Did the Bronzium drops actually change?

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  • Nauros wrote: »
    I wouldn't be surprised if they actually stayed the same. It's a change that needed sustained outrage from the community and even then they tried to trick us with a half-measure, it's near-impossible to verify and there will always be people doing their best to shoot down any argument against CG. Do you think they can resist the temptation?
    Gather data, rather than make baseless speculations.

    I observed, prior to the change to 2 shard hits in bronziums, that when burning a large amount of ally points you should expect 1-2 shards per 1000 ally points spent. 1 shard per 1000 was on the unlucky side, 2 shards per 1000 was on the lucky side.

    After the change to 2 shards per hit, but before yesterday’s update, I noticed it had increased but not doubled from my previous observations (1.5-2.5 shards per 1000).

    If they’ve changed it, I should notice a difference now. I’ve got 100k ally points sitting ready to burn and will report back.

    You know how objective you are if you suspect they haven’t changed the rate of something you have never measured before.

    You get a shard every 4 pulls? Come on.

    No but a 25 shard pull makes up for 100 pulls with no shards.
  • On Dec 17, I posted a couple of screen captures of how I converted 250,049 bronziums into 12,015 SSC. Go to page 1 to seen the captures if you want to.

    Less than a month later, here I go again...
    269,809 = 15,240

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    fmh2lbb106jy.jpeg
  • My conclusion from the numbers above: Bronziums hate Ahsoka, Clone Wars Chewie and Lobot.
  • Anecdotal “evidence” but Lobot was the last character I got to 7 stars through Bronziums. Playing since the game came out and Lobot was finally done a few months ago.
  • Anecdotal “evidence” but Lobot was the last character I got to 7 stars through Bronziums. Playing since the game came out and Lobot was finally done a few months ago.

    Same here. But Feb '16 start.
    Officer in Ewoks Fit In Blenders. Traya, Wat & Negotiator on farm. PM to join us.
  • Anecdotal “evidence” but Lobot was the last character I got to 7 stars through Bronziums. Playing since the game came out and Lobot was finally done a few months ago.

    My last bronzium toon was one of the Tuskens. I think it was URoRRuR'R'R but I don't remember.
  • Jarvind
    3760 posts Member
    Ltswb1 wrote: »
    Did the Bronzium drops actually change?

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  • Anecdotal “evidence” but Lobot was the last character I got to 7 stars through Bronziums. Playing since the game came out and Lobot was finally done a few months ago.

    My last bronzium toon was one of the Tuskens. I think it was URoRRuR'R'R but I don't remember.

    That was my second to last.
  • I don’t know why CG doesn’t just release the rates for full character drops and what they used to be and what they are now. Then again, why he transparent?
  • twstdbydsn
    483 posts Member
    edited January 13
    Just did a quick spend of 11k ally points and go 0 full drops. Only got 8 total shards in it all as well.

    Edit ... just did another 10k and got 49 total shards. 10 IG11 and Crimson Guard and 25 Jedi Guardian. then just 2 for Clone Sgt. and Talia
  • TVF
    26682 posts Member
    Welcome to RNG City, enjoy your stay.
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  • twstdbydsn wrote: »
    Just did a quick spend of 11k ally points and go 0 full drops. Only got 8 total shards in it all as well.

    Edit ... just did another 10k and got 49 total shards. 10 IG11 and Crimson Guard and 25 Jedi Guardian. then just 2 for Clone Sgt. and Talia

    With small sample sizes you will always be subject to huge variance.

    Anything between 2.5-3.5 shards for every 1k ally points should be about right. Put those two samples together and your data looks like good data to me.
  • Ravens1113 wrote: »
    I don’t know why CG doesn’t just release the rates for full character drops and what they used to be and what they are now. Then again, why he transparent?
    Would you believe them if they told you?

    If they said the chance of a full character drop went from 15% to 30% id say no.

    If it was from 4 to 8% per pull or something similar then yes.
  • I opened Urororurorururrrrrurrokorrrrr.... for the first time this week. They definitely changed it. :D
  • TVF wrote: »
    Welcome to RNG City, enjoy your stay.

    https://xkcd.com/805/
    Officer in Ewoks Fit In Blenders. Traya, Wat & Negotiator on farm. PM to join us.
  • I saw the rates estimated somewhere with a dataset of around 600k points, or 2600osh pulls.

    It was something like:
    1.2%/0.6%/0.3%/0.15% for
    10 / 25 / 50 / 80
    Seems consistent with my pulls, but i dont keep close track. xD
  • Waqui
    7982 posts Member
    Ravens1113 wrote: »
    Ravens1113 wrote: »
    I don’t know why CG doesn’t just release the rates for full character drops and what they used to be and what they are now. Then again, why he transparent?
    Would you believe them if they told you?

    If they said the chance of a full character drop went from 15% to 30% id say no.

    If it was from 4 to 8% per pull or something similar then yes.

    So you trust them when they say the drop rate was doubled. So far so good. You can find out the current drop rate by collecting your own data by gathering other players' data. Why do you need CG to tell it to you?
  • Waqui wrote: »
    Ravens1113 wrote: »
    Ravens1113 wrote: »
    I don’t know why CG doesn’t just release the rates for full character drops and what they used to be and what they are now. Then again, why he transparent?
    Would you believe them if they told you?

    If they said the chance of a full character drop went from 15% to 30% id say no.

    If it was from 4 to 8% per pull or something similar then yes.

    So you trust them when they say the drop rate was doubled. So far so good. You can find out the current drop rate by collecting your own data by gathering other players' data. Why do you need CG to tell it to you?

    Because it’s their job? I’m sorry I’m not getting paid for data collection nor should I have to compile data on thousands of pulls in order to get a drop rate when they can simply say “this is the drop rate for a full character pull now....this is what it was”

    I mean by law they’re supposed to reveal the probability of their in game drops but choose the loophole of only paid content requiring it. CG being CG I guess. Although it makes me laugh when Doja, Crumb or Kyno will tell us to not speculate when they’re the ones (not so much Kyno as a forum mod), forcing speculation by not telling us what the drop rates are
  • Kyno
    27450 posts Moderator
    Ravens1113 wrote: »
    Waqui wrote: »
    Ravens1113 wrote: »
    Ravens1113 wrote: »
    I don’t know why CG doesn’t just release the rates for full character drops and what they used to be and what they are now. Then again, why he transparent?
    Would you believe them if they told you?

    If they said the chance of a full character drop went from 15% to 30% id say no.

    If it was from 4 to 8% per pull or something similar then yes.

    So you trust them when they say the drop rate was doubled. So far so good. You can find out the current drop rate by collecting your own data by gathering other players' data. Why do you need CG to tell it to you?

    Because it’s their job? I’m sorry I’m not getting paid for data collection nor should I have to compile data on thousands of pulls in order to get a drop rate when they can simply say “this is the drop rate for a full character pull now....this is what it was”

    I mean by law they’re supposed to reveal the probability of their in game drops but choose the loophole of only paid content requiring it. CG being CG I guess. Although it makes me laugh when Doja, Crumb or Kyno will tell us to not speculate when they’re the ones (not so much Kyno as a forum mod), forcing speculation by not telling us what the drop rates are

    I dont think anyone has asked you "not to speculate".

    So you would believe them if they told you what the numbers were, but not when they tell you its doubled?
  • Kyno wrote: »
    Ravens1113 wrote: »
    Waqui wrote: »
    Ravens1113 wrote: »
    Ravens1113 wrote: »
    I don’t know why CG doesn’t just release the rates for full character drops and what they used to be and what they are now. Then again, why he transparent?
    Would you believe them if they told you?

    If they said the chance of a full character drop went from 15% to 30% id say no.

    If it was from 4 to 8% per pull or something similar then yes.

    So you trust them when they say the drop rate was doubled. So far so good. You can find out the current drop rate by collecting your own data by gathering other players' data. Why do you need CG to tell it to you?

    Because it’s their job? I’m sorry I’m not getting paid for data collection nor should I have to compile data on thousands of pulls in order to get a drop rate when they can simply say “this is the drop rate for a full character pull now....this is what it was”

    I mean by law they’re supposed to reveal the probability of their in game drops but choose the loophole of only paid content requiring it. CG being CG I guess. Although it makes me laugh when Doja, Crumb or Kyno will tell us to not speculate when they’re the ones (not so much Kyno as a forum mod), forcing speculation by not telling us what the drop rates are

    I dont think anyone has asked you "not to speculate".

    So you would believe them if they told you what the numbers were, but not when they tell you its doubled?

    I never said I didn’t believe them. Please show me where I said I didn’t think it was actually doubled.

    And many times with drop rates throughout the game, we have been told to not speculate but look at the data and numbers. Case in point with the trash Kuiil and IG11 rates. We had to figure it out for ourselves. So why do the devs never just tell us the drop rates? Same with gear drop rates or normal shard drop rates. Why do we need to collect our own data? Is it too hard for them to tell us? Is it a liability to say “normal drop rates for purple gear like stun guns are 25%”, or “the old drop rate for full characters in bronziums was 2% now 4%”, etc.

  • Kyno
    27450 posts Moderator
    Ravens1113 wrote: »
    Kyno wrote: »
    Ravens1113 wrote: »
    Waqui wrote: »
    Ravens1113 wrote: »
    Ravens1113 wrote: »
    I don’t know why CG doesn’t just release the rates for full character drops and what they used to be and what they are now. Then again, why he transparent?
    Would you believe them if they told you?

    If they said the chance of a full character drop went from 15% to 30% id say no.

    If it was from 4 to 8% per pull or something similar then yes.

    So you trust them when they say the drop rate was doubled. So far so good. You can find out the current drop rate by collecting your own data by gathering other players' data. Why do you need CG to tell it to you?

    Because it’s their job? I’m sorry I’m not getting paid for data collection nor should I have to compile data on thousands of pulls in order to get a drop rate when they can simply say “this is the drop rate for a full character pull now....this is what it was”

    I mean by law they’re supposed to reveal the probability of their in game drops but choose the loophole of only paid content requiring it. CG being CG I guess. Although it makes me laugh when Doja, Crumb or Kyno will tell us to not speculate when they’re the ones (not so much Kyno as a forum mod), forcing speculation by not telling us what the drop rates are

    I dont think anyone has asked you "not to speculate".

    So you would believe them if they told you what the numbers were, but not when they tell you its doubled?

    I never said I didn’t believe them. Please show me where I said I didn’t think it was actually doubled.

    And many times with drop rates throughout the game, we have been told to not speculate but look at the data and numbers. Case in point with the trash Kuiil and IG11 rates. We had to figure it out for ourselves. So why do the devs never just tell us the drop rates? Same with gear drop rates or normal shard drop rates. Why do we need to collect our own data? Is it too hard for them to tell us? Is it a liability to say “normal drop rates for purple gear like stun guns are 25%”, or “the old drop rate for full characters in bronziums was 2% now 4%”, etc.

    I figured since you didnt want to collect data to prove anything, that you were saying you didnt believe them. You are correct you never said you dodnt believe them, at least not in the comments I saw.

    Can you quote them saying dont speculate?

    I may have, but less to say not to speculate and more to say if you are going to draw conclusions you should base them on data, and not feelings.

    I would say to some extent yes it could be a "liability issue" because we see things misrepresented here as data, and I dont think they would spend their time arguing with everyone who posts bad or short data sets claiming "they lied", but I have no direct statements from them on why drops for elements in game are not published. I also do not look for data like that in other games, do they have that information available for everything that drops in game, or do they just use different methods to avoid drop rates, i.e - slower pulls but at 100% (could be just as many pulls also but it could take more to complete X)
  • In the past they have confirmed once that some droprate was in accord with what community deduced. Forgot which it was.
  • So we don't believe CG when they say rates are doubled....but we will definitely believe them when they tell us it went from [value]% to [double that value]%?

    I'll take "Things that will definitely happen" for $1000
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  • Kyno
    27450 posts Moderator
    MaruMaru wrote: »
    In the past they have confirmed once that some droprate was in accord with what community deduced. Forgot which it was.

    I remember some mild confirmation around GO numbers for GW teams. I don't recall anything around any drops.
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