Do Geos affect drop rates?

Jordy_Rain

I've been farming bad batch for weeks, refreshing each node at least once every day (usually 4x25 refreshes and 1x50 of whoever Im missing most). With those 45 rolls every day, I have never gotten less than 10 shards. On average I've notcied the drop rate is about 1.5 shards per 5 rolls, or 13.5 shards a day. Today I got 4 shards on 45 rolls.

Is it possible these geos are somehow changing the drop rates?? This has never happened before.

ssj4tim

I too have noticed this, since geos were put on I've gotten mostly 0 bad batch shards while getting multiple "bonus" geo shards. They said something about scaling based on energy, could they have somehow messed with the bad batch shards?

Xcien

It’s probably just bad RNG, no need to jump to conclusions.

Kyno

They do not change drop rates, but you can always collect data and check.

Jordy_Rain

I'm wondering if they have some kind of logic that says you can only get so much on a drop, so getting more of one item decreases chances of getting another. In other words, there are dependent probabilities. That would be my only concern.

Kyno

Jordy_Rain wrote: »

I'm wondering if they have some kind of logic that says you can only get so much on a drop, so getting more of one item decreases chances of getting another. In other words, there are dependent probabilities. That would be my only concern.

No there are not. Each element in a node has an independent drop rate they follow.

zatho

Kyno wrote: »

Jordy_Rain wrote: »

I'm wondering if they have some kind of logic that says you can only get so much on a drop, so getting more of one item decreases chances of getting another. In other words, there are dependent probabilities. That would be my only concern.

No there are not. Each element in a node has an independent drop rate they follow.

I really have my doubts on that. That would mean that there is a chance that you get absolutely zero rewards if every gear piece has a bad roll. I never experienced that. There was always some gear, but not always the same. So no piece at 100%.

Kyno

zatho wrote: »

Kyno wrote: »

Jordy_Rain wrote: »

I'm wondering if they have some kind of logic that says you can only get so much on a drop, so getting more of one item decreases chances of getting another. In other words, there are dependent probabilities. That would be my only concern.

No there are not. Each element in a node has an independent drop rate they follow.

I really have my doubts on that. That would mean that there is a chance that you get absolutely zero rewards if every gear piece has a bad roll. I never experienced that. There was always some gear, but not always the same. So no piece at 100%.

Please feel free to track the data and check. No need to get hooked on a feeling.

Jordy_Rain

Kyno wrote: »

They do not change drop rates, but you can always collect data and check.

My guildmates told me today that they believe the drop rates decrease as you get closer to 7*. More than a couple have noticed that drops fall off a cliff at some point and it takes much longer to get the last 50 shards or so than it does 50 shards from 1 to 6*. One guy told me he once spent nearly a month to get the last 10 shards. Any truth to this?

Xcien

Jordy_Rain wrote: »

Kyno wrote: »

They do not change drop rates, but you can always collect data and check.

My guildmates told me today that they believe the drop rates decrease as you get closer to 7*. More than a couple have noticed that drops fall off a cliff at some point and it takes much longer to get the last 50 shards or so than it does 50 shards from 1 to 6*. One guy told me he once spent nearly a month to get the last 10 shards. Any truth to this?

My guess is no, it’s probably just a really unfortunate case of RNG. But as I’m sure Kyno will say, you can always collect data to check if it’s true.

DarjeloSalas

Jordy_Rain wrote: »

Kyno wrote: »

They do not change drop rates, but you can always collect data and check.

My guildmates told me today that they believe the drop rates decrease as you get closer to 7*. More than a couple have noticed that drops fall off a cliff at some point and it takes much longer to get the last 50 shards or so than it does 50 shards from 1 to 6*. One guy told me he once spent nearly a month to get the last 10 shards. Any truth to this?

Short answer: No.

Long answer: Noooooo!