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## Replies

And the idea that you either focus on GAC or ignore it completely is just silly. You can do just fine balancing GAC with your other goals but you do need to actually give it some thought.

Me? I’m doing pretty well ever since I started paying attention to roster bloat etc. I guess gitting gud IS the answer. I used to hate gac bc I always lost, now I just don’t like it bc I think it’s too much work for too little reward.

What are ways to plug these glaring holes, iyo?

What are these other priorities that are messing up gac for people?

Rtt: man I hate the spam filter

A group not having a GL would require all 8 players to not have a GL. If 20% of people have a GL then the odds of a group not having a GL can be easily calculated.

First off before you respond to tell me I'm wrong again you should Google Bernoulli Trial. It's a real thing. In the theory of probability and statistics, a Bernoulli trial (or binomial trial) is a random experiment with exactly two possible outcomes, "success" and "failure", (fighting a GL or not fighting a GL) in which the probability of success is the same every time the experiment is conducted.

It is named after Jacob Bernoulli, a 17th-century Swiss mathematician, yes unbelievable humans have known how to calculate probability for hundreds of years but recently with the internet people are less inclined to do any research. Some people just discredit others in public even while they know they lack the mental capacity to calculate a probability themselves, their will to tell others that others are wrong is greater.

The mathematical formalisation of the Bernoulli trial is known as the Bernoulli process. Since a Bernoulli trial has only two possible outcomes, it can be framed as some "yes or no" question. For example:

Is the top card of a shuffled deck an ace?

Was the newborn child a girl?

Did the player face a roster with a GL?

Therefore, success and failure are merely labels for the two outcomes, and should not be construed literally. The term "success" in this sense consists in the result meeting specified conditions, not in any moral judgement. More generally, given any probability space, for any event (set of outcomes), one can define a Bernoulli trial, corresponding to whether the event occurred or not (event or complementary event). DO YOU UNDERSTAND WHAT THAT MEANS?

Examples of Bernoulli trials include:

Flipping a coin. In this context, obverse ("heads") conventionally denotes success and reverse ("tails") denotes failure. A fair coin has the probability of success 0.5 by definition. In this case there are exactly two possible outcomes.

Probability of heads = 0.5

Probability of not heads = 1-0.5

Rolling a die, where a six is "success" and everything else a "failure". In this case there are six possible outcomes, and the event is a six; the complementary event "not a six" corresponds to the other five possible outcomes.

Probability of six = 1/6 or 0.1667

Probability of not six = 1-(5/6) or 0.833

In predicting a SWGOH event, choosing a roster at random to ascertain whether that roster will contain a GL.

Kyno said 20% of players have a GL so...

Probability of a roster having a GL is 1/5 or 0.2

Probability of roster not having a GL is 1-1/5 or 0.8

Pick any one random ally code to fight the odds are 80/20. Most people understand this much, however repeating the experiment isn't too hard.

Pick 2 opponents at random now the outcomes are

Neither has a GL (80%*80%)=64%

First opponent has GL (20%*80%)=16%

second opponent has GL (80%*20%)=16%

Both opponents have GL (20%*20%)=4%

To proof this 64%+16%+16%+4=100% (all possible outcomes)

You can take it one more level to simulate a 3 round GA.

None of 3 opponents had a GL (80%*80%*80%)=51.2%

1st opponent had GL (20%*80%*80%)=12.8%

2nd opponent had GL (80%*20%*80%)=12.8%

3rd opponent had GL (80%*80%*20%)=12.8%

1st and 2nd had GL (20%*20%*80%)=3.2%

2nd and 3rd had GL (80%*20%*20%)=3.2%

1st and 3rd had a GL (20%*80%*20%)=3.2%

All 3 opponents had GL (20%*20%*20%)=.8%

Check it 51.2+12.8+12.8+12.8+3.2+3.2+3.2+.8=100% of possible outcomes.

The Bernoulli trial is designed to calculate the probability of a given even occurring over multiple attempts, in this case the event is does my opponent have a GL and the formula to calculate this is the probability of the outcome raised to the power of the number of attempts.

Flipping a coin 12 times? The odds of not getting heads once is 50%^12 or 0.024%

Fighting a 12 Opponents? The odds of not facing a GL once is 80%^12 or 6.9% that means that everyone else 93.1% of people will fight against at least 1 GL.

Kyno you do bring up a good point that not all GA have GL in them such as in some gp levels like division 10 there is no GL so the math is simple you have a 0% chance at facing one within that division. At higher divisions the odds of someone having a GL is more than 20% if 20% is a game wide statistic some divisions will be higher than 20% since 20 is the average across the whole game. For example if 30% of people in division 1 and 2 have a GL and 70% dont then the odds of someone playing a whole gac and not facing a GL in division 1 or 2 would be 70%^12 =1.4% meaning you are 98.6% certain to fight against at least 1 GL in GAC in division 1 or 2. The point is that the unequal distribution of GL actually increases the chances that people face a GL at higher divisions while lower divisions there is no GL at all so yes you are correct some people have no shot and others are almost guaranteed to face a GL.

IN CONCLUSION it's reasonable to BELIEVE 90% of people aka 9 out of 10 people will face at least 1 GL, possibly several GL in a GAC. Facing an unbeatable team that can eat up a whole roster is not as fun as being able to counter each team you face and seeing who can counter who most efficiently. This efficient countering of enemy rosters was what many many players made GAC their favorite game mode. even GL vs GL is poor because they often prevent each other from making kyber by limiting points scored on both sides.

Finally its really sad that I have to post such a long post to defend my true statements against your doubt. As a moderator you should moderate not cast doubt on people claims when you clearly don't know much about math or probabilities in the first place.

Whether or not 20% of people have a GL is debatable (a simple check of swgoh.gg should make clear that it is much much less than that, but with the internet these days people are less inclined to do any research).

But the big mistake you’re making is assuming that it is totally random who does and does not get matched in a group that has or does not have a GL.

This is not random. There are people who are guaranteed to be drawn with other GLs every single time, and people who are guaranteed to not draw a GL every single time. I now have both Rey and Kylo, and have had throughout the current GAC. I have seen exactly one opponent out of the 28 in my groups that had neither GL. 9 of the 28 had both, like me. The rest had one. There is no Bernoulli trial at play here. My matchmaking GP is the reason this happens.

There’s a small group of people where they might or might not get drawn with any GLs. Even then I’d dispute that whether or not they get drawn in a group with one or more GLs is not an entirely random event.

1 opponent out of 28 didn't have a GL and high gp. You argue with me and Mark of points but your statement proves my work to be true. You have almost a 100% chance at fighting a GL because as gp goes up the odds of seeing a GL increase. So your definitely part of the 93% of people who fight against at least 1 GL in a GAC. I was initially refuting Kyno disregarding the OP saying 90/10 would be a bad ratio because 90% of people don't even fight vs a GL.

You would have to be a fool if u didn't think there was a range of players who don't have a GL that also face people with a GL. Your basically saying OP and many other players don't exist.

The longer 2020 goes on the more ridiculous and irrational people get, it's become very amusing.

This is the post I'm referring to, so if 20% was incorrect I got my data from the official forum moderator. If he is posting bad incorrect information like mistaking the percent of people with a GL ridicule him, not me.

I did in no way say those were official numbers.

Absolutely nowhere in my post did I deny that people who don’t have a GL sometimes get drawn against someone with a GL. So, you can withdraw your implication that I’m a fool.

You still haven’t addressed the key issue. Even if it were 20% who owned a GL, it is not appropriate to use that as a probability that one person will meet another with or without a GL. It’s not random. The way you’re basing your Maths, I have the same chance as facing a GL owner as anyone else, which just isn’t the case.

There are players who will almost always face a GL, players who will almost never face a GL and of course players who sometimes will and sometimes won’t.

I’m sure there’s a %age for each of those, but Bernoulli won’t help you find it.

We can at least get off some real numbers though.

Rey 12783

Supreme Leader Kylo Ren 11522

24305 g13 gls in total out of 374550 accounts on swgoh.gg

That's %6.4 of swgoh.gg portion of the playerbase. This demographic is pretty skewed as more competetive players would be there with high ratio, while more casuals may not care. The real percentage of owning a gl on entire playerbase should be somewhat lower.

Now back to discussing how bad a threat this %6.4 is to non gl owners.

Or can they

they get beaten every day.

Now that's some rubbish about being unbeatable. It isn't easy, but not impossible either. But I feel you about having that kind of power. I finally hunkered down and got my GAS maxed out and seeing him put up numbers like he does makes all my previous "biggest" hitters" look like a team of tuskens.(apologize to you tuskens lovers out there)

I said I got the number from the official moderator, not that the number was official itself.

If you just made it that's an entirely different situation. But if gaffifi is gonna jump on my case for using the number u communicated in an example then he should redirect his anger at you for saying 20% without doing any research.

I shouldn't have to research and ensure what someone says is correct before responding to it but there's different rules for different people... Kinda like cheating I get it.

Ya, I can't kill them yet, but in TW enemy guilds are putting walls with a bunch of GLs, and I think our guild leader calls CG and asks them to knock down the wall. That's the most plausible way I can think those walls disappear.

You mispelled Giraffe.

This math assume that GLs are evenly distributed which is severely egregious. Your math will be the total average of everyone and thus include people who both You need to look at a subset of data that is limited to the possiblity in the first place. A starting point would be number of R3+ characters. Take all the people who have 11 R3+ characters because that is more realistic. Still then the likelihood of seeing a GL increases with the number of R3+ characters. If someone has 40 R3+, they are notably more likely to see a GL than someone with just 11. Your math assumes all things are equal. Things are not equal and therefore can only show the theoretical average.

you don't see that the 20% number is irrelevant to the problem with your post?

The point is that even a small percent of people with a certain character can result in a much much larger percentage of players facing that character over the course of 12 matches.

People are acting like if you have a GL YOU only fight other GLs and if you don't have a GL then it's super unlikely that you will fight against a GL because only a small portion of players have a GL. That's completely FALSE!!!

There is a huge amount of people in division 1 and 2 that don't have a GL say well over 50% to be conservative. What % of div 1 and 2 have a GL 5%, 10%, 20% IT DOESN'T MATTER because over 12 matches based on GP almost everyone without a GL will face at least one GL in GAC.

Why don't you do a poll and see how many people in div 1 and 2 have never fought against a GL in GAC? If you did the number would be close to 0%.

Everyone without a GL has fought against a GL assuming they actually play gac.

That was my point

You guys can pick apart the math or the percents but in reality your all pushing a false narrative = basically GLs don't effect non GL owners because its super rare to match with them. That's false and if you don't believe my math do a poll and see what happens, I guarantee at least 90% of non GL owners have fought against a GL in div 1 and 2.

I may start doing that with regular GAC too. I really don't like it. Having a game crash ruin an entire bracket on multiple occasions has ruined the game mode for me. Plus the effort to reward ratio is horrible and not worth my time.

Maybe people should try to understand things conceptually before disagreeing with those things. Nah everyone already knows everything let's tell everyone why they are wrong before we try to understand what they said. Good outlook.

Yet to see you show anyone as incorrect here. Just trying to prove that you are 'technically correct' against someone arguing something that is literally correct.