrote: »

Waqui wrote: »

DarjeloSalas wrote: »

Nasdadjr wrote: »

I don't know if this is a major anomaly, but I have run 60 sims on the Cara node this week. I have gotten one shard. The odds of that are worse than winning the lottery. CG please look in to this. There is no reason why someone spending resources on energy and crystals should get 1 shard in 60 simulations.

There are only 3 possible conclusions from this:

1) you’re mistaken about only getting 1 shard
2) you haven’t done 60 sims
3) you have done 60 sims, but haven’t always simmed the correct node

There actually is a 4th possibility:

4) OP got 1 shard for 60 sims.

Yes, it's highly unlikely to happen, but not impossible.

@Nasdadjr Did you track all your attempts and drops? What are the exact results?

I dismissed that possibility as an outlier.

So you just dismissed what the person said because...

Because the odds of it having happened are so vanishingly small that he simply must be mistaken in either the 1, the 60 or both.

Vi1teran_

TVF wrote: »

Vi1teran_ wrote: »

DarjeloSalas wrote: »

Waqui wrote: »

DarjeloSalas wrote: »

Nasdadjr wrote: »

I don't know if this is a major anomaly, but I have run 60 sims on the Cara node this week. I have gotten one shard. The odds of that are worse than winning the lottery. CG please look in to this. There is no reason why someone spending resources on energy and crystals should get 1 shard in 60 simulations.

There are only 3 possible conclusions from this:

1) you’re mistaken about only getting 1 shard
2) you haven’t done 60 sims
3) you have done 60 sims, but haven’t always simmed the correct node

There actually is a 4th possibility:

4) OP got 1 shard for 60 sims.

Yes, it's highly unlikely to happen, but not impossible.

@Nasdadjr Did you track all your attempts and drops? What are the exact results?

I dismissed that possibility as an outlier.

So you just dismissed what the person said because...

Because the odds of the person being incorrect (remembering wrong, or other reasons) are almost 100%.

I would agree with that if the person hadn't already pointed out they realized that or it was the usual questioning CG's integrity.

Waqui

DarjeloSalas wrote: »

Waqui wrote: »

DarjeloSalas wrote: »

Nasdadjr wrote: »

I don't know if this is a major anomaly, but I have run 60 sims on the Cara node this week. I have gotten one shard. The odds of that are worse than winning the lottery. CG please look in to this. There is no reason why someone spending resources on energy and crystals should get 1 shard in 60 simulations.

There are only 3 possible conclusions from this:

1) you’re mistaken about only getting 1 shard
2) you haven’t done 60 sims
3) you have done 60 sims, but haven’t always simmed the correct node

There actually is a 4th possibility:

4) OP got 1 shard for 60 sims.

Yes, it's highly unlikely to happen, but not impossible.

@Nasdadjr Did you track all your attempts and drops? What are the exact results?

I dismissed that possibility as an outlier.

I'm glad we agree that there's this 4th possibility as well - and not only the 3 you listed.

Vi1teran_

DarjeloSalas wrote: »

Vi1teran_ wrote: »

DarjeloSalas wrote: »

Waqui wrote: »

DarjeloSalas wrote: »

Nasdadjr wrote: »

I don't know if this is a major anomaly, but I have run 60 sims on the Cara node this week. I have gotten one shard. The odds of that are worse than winning the lottery. CG please look in to this. There is no reason why someone spending resources on energy and crystals should get 1 shard in 60 simulations.

There are only 3 possible conclusions from this:

1) you’re mistaken about only getting 1 shard
2) you haven’t done 60 sims
3) you have done 60 sims, but haven’t always simmed the correct node

There actually is a 4th possibility:

4) OP got 1 shard for 60 sims.

Yes, it's highly unlikely to happen, but not impossible.

@Nasdadjr Did you track all your attempts and drops? What are the exact results?

I dismissed that possibility as an outlier.

So you just dismissed what the person said because...

Because the odds of it having happened are so vanishingly small that he simply must be mistaken in either the 1, the 60 or both.

But not impossible. I've tracked 47 characters and ships from 6-7 star. 41 fell between 30-35%(as expected), 1 was just under 37%, 5 were between 27 and 28%(interestingly 4 of those 5 were on 2 nodes) and one was just over 22%. Currently my CHS farm is 47/247 and I recently had a 3/50 on Juhani. If one of my bad runs was on a fresh node I'd question it to be sure others weren't having the same issues.

Gifafi

there have def been times where I feel like I've gone 1/60.

Vi1teran_

Gifafi wrote: »

there have def been times where I feel like I've gone 1/60.

I've definitely gone 1/60 on gear.

TVF

I don't even remember feeling like I went 3/50.

Gifafi

TVF wrote: »

I don't even remember feeling like I went 3/50.

how can you feel anything with your spreadsheets and facts and data???

TVF

Gifafi wrote: »

TVF wrote: »

I don't even remember feeling like I went 3/50.

how can you feel anything with your spreadsheets and facts and data???

I can't feel anything. Completely numb.

But only when I'm here.

Lysandrax

I have personally been into outer space.

I will provide no evidence to this nor should i have to, regardless of how likely it is i am being disingenuous.

Just believe me bro, 1/60 shards bro...

TVF

Vi1teran_ wrote: »

Gifafi wrote: »

there have def been times where I feel like I've gone 1/60.

I've definitely gone 1/60 on gear.

I've definitely gone 59/60 on gear.

Vi1teran_

TVF wrote: »

Vi1teran_ wrote: »

Gifafi wrote: »

there have def been times where I feel like I've gone 1/60.

I've definitely gone 1/60 on gear.

I've definitely gone 59/60 on gear.

Lucky you. Guess the game likes you more.

Gifafi

Vi1teran_ wrote: »

TVF wrote: »

Vi1teran_ wrote: »

Gifafi wrote: »

there have def been times where I feel like I've gone 1/60.

I've definitely gone 1/60 on gear.

I've definitely gone 59/60 on gear.

Lucky you. Guess the game likes you more.

you have to shill harder