New Character shard drop rates

Replies

  • dcbfan wrote: »
    TheJEFFtm wrote: »
    dcbfan wrote: »
    Again you all missing the point. In the first couple weeks/months the newer character drop rates are different the those that are older by a large amount. I could care less what the farm rate is for the total 6 month farm. I will even admit that all might be right with a 33% over 6 months. If your only getting a 15% drop rate those first couple weeks/months. Then the true drop rate isnt 33% that's just the average.
    TheJEFFtm wrote: »
    @dcbfan

    Try this thread out for size, while he doesn’t start on day one (but it is early, and all laid out) every bit of data you could ask for is there, it is even slow roll 5 attempts per day.

    https://forums.galaxy-of-heroes.starwars.ea.com/discussion/213406/shaak-ti-shard-farming-253-755-33-5-7-update-bonus-droideka-xanadu-and-b1/p1

    @dcbfan please read this thread and revert back

    You are correct this player got the 33% on older characters. Shaak Ti was almost a year old when he finished farming. Battle droid same. Xanadu was more then 2 years old. With the drop rates this person got they didnt farm on day 1 or even close to it for these characters.

    Pics are more than words. That's data from first 12 days of farming which started right away as character got released.

    13kbk7726hwb.png
    rvbngmuyoqtl.png
    96z5gytvjo0q.png
  • TVF
    36527 posts Member
    ^38%

    CG raises drop rates for new toons confirmed.
    I need a new message here. https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • dcbfan wrote: »
    TVF wrote: »
    ^38%

    CG raises drop rates for new toons confirmed.

    Look again Shaak Ti was out for 5 weeks before he started farming. Plus his dates are estimated. Videos on YouTube at beginning of June 2019 showing Shaak Ti and clone beating Nightsisters. NOT NEW CHARACTERS! NOT FARMED DAY 1!
    I’m on 42% for Chewpio. (92 / 215 attempts)

    Explain that, please?
  • dcbfan wrote: »
    TVF wrote: »
    ^38%

    CG raises drop rates for new toons confirmed.

    Look again Shaak Ti was out for 5 weeks before he started farming. Plus his dates are estimated. Videos on YouTube at beginning of June 2019 showing Shaak Ti and clone beating Nightsisters. NOT NEW CHARACTERS! NOT FARMED DAY 1!

    Wow, some people are stuck in denial. The release date is from swgohevents which has the exact dates of all previous events. There's a 4 day interval past the first farming date+12 days the observation. Only @EventineElessedil knows why, but this all took place within the first 16 days the toon was farmable.

    Ofc ppl will have shaak before, remember there is such a thing as buying a toon from packs and farming from shipments.
  • As I said earlier, you’ve already decided what you think is going on.

    All evidence posted to the contrary you will dismiss for increasingly facetious reasons. The dismissal of anyone who spends crystals on refreshes is one of the most laughable suggestions I’ve seen in one of these threads.

  • @dcbfan
    As you received the Traya treatment and are isolated with your theory, you'll have to prove it on your own. See you next year when you'll have more data that you'll collect when more toons will be farmable.

    I guess we'll see then if your theory is worth pursuing with more data or if everybody else is right. But for now, you don't have enough data to disprove the work done before you.
  • I’m almost tempted to farm Piett at 5 a day, no refresh, when he hits a node next week, to get some data.

    I won’t though, as it is manifestly better value to do 10 a day, and I’m not slowing down a farm to try to prove something to someone who will likely dismiss my data because I have a Disney+ subscription.
  • I’m almost tempted to farm Piett at 5 a day, no refresh, when he hits a node next week, to get some data.

    I won’t though, as it is manifestly better value to do 10 a day, and I’m not slowing down a farm to try to prove something to someone who will likely dismiss my data because I have a Disney+ subscription.

    Screw it, I'll do it. It won't shut this guy up, but I'll do it. What else have I got going on during this pandemic? Besides, I don't do refreshes anyway. I'l just pause Sith Empire Trooper for science. Or Mandolorian if it's a fleet node, come to think of it.
    Ceterum censeo Patientia esse meliat.
  • scuba
    14034 posts Member
    I’m almost tempted to farm Piett at 5 a day, no refresh, when he hits a node next week, to get some data.

    I won’t though, as it is manifestly better value to do 10 a day, and I’m not slowing down a farm to try to prove something to someone who will likely dismiss my data because I have a Disney+ subscription.

    It won't matter. Data like that has already been given and ignored so op can keep ranting about some craziness that he/she/it perceives as truth.
  • dcbfan wrote: »
    MaruMaru wrote: »
    dcbfan wrote: »
    Again you all missing the point. In the first couple weeks/months the newer character drop rates are different the those that are older by a large amount. I could care less what the farm rate is for the total 6 month farm. I will even admit that all might be right with a 33% over 6 months. If your only getting a 15% drop rate those first couple weeks/months. Then the true drop rate isnt 33% that's just the average.

    And why am I getting much higher than you as f2p? I'm exclusively farming these 2 newest toons.

    Because you are spending Crystal's. The more you spend the more CG awards you with more shardsl

    Regarding this... you never answered my question.

    I get 525 crystals for free per day and use those crystals, why is that not free to play?
  • OP has it all wrong. It’s not old vs new. It’s humans vs aliens. CG gives better drop rates to aliens and droids. That’s my theory and I’m sticking to it regardless of whatever arguments to the contrary are given.
  • Calo_Nord wrote: »
    OP has it all wrong. It’s not old vs new. It’s humans vs aliens. CG gives better drop rates to aliens and droids. That’s my theory and I’m sticking to it regardless of whatever arguments to the contrary are given.

    Mandatory insertion
    s9ukp8g38kq2.jpg
  • EventineElessedil
    6171 posts Member
    edited October 2020
    MaruMaru wrote: »
    Pics are more than words. That's data from first 12 days of farming which started right away as character got released.

    13kbk7726hwb.png
    rvbngmuyoqtl.png
    96z5gytvjo0q.png

    lol at this guy still banging on about his perceived truth. A basic understanding of random distributions and statistics is required to have a decent discussion about this, and OP has shown they do not have these tools at their disposal. That's okay, not everybody does. A couple of classes should fix that.

    I farmed Shaak Ti FTP. I bought some refreshes during 2X drops, SUE ME.

    OP wants to farm a newly-available character WITHOUT refreshes to prove their point, but by the time they are done the character will already be "old" by their own definition so their theory is inherently impossible to prove.

    Carry on, I am out of this discussion and this game (mostly), it's been a great ride.
  • dcbfan wrote: »
    TheJEFFtm wrote: »
    dcbfan wrote: »
    Again you all missing the point. In the first couple weeks/months the newer character drop rates are different the those that are older by a large amount. I could care less what the farm rate is for the total 6 month farm. I will even admit that all might be right with a 33% over 6 months. If your only getting a 15% drop rate those first couple weeks/months. Then the true drop rate isnt 33% that's just the average.
    TheJEFFtm wrote: »
    @dcbfan

    Try this thread out for size, while he doesn’t start on day one (but it is early, and all laid out) every bit of data you could ask for is there, it is even slow roll 5 attempts per day.

    https://forums.galaxy-of-heroes.starwars.ea.com/discussion/213406/shaak-ti-shard-farming-253-755-33-5-7-update-bonus-droideka-xanadu-and-b1/p1

    @dcbfan please read this thread and revert back

    You are correct this player got the 33% on older characters. Shaak Ti was almost a year old when he finished farming. Battle droid same. Xanadu was more then 2 years old. With the drop rates this person got they didnt farm on day 1 or even close to it for these characters.

    Looks as if others have mentioned as well - but this is a post from September (with the farm already underway), Shaak ti was released to her farming node on the 23rd of august. How much newer do you want?

    https://devtrackers.gg/swgoh/p/cea29138-content-update-8-23-2019
  • I'd suggest a different sort of hands-on activity for the OP. It's really straightforward to simulate this stuff. And, much faster than collecting data too! Fire up a python REPL:

    >>>import numpy as np
    >>>prng = np.random.default_rng(seed=1138)
    >>>prng.binomial(30, 1/3)
    10
    >>>prng.binomial(30, 1/3)
    10
    >>>prng.binomial(30, 1/3)
    13
    >>>prng.binomial(30, 1/3)
    7
    >>>np.min(prng.binomial(30, 1/3, size=1000))
    3

    The seed is for replicability but if deterministic randomness freaks you out you can drop the seed. (Technically, it's still deterministic rng under the hood unless you use something like RDRAND but you just won't know what the seed is).

    Here you KNOW the "drop rate" is 1/3. It's really impossible to debate that. You programmed it. You also control the number of trials (30 in this example) so you can mess around with "new" vs "old" to your heart's content. Here's one interpretation of that last line in the context of the game e.g. 1000 people farm a new character (completely f2p!) and at least one of them was unlucky enough to only draw 3 shards out of 30 attempts. That doesn't mean the unlucky person experienced a different drop rate though. Remember you programmed the rate at 1/3.

    Here's the thing though with any 0< p < 1, it's theoretically possible to draw any number (eg 0, 1, 2, ... , 30) with 30 trials. So showing a particular draw is possible doesn't prove anything about the drop rate, which is kind of like what the OP is doing. We've already beaten to death what it takes to determine the real drop rate when it's unknown but this activity should at least help clear up some misconceptions about how probability works and in particular how a drop rate of 1/3 works.
  • Nikoms565
    14242 posts Member
    edited October 2020
    Calo, brah. At least warn us before you conduct a math class/coding class in the middle of the thread.

    (Good work though....although I'm getting a little woozy from the high school flashback)
    In game name: Lucas Gregory FORMER PLAYER - - - -"Whale blah grump poooop." - Ouchie

    In game guild: TNR Uprising
    I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
    *This space left intentionally blank*
  • Nikoms565 wrote: »
    Calo, brah. At least warn us before you conduct a math class/coding class in the middle of the thread.

    (Good work though....although I'm getting a little woozy from the high school flashback)

    Just trying to help the OP out. Like you said a high school student can do this stuff. It's not like it takes a PhD to understand what's going on here.
  • crzydroid
    7254 posts Moderator
    In case you don't want to program things yourself, here are the binomial probabilities for 5 attempts at 33% drop rate (rounded):

    0 shards - 13.5%
    1 shard - 33.2%
    2 shards - 32.8%
    3 shards - 16.1%
    4 shards - 4%
    5 shards - 0.4%

    For 30 attempts, grouped into ranges because I don't feel like typing out 30 percentages:

    0-4: 1.3%
    5-9: 43.3%
    10-14: 51.3%
    15-19: 4%
    20-30: 0.02%

    So if 1,000 people have simmed this node 5 at a time 6 times, 13 will have 0-4 shards to show for it. Sorry OP is one of the unlucky 13.
  • Nikoms565
    14242 posts Member
    crzydroid wrote: »
    In case you don't want to program things yourself, here are the binomial probabilities for 5 attempts at 33% drop rate (rounded):

    0 shards - 13.5%
    1 shard - 33.2%
    2 shards - 32.8%
    3 shards - 16.1%
    4 shards - 4%
    5 shards - 0.4%

    For 30 attempts, grouped into ranges because I don't feel like typing out 30 percentages:

    0-4: 1.3%
    5-9: 43.3%
    10-14: 51.3%
    15-19: 4%
    20-30: 0.02%

    So if 1,000 people have simmed this node 5 at a time 6 times, 13 will have 0-4 shards to show for it. Sorry OP is one of the unlucky 13.

    I think it's also worth noting that almost 45% of the people will have less than 10 shards after 30 attempts. So almost half the people will "feel" like they have a lower drop rate.
    In game name: Lucas Gregory FORMER PLAYER - - - -"Whale blah grump poooop." - Ouchie

    In game guild: TNR Uprising
    I beat the REAL T7 Yoda (not the nerfed one) and did so before mods were there to help
    *This space left intentionally blank*
  • TVF
    36527 posts Member
    Has he used any sin tickets yet though
    I need a new message here. https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • dcbfan wrote: »
    NicWester wrote: »
    I’m almost tempted to farm Piett at 5 a day, no refresh, when he hits a node next week, to get some data.

    I won’t though, as it is manifestly better value to do 10 a day, and I’m not slowing down a farm to try to prove something to someone who will likely dismiss my data because I have a Disney+ subscription.

    Screw it, I'll do it. It won't shut this guy up, but I'll do it. What else have I got going on during this pandemic? Besides, I don't do refreshes anyway. I'l just pause Sith Empire Trooper for science. Or Mandolorian if it's a fleet node, come to think of it.

    Hey from the start I said I would track the data honestly. I will track my next 6 F2P characters. I say my next 6 F2P characters because we all have our farming priorities. Mine isnt Empire right now. Checking my theory as I go. All data in 2 week intervals will be broke down into numbers. If wrong that %'s start low and go up each 2 week period. I will gladly admit that I was wrong. I'm trying this because most players dont get 575 Crystal's a day and rely on people's data that says they get 33% chance at a shard. They can only do 5 attempts a per day. I still believe it's an average over the entire farm. Increasing in % the older the character gets.

    On a personal note: I started this cause my 8 yr old grandson asked me about it. He is new to the game and totally F2P. He is less then 8 months in the game and has farmed 4 older characters to 7 * in the same time he farm 3 newer characters to only 5 *.

    I started this post (1) to see the data out there and (2) to track my own data. Always intending to track my own data and also the data of 2 friends in game. So just chill out, make this a teaching moment. Both of us are interested in the out come. It's called a theory! Will be glad to include your data also.

    Dude you still don’t get it. Let me rephrase what you just said. Go out and buy a brand new 6-sided die. Every day roll it 5 times and record a “success” each time you roll a 1 or 2. Track this in two week intervals. Your theory is the probability of success increases as the die gets older. And by your reasoning the data will most likely support that theory. But you do realize how absurd that sounds, right?
  • TVF wrote: »
    Has he used any sin tickets yet though

    The proper word is "Indulgence".

  • MaruMaru wrote: »
    Pics are more than words. That's data from first 12 days of farming which started right away as character got released.

    13kbk7726hwb.png
    rvbngmuyoqtl.png
    96z5gytvjo0q.png

    lol at this guy still banging on about his perceived truth. A basic understanding of random distributions and statistics is required to have a decent discussion about this, and OP has shown they do not have these tools at their disposal. That's okay, not everybody does. A couple of classes should fix that.

    I farmed Shaak Ti FTP. I bought some refreshes during 2X drops, SUE ME.

    OP wants to farm a newly-available character WITHOUT refreshes to prove their point, but by the time they are done the character will already be "old" by their own definition so their theory is inherently impossible to prove.

    Carry on, I am out of this discussion and this game (mostly), it's been a great ride.

    Awwww! You were a great contributor with a level headed approach. Sorry to lose you.
  • dcbfan wrote: »

    I started this post (1) to see the data out there and (2) to track my own data. Always intending to track my own data and also the data of 2 friends in game. So just chill out, make this a teaching moment. Both of us are interested in the out come. It's called a theory! Will be glad to include your data also.

    You didn't start the thread for this, let's not retroactively write history. You were convinced later on there was no way to convince anyone on your perceptions which still persist since you don't have a null hypothesis.

    It's called a hypothesis btw, theory is something with highest provability that has already been supported by the data. -Laws- are still theories. What @TVF said a few posts earlier is a theory, because it has been verified by vast amount of parties. Nice to hear you will keep on tracking though.

  • Kyno
    32087 posts Moderator
    dcbfan wrote: »
    Again you all missing the point. In the first couple weeks/months the newer character drop rates are different the those that are older by a large amount. I could care less what the farm rate is for the total 6 month farm. I will even admit that all might be right with a 33% over 6 months. If your only getting a 15% drop rate those first couple weeks/months. Then the true drop rate isnt 33% that's just the average.

    No you are missing the point, that is not how it works, and that is not how math works.

    If they did this then the end drop rate people see would need to be much higher than 33%, or no one would get 33% as the drop rate.

    If they drop at 15% for the first month of a farm, and then raise it to something that balances it out for someone who started then in the first month to give them 33%, the rate would have to be higher for someone to then get 33%. So anyone who started in the second month would have a high than 33% drop rate, or the people who start farming right away would never produce a 33% drop rate.

    But since both players that start the farm immediately and those that start later have both produced 33%, this is mathematically impossible.
  • scuba
    14034 posts Member
    dcbfan wrote: »
    NicWester wrote: »
    I’m almost tempted to farm Piett at 5 a day, no refresh, when he hits a node next week, to get some data.

    I won’t though, as it is manifestly better value to do 10 a day, and I’m not slowing down a farm to try to prove something to someone who will likely dismiss my data because I have a Disney+ subscription.

    Screw it, I'll do it. It won't shut this guy up, but I'll do it. What else have I got going on during this pandemic? Besides, I don't do refreshes anyway. I'l just pause Sith Empire Trooper for science. Or Mandolorian if it's a fleet node, come to think of it.

    Hey from the start I said I would track the data honestly. I will track my next 6 F2P characters. I say my next 6 F2P characters because we all have our farming priorities. Mine isnt Empire right now. Checking my theory as I go. All data in 2 week intervals will be broke down into numbers. If wrong that %'s start low and go up each 2 week period. I will gladly admit that I was wrong. I'm trying this because most players dont get 575 Crystal's a day and rely on people's data that says they get 33% chance at a shard. They can only do 5 attempts a per day. I still believe it's an average over the entire farm. Increasing in % the older the character gets.

    On a personal note: I started this cause my 8 yr old grandson asked me about it. He is new to the game and totally F2P. He is less then 8 months in the game and has farmed 4 older characters to 7 * in the same time he farm 3 newer characters to only 5 *.

    I started this post (1) to see the data out there and (2) to track my own data. Always intending to track my own data and also the data of 2 friends in game. So just chill out, make this a teaching moment. Both of us are interested in the out come. It's called a theory! Will be glad to include your data also.

    Which "old" characters? Many of the original characters you get shards in many different places other than just node farming, GW, Brozium packs, assault battles etc. These other places will speed up the farming of some older characters.
  • TVF
    36527 posts Member
    Starslayer wrote: »
    TVF wrote: »
    Has he used any sin tickets yet though

    The proper word is "Indulgence".

    I saw that typo and decided to leave it in lol.
    I need a new message here. https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
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