1. The drop rate is lower for new characters but if you buy refreshes they change it back up.
I don't think the op actually believes this. If that was the case, and he actually believed this, that would make the 25 crystals for a node refresh and the 50 for an energy refresh more valuable if it makes CG rise the drop rates for you. If the op actually believed this, he would be refreshing nodes since it would change the drop rate from the 15% he claims to 33%.
2. The op has formed his hypothesis in a way that it is nearly impossible to prove. If you only farm with no refreshes, the character is "old" before you can draw a statically significant amount of data. If you refresh to get data quicker. Then the op says that invalidates the test.
The only way to test this is to have several players all slow farm the new characters and aggregate the data. With the new characters right now being GL requirements, that is unlikely.
Or he can track his data for years and if the first month of farming a character always has bad drop rates that could prove his hypothesis. However, you'd need to do this for dozens of new characters for it to even begin to approach significant data.
But then the op would come up with another reason that the data is invalid if he was proven wrong.
Look again Shaak Ti was out for 5 weeks before he started farming. Plus his dates are estimated. Videos on YouTube at beginning of June 2019 showing Shaak Ti and clone beating Nightsisters. NOT NEW CHARACTERS! NOT FARMED DAY 1!
*eye roll*
1) There are zero estimated dates. There are recorded drops and dates on posts.
2) One CANNOT farm brand new marquee characters FTP until they hit a farmable node. Prior to that, you must spend about $300 in crystals to get them from packs. This claim has zero merit.
So if 1,000 people have simmed this node 5 at a time 6 times, 13 will have 0-4 shards to show for it. Sorry OP is one of the unlucky 13.
The bit I like best about this is that my Shaak Ti drops look VEEEERY similar to these predictions! With larger sample sizes, I am sure it would all fall into place.
Wow, some people are stuck in denial. The release date is from swgohevents which has the exact dates of all previous events. There's a 4 day interval past the first farming date+12 days the observation. Only @EventineElessedil knows why, but this all took place within the first 16 days the toon was farmable.
Maybe I did not want Shaak right away. Maybe I did not start until I realized she was needed for GAS. Maybe I was finishing another farm first. Maybe accurately tracking farm data is a big commitment and I only decided to do it after seeing so many people moaning about it. Any way, the reason is irrelevant, the data is important and it was collected not long after she became FTP farmable.
And I do not know exactly what OP is going on about with this arbitrary 2-week interval thing, but any such trickery would show up quite blatantly in the 5-pt moving average on this chart, but there is no such evidence.
One could easily use a 14-pt average if they wished but including more points in the index just flattens it out, collapsing toward the overall average.
Ok, now I am REALLY done! Or am I? It's that whole FREE WILL thing, you know.
One of the longest debates in the community has always been various theories around droprates. We are experimentally capable of showcasing the droprates are flat and deduce them with thresholds.
Can we possibly get a dev statement making us sure that they are flat across the board, no -time on map for new toons- changes, no -last few shards lower droprates- and no EA patent that actively changes drop rates is used in this game . This would help everyone wasting their time tin foil arguments.
they have commented that there is no variable drop rate changes and its always been fixed regardless of how new or old toon is
People have ignored those dev comments in the past, and they will again if Doja reafffirms that statement
Its 33%
Still think a renewal and clarity post would go a long way.
They didnt and will not confirm the rate, all they stated was that it's not variable.
I dont think we need that renewed or clarified. This has been clarified and confirmed multiple times.
If you read carefully I said nothing of the sorts, not the droprates themselves. Rest is just your opinion.
The first part was just an FYI.
Since you are asking for it to be "renewed", that kind of proves the point it doesnt do anything to say it again, as every so often someone will just decide they need it said again, rather than just believe what was already said.
To me it seems like it their time would be better served advocating for the player base and getting "new" or recent information out there.
they have commented that there is no variable drop rate changes and its always been fixed regardless of how new or old toon is
People have ignored those dev comments in the past, and they will again if Doja reafffirms that statement
Its 33%
Still think a renewal and clarity post would go a long way.
They didnt and will not confirm the rate, all they stated was that it's not variable.
I dont think we need that renewed or clarified. This has been clarified and confirmed multiple times.
If you read carefully I said nothing of the sorts, not the droprates themselves. Rest is just your opinion.
The first part was just an FYI.
Since you are asking for it to be "renewed", that kind of proves the point it doesnt do anything to say it again, as every so often someone will just decide they need it said again, rather than just believe what was already said.
To me it seems like it their time would be better served advocating for the player base and getting "new" or recent information out there.
It does, because the community has a renewed trust to a certain new person in the team. As you know pretty well this is not about logic but people's feelings things are a certain way.
they have commented that there is no variable drop rate changes and its always been fixed regardless of how new or old toon is
People have ignored those dev comments in the past, and they will again if Doja reafffirms that statement
Its 33%
Still think a renewal and clarity post would go a long way.
They didnt and will not confirm the rate, all they stated was that it's not variable.
I dont think we need that renewed or clarified. This has been clarified and confirmed multiple times.
If you read carefully I said nothing of the sorts, not the droprates themselves. Rest is just your opinion.
The first part was just an FYI.
Since you are asking for it to be "renewed", that kind of proves the point it doesnt do anything to say it again, as every so often someone will just decide they need it said again, rather than just believe what was already said.
To me it seems like it their time would be better served advocating for the player base and getting "new" or recent information out there.
It does, because the community has a renewed trust to a certain new person in the team. As you know pretty well this is not about logic but people's feelings things are a certain way.
they have commented that there is no variable drop rate changes and its always been fixed regardless of how new or old toon is
People have ignored those dev comments in the past, and they will again if Doja reafffirms that statement
Its 33%
Still think a renewal and clarity post would go a long way.
They didnt and will not confirm the rate, all they stated was that it's not variable.
I dont think we need that renewed or clarified. This has been clarified and confirmed multiple times.
If you read carefully I said nothing of the sorts, not the droprates themselves. Rest is just your opinion.
The first part was just an FYI.
Since you are asking for it to be "renewed", that kind of proves the point it doesnt do anything to say it again, as every so often someone will just decide they need it said again, rather than just believe what was already said.
To me it seems like it their time would be better served advocating for the player base and getting "new" or recent information out there.
It does, because the community has a renewed trust to a certain new person in the team. As you know pretty well this is not about logic but people's feelings things are a certain way.
Facts dont change on beliefs or feelings.
Doesn't matter, human mind is fallacious. Dev statements always go a long way.
they have commented that there is no variable drop rate changes and its always been fixed regardless of how new or old toon is
People have ignored those dev comments in the past, and they will again if Doja reafffirms that statement
Its 33%
Still think a renewal and clarity post would go a long way.
They didnt and will not confirm the rate, all they stated was that it's not variable.
I dont think we need that renewed or clarified. This has been clarified and confirmed multiple times.
If you read carefully I said nothing of the sorts, not the droprates themselves. Rest is just your opinion.
The first part was just an FYI.
Since you are asking for it to be "renewed", that kind of proves the point it doesnt do anything to say it again, as every so often someone will just decide they need it said again, rather than just believe what was already said.
To me it seems like it their time would be better served advocating for the player base and getting "new" or recent information out there.
It does, because the community has a renewed trust to a certain new person in the team. As you know pretty well this is not about logic but people's feelings things are a certain way.
Facts dont change on beliefs or feelings.
Doesn't matter, human mind is fallacious. Dev statements always go a long way.
Yes, which is why they made one, but now it doesn't go long enough?
they have commented that there is no variable drop rate changes and its always been fixed regardless of how new or old toon is
People have ignored those dev comments in the past, and they will again if Doja reafffirms that statement
Its 33%
Still think a renewal and clarity post would go a long way.
They didnt and will not confirm the rate, all they stated was that it's not variable.
I dont think we need that renewed or clarified. This has been clarified and confirmed multiple times.
If you read carefully I said nothing of the sorts, not the droprates themselves. Rest is just your opinion.
The first part was just an FYI.
Since you are asking for it to be "renewed", that kind of proves the point it doesnt do anything to say it again, as every so often someone will just decide they need it said again, rather than just believe what was already said.
To me it seems like it their time would be better served advocating for the player base and getting "new" or recent information out there.
It does, because the community has a renewed trust to a certain new person in the team. As you know pretty well this is not about logic but people's feelings things are a certain way.
Facts dont change on beliefs or feelings.
Doesn't matter, human mind is fallacious. Dev statements always go a long way.
Yes, which is why they made one, but now it doesn't go long enough?
they have commented that there is no variable drop rate changes and its always been fixed regardless of how new or old toon is
People have ignored those dev comments in the past, and they will again if Doja reafffirms that statement
Its 33%
Still think a renewal and clarity post would go a long way.
They didnt and will not confirm the rate, all they stated was that it's not variable.
I dont think we need that renewed or clarified. This has been clarified and confirmed multiple times.
If you read carefully I said nothing of the sorts, not the droprates themselves. Rest is just your opinion.
The first part was just an FYI.
Since you are asking for it to be "renewed", that kind of proves the point it doesnt do anything to say it again, as every so often someone will just decide they need it said again, rather than just believe what was already said.
To me it seems like it their time would be better served advocating for the player base and getting "new" or recent information out there.
It does, because the community has a renewed trust to a certain new person in the team. As you know pretty well this is not about logic but people's feelings things are a certain way.
Facts dont change on beliefs or feelings.
Doesn't matter, human mind is fallacious. Dev statements always go a long way.
Yes, which is why they made one, but now it doesn't go long enough?
Glad that you got it lol.
I'm pretty sure that's not how facts work.... its the nice things about facts.
they have commented that there is no variable drop rate changes and its always been fixed regardless of how new or old toon is
People have ignored those dev comments in the past, and they will again if Doja reafffirms that statement
Its 33%
Still think a renewal and clarity post would go a long way.
They didnt and will not confirm the rate, all they stated was that it's not variable.
I dont think we need that renewed or clarified. This has been clarified and confirmed multiple times.
If you read carefully I said nothing of the sorts, not the droprates themselves. Rest is just your opinion.
The first part was just an FYI.
Since you are asking for it to be "renewed", that kind of proves the point it doesnt do anything to say it again, as every so often someone will just decide they need it said again, rather than just believe what was already said.
To me it seems like it their time would be better served advocating for the player base and getting "new" or recent information out there.
It does, because the community has a renewed trust to a certain new person in the team. As you know pretty well this is not about logic but people's feelings things are a certain way.
Facts dont change on beliefs or feelings.
Doesn't matter, human mind is fallacious. Dev statements always go a long way.
Yes, which is why they made one, but now it doesn't go long enough?
Glad that you got it lol.
I'm pretty sure that's not how facts work.... its the nice things about facts.
We have gotten Greef & Cara shards from the GC a couple of times.
Apart from that, everything you see is from 100% from farming, each toon, five times per day.
they have commented that there is no variable drop rate changes and its always been fixed regardless of how new or old toon is
People have ignored those dev comments in the past, and they will again if Doja reafffirms that statement
Its 33%
Still think a renewal and clarity post would go a long way.
They didnt and will not confirm the rate, all they stated was that it's not variable.
I dont think we need that renewed or clarified. This has been clarified and confirmed multiple times.
If you read carefully I said nothing of the sorts, not the droprates themselves. Rest is just your opinion.
The first part was just an FYI.
Since you are asking for it to be "renewed", that kind of proves the point it doesnt do anything to say it again, as every so often someone will just decide they need it said again, rather than just believe what was already said.
To me it seems like it their time would be better served advocating for the player base and getting "new" or recent information out there.
Stuff like this is why the forum needs a FAQ section with answers like this. Instead for someone to find that dev comment would have to do crazy searches.
We definitely have FAQ in the community all the time over the precieved variable drop rate, GC drop rate, why this, why that that, will the old shipments get new characters added etc.
Most of these have a CG answer somewhere in the forum, and always get asked over and over again.
Sorry to detail. I have asked/suggested many times since the game started.
Deaf ears it has fallen on.
It doesn't even have to be a dev controled section. Mods could maintain it by quoting and linking to answers the devs provide.
Edit; detail ?!?!? Darn Autocorrect. Meant sorry to derail
Sorry to detail. I have asked/suggested many times since the game started.
Deaf ears it has fallen on.
It doesn't even have to be a dev controled section. Modsscuba could maintain it by quoting and linking to answers the devs provide.
Sorry to detail. I have asked/suggested many times since the game started.
Deaf ears it has fallen on.
It doesn't even have to be a dev controled section. Modsscuba could maintain it by quoting and linking to answers the devs provide.
Fix it for you. Haha.
I will talk this over with the team.
Lol. I am not allowed to be a mod or at least it wouldn't last long
Replies
And I thank you for that ! I'm so proud of this joke that I might need a sin ticket for hubris pretty soon.
Too bad we must keep things PG, it deserves its own "off topic" post (Sinning challenge comes to mind).
1. The drop rate is lower for new characters but if you buy refreshes they change it back up.
I don't think the op actually believes this. If that was the case, and he actually believed this, that would make the 25 crystals for a node refresh and the 50 for an energy refresh more valuable if it makes CG rise the drop rates for you. If the op actually believed this, he would be refreshing nodes since it would change the drop rate from the 15% he claims to 33%.
2. The op has formed his hypothesis in a way that it is nearly impossible to prove. If you only farm with no refreshes, the character is "old" before you can draw a statically significant amount of data. If you refresh to get data quicker. Then the op says that invalidates the test.
The only way to test this is to have several players all slow farm the new characters and aggregate the data. With the new characters right now being GL requirements, that is unlikely.
Or he can track his data for years and if the first month of farming a character always has bad drop rates that could prove his hypothesis. However, you'd need to do this for dozens of new characters for it to even begin to approach significant data.
But then the op would come up with another reason that the data is invalid if he was proven wrong.
1) There are zero estimated dates. There are recorded drops and dates on posts.
2) One CANNOT farm brand new marquee characters FTP until they hit a farmable node. Prior to that, you must spend about $300 in crystals to get them from packs. This claim has zero merit.
The bit I like best about this is that my Shaak Ti drops look VEEEERY similar to these predictions! With larger sample sizes, I am sure it would all fall into place.
Maybe I did not want Shaak right away. Maybe I did not start until I realized she was needed for GAS. Maybe I was finishing another farm first. Maybe accurately tracking farm data is a big commitment and I only decided to do it after seeing so many people moaning about it. Any way, the reason is irrelevant, the data is important and it was collected not long after she became FTP farmable.
And I do not know exactly what OP is going on about with this arbitrary 2-week interval thing, but any such trickery would show up quite blatantly in the 5-pt moving average on this chart, but there is no such evidence.
One could easily use a 14-pt average if they wished but including more points in the index just flattens it out, collapsing toward the overall average.
Ok, now I am REALLY done! Or am I? It's that whole FREE WILL thing, you know.
F2p, inconsistent 2 refills per day for rebels.
@CG_Doja_Fett
One of the longest debates in the community has always been various theories around droprates. We are experimentally capable of showcasing the droprates are flat and deduce them with thresholds.
Can we possibly get a dev statement making us sure that they are flat across the board, no -time on map for new toons- changes, no -last few shards lower droprates- and no EA patent that actively changes drop rates is used in this game . This would help everyone wasting their time tin foil arguments.
People have ignored those dev comments in the past, and they will again if Doja reafffirms that statement
Its 33%
Still think a renewal and clarity post would go a long way.
They didnt and will not confirm the rate, all they stated was that it's not variable.
I dont think we need that renewed or clarified. This has been clarified and confirmed multiple times.
If you read carefully I said nothing of the sorts, not the droprates themselves. Rest is just your opinion.
The first part was just an FYI.
Since you are asking for it to be "renewed", that kind of proves the point it doesnt do anything to say it again, as every so often someone will just decide they need it said again, rather than just believe what was already said.
To me it seems like it their time would be better served advocating for the player base and getting "new" or recent information out there.
It does, because the community has a renewed trust to a certain new person in the team. As you know pretty well this is not about logic but people's feelings things are a certain way.
Facts dont change on beliefs or feelings.
Doesn't matter, human mind is fallacious. Dev statements always go a long way.
Yes, which is why they made one, but now it doesn't go long enough?
Glad that you got it lol.
I'm pretty sure that's not how facts work.... its the nice things about facts.
"that"?
We have gotten Greef & Cara shards from the GC a couple of times.
Apart from that, everything you see is from 100% from farming, each toon, five times per day.
Stuff like this is why the forum needs a FAQ section with answers like this. Instead for someone to find that dev comment would have to do crazy searches.
We definitely have FAQ in the community all the time over the precieved variable drop rate, GC drop rate, why this, why that that, will the old shipments get new characters added etc.
Most of these have a CG answer somewhere in the forum, and always get asked over and over again.
I must have missed that.
Sorry to detail. I have asked/suggested many times since the game started.
Deaf ears it has fallen on.
It doesn't even have to be a dev controled section. Mods could maintain it by quoting and linking to answers the devs provide.
Edit; detail ?!?!? Darn Autocorrect. Meant sorry to derail
Fix it for you. Haha.
I will talk this over with the team.
Lol. I am not allowed to be a mod or at least it wouldn't last long
You're selling yourself short. You could be a 3-dot mod, maybe even a green one. I myself am only a 2-dot mod, but take pride in my purple color.