Try this thread out for size, while he doesn’t start on day one (but it is early, and all laid out) every bit of data you could ask for is there, it is even slow roll 5 attempts per day.
I had high hopes that the OP had listened to reason and would return with a more rational take on the drop rates etc.
I was wrong. @dcbfan you have obviously made up your mind that things are as you describe. You’ve gathered evidence (a very small set of evidence at that) and have decided that it fits an ever-changing narrative that you’re creating and adjusting on the fly.
Just yesterday I noted my pleasant surprise that I’d earned 91 Chewpio shards off the 215 attempts I’ve made (10 a day, plus I managed 5 the day he arrived on his node). That’s 42%+. But of course you’ll dismiss that because I “pay” for refreshes (even though I’ve not spent a dime on this game for 6 months).
As ever, it’s a case of confirmation bias with a dash of persecution complex thrown in for good measure.
@OP so just come back with the full drop rate results from the upcoming 10 marquee characters all fully farmed to 7 stars and let us know your results. But keep in mind even those results are not conclusive as you would have to compare this with many more players who have done the same to get a decent form of security to call out a drop rate.
The way statistics work with a 33% rate is that you can have 1 guy have a final drop rate of 50% and the other have 10%. You are just having bad luck.
If you don't win the lottery with your first 10 tries doesn't mean they rigged the win chances.
As for your comparison to old toons.
If you enter 2 lotteries and you win one of them, does that mean the other automatically has la lower win chance? nope, you got lucky in one and unlucky in the other
Just know that RNG is always a factor and you can get good and bad luck. If you experience something personal on such a small scale it absolutely does not make it fact
Ok if you really think that, I give you one better my Greef is at 5* 0/85 shards. Only needing 185 shards on him. I bet I get the 297 faster and done before I get the 185. Needing 115 shards more only doing 2 extra attempts. Please at the 33% everyone is talking those 2 attempt might equal 1 extra shard every 2 days. My theory is those 2 extra attempts gives me st least 1 shard extra everyday. Not because of the attempts but because of the stats that an older character shards drop more often.
My favorite part of this theory is that there is absolutely no math to support it. It is fundamentally flawed. Objective not clearly defined. Conclusion already made based on feelings, no data, and a flat refusal to even attempt to collect said data. The Earth is flat because I have decided it must be.
Just collect the data and you will see. Open a spreadsheet and do this:
In column A put the date.
In column B put the TOTAL number of attempts performed on that day
In column C put the TOTAL number of shards collected on that day due to the attempts recorded in B. Do not include shards purchased from shipments or other events like Galactic War or Assault Battles etc. etc.
Record the data every day and do NOT estimate the numbers, be objective, be scientific, be truthful.
When you are done collecting shards, sum all the entries in C and divide by the sum of all the entries in B.
.
Yes it is tedious, yes it is boring, but it is the only way to prove your point. You will never get through peer review without a data table. This is the way.
After collecting all your data, PLEASE return and report your actual results. If you do find a rate different from ~33%, everyone here would be interested to see it. But you need to bring data!
New characters do not drop less frequently than old characters.
You will get what you are asking for. It's been 12 days of playing since I started this. Here are my number so far. Proves my point that the newest characters shards drop at lower rates.
Mando 60 attempts 18 shards a rate of 30%,
Cara 60 attempts 13 shards are of 21.6%,
Chewpio 54 attempts 7 shards a rate of 12%,
Geo BA 70 attempts 30 shards a rate of 42.8%,
BTL-B Y-Wing 45 attempts 13 shards a rate of 28.8%,
Rebel Y-Wing 57 attempts 19 shards a rate of 33.3%,
Greef 5 attempts 22 shards a rate of 38.5%,
Poe 30 attempts 5 shards a rate of 16.6%,
Mon Mothma 30 attempts 4 shards 13.3%
I know I have a long ways to go. Will continue to collect data. So far the 2 newest characters I'm farming in Mon and Chewpio. The drop rates are well below the "33%" everyone is quoting. They are even below 15%. Also proving to be close to what was said. My Geo BA farm is close to where i said it was at around 50%. Turns out it really is 42.8%. Those have been my number as of this point in the process. These are true numbers, not something some SWGOH whale through together while spending money on the game or CG stooge.
If you add up all the numbers you posted you get 131 shards with 411 attempts, which is...... 31.87%
Until someone can show me numbers by a true F2P player that doesnt spend Crystal's on refreshes. Tracks those number by weeks and when those characters were released. Then come back to me 33%. I know after 5 years playing this game and farming shards that 33 is now where close to what you get F2P the first couple months.
Not spending crystals on refreshes has nothing to do with f2p. You get enough crystals from dailies to spend on a few refreshes if that's what you choose to do.
I think his explanation is that when you spwnd crystals on refreshes the drop rate is changed for subsequent sims. He's accounting for this variable by farming without refreshes.
It's bunk, of course, but at least it's a rational way of testing for bunk! Like the time the guy meant to proce Aether existed and wound up proving it didn't.
Until someone can show me numbers by a true F2P player that doesnt spend Crystal's on refreshes. Tracks those number by weeks and when those characters were released. Then come back to me 33%. I know after 5 years playing this game and farming shards that 33 is now where close to what you get F2P the first couple months.
Unfortunately you just dont seem to understand how the math works.
Attempts/ shards is completely independent of how many attempts you do in a day.
Refreshing (which by the way is not exclusive to players who pay) has nothing to do with the drop rate, as the drop rate has no dependance on the number of days you farm.
Also, just because math is great, technically if what you were saying was true, anyone who refreshed would actually have a worse drop rate than those who dont, and since I believe you are calling those who do not refresh "true F2P", you are suggesting they get the better deal, while trying to say they do not.
Again you all missing the point. In the first couple weeks/months the newer character drop rates are different the those that are older by a large amount. I could care less what the farm rate is for the total 6 month farm. I will even admit that all might be right with a 33% over 6 months. If your only getting a 15% drop rate those first couple weeks/months. Then the true drop rate isnt 33% that's just the average.
And why am I getting much higher than you as f2p? I'm exclusively farming these 2 newest toons.
Again you all missing the point. In the first couple weeks/months the newer character drop rates are different the those that are older by a large amount. I could care less what the farm rate is for the total 6 month farm. I will even admit that all might be right with a 33% over 6 months. If your only getting a 15% drop rate those first couple weeks/months. Then the true drop rate isnt 33% that's just the average.
You're missing the point that you're wrong. All shards and blueprints drop at a 33% rate, full stop.
Again you all missing the point. In the first couple weeks/months the newer character drop rates are different the those that are older by a large amount. I could care less what the farm rate is for the total 6 month farm. I will even admit that all might be right with a 33% over 6 months. If your only getting a 15% drop rate those first couple weeks/months. Then the true drop rate isnt 33% that's just the average.
And why am I getting much higher than you as f2p? I'm exclusively farming these 2 newest toons.
Because you are spending Crystal's. The more you spend the more CG awards you with more shardsl
And? I'm talking about drop rates, not number of attempts.
Again you all missing the point. In the first couple weeks/months the newer character drop rates are different the those that are older by a large amount. I could care less what the farm rate is for the total 6 month farm. I will even admit that all might be right with a 33% over 6 months. If your only getting a 15% drop rate those first couple weeks/months. Then the true drop rate isnt 33% that's just the average.
Try this thread out for size, while he doesn’t start on day one (but it is early, and all laid out) every bit of data you could ask for is there, it is even slow roll 5 attempts per day.
Again you all missing the point. In the first couple weeks/months the newer character drop rates are different the those that are older by a large amount. I could care less what the farm rate is for the total 6 month farm. I will even admit that all might be right with a 33% over 6 months. If your only getting a 15% drop rate those first couple weeks/months. Then the true drop rate isnt 33% that's just the average.
You're missing the point that you're wrong. All shards and blueprints drop at a 33% rate, full stop.
Again 33% drop rate is 1 in 3. What you all are talking about 33% average over the time of farm
For every farm regardless of how you do it and who you farm, yes.
Again you all missing the point. In the first couple weeks/months the newer character drop rates are different the those that are older by a large amount. I could care less what the farm rate is for the total 6 month farm. I will even admit that all might be right with a 33% over 6 months. If your only getting a 15% drop rate those first couple weeks/months. Then the true drop rate isnt 33% that's just the average.
You're missing the point that you're wrong. All shards and blueprints drop at a 33% rate, full stop.
Again 33% drop rate is 1 in 3. What you all are talking about 33% average over the time of farm
If you flip a coin twice, it doesn't alternate heads/tails. HTH. Please don't argue math if you don't understand what "statistically significant sample size" and "variance" are. Also, don't ever play poker for money.
In game name: Lucas Gregory FORMER PLAYER - - - -"Whale blah grump poooop." - Ouchie
In game guild: TNR Uprising I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
*This space left intentionally blank*
Again you all missing the point. In the first couple weeks/months the newer character drop rates are different the those that are older by a large amount. I could care less what the farm rate is for the total 6 month farm. I will even admit that all might be right with a 33% over 6 months. If your only getting a 15% drop rate those first couple weeks/months. Then the true drop rate isnt 33% that's just the average.
You're missing the point that you're wrong. All shards and blueprints drop at a 33% rate, full stop.
Again 33% drop rate is 1 in 3. What you all are talking about 33% average over the time of farm
For every farm regardless of how you do it and who you farm, yes.
Well this is not what was asked I. the post. What was asked is does CG lower drop rates on brand new characters to the game i. the first few weeks/months.
No
Still what I said. Doesn't matter who, how, or when you farm. 33%. The end.
Replies
Try this thread out for size, while he doesn’t start on day one (but it is early, and all laid out) every bit of data you could ask for is there, it is even slow roll 5 attempts per day.
https://forums.galaxy-of-heroes.starwars.ea.com/discussion/213406/shaak-ti-shard-farming-253-755-33-5-7-update-bonus-droideka-xanadu-and-b1/p1
I was wrong. @dcbfan you have obviously made up your mind that things are as you describe. You’ve gathered evidence (a very small set of evidence at that) and have decided that it fits an ever-changing narrative that you’re creating and adjusting on the fly.
Just yesterday I noted my pleasant surprise that I’d earned 91 Chewpio shards off the 215 attempts I’ve made (10 a day, plus I managed 5 the day he arrived on his node). That’s 42%+. But of course you’ll dismiss that because I “pay” for refreshes (even though I’ve not spent a dime on this game for 6 months).
As ever, it’s a case of confirmation bias with a dash of persecution complex thrown in for good measure.
So, you're saying that spending 25 or 50 crystals to refresh a hard node makes you a P2P player? For real?
By your definition of F2P I believe SWGoH is purely P2P.
This is on 2x refreshes, but only on days I can afford it. Granted I didn't fully track drop rates on them, it doesn't yield rates.
One of the two hypothesis is out of the door. Refreshes doesn't make it better only if you spent (or better, the more you spent).
The way statistics work with a 33% rate is that you can have 1 guy have a final drop rate of 50% and the other have 10%. You are just having bad luck.
If you don't win the lottery with your first 10 tries doesn't mean they rigged the win chances.
As for your comparison to old toons.
If you enter 2 lotteries and you win one of them, does that mean the other automatically has la lower win chance? nope, you got lucky in one and unlucky in the other
Just know that RNG is always a factor and you can get good and bad luck. If you experience something personal on such a small scale it absolutely does not make it fact
If you add up all the numbers you posted you get 131 shards with 411 attempts, which is...... 31.87%
Surprise! Math works!
I think his explanation is that when you spwnd crystals on refreshes the drop rate is changed for subsequent sims. He's accounting for this variable by farming without refreshes.
It's bunk, of course, but at least it's a rational way of testing for bunk! Like the time the guy meant to proce Aether existed and wound up proving it didn't.
Doesn't make much sense.
I buy refreshes with Crystals though so I'm not ftp by the OPs standards. Even though I have spent exactly $0 on this game ever.
Unfortunately you just dont seem to understand how the math works.
Attempts/ shards is completely independent of how many attempts you do in a day.
Refreshing (which by the way is not exclusive to players who pay) has nothing to do with the drop rate, as the drop rate has no dependance on the number of days you farm.
Also, just because math is great, technically if what you were saying was true, anyone who refreshed would actually have a worse drop rate than those who dont, and since I believe you are calling those who do not refresh "true F2P", you are suggesting they get the better deal, while trying to say they do not.
I used a sim ticket once, but it was a long time ago. Does that mean I'm not f2p?
(Also, does the game force you to sim at least once when you're getting started? Can't remember.)
Correct, you are not f2p, sorry.
Does that make me another dirty rotten P2P drop rate cheater?
Despicable. I bet you play on 4x speed too.
Probably not, that would just make you the most hipster P2P.
Fast to play.
And why am I getting much higher than you as f2p? I'm exclusively farming these 2 newest toons.
You're missing the point that you're wrong. All shards and blueprints drop at a 33% rate, full stop.
And? I'm talking about drop rates, not number of attempts.
@dcbfan please read this thread and revert back
For every farm regardless of how you do it and who you farm, yes.
If you flip a coin twice, it doesn't alternate heads/tails. HTH. Please don't argue math if you don't understand what "statistically significant sample size" and "variance" are. Also, don't ever play poker for money.
In game guild: TNR Uprising
I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
*This space left intentionally blank*
No
Still what I said. Doesn't matter who, how, or when you farm. 33%. The end.