Shard Economy Changes [MEGA]

Replies

  • TVF
    36861 posts Member
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    TVF wrote: »
    So do we know what the current probability is for a full toon drop? Based on the amount of stuff in the bronziums I can't imagine it's very high.

    So while I appreciate the gesture by CG, not really sure this is going to have a noticeable impact.

    It’s not supposed to make an impact, it’s to maintain status quo

    So then what's the big deal?
    I barely even get the 10 shard full toon drops as it was.

    The value of those drops was cut in half, instead of doubling the shards that drop they are going to double the drop rate. It's fine.

    I understand that math around the values of the shards.

    My point is when I unload 25k ally points every few days and I don't receive any full toon drops for weeks at a time, then I can't see why people get bent out of shape when the impact is so minimal.

    Weeks at a time?

    Press X to doubt.

    Yeah buddy, sometimes it's weeks in between full toon drops

    Every time we get double drops we see a bunch of posts here and reddit with people showing their zero drops. It may not happen to you, but it does to others.

    I've never pulled a 230 or 330 shard drop from a marquee pack, there's other who have gotten those multiple times. And yes I've picked up more than one marquee pack.

    It's all random remember? As far as I know there's no way to control that randomness.

    That's not how it works friend.
    I need a new message here. https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • TVF
    36861 posts Member
    Options
    TVF wrote: »
    So do we know what the current probability is for a full toon drop? Based on the amount of stuff in the bronziums I can't imagine it's very high.

    So while I appreciate the gesture by CG, not really sure this is going to have a noticeable impact.

    It’s not supposed to make an impact, it’s to maintain status quo

    So then what's the big deal?
    I barely even get the 10 shard full toon drops as it was.

    The value of those drops was cut in half, instead of doubling the shards that drop they are going to double the drop rate. It's fine.

    I understand that math around the values of the shards.

    My point is when I unload 25k ally points every few days and I don't receive any full toon drops for weeks at a time, then I can't see why people get bent out of shape when the impact is so minimal.

    Weeks at a time?

    Press X to doubt.

    Yeah buddy, sometimes it's weeks in between full toon drops

    Every time we get double drops we see a bunch of posts here and reddit with people showing their zero drops. It may not happen to you, but it does to others.

    I've never pulled a 230 or 330 shard drop from a marquee pack, there's other who have gotten those multiple times. And yes I've picked up more than one marquee pack.

    It's all random remember? As far as I know there's no way to control that randomness.

    Actual data!

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vyTVQsqXo1HtlVzz-VOCFgisKD_Pis1QIFqAI4j6w5s/edit#gid=0

    1.9% drop rate on 2681 pulls. You said you do 25k every few days, let's say you do 50k a week.

    50,000 points / 250 per pull = 200 pulls x 1.9% = 3.8 full characters. You should get almost 4 full characters to drop each week on average.

    Possibility 1: You are amazingly lucky.
    Possibility 2: You are exaggerating like crazy.

    My money is on 2.
    I need a new message here. https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • TVF
    36861 posts Member
    Options
    edit: unlucky

    I dare not edit the post for fear of spam filter swallowing my work
    I need a new message here. https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • Kyno
    32087 posts Moderator
    Options
    TVF wrote: »
    So do we know what the current probability is for a full toon drop? Based on the amount of stuff in the bronziums I can't imagine it's very high.

    So while I appreciate the gesture by CG, not really sure this is going to have a noticeable impact.

    It’s not supposed to make an impact, it’s to maintain status quo

    So then what's the big deal?
    I barely even get the 10 shard full toon drops as it was.

    The value of those drops was cut in half, instead of doubling the shards that drop they are going to double the drop rate. It's fine.

    I understand that math around the values of the shards.

    My point is when I unload 25k ally points every few days and I don't receive any full toon drops for weeks at a time, then I can't see why people get bent out of shape when the impact is so minimal.

    Weeks at a time?

    Press X to doubt.

    Yeah buddy, sometimes it's weeks in between full toon drops

    Every time we get double drops we see a bunch of posts here and reddit with people showing their zero drops. It may not happen to you, but it does to others.

    I've never pulled a 230 or 330 shard drop from a marquee pack, there's other who have gotten those multiple times. And yes I've picked up more than one marquee pack.

    It's all random remember? As far as I know there's no way to control that randomness.

    double drops happen over short periods of time, small sample sizes are when those types of situations are going to happen.

    it would be interesting to see you collect some data on this to show what you are saying, but from all the bronzium pulls I have done leading up to this change, its hard to imagine going 50k without a full character, so from your numbers, that would be once a week. (I did a bunch of 50K pulls while showing the losses players could see)
  • TVF
    36861 posts Member
    Options
    @Kyno look right above your post lol
    I need a new message here. https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • Options
    TVF wrote: »
    edit: unlucky

    I dare not edit the post for fear of spam filter swallowing my work

    You can always select all and copy first. Then if it eats it, you can repost quickly
  • Kyno
    32087 posts Moderator
    Options
    TVF wrote: »
    edit: unlucky

    I dare not edit the post for fear of spam filter swallowing my work

    why8azacddk7.png
  • TVF
    36861 posts Member
    Options
    TVF wrote: »
    edit: unlucky

    I dare not edit the post for fear of spam filter swallowing my work

    You can always select all and copy first. Then if it eats it, you can repost quickly

    The spam filter is smarter than that. I have tried that exact thing and it ate the copy too.
    I need a new message here. https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • Options
    TVF wrote: »
    TVF wrote: »
    edit: unlucky

    I dare not edit the post for fear of spam filter swallowing my work

    You can always select all and copy first. Then if it eats it, you can repost quickly

    The spam filter is smarter than that. I have tried that exact thing and it ate the copy too.

    It has worked for me before.
  • TVF
    36861 posts Member
    Options
    TVF wrote: »
    TVF wrote: »
    edit: unlucky

    I dare not edit the post for fear of spam filter swallowing my work

    You can always select all and copy first. Then if it eats it, you can repost quickly

    The spam filter is smarter than that. I have tried that exact thing and it ate the copy too.

    It has worked for me before.

    Post your data.
    I need a new message here. https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • Options
    But yeah it is frustrating when you see a typo in a long post, then go to edit it only to see the whole post gone.
  • Options
    TVF wrote: »
    TVF wrote: »
    TVF wrote: »
    edit: unlucky

    I dare not edit the post for fear of spam filter swallowing my work

    You can always select all and copy first. Then if it eats it, you can repost quickly

    The spam filter is smarter than that. I have tried that exact thing and it ate the copy too.

    It has worked for me before.

    Post your data.

    I didn't take video at the time. Sorry.
  • Options
    TVF wrote: »
    So do we know what the current probability is for a full toon drop? Based on the amount of stuff in the bronziums I can't imagine it's very high.

    So while I appreciate the gesture by CG, not really sure this is going to have a noticeable impact.

    It’s not supposed to make an impact, it’s to maintain status quo

    So then what's the big deal?
    I barely even get the 10 shard full toon drops as it was.

    The value of those drops was cut in half, instead of doubling the shards that drop they are going to double the drop rate. It's fine.

    I understand that math around the values of the shards.

    My point is when I unload 25k ally points every few days and I don't receive any full toon drops for weeks at a time, then I can't see why people get bent out of shape when the impact is so minimal.

    Weeks at a time?

    Press X to doubt.

    Yeah buddy, sometimes it's weeks in between full toon drops

    Every time we get double drops we see a bunch of posts here and reddit with people showing their zero drops. It may not happen to you, but it does to others.

    I've never pulled a 230 or 330 shard drop from a marquee pack, there's other who have gotten those multiple times. And yes I've picked up more than one marquee pack.

    It's all random remember? As far as I know there's no way to control that randomness.

    rc8zq7uw7eag.jpeg

    But the probability of 230, 330 dropping from a pack are stated, and at 1 in 40,000 it’s no wonder that hasn’t happened for you. I’d also love to know who has gotten it “multiple” times.

    What you’re suggesting is that when burning ~50k ally points a week, for several weeks, you don’t hit even a 10 shard full character drop once in that period.

    Even for 2 weeks, that’s ~500 bronziums (including your free daily attempts). There is no way the probability of hitting a full character is that low.

    The easiest thing in the world is to come on the forums and spout blandishments about RNG, but they need to be believable to be believed.
  • Options
    TVF wrote: »
    So do we know what the current probability is for a full toon drop? Based on the amount of stuff in the bronziums I can't imagine it's very high.

    So while I appreciate the gesture by CG, not really sure this is going to have a noticeable impact.

    It’s not supposed to make an impact, it’s to maintain status quo

    So then what's the big deal?
    I barely even get the 10 shard full toon drops as it was.

    The value of those drops was cut in half, instead of doubling the shards that drop they are going to double the drop rate. It's fine.

    I understand that math around the values of the shards.

    My point is when I unload 25k ally points every few days and I don't receive any full toon drops for weeks at a time, then I can't see why people get bent out of shape when the impact is so minimal.

    Weeks at a time?

    Press X to doubt.

    Yeah buddy, sometimes it's weeks in between full toon drops

    Every time we get double drops we see a bunch of posts here and reddit with people showing their zero drops. It may not happen to you, but it does to others.

    I've never pulled a 230 or 330 shard drop from a marquee pack, there's other who have gotten those multiple times. And yes I've picked up more than one marquee pack.

    It's all random remember? As far as I know there's no way to control that randomness.

    rc8zq7uw7eag.jpeg

    But the probability of 230, 330 dropping from a pack are stated, and at 1 in 40,000 it’s no wonder that hasn’t happened for you. I’d also love to know who has gotten it “multiple” times.

    What you’re suggesting is that when burning ~50k ally points a week, for several weeks, you don’t hit even a 10 shard full character drop once in that period.

    Even for 2 weeks, that’s ~500 bronziums (including your free daily attempts). There is no way the probability of hitting a full character is that low.

    The easiest thing in the world is to come on the forums and spout blandishments about RNG, but they need to be believable to be believed.

    Since every pull is treated as individual instance it is entirely possible that some could use 100k in ally points and pull 0 full toons. Same for double drops.

    Ahnald has been live streaming his pack pulls for a while I'm pretty sure he's pulled both 230 and 330 pulls on different occasions. I also had an old guild mate get amazingly lucky and pull 330s twice last year.

    These things are all mathematically possible. I'm not saying that I always go weeks at a time without ever hitting a full toon drop, but it has happened to me a few times over the 5 years I've been playing.

    Again I'm not saying that these things always happen, but to argue that it's impossible and does not happen from time to time is also naive.

    @Kyno @TVF

    Yeah but the opposite also happens a few times over 5 years. You can also occasionally get 2 or 3 full characters in 50k in shard currency. So it all evens out over the long haul.
  • Kyno
    32087 posts Moderator
    Options
    TVF wrote: »
    So do we know what the current probability is for a full toon drop? Based on the amount of stuff in the bronziums I can't imagine it's very high.

    So while I appreciate the gesture by CG, not really sure this is going to have a noticeable impact.

    It’s not supposed to make an impact, it’s to maintain status quo

    So then what's the big deal?
    I barely even get the 10 shard full toon drops as it was.

    The value of those drops was cut in half, instead of doubling the shards that drop they are going to double the drop rate. It's fine.

    I understand that math around the values of the shards.

    My point is when I unload 25k ally points every few days and I don't receive any full toon drops for weeks at a time, then I can't see why people get bent out of shape when the impact is so minimal.

    Weeks at a time?

    Press X to doubt.

    Yeah buddy, sometimes it's weeks in between full toon drops

    Every time we get double drops we see a bunch of posts here and reddit with people showing their zero drops. It may not happen to you, but it does to others.

    I've never pulled a 230 or 330 shard drop from a marquee pack, there's other who have gotten those multiple times. And yes I've picked up more than one marquee pack.

    It's all random remember? As far as I know there's no way to control that randomness.

    rc8zq7uw7eag.jpeg

    But the probability of 230, 330 dropping from a pack are stated, and at 1 in 40,000 it’s no wonder that hasn’t happened for you. I’d also love to know who has gotten it “multiple” times.

    What you’re suggesting is that when burning ~50k ally points a week, for several weeks, you don’t hit even a 10 shard full character drop once in that period.

    Even for 2 weeks, that’s ~500 bronziums (including your free daily attempts). There is no way the probability of hitting a full character is that low.

    The easiest thing in the world is to come on the forums and spout blandishments about RNG, but they need to be believable to be believed.

    Since every pull is treated as individual instance it is entirely possible that some could use 100k in ally points and pull 0 full toons. Same for double drops.

    Ahnald has been live streaming his pack pulls for a while I'm pretty sure he's pulled both 230 and 330 pulls on different occasions. I also had an old guild mate get amazingly lucky and pull 330s twice last year.

    These things are all mathematically possible. I'm not saying that I always go weeks at a time without ever hitting a full toon drop, but it has happened to me a few times over the 5 years I've been playing.

    Again I'm not saying that these things always happen, but to argue that it's impossible and does not happen from time to time is also naive.

    Kyno TVF

    we can agree to disagree, but what you are saying above does not match the below statement you made earlier:
    My point is when I unload 25k ally points every few days and I don't receive any full toon drops for weeks at a time,

    if its only happened a few times over that you have not gotten full characters over the past 5 years, lets say 10 times a year. that means 50 times in your life of playing this game, that leaves 200 times it has happened. (52 weeks a year and lets just say you pull bronzium once a week) that seems like a significant thing to me. but you seem to disagree. thats fine, but I can see why people wouldn't want to lose any income from any source, never mind something with a direct link to G12 and somewhere in the neighborhood of 15% lose to that.

    no one was really upset about the daily loss, the real point was that if this was never fixed, that is a significate long term loss of income. but its a moot point as this will be fixed in an upcoming update.
  • Options
    TVF wrote: »
    So do we know what the current probability is for a full toon drop? Based on the amount of stuff in the bronziums I can't imagine it's very high.

    So while I appreciate the gesture by CG, not really sure this is going to have a noticeable impact.

    It’s not supposed to make an impact, it’s to maintain status quo

    So then what's the big deal?
    I barely even get the 10 shard full toon drops as it was.

    The value of those drops was cut in half, instead of doubling the shards that drop they are going to double the drop rate. It's fine.

    I understand that math around the values of the shards.

    My point is when I unload 25k ally points every few days and I don't receive any full toon drops for weeks at a time, then I can't see why people get bent out of shape when the impact is so minimal.

    Weeks at a time?

    Press X to doubt.

    Yeah buddy, sometimes it's weeks in between full toon drops

    Every time we get double drops we see a bunch of posts here and reddit with people showing their zero drops. It may not happen to you, but it does to others.

    I've never pulled a 230 or 330 shard drop from a marquee pack, there's other who have gotten those multiple times. And yes I've picked up more than one marquee pack.

    It's all random remember? As far as I know there's no way to control that randomness.

    rc8zq7uw7eag.jpeg

    But the probability of 230, 330 dropping from a pack are stated, and at 1 in 40,000 it’s no wonder that hasn’t happened for you. I’d also love to know who has gotten it “multiple” times.

    What you’re suggesting is that when burning ~50k ally points a week, for several weeks, you don’t hit even a 10 shard full character drop once in that period.

    Even for 2 weeks, that’s ~500 bronziums (including your free daily attempts). There is no way the probability of hitting a full character is that low.

    The easiest thing in the world is to come on the forums and spout blandishments about RNG, but they need to be believable to be believed.

    Since every pull is treated as individual instance it is entirely possible that some could use 100k in ally points and pull 0 full toons. Same for double drops.

    Ahnald has been live streaming his pack pulls for a while I'm pretty sure he's pulled both 230 and 330 pulls on different occasions. I also had an old guild mate get amazingly lucky and pull 330s twice last year.

    These things are all mathematically possible. I'm not saying that I always go weeks at a time without ever hitting a full toon drop, but it has happened to me a few times over the 5 years I've been playing.

    Again I'm not saying that these things always happen, but to argue that it's impossible and does not happen from time to time is also naive.

    @Kyno @TVF

    Those are pack probabilities and doesn't reflect bronziums. We sure don't get a 1* drop from bronziums with %55 probability and we can't even get anything beyond 4*.
  • Options
    TVF wrote: »
    So do we know what the current probability is for a full toon drop? Based on the amount of stuff in the bronziums I can't imagine it's very high.

    So while I appreciate the gesture by CG, not really sure this is going to have a noticeable impact.

    It’s not supposed to make an impact, it’s to maintain status quo

    So then what's the big deal?
    I barely even get the 10 shard full toon drops as it was.

    The value of those drops was cut in half, instead of doubling the shards that drop they are going to double the drop rate. It's fine.

    I understand that math around the values of the shards.

    My point is when I unload 25k ally points every few days and I don't receive any full toon drops for weeks at a time, then I can't see why people get bent out of shape when the impact is so minimal.

    Weeks at a time?

    Press X to doubt.

    Yeah buddy, sometimes it's weeks in between full toon drops

    Every time we get double drops we see a bunch of posts here and reddit with people showing their zero drops. It may not happen to you, but it does to others.

    I've never pulled a 230 or 330 shard drop from a marquee pack, there's other who have gotten those multiple times. And yes I've picked up more than one marquee pack.

    It's all random remember? As far as I know there's no way to control that randomness.

    rc8zq7uw7eag.jpeg

    But the probability of 230, 330 dropping from a pack are stated, and at 1 in 40,000 it’s no wonder that hasn’t happened for you. I’d also love to know who has gotten it “multiple” times.

    What you’re suggesting is that when burning ~50k ally points a week, for several weeks, you don’t hit even a 10 shard full character drop once in that period.

    Even for 2 weeks, that’s ~500 bronziums (including your free daily attempts). There is no way the probability of hitting a full character is that low.

    The easiest thing in the world is to come on the forums and spout blandishments about RNG, but they need to be believable to be believed.

    Since every pull is treated as individual instance it is entirely possible that some could use 100k in ally points and pull 0 full toons. Same for double drops.

    Ahnald has been live streaming his pack pulls for a while I'm pretty sure he's pulled both 230 and 330 pulls on different occasions. I also had an old guild mate get amazingly lucky and pull 330s twice last year.

    These things are all mathematically possible. I'm not saying that I always go weeks at a time without ever hitting a full toon drop, but it has happened to me a few times over the 5 years I've been playing.

    Again I'm not saying that these things always happen, but to argue that it's impossible and does not happen from time to time is also naive.

    @Kyno @TVF

    Yeah but the opposite also happens a few times over 5 years. You can also occasionally get 2 or 3 full characters in 50k in shard currency. So it all evens out over the long haul.

    Yeah I'm not arguing that, and have not been arguing that. See where I've spoken about the people with unusually good luck.

    My original point was that personally, I don't see the change (while appreciated) as something that will make a notable difference.

    Yes but over the long term you would also have weeks with extraordinary good luck as well as weeks with the bad luck.
  • TVF
    36861 posts Member
    Options
    Kyno wrote: »
    TVF wrote: »
    So do we know what the current probability is for a full toon drop? Based on the amount of stuff in the bronziums I can't imagine it's very high.

    So while I appreciate the gesture by CG, not really sure this is going to have a noticeable impact.

    It’s not supposed to make an impact, it’s to maintain status quo

    So then what's the big deal?
    I barely even get the 10 shard full toon drops as it was.

    The value of those drops was cut in half, instead of doubling the shards that drop they are going to double the drop rate. It's fine.

    I understand that math around the values of the shards.

    My point is when I unload 25k ally points every few days and I don't receive any full toon drops for weeks at a time, then I can't see why people get bent out of shape when the impact is so minimal.

    Weeks at a time?

    Press X to doubt.

    Yeah buddy, sometimes it's weeks in between full toon drops

    Every time we get double drops we see a bunch of posts here and reddit with people showing their zero drops. It may not happen to you, but it does to others.

    I've never pulled a 230 or 330 shard drop from a marquee pack, there's other who have gotten those multiple times. And yes I've picked up more than one marquee pack.

    It's all random remember? As far as I know there's no way to control that randomness.

    rc8zq7uw7eag.jpeg

    But the probability of 230, 330 dropping from a pack are stated, and at 1 in 40,000 it’s no wonder that hasn’t happened for you. I’d also love to know who has gotten it “multiple” times.

    What you’re suggesting is that when burning ~50k ally points a week, for several weeks, you don’t hit even a 10 shard full character drop once in that period.

    Even for 2 weeks, that’s ~500 bronziums (including your free daily attempts). There is no way the probability of hitting a full character is that low.

    The easiest thing in the world is to come on the forums and spout blandishments about RNG, but they need to be believable to be believed.

    Since every pull is treated as individual instance it is entirely possible that some could use 100k in ally points and pull 0 full toons. Same for double drops.

    Ahnald has been live streaming his pack pulls for a while I'm pretty sure he's pulled both 230 and 330 pulls on different occasions. I also had an old guild mate get amazingly lucky and pull 330s twice last year.

    These things are all mathematically possible. I'm not saying that I always go weeks at a time without ever hitting a full toon drop, but it has happened to me a few times over the 5 years I've been playing.

    Again I'm not saying that these things always happen, but to argue that it's impossible and does not happen from time to time is also naive.

    Kyno TVF

    we can agree to disagree, but what you are saying above does not match the below statement you made earlier:
    My point is when I unload 25k ally points every few days and I don't receive any full toon drops for weeks at a time,

    if its only happened a few times over that you have not gotten full characters over the past 5 years, lets say 10 times a year. that means 50 times in your life of playing this game, that leaves 200 times it has happened. (52 weeks a year and lets just say you pull bronzium once a week) that seems like a significant thing to me. but you seem to disagree. thats fine, but I can see why people wouldn't want to lose any income from any source, never mind something with a direct link to G12 and somewhere in the neighborhood of 15% lose to that.

    no one was really upset about the daily loss, the real point was that if this was never fixed, that is a significate long term loss of income. but its a moot point as this will be fixed in an upcoming update.

    I never said how often it happens, only that there are times it happens for weeks at a time, so while it may have been a bit misleading, which was not intended, it's technically true lol

    giphy.gif
    I need a new message here. https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • Options
    MaruMaru wrote: »
    TVF wrote: »
    So do we know what the current probability is for a full toon drop? Based on the amount of stuff in the bronziums I can't imagine it's very high.

    So while I appreciate the gesture by CG, not really sure this is going to have a noticeable impact.

    It’s not supposed to make an impact, it’s to maintain status quo

    So then what's the big deal?
    I barely even get the 10 shard full toon drops as it was.

    The value of those drops was cut in half, instead of doubling the shards that drop they are going to double the drop rate. It's fine.

    I understand that math around the values of the shards.

    My point is when I unload 25k ally points every few days and I don't receive any full toon drops for weeks at a time, then I can't see why people get bent out of shape when the impact is so minimal.

    Weeks at a time?

    Press X to doubt.

    Yeah buddy, sometimes it's weeks in between full toon drops

    Every time we get double drops we see a bunch of posts here and reddit with people showing their zero drops. It may not happen to you, but it does to others.

    I've never pulled a 230 or 330 shard drop from a marquee pack, there's other who have gotten those multiple times. And yes I've picked up more than one marquee pack.

    It's all random remember? As far as I know there's no way to control that randomness.

    rc8zq7uw7eag.jpeg

    But the probability of 230, 330 dropping from a pack are stated, and at 1 in 40,000 it’s no wonder that hasn’t happened for you. I’d also love to know who has gotten it “multiple” times.

    What you’re suggesting is that when burning ~50k ally points a week, for several weeks, you don’t hit even a 10 shard full character drop once in that period.

    Even for 2 weeks, that’s ~500 bronziums (including your free daily attempts). There is no way the probability of hitting a full character is that low.

    The easiest thing in the world is to come on the forums and spout blandishments about RNG, but they need to be believable to be believed.

    Since every pull is treated as individual instance it is entirely possible that some could use 100k in ally points and pull 0 full toons. Same for double drops.

    Ahnald has been live streaming his pack pulls for a while I'm pretty sure he's pulled both 230 and 330 pulls on different occasions. I also had an old guild mate get amazingly lucky and pull 330s twice last year.

    These things are all mathematically possible. I'm not saying that I always go weeks at a time without ever hitting a full toon drop, but it has happened to me a few times over the 5 years I've been playing.

    Again I'm not saying that these things always happen, but to argue that it's impossible and does not happen from time to time is also naive.

    @Kyno @TVF

    Those are pack probabilities and doesn't reflect bronziums. We sure don't get a 1* drop from bronziums with %55 probability and we can't even get anything beyond 4*.

    We don't have official probabilities listed on the probability pack chart, hence why I've stayed away from quoting numbers. But it's definitely reasonable to conclude that 4* toon drops less often than 1* toon drops, which already drops less often than gear.

    Outside of that, every instance of a card pull or a node sim, or whatever is a separate instance. Meaning the exact same probabilities are in play, respective to the action, every single time you complete the action.

    And that has nothing to do with people who have been lucky enough to get those low probability pulls in more than one occasion. So I'm not sure what your point is.

    My point was to not go with the numbers in pack probabilities.

    If you want another point though, I don't trust your untracked -few weeks with no full drops- quote either. The 1* probability in bronziums are much higher than 2-3-4 where 4 is really rare and we all get tons of bronziums regardless of where we are in our development. If you show us a 100k bronzium opening without any fulls or even list down the results, that I believe. Anectodal memory=vader NOOOOO.
  • Options
    TVF wrote: »
    Kyno wrote: »
    TVF wrote: »
    So do we know what the current probability is for a full toon drop? Based on the amount of stuff in the bronziums I can't imagine it's very high.

    So while I appreciate the gesture by CG, not really sure this is going to have a noticeable impact.

    It’s not supposed to make an impact, it’s to maintain status quo

    So then what's the big deal?
    I barely even get the 10 shard full toon drops as it was.

    The value of those drops was cut in half, instead of doubling the shards that drop they are going to double the drop rate. It's fine.

    I understand that math around the values of the shards.

    My point is when I unload 25k ally points every few days and I don't receive any full toon drops for weeks at a time, then I can't see why people get bent out of shape when the impact is so minimal.

    Weeks at a time?

    Press X to doubt.

    Yeah buddy, sometimes it's weeks in between full toon drops

    Every time we get double drops we see a bunch of posts here and reddit with people showing their zero drops. It may not happen to you, but it does to others.

    I've never pulled a 230 or 330 shard drop from a marquee pack, there's other who have gotten those multiple times. And yes I've picked up more than one marquee pack.

    It's all random remember? As far as I know there's no way to control that randomness.

    rc8zq7uw7eag.jpeg

    But the probability of 230, 330 dropping from a pack are stated, and at 1 in 40,000 it’s no wonder that hasn’t happened for you. I’d also love to know who has gotten it “multiple” times.

    What you’re suggesting is that when burning ~50k ally points a week, for several weeks, you don’t hit even a 10 shard full character drop once in that period.

    Even for 2 weeks, that’s ~500 bronziums (including your free daily attempts). There is no way the probability of hitting a full character is that low.

    The easiest thing in the world is to come on the forums and spout blandishments about RNG, but they need to be believable to be believed.

    Since every pull is treated as individual instance it is entirely possible that some could use 100k in ally points and pull 0 full toons. Same for double drops.

    Ahnald has been live streaming his pack pulls for a while I'm pretty sure he's pulled both 230 and 330 pulls on different occasions. I also had an old guild mate get amazingly lucky and pull 330s twice last year.

    These things are all mathematically possible. I'm not saying that I always go weeks at a time without ever hitting a full toon drop, but it has happened to me a few times over the 5 years I've been playing.

    Again I'm not saying that these things always happen, but to argue that it's impossible and does not happen from time to time is also naive.

    Kyno TVF

    we can agree to disagree, but what you are saying above does not match the below statement you made earlier:
    My point is when I unload 25k ally points every few days and I don't receive any full toon drops for weeks at a time,

    if its only happened a few times over that you have not gotten full characters over the past 5 years, lets say 10 times a year. that means 50 times in your life of playing this game, that leaves 200 times it has happened. (52 weeks a year and lets just say you pull bronzium once a week) that seems like a significant thing to me. but you seem to disagree. thats fine, but I can see why people wouldn't want to lose any income from any source, never mind something with a direct link to G12 and somewhere in the neighborhood of 15% lose to that.

    no one was really upset about the daily loss, the real point was that if this was never fixed, that is a significate long term loss of income. but its a moot point as this will be fixed in an upcoming update.

    I never said how often it happens, only that there are times it happens for weeks at a time, so while it may have been a bit misleading, which was not intended, it's technically true lol

    giphy.gif

    You don't have to believe, I don't need your validation 😉

    K, safely ignored then. If you check back in the thread the attempts at showing how much portion of our shard shop income comes from bronzium fulls vary around %5-%15 which is nothing like -I don't get all that many, so doesn't matter anyways-.
  • TVF
    36861 posts Member
    Options
    TVF wrote: »
    Kyno wrote: »
    TVF wrote: »
    So do we know what the current probability is for a full toon drop? Based on the amount of stuff in the bronziums I can't imagine it's very high.

    So while I appreciate the gesture by CG, not really sure this is going to have a noticeable impact.

    It’s not supposed to make an impact, it’s to maintain status quo

    So then what's the big deal?
    I barely even get the 10 shard full toon drops as it was.

    The value of those drops was cut in half, instead of doubling the shards that drop they are going to double the drop rate. It's fine.

    I understand that math around the values of the shards.

    My point is when I unload 25k ally points every few days and I don't receive any full toon drops for weeks at a time, then I can't see why people get bent out of shape when the impact is so minimal.

    Weeks at a time?

    Press X to doubt.

    Yeah buddy, sometimes it's weeks in between full toon drops

    Every time we get double drops we see a bunch of posts here and reddit with people showing their zero drops. It may not happen to you, but it does to others.

    I've never pulled a 230 or 330 shard drop from a marquee pack, there's other who have gotten those multiple times. And yes I've picked up more than one marquee pack.

    It's all random remember? As far as I know there's no way to control that randomness.

    rc8zq7uw7eag.jpeg

    But the probability of 230, 330 dropping from a pack are stated, and at 1 in 40,000 it’s no wonder that hasn’t happened for you. I’d also love to know who has gotten it “multiple” times.

    What you’re suggesting is that when burning ~50k ally points a week, for several weeks, you don’t hit even a 10 shard full character drop once in that period.

    Even for 2 weeks, that’s ~500 bronziums (including your free daily attempts). There is no way the probability of hitting a full character is that low.

    The easiest thing in the world is to come on the forums and spout blandishments about RNG, but they need to be believable to be believed.

    Since every pull is treated as individual instance it is entirely possible that some could use 100k in ally points and pull 0 full toons. Same for double drops.

    Ahnald has been live streaming his pack pulls for a while I'm pretty sure he's pulled both 230 and 330 pulls on different occasions. I also had an old guild mate get amazingly lucky and pull 330s twice last year.

    These things are all mathematically possible. I'm not saying that I always go weeks at a time without ever hitting a full toon drop, but it has happened to me a few times over the 5 years I've been playing.

    Again I'm not saying that these things always happen, but to argue that it's impossible and does not happen from time to time is also naive.

    Kyno TVF

    we can agree to disagree, but what you are saying above does not match the below statement you made earlier:
    My point is when I unload 25k ally points every few days and I don't receive any full toon drops for weeks at a time,

    if its only happened a few times over that you have not gotten full characters over the past 5 years, lets say 10 times a year. that means 50 times in your life of playing this game, that leaves 200 times it has happened. (52 weeks a year and lets just say you pull bronzium once a week) that seems like a significant thing to me. but you seem to disagree. thats fine, but I can see why people wouldn't want to lose any income from any source, never mind something with a direct link to G12 and somewhere in the neighborhood of 15% lose to that.

    no one was really upset about the daily loss, the real point was that if this was never fixed, that is a significate long term loss of income. but its a moot point as this will be fixed in an upcoming update.

    I never said how often it happens, only that there are times it happens for weeks at a time, so while it may have been a bit misleading, which was not intended, it's technically true lol

    giphy.gif

    You don't have to believe, I don't need your validation 😉

    That's fine. I'll believe data over someone who has no data.
    I need a new message here. https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • Kyno
    32087 posts Moderator
    Options
    MaruMaru wrote: »
    TVF wrote: »
    Kyno wrote: »
    TVF wrote: »
    So do we know what the current probability is for a full toon drop? Based on the amount of stuff in the bronziums I can't imagine it's very high.

    So while I appreciate the gesture by CG, not really sure this is going to have a noticeable impact.

    It’s not supposed to make an impact, it’s to maintain status quo

    So then what's the big deal?
    I barely even get the 10 shard full toon drops as it was.

    The value of those drops was cut in half, instead of doubling the shards that drop they are going to double the drop rate. It's fine.

    I understand that math around the values of the shards.

    My point is when I unload 25k ally points every few days and I don't receive any full toon drops for weeks at a time, then I can't see why people get bent out of shape when the impact is so minimal.

    Weeks at a time?

    Press X to doubt.

    Yeah buddy, sometimes it's weeks in between full toon drops

    Every time we get double drops we see a bunch of posts here and reddit with people showing their zero drops. It may not happen to you, but it does to others.

    I've never pulled a 230 or 330 shard drop from a marquee pack, there's other who have gotten those multiple times. And yes I've picked up more than one marquee pack.

    It's all random remember? As far as I know there's no way to control that randomness.

    rc8zq7uw7eag.jpeg

    But the probability of 230, 330 dropping from a pack are stated, and at 1 in 40,000 it’s no wonder that hasn’t happened for you. I’d also love to know who has gotten it “multiple” times.

    What you’re suggesting is that when burning ~50k ally points a week, for several weeks, you don’t hit even a 10 shard full character drop once in that period.

    Even for 2 weeks, that’s ~500 bronziums (including your free daily attempts). There is no way the probability of hitting a full character is that low.

    The easiest thing in the world is to come on the forums and spout blandishments about RNG, but they need to be believable to be believed.

    Since every pull is treated as individual instance it is entirely possible that some could use 100k in ally points and pull 0 full toons. Same for double drops.

    Ahnald has been live streaming his pack pulls for a while I'm pretty sure he's pulled both 230 and 330 pulls on different occasions. I also had an old guild mate get amazingly lucky and pull 330s twice last year.

    These things are all mathematically possible. I'm not saying that I always go weeks at a time without ever hitting a full toon drop, but it has happened to me a few times over the 5 years I've been playing.

    Again I'm not saying that these things always happen, but to argue that it's impossible and does not happen from time to time is also naive.

    Kyno TVF

    we can agree to disagree, but what you are saying above does not match the below statement you made earlier:
    My point is when I unload 25k ally points every few days and I don't receive any full toon drops for weeks at a time,

    if its only happened a few times over that you have not gotten full characters over the past 5 years, lets say 10 times a year. that means 50 times in your life of playing this game, that leaves 200 times it has happened. (52 weeks a year and lets just say you pull bronzium once a week) that seems like a significant thing to me. but you seem to disagree. thats fine, but I can see why people wouldn't want to lose any income from any source, never mind something with a direct link to G12 and somewhere in the neighborhood of 15% lose to that.

    no one was really upset about the daily loss, the real point was that if this was never fixed, that is a significate long term loss of income. but its a moot point as this will be fixed in an upcoming update.

    I never said how often it happens, only that there are times it happens for weeks at a time, so while it may have been a bit misleading, which was not intended, it's technically true lol

    giphy.gif

    You don't have to believe, I don't need your validation 😉

    K, safely ignored then. If you check back in the thread the attempts at showing how much portion of our shard shop income comes from bronzium fulls vary around %5-%15 which is nothing like -I don't get all that many, so doesn't matter anyways-.

    Well to everyone else's points, where's the data to show that historically more shards have been earned from full toon pulls as compared single pulls or through other means?

    People have shown data that shows that roughly 15% or so of bronzium shards come full characters.
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