New Character shard drop rates

Replies

  • I remember when I farmed Royal Guard waaaaay back in the day. I finished it so fast, it had ro have been AT LEAST 40%.

    Anecdotal, I know, but still memorable.

    Anyway, the drop rate is about 1/3, with a small margin of error. Sometimes you just get really lucky or unlucky. It happens.
    Ceterum censeo Patientia esse meliat.
  • If we all know the drop rates are 33% then why is this still being debated?

    Tinfoil hats is my guess.

    This is literally the best comment in this whole thread!!
  • TVF
    25694 posts Member
    DadKev wrote: »
    If we all know the drop rates are 33% then why is this still being debated?

    Tinfoil hats is my guess.

    This is literally the best comment in this whole thread!!

    3CcI.gif
    The CGDF is recruiting. Say hi in our Discord! https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • MasterSeedy
    2396 posts Member
    edited September 23
    Why settle for a tinfoil hat when you can have a Faraday Beanie?


    Faraday_Beanie.png?width=1866&height=997


  • Why settle for a tinfoil hat when you can have a Faraday Beanie?


    Faraday_Beanie.png?width=1866&height=997


    And it's machine washable

  • Why settle for a tinfoil hat when you can have a Faraday Beanie?


    Faraday_Beanie.png?width=1866&height=997


    And it's machine washable

    So you can put it on EVERYTIME you post on the forums!! :D
    In game name: Lucas Gregory - - - -"Whale blah grump poooop." - Ouchie

    In game guild: TNR Uprising
    I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
    *This space left intentionally blank*
  • Nikoms565 wrote: »
    Why settle for a tinfoil hat when you can have a Faraday Beanie?


    Faraday_Beanie.png?width=1866&height=997


    And it's machine washable

    So you can put it on EVERYTIME you post on the forums!! :D

    Is there a version you can use as a mask ?
  • dcbfan wrote: »
    Ok if you really think that, I give you one better my Greef is at 5* 0/85 shards. Only needing 185 shards on him. I bet I get the 297 faster and done before I get the 185. Needing 115 shards more only doing 2 extra attempts. Please at the 33% everyone is talking those 2 attempt might equal 1 extra shard every 2 days. My theory is those 2 extra attempts gives me st least 1 shard extra everyday. Not because of the attempts but because of the stats that an older character shards drop more often.

    My favorite part of this theory is that there is absolutely no math to support it. It is fundamentally flawed. Objective not clearly defined. Conclusion already made based on feelings, no data, and a flat refusal to even attempt to collect said data. The Earth is flat because I have decided it must be.

    Just collect the data and you will see. Open a spreadsheet and do this:
    • In column A put the date.
    • In column B put the TOTAL number of attempts performed on that day
    • In column C put the TOTAL number of shards collected on that day due to the attempts recorded in B. Do not include shards purchased from shipments or other events like Galactic War or Assault Battles etc. etc.
    • Record the data every day and do NOT estimate the numbers, be objective, be scientific, be truthful.
    • When you are done collecting shards, sum all the entries in C and divide by the sum of all the entries in B.
    .
    Yes it is tedious, yes it is boring, but it is the only way to prove your point. You will never get through peer review without a data table. This is the way.

    After collecting all your data, PLEASE return and report your actual results. If you do find a rate different from ~33%, everyone here would be interested to see it. But you need to bring data!

    People also complained about Shaak Ti drop rates a year ago so I did a bunch of tracking and guess what? 33.5% drop rate. https://forums.galaxy-of-heroes.starwars.ea.com/discussion/213406/shaak-ti-shard-farming-253-755-33-5-7-update-bonus-droideka-xanadu-and-b1

    New characters do not drop less frequently than old characters.

    You will get what you are asking for. It's been 12 days of playing since I started this. Here are my number so far. Proves my point that the newest characters shards drop at lower rates.
    Mando 60 attempts 18 shards a rate of 30%,
    Cara 60 attempts 13 shards are of 21.6%,
    Chewpio 54 attempts 7 shards a rate of 12%,
    Geo BA 70 attempts 30 shards a rate of 42.8%,
    BTL-B Y-Wing 45 attempts 13 shards a rate of 28.8%,
    Rebel Y-Wing 57 attempts 19 shards a rate of 33.3%,
    Greef 5 attempts 22 shards a rate of 38.5%,
    Poe 30 attempts 5 shards a rate of 16.6%,
    Mon Mothma 30 attempts 4 shards 13.3%

    I know I have a long ways to go. Will continue to collect data. So far the 2 newest characters I'm farming in Mon and Chewpio. The drop rates are well below the "33%" everyone is quoting. They are even below 15%. Also proving to be close to what was said. My Geo BA farm is close to where i said it was at around 50%. Turns out it really is 42.8%. Those have been my number as of this point in the process. These are true numbers, not something some SWGOH whale through together while spending money on the game or CG stooge.
  • Cara Dune, Mando, Rebel Y-Wing & Greef are all new farms as well.
  • I’ve had bad luck with MM but great luck with 3PO and chewie. Conclusion: CG has strong anti-human feelings and have rigged rates in favor of aliens and droids.
  • dcbfan
    115 posts Member
    edited October 1
    Cara Dune, Mando, Rebel Y-Wing & Greef are all new farms as well.

    No, actually they are not the newest of characters. That title would go Chewpio, Mon Mothma, Piett. Those are the newest characters. CG limits the shard drops on their newest characters, so only those that pay can get them so quickly. As these characters get older their rates will even out more to the 33% everyone on here has been saying. I never said the 33 didnt happen. Just that newer characters are below 15% drop rate. As of now the data shows to be true. As we along this data will become clear then everuone will say my data is fake cause it doesnt equal what others have done.

    I will stand corrected but I dont believe anyone has take a new F2P character and tracked the drop % week after week to see if the drop rate stay the same, get better or worse. I still say that they start at less then a 10% drop rate and go up from there week by week until most of the community has that character then they level out around that 33% everyone says.

    The key to their arguement is they keep saying over time. Over time I dont average 3 yrs old anymore either. What I want to know is does CG limit drop rates on new characters. The answer so far has been yes. So far Chewpio and Mon are both less then 15%. Where the next set of newer characters(mandalorian) are closer to that 33%.
  • Ultra
    6696 posts Member
    So far:

    Mon Mothma: 77/175 (44%)

    Hope posting this doesn't ruin my good run tomorrow onwards
  • dcbfan
    115 posts Member
    Ultra wrote: »
    So far:

    Mon Mothma: 77/175 (44%)

    Hope posting this doesn't ruin my good run tomorrow onwards

    Again your paying for extra refreshes and attempts.
  • dcbfan
    115 posts Member
    Ultra wrote: »
    So far:

    Mon Mothma: 77/175 (44%)

    Hope posting this doesn't ruin my good run tomorrow onwards

    Not to mention Mon has only been farmanle for 6 days. 175 attempts says your trying almost 30 attempts a day. That's refreshing Mon at least 5 times.
  • Ultra
    6696 posts Member
    dcbfan wrote: »
    Ultra wrote: »
    So far:

    Mon Mothma: 77/175 (44%)

    Hope posting this doesn't ruin my good run tomorrow onwards

    Again your paying for extra refreshes and attempts.
    doesn't matter
  • Ultra
    6696 posts Member
    lnjmidjjgue8.png

    This was my first 5 sims for the day; I didn't pay for extra refreshes or attempts since I woke up to > 100 node energy
  • dcbfan
    115 posts Member
    Ultra wrote: »
    dcbfan wrote: »
    Ultra wrote: »
    So far:

    Mon Mothma: 77/175 (44%)

    Hope posting this doesn't ruin my good run tomorrow onwards

    Again your paying for extra refreshes and attempts.
    doesn't matter

    That's exactly the point. While your paying for those extra shards. I'm farming F2P.
  • crzydroid
    4849 posts Moderator
    dcbfan wrote: »
    dcbfan wrote: »
    Ok if you really think that, I give you one better my Greef is at 5* 0/85 shards. Only needing 185 shards on him. I bet I get the 297 faster and done before I get the 185. Needing 115 shards more only doing 2 extra attempts. Please at the 33% everyone is talking those 2 attempt might equal 1 extra shard every 2 days. My theory is those 2 extra attempts gives me st least 1 shard extra everyday. Not because of the attempts but because of the stats that an older character shards drop more often.

    My favorite part of this theory is that there is absolutely no math to support it. It is fundamentally flawed. Objective not clearly defined. Conclusion already made based on feelings, no data, and a flat refusal to even attempt to collect said data. The Earth is flat because I have decided it must be.

    Just collect the data and you will see. Open a spreadsheet and do this:
    • In column A put the date.
    • In column B put the TOTAL number of attempts performed on that day
    • In column C put the TOTAL number of shards collected on that day due to the attempts recorded in B. Do not include shards purchased from shipments or other events like Galactic War or Assault Battles etc. etc.
    • Record the data every day and do NOT estimate the numbers, be objective, be scientific, be truthful.
    • When you are done collecting shards, sum all the entries in C and divide by the sum of all the entries in B.
    .
    Yes it is tedious, yes it is boring, but it is the only way to prove your point. You will never get through peer review without a data table. This is the way.

    After collecting all your data, PLEASE return and report your actual results. If you do find a rate different from ~33%, everyone here would be interested to see it. But you need to bring data!

    People also complained about Shaak Ti drop rates a year ago so I did a bunch of tracking and guess what? 33.5% drop rate. https://forums.galaxy-of-heroes.starwars.ea.com/discussion/213406/shaak-ti-shard-farming-253-755-33-5-7-update-bonus-droideka-xanadu-and-b1

    New characters do not drop less frequently than old characters.

    You will get what you are asking for. It's been 12 days of playing since I started this. Here are my number so far. Proves my point that the newest characters shards drop at lower rates.
    Mando 60 attempts 18 shards a rate of 30%,
    Cara 60 attempts 13 shards are of 21.6%,
    Chewpio 54 attempts 7 shards a rate of 12%,
    Geo BA 70 attempts 30 shards a rate of 42.8%,
    BTL-B Y-Wing 45 attempts 13 shards a rate of 28.8%,
    Rebel Y-Wing 57 attempts 19 shards a rate of 33.3%,
    Greef 5 attempts 22 shards a rate of 38.5%,
    Poe 30 attempts 5 shards a rate of 16.6%,
    Mon Mothma 30 attempts 4 shards 13.3%

    I know I have a long ways to go. Will continue to collect data. So far the 2 newest characters I'm farming in Mon and Chewpio. The drop rates are well below the "33%" everyone is quoting. They are even below 15%. Also proving to be close to what was said. My Geo BA farm is close to where i said it was at around 50%. Turns out it really is 42.8%. Those have been my number as of this point in the process. These are true numbers, not something some SWGOH whale through together while spending money on the game or CG stooge.

    Thank you for taking the time to record. Keep going! Your samples are still small, so go another 12 days, go 24, and you may see your numbers start to approach that 33%. Just for reference, here are the 95% confidence intervals for your attempts:

    Mando:18.4% - 41.6%
    Cara:11.2% - 32.1%
    Chewpio: 4% - 21.9%
    Geo: 31.3% - 54.5%
    Y-Wing: 21.1% - 45.6%
    Greef: 26% - 51.2%
    Poe:3.3% - 30%
    MM: 11.7% - 25.5%

    There is quite a spread there...you do have a few that would be considered a statistically significant at the 0.05 level. One is MM, a new one. But one is Poe, an old one. A very old one if you mean original Poe. Another is Chewpio, a new one, and your last is Cara, which some would consider old. I don't know if you consider that new or not for your definition of when they supposedly change the drop rates. Consider, though, that Mando and Greef are the same age as Cara, and those two rates have confidence intervals which include the 33% estimate, and thus fail to be significantly different.

    You also have nine comparisons here, so there is a little over a 1/3 chance you have at least one Type I error. We could maybe try and pool these by "old vs. new" if you give me your definition of which ones you consider old enough for them to have increased the drop rate. Then we could see if there was a difference between rates based on this criterion. At any rate, you should be able to see from the wide confidence intervals that your sample size is pretty small. Keep collecting, and we can take another look in another two weeks.

    Also remember that under your hypothesis, the drop rates would be smaller for everyone, and yet there are people saying they've had better rates for Mon Mothma and Chewie&Threepio than what you have.
  • dcbfan
    115 posts Member
    Ultra wrote: »
    lnjmidjjgue8.png

    This was my first 5 sims for the day; I didn't pay for extra refreshes or attempts since I woke up to > 100 node energy

    I had a day of getting 3 also but a lot more of 0 or 1 then 3. This goes for Chewpio and Mon.
  • crzydroid
    4849 posts Moderator
    "...newer characters are below 15% drop rate. As of now the data shows to be true."

    See my post. The confidence interval for your observed rates for both Mon Mothma and Chewie go over 15%, so you cannot claim evidence that the true rate is below that amount.

    "That's exactly the point. While your paying for those extra shards. I'm farming F2P."

    It's actually NOT your point. We are talking about RATES. You are saying the RATE is less than 15%...that is shards divided by attempts, no matter how many attempts they are. If there is a constant rate, it will reflect as you do more attempts. Unless you are now also suggesting that the game tracks the number of refreshes you do and also increases the rate for higher refreshes. If you have too few attempts however, there is more random error.
  • Ultra
    6696 posts Member
    dcbfan wrote: »
    Ultra wrote: »
    dcbfan wrote: »
    Ultra wrote: »
    So far:

    Mon Mothma: 77/175 (44%)

    Hope posting this doesn't ruin my good run tomorrow onwards

    Again your paying for extra refreshes and attempts.
    doesn't matter

    That's exactly the point. While your paying for those extra shards. I'm farming F2P.

    i'm also farming F2P

    Sounds to me that you are going to keep making whatever excuses you can to keep your narrative and aren't open or willing to listen to others
  • dcbfan wrote: »
    Cara Dune, Mando, Rebel Y-Wing & Greef are all new farms as well.

    No, actually they are not the newest of characters. That title would go Chewpio, Mon Mothma, Piett. Those are the newest characters. CG limits the shard drops on their newest characters as so only those that pay can get them so quickly. As these characters get older their rates will even out more to the 33% everyone on here has been saying. I never said the 33 didnt happen. Just that newer characters are below 15% drop rate. As of now the data shows to be true. As we along this data will become clear then everuone will say my data is fake cause it doesnt equal,whatnothers have done.

    I will stand corrected but I dont believe anyone has take a new F2P character and tracked the drop % week after week to se if the drop rate stay the same, get better or worse. I still say that they start at less then a 10% drop rate and go up from there week by week until most of the community has that character then they level out at 33%.

    While it's great you are collecting data, it's entirely premature to draw any conclusions from the data you've collected. I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt on the validity of your data because why you'd intentionally fake data to reinforce a misguided view of the world is beyond me. However, there's a statistical concept known as the law of large numbers which roughly speaking says that as the number of samples approaches infinity the sample proportion (in this case) converges to the true proportion. In practice, you don't actually need an infinite number of samples but you need enough to be confident your sample proportion has stabilized. Take your personal sample proportion (4/30) for Mon Mothma. You might have another crappy day tomorrow and go (0/5) so your new sample proportion is (4/35) or about 11.4%. Or you might have an amazing day and go (5/5) so your new sample proportions is (9/35) or about 25.7%. Point being because your sample size is small now your sample proportion really hasn't converged to anything yet so you can't draw any reasonable conclusion about what the true proportion is.

    You've created an odd sort of catch-22 within your mind here because by the time you've actually collectedly enough data for the rates to have converged to the truth the characters will also be "old" to you. The only way around that conundrum would be for you to recruit other players to your cause and combine data from multiple people over whatever timespan you deem "new" to amass "a large number" of data points. Good luck!
  • dcbfan
    115 posts Member
    crzydroid wrote: »
    "...newer characters are below 15% drop rate. As of now the data shows to be true."

    See my post. The confidence interval for your observed rates for both Mon Mothma and Chewie go over 15%, so you cannot claim evidence that the true rate is below that amount.

    "That's exactly the point. While your paying for those extra shards. I'm farming F2P."

    It's actually NOT your point. We are talking about RATES. You are saying the RATE is less than 15%...that is shards divided by attempts, no matter how many attempts they are. If there is a constant rate, it will reflect as you do more attempts. Unless you are now also suggesting that the game tracks the number of refreshes you do and also increases the rate for higher refreshes. If you have too few attempts however, there is more random error.

    No I'm sure CG gives better drop rates the more you pay. Quit playing the game as a moneymspender and justify everything towards the 1% who play the game. Play more like the 75% that dont spend and tell me your number are the same.
  • dcbfan
    115 posts Member
    edited October 1
    Until someone can show me numbers by a true F2P player that doesnt spend Crystal's on refreshes. Tracks those number by weeks and when those characters were released. Then come back to me 33%. I know after 5 years playing this game and farming shards that 33 is now where close to what you get F2P the first couple months.
  • dcbfan
    115 posts Member
    Calo_Nord wrote: »
    dcbfan wrote: »
    Cara Dune, Mando, Rebel Y-Wing & Greef are all new farms as well.

    No, actually they are not the newest of characters. That title would go Chewpio, Mon Mothma, Piett. Those are the newest characters. CG limits the shard drops on their newest characters as so only those that pay can get them so quickly. As these characters get older their rates will even out more to the 33% everyone on here has been saying. I never said the 33 didnt happen. Just that newer characters are below 15% drop rate. As of now the data shows to be true. As we along this data will become clear then everuone will say my data is fake cause it doesnt equal,whatnothers have done.

    I will stand corrected but I dont believe anyone has take a new F2P character and tracked the drop % week after week to se if the drop rate stay the same, get better or worse. I still say that they start at less then a 10% drop rate and go up from there week by week until most of the community has that character then they level out at 33%.

    While it's great you are collecting data, it's entirely premature to draw any conclusions from the data you've collected. I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt on the validity of your data because why you'd intentionally fake data to reinforce a misguided view of the world is beyond me. However, there's a statistical concept known as the law of large numbers which roughly speaking says that as the number of samples approaches infinity the sample proportion (in this case) converges to the true proportion. In practice, you don't actually need an infinite number of samples but you need enough to be confident your sample proportion has stabilized. Take your personal sample proportion (4/30) for Mon Mothma. You might have another crappy day tomorrow and go (0/5) so your new sample proportion is (4/35) or about 11.4%. Or you might have an amazing day and go (5/5) so your new sample proportions is (9/35) or about 25.7%. Point being because your sample size is small now your sample proportion really hasn't converged to anything yet so you can't draw any reasonable conclusion about what the true proportion is.

    You've created an odd sort of catch-22 within your mind here because by the time you've actually collectedly enough data for the rates to have converged to the truth the characters will also be "old" to you. The only way around that conundrum would be for you to recruit other players to your cause and combine data from multiple people over whatever timespan you deem "new" to amass "a large number" of data points. Good luck!

    This is true and I agree with everything you said. That was always my point. 33% over a 6 month farm I would expect but what is it in the first weeks and couple months. This thread always asked the same question which was does CG lower drop rates on new characters. I didnt know the answer starting this.The answer has become clear to me. That is No One Knows, because no one has tracked it. No one has numbers. Not to mention I'm not doubting the numbers out there. My question is to them were those numbers taken strictly F2P or were they refreshing attempt. Numbers can be misused how ever you need them. I'm tracking these from a totally F2P place. 5 attempts a day except for cantina farms. I will continue to track these numbers and will stopped all numbers and recorded them at the 2 week mark, 1 month mark and 2 month mark. That way we can get a better look at what a true F2P goes through. This will continue until I feel a have enough sample size and data to present to everyone.
  • TheJEFFtm
    748 posts Member
    edited October 1
    dcbfan wrote: »
    Until someone can show me numbers by a true F2P player that doesnt spend Crystal's on refreshes. Tracks those number by weeks and when those characters were released. Then come back to me 33%. I know after 5 years playing this game and farming shards that 33 is now where close to what you get F2P the first couple months.

    That is a logical fallacy (especially considering your previous post where you say to quit playing like a money spender and see if your numbers stay the same).

    (Caveat, I am not free to play, however, my last purchase was the initial release of Darth Malak, so how long one must play without spending to be considered to be like “the 75% that don’t spend”? I’m sitting at just under 18 months since his April ‘19 release)

    Crystal refreshes don’t cost money, they cost crystals. Even someone with 0 crystal income from arenas still can make their 100+ crystals from completing daily activities and 375 free energy (with the 3 boosts available throughout the day - that is more than enough to refresh a single 20 energy hard node twice (25 and 50 crystals for a total of 75), and 300 required energy to make the 15 attempts a day for that node.

    Those who have a significant crystal income from placing highly in arena(s), along with the other crystals that everyone can get from events like GAC promotions, daily log in rewards, TB payouts, Galactic Challenges, etc. have more freedom to purchase refreshes or chase additional nodes, just as those who choose to purchase crystals in game do.

    I chase new characters hard, I always have (And that usually means double refreshing the node every day - not really sure why anymore, the number of characters I have at 7 stars waiting for gear, far outstrips the rate I can gear them, and the gear gate for newer events has risen so steeply that it doesn’t really seem that smart upon reflection... force of habit, I suppose, I just like the flexibility of knowing I don’t have to farm them in a huge panic for ‘the next big thing’.) but I have pretty much always used my native crystal income to do so (and certainly since the old crystal subscription went away, I did buy some of those back when), on the occasions that I have spent money, the crystals were immediately used to purchase gear or shards directly from the store, not on subsidizing a prolonged farming campaign.

    If you are interested, I can dig up several posts on these forums where I, along with several others have posted weekly updates on our farms of new characters (believe me, everything you are asking to see is readily available on these forums if you only want to go look), and in every case I can recall, for every person that was running cold, somebody else was running hot, but you very quickly saw the numbers approach the expected 33%.

    (Also, my very first 5 sims of Mon Mothma’s node yielded 5 shards, the next 5, another 2 shards, and my third batch of 5 sims gave me 4 shards. Attempts 4, 5 and 6 though, yielded, 1, 0, 2 shards. But I trust it will average out over the approximate total of 840 sims, and I will receive my 280 shards in due course.)

    Just for fun, as a counter to your theory that shard drop rate increases the longer a character has been released, you should search for the multitude of threads that claim that drop rates decrease at the end of a farm...
    Post edited by TheJEFFtm on
  • So once again, cg cant fix bugs, but they track every player, and also if they use crystals for energy refreshes to adjust the rate of drops?

    Fwiw, I farmed the imperial tie bomber from the day it was released to a node, and got around 33%. But I get number one in fleet every day, and used those crystals to do 15 battles a day, so cg must have adjusted my rates.
  • KausDebonair
    907 posts Member
    edited October 1
    dcbfan wrote: »
    Until someone can show me numbers by a true F2P player that doesnt spend Crystal's on refreshes. Tracks those number by weeks and when those characters were released. Then come back to me 33%. I know after 5 years playing this game and farming shards that 33 is now where close to what you get F2P the first couple months.

    What is your precise definition of free to play? If you were 100% free to play, do you never, ever, under any circumstances, spend any of your crystals? Why is spending the crystals you get for free no longer considered free to play, according to you?

    I net 525 crystals per day between the arenas, plus the crystals from the dailies. Without spending money. Am I no longer free to play if I spend those free crystals for refreshes?

    Edited for a spelling error.
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