New Character shard drop rates

Replies

  • Vendi1983 wrote: »
    Jppc wrote: »
    You don’t know about drop rate. Doesn’t matter if is shard or gear. That’s the point

    Except people do. Proven time and time again by thousands and hundreds of thousands of tracked drops. Purple gear, gold gear, character shards. It's all been tracked. Far more than your measly 5+ toons over a few months. Your "gut feeling" doesn't match the data.

    Guess what? That's not the data's fault.

    @Vendi1983 I was talking about the op, he doesn’t know the drop rates. You know, I know, kyno knows,tvf knows etc he doesn’t, he only know how to complain
  • dcbfan wrote: »
    Jppc wrote: »
    You don’t know about drop rate. Doesn’t matter if is shard or gear. That’s the point

    Actually the point of the game is to collect characters and ships. As far as gear drop rates. I dont care. I dont farm gear 12 and up. I buy gear 12 with gems. So why would I care about gear 12 drop rates.

    I never said the point of the game is drop rates. I said “that’s the point” that’s the point of the thread, that’s why you complain. You are wasting resources buying gear with crystals, you don’t care but you should. You don’t care but here you are complaining about drop rates.
  • TVF
    25611 posts Member
    The point of the game is whatever you choose. There's no one way to play beacuse there's no way to "win".
    The CGDF is recruiting. Say hi in our Discord! https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • @Snowbird13
    You're farming too much. Spending the 25 crystals for one node refresh is well worth it.

    Nah. Depends on your crystal income and what your goal is. If you start farming 6 toons at once and someone else starts farming 2 of them, but paying for each node to be refreshed 2x/day, they'll both statistically expect to get the last toon to 7* on exactly the same day, but one player will spend 150 crystals per day & the other will get those same characters for free.

    So the question is can you do more with 150 crystals/day x 170 days = 25,500 crystals or can you do more with getting those first 2 toons up to 7* a couple months early.

    In most cases the farm won't affect your Arena or Raid income, and therefore in most cases you can do far more with 25,500 crystals.

    You should still take the time to think about your overall strategy, of course, and to decide whether or not you could benefit in Arena or raids, but for most toons & ships the slow farm pays off better in the long run.

    Honestly, except for Y-Wing (which gets 1x 25/day refresh) I'm not refreshing any farming nodes right now, and generally I only refresh nodes for toons now because I simply don't have enough nodes to farm to use up all my energy + I have a very healthy crystal income.

    If I weren't succeeding in both arenas and running short of farms, refreshes would make very little sense.
  • @Snowbird13
    You're farming too much. Spending the 25 crystals for one node refresh is well worth it.

    Nah. Depends on your crystal income and what your goal is. If you start farming 6 toons at once and someone else starts farming 2 of them, but paying for each node to be refreshed 2x/day, they'll both statistically expect to get the last toon to 7* on exactly the same day, but one player will spend 150 crystals per day & the other will get those same characters for free.

    So the question is can you do more with 150 crystals/day x 170 days = 25,500 crystals or can you do more with getting those first 2 toons up to 7* a couple months early.

    In most cases the farm won't affect your Arena or Raid income, and therefore in most cases you can do far more with 25,500 crystals.

    You should still take the time to think about your overall strategy, of course, and to decide whether or not you could benefit in Arena or raids, but for most toons & ships the slow farm pays off better in the long run.

    Honestly, except for Y-Wing (which gets 1x 25/day refresh) I'm not refreshing any farming nodes right now, and generally I only refresh nodes for toons now because I simply don't have enough nodes to farm to use up all my energy + I have a very healthy crystal income.

    If I weren't succeeding in both arenas and running short of farms, refreshes would make very little sense.

    Agree. I am refreshing krenic's nose right now and tie bombers node twice but usually don't refresh any.

    I think getting the new gl as quickly as possible to stay at the top of arena. But for any other farms, I slow farm and will use excess energy for other farms or gear. The mandalorian characters or new ls marques just don't add enough to be worth farming quickly.
  • NicWester wrote: »
    Starslayer wrote: »
    Like people said, there is (are ?) hard data proving the 33% drop rate on character shards theory.

    American English: "Is hard data"
    Commonwealth English: "are data"

    Data is a whole bunch of individual datum. Commonwealth English refers to the individual datum, so it's plural, while American English refers to the final product, the data, so it's singular. It's like how Americans and the British refer to sports teams differently--but I can't remember how that works so don't mind me!

    I’m a grammar nerd (Oxford comma for life) and did not know this. Thank you.
  • 45 attempts lol.
    Maybe End Game isn't for you
  • NicWester wrote: »
    Starslayer wrote: »
    Like people said, there is (are ?) hard data proving the 33% drop rate on character shards theory.

    American English: "Is hard data"
    Commonwealth English: "are data"

    Data is a whole bunch of individual datum. Commonwealth English refers to the individual datum, so it's plural, while American English refers to the final product, the data, so it's singular. It's like how Americans and the British refer to sports teams differently--but I can't remember how that works so don't mind me!

    I’m a grammar nerd (Oxford comma for life) and did not know this. Thank you.

    I noticed it when watching hockey over an semi-legal streaming site and the announcers were British so I couldn't understand why they kept saying "Toronto are going to need to score some goals." It was SO ALIEN 😝
    Ceterum censeo Patientia esse meliat.
  • NicWester wrote: »
    Starslayer wrote: »
    Like people said, there is (are ?) hard data proving the 33% drop rate on character shards theory.

    American English: "There is data"
    Commonwealth English: "There are data"

    Data is a whole bunch of individual datum. Commonwealth English refers to the individual datum, so it's plural, while American English refers to the final product, the data, so it's singular. It's like how Americans and the British refer to sports teams differently--but I can't remember how that works so don't mind me!

    EDIT: I looked it up because it was bugging me. But, basically, in Commonwealth English you refer to a team as a plural, since they're referring to the players who make up the team. American English refers to teams singular, because we're referring to the one team. So if the US and UK were playing soccer in the World Cup, an American announcer would say "The US is advancing down the field" while a British announcer would say "The US are advancing down the pitch."

    Thx a bunch :)
  • Believe what you want but it seems to me that the new bright and shiny toons are always tough to get shards for. CG always puts them on a hard node and the best is when they double them up with some other garbage toon. I’ve been farming the tie bomber and the GRywing and I get plenty of Ima gun di but very few of the ships. Can someone say frustration marketing.
  • Believe what you want but it seems to me that the new bright and shiny toons are always tough to get shards for. CG always puts them on a hard node and the best is when they double them up with some other garbage toon. I’ve been farming the tie bomber and the GRywing and I get plenty of Ima gun di but very few of the ships. Can someone say frustration marketing.

    Existence of one thing on a node doesn't effect the drop rate of the other. You can always believe what you want instead of looking at the data ofc.
  • Believe what you want but it seems to me that the new bright and shiny toons are always tough to get shards for. CG always puts them on a hard node and the best is when they double them up with some other garbage toon. I’ve been farming the tie bomber and the GRywing and I get plenty of Ima gun di but very few of the ships. Can someone say frustration marketing.
    I can say "tinfoil hat". :D
  • Believe what you want but it seems to me that the new bright and shiny toons are always tough to get shards for. CG always puts them on a hard node and the best is when they double them up with some other garbage toon. I’ve been farming the tie bomber and the GRywing and I get plenty of Ima gun di but very few of the ships. Can someone say frustration marketing.

    I farmed the tie bomber from from 2/85 to 7 stars(got great drops on the galactic chase) and I was slightly over 33%. That includes the first two days when I went 1 for 30.
  • Believe what you want but it seems to me that the new bright and shiny toons are always tough to get shards for. CG always puts them on a hard node and the best is when they double them up with some other garbage toon. I’ve been farming the tie bomber and the GRywing and I get plenty of Ima gun di but very few of the ships. Can someone say frustration marketing.

    There are definitely days like that. It's really frustrating and I think putting Ima gundi on both of those makes the feeling worse.

    But there are also days that you get 3 or 4 bomber shards and no ima shards. They just aren't as memorable since it isn't as irritating. It's easy to test though. Start tracking all the new stuff put on existing nodes with old useless characters. Track the number of tries and what you get of each. Over the long run the old and new should even out. If they don't after a statically significant sample you can prove it otherwise.
  • dcbfan wrote: »
    Ok if you really think that, I give you one better my Greef is at 5* 0/85 shards. Only needing 185 shards on him. I bet I get the 297 faster and done before I get the 185. Needing 115 shards more only doing 2 extra attempts. Please at the 33% everyone is talking those 2 attempt might equal 1 extra shard every 2 days. My theory is those 2 extra attempts gives me st least 1 shard extra everyday. Not because of the attempts but because of the stats that an older character shards drop more often.

    My favorite part of this theory is that there is absolutely no math to support it. It is fundamentally flawed. Objective not clearly defined. Conclusion already made based on feelings, no data, and a flat refusal to even attempt to collect said data. The Earth is flat because I have decided it must be.

    Just collect the data and you will see. Open a spreadsheet and do this:
    • In column A put the date.
    • In column B put the TOTAL number of attempts performed on that day
    • In column C put the TOTAL number of shards collected on that day due to the attempts recorded in B. Do not include shards purchased from shipments or other events like Galactic War or Assault Battles etc. etc.
    • Record the data every day and do NOT estimate the numbers, be objective, be scientific, be truthful.
    • When you are done collecting shards, sum all the entries in C and divide by the sum of all the entries in B.
    .
    Yes it is tedious, yes it is boring, but it is the only way to prove your point. You will never get through peer review without a data table. This is the way.

    After collecting all your data, PLEASE return and report your actual results. If you do find a rate different from ~33%, everyone here would be interested to see it. But you need to bring data!

    People also complained about Shaak Ti drop rates a year ago so I did a bunch of tracking and guess what? 33.5% drop rate. https://forums.galaxy-of-heroes.starwars.ea.com/discussion/213406/shaak-ti-shard-farming-253-755-33-5-7-update-bonus-droideka-xanadu-and-b1

    New characters do not drop less frequently than old characters.

    The op was a somewhat promising naysayer with some willingness to track it, but from the looks of it he/she will probably come with "I got x shards in y days, z finished before w" type of result in a few months. Open to be pleasantly surprised though.
  • dcbfan wrote: »
    As far as 33% on each character that's the biggest darn lie yet I know CG to tell.

    CG never said this, as far as I know. The players deduced this number by collecting data. Every time somebody decides to track it and calculate the drop rate, they get something very close to this.
    It is entirely possible the actual drop rate is something slightly different from 33% I have found my personal rates to be between 33%-39%, but in the end it is easier to accept the 1/3 rule of thumb: expect an AVERAGE of 1 shard for every 3 attempts.
  • dcbfan wrote: »
    Ok if you really think that, I give you one better my Greef is at 5* 0/85 shards. Only needing 185 shards on him. I bet I get the 297 faster and done before I get the 185. Needing 115 shards more only doing 2 extra attempts. Please at the 33% everyone is talking those 2 attempt might equal 1 extra shard every 2 days. My theory is those 2 extra attempts gives me st least 1 shard extra everyday. Not because of the attempts but because of the stats that an older character shards drop more often.

    My favorite part of this theory is that there is absolutely no math to support it. It is fundamentally flawed. Objective not clearly defined. Conclusion already made based on feelings, no data, and a flat refusal to even attempt to collect said data. The Earth is flat because I have decided it must be.

    Just collect the data and you will see. Open a spreadsheet and do this:
    • In column A put the date.
    • In column B put the TOTAL number of attempts performed on that day
    • In column C put the TOTAL number of shards collected on that day due to the attempts recorded in B. Do not include shards purchased from shipments or other events like Galactic War or Assault Battles etc. etc.
    • Record the data every day and do NOT estimate the numbers, be objective, be scientific, be truthful.
    • When you are done collecting shards, sum all the entries in C and divide by the sum of all the entries in B.
    .
    Yes it is tedious, yes it is boring, but it is the only way to prove your point. You will never get through peer review without a data table. This is the way.

    After collecting all your data, PLEASE return and report your actual results. If you do find a rate different from ~33%, everyone here would be interested to see it. But you need to bring data!

    People also complained about Shaak Ti drop rates a year ago so I did a bunch of tracking and guess what? 33.5% drop rate. https://forums.galaxy-of-heroes.starwars.ea.com/discussion/213406/shaak-ti-shard-farming-253-755-33-5-7-update-bonus-droideka-xanadu-and-b1

    New characters do not drop less frequently than old characters.

    I would add to do this specifically for each toon being farmed and not a collated total.
  • @EventineElessedil
    It is entirely possible the actual drop rate is something slightly different from 33% I have found my personal rates to be between 33%-39%, but in the end it is easier to accept the 1/3 rule of thumb: expect an AVERAGE of 1 shard for every 3 attempts.

    I always expect a 30% drop rate, then if I'm under performing over the long haul, I'm not disappointed, but if I'm average I shave a few days or even a week or two (depending on attempts/day and how many shards I started out needing) off my target date. I never wan't to plan on something being finished by a particular date if that requires me being in the 50th %ile of drops.
  • crzydroid
    4836 posts Moderator
    The thing that people don't realize is that while 33% is the average, it's actually a skewed distribution because the mean is below the midpoint, ie, 50%.
    So you are going to see more drops below 33% than above it-- it's just that occasionally you'll get some big drops to even it out.

    So that can take a psychological toll--people come on here feeling that they are not getting 33% because most of the drops actually ARE below that. They just don't seem to notice the less seldom bigger drops--which is why it’s important to track the drops, so you can verify your longterm average drop rate before wasting crystals on shipments.
  • If we all know the drop rates are 33% then why is this still being debated?
  • If we all know the drop rates are 33% then why is this still being debated?

    Tinfoil hats is my guess.
  • Starslayer
    307 posts Member
    edited September 22
    The forums are improved when these posts are questioned, queried and called out. Whether those responsible for the posts like it or not.

    And those responsible for the post can learn something, if they're willing. That's awesome in my book ;)

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