Terrible drop rates during double drop event?

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Has anyone noticed any reduction in drop rates? I did 3 fleet refreshes and 3 normal energy refreshes. With the fleet energy I tried farming some gear, the drops were horrendous. With normal energy I tried farming sith trooper shards with one of them and pulled 0 shards and when I tried hitting some kyro I only managed to get 1 and 2 successful attempts per refresh. So far on day 1 I got absolutely screwed by the drops and got fewer stuff than even on regular days. Sure the sample size is really small to draw conclusions, I want to see how the rest of the event is going to go.

Replies

  • Been great for me. Got 14 mk12 cuffs from 12 sims, for one example.
  • I am not alone after all...lol

    I also made a thread about the drop rate...lol
  • 2*0=0
    :p
  • xpgammer
    7 posts Member
    edited November 24
    I noticed this too. I was farming hux and only got 4 out of the 5 sims which I usually get anyways
    the drop rates are normal you just expect to get more than you do
    but it make gear farms amazing!
  • Has anyone noticed any reduction in drop rates? I did 3 fleet refreshes and 3 normal energy refreshes. With the fleet energy I tried farming some gear, the drops were horrendous. With normal energy I tried farming sith trooper shards with one of them and pulled 0 shards and when I tried hitting some kyro I only managed to get 1 and 2 successful attempts per refresh. So far on day 1 I got absolutely screwed by the drops and got fewer stuff than even on regular days. Sure the sample size is really small to draw conclusions, I want to see how the rest of the event is going to go.

    I know right??? Random number generators are supposed to always work in your favor! Especially when you particularly want them too.
  • TVF
    33137 posts Member
    I'll take your extra drops if you don't want them.

    Drop rates are not changed during double drops. For every person saying they got terrible drops, there's another one saying they did awesome. It's the same drop rate before, during, and after.

    The CGDF requests that CG takes away everyone's Extra Life Charity Event rewards. We don't deserve them. https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • Has anyone noticed any reduction in drop rates? I did 3 fleet refreshes and 3 normal energy refreshes. With the fleet energy I tried farming some gear, the drops were horrendous. With normal energy I tried farming sith trooper shards with one of them and pulled 0 shards and when I tried hitting some kyro I only managed to get 1 and 2 successful attempts per refresh. So far on day 1 I got absolutely screwed by the drops and got fewer stuff than even on regular days. Sure the sample size is really small to draw conclusions, I want to see how the rest of the event is going to go.

    I know right??? Random number generators are supposed to always work in your favor! Especially when you particularly want them too.

    Well if for months you notice a certain pattern and when the conditions change seemingly in your favor the pattern conveniently breaks then it's hard not to feel a bit sussed out. Again, it is the first day of a 5 day event so we'll see how the other 4 days play out I guess
  • TVF wrote: »
    I'll take your extra drops if you don't want them.

    Drop rates are not changed during double drops. For every person saying they got terrible drops, there's another one saying they did awesome. It's the same drop rate before, during, and after.

    I know but when you get 4 shards in 10 attempts that's the equivalent of 1 in 10 which is just 10%, or when you do 3x12 on gear and you get like 8 pieces that's 4/36 which is way too low for the usual drop rates
  • Double drops means the drop quantities are doubled - not the drop rate. You're still subject to exactly the same %chance of getting the drop. It's always like this.

    On 29 sims I managed 28 Krrr shards so comfortably above average - Boushhh drops were about average - 8 shards for 15 sims but Sklando hit above average at 14 shards for 15 sims. Other nodes I hit returned below average.

    The drop rates never change - our perception of them over a short period of time often does - even more so during double drops because our expectation and/or hope of getting the drop is increased so the brain places a higher significance on the result.

    I'm aware and I took that into account. For example the sith trooper node drops 4 shards per successful attempt, I did 10 attempts and only got 4 shards which is 1/10 attempts or 10%, normally it should be at least 30% so at least 12 shards
  • TVF
    33137 posts Member
    TVF wrote: »
    I'll take your extra drops if you don't want them.

    Drop rates are not changed during double drops. For every person saying they got terrible drops, there's another one saying they did awesome. It's the same drop rate before, during, and after.

    I know but when you get 4 shards in 10 attempts that's the equivalent of 1 in 10 which is just 10%, or when you do 3x12 on gear and you get like 8 pieces that's 4/36 which is way too low for the usual drop rates

    There's no "usual drop rate" there's only the drop rate, nothing was changed. You can't claim a change in rates based on your tiny sample sizes.
    The CGDF requests that CG takes away everyone's Extra Life Charity Event rewards. We don't deserve them. https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • TVF
    33137 posts Member
    Double drops means the drop quantities are doubled - not the drop rate. You're still subject to exactly the same %chance of getting the drop. It's always like this.

    On 29 sims I managed 28 Krrr shards so comfortably above average - Boushhh drops were about average - 8 shards for 15 sims but Sklando hit above average at 14 shards for 15 sims. Other nodes I hit returned below average.

    The drop rates never change - our perception of them over a short period of time often does - even more so during double drops because our expectation and/or hope of getting the drop is increased so the brain places a higher significance on the result.

    I'm aware and I took that into account. For example the sith trooper node drops 4 shards per successful attempt, I did 10 attempts and only got 4 shards which is 1/10 attempts or 10%, normally it should be at least 30% so at least 12 shards

    Again, your sample sizes are too small.

    I got 36% today on 25 sims of nuLeia.
    The CGDF requests that CG takes away everyone's Extra Life Charity Event rewards. We don't deserve them. https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • TVF
    33137 posts Member
    Has anyone noticed any reduction in drop rates? I did 3 fleet refreshes and 3 normal energy refreshes. With the fleet energy I tried farming some gear, the drops were horrendous. With normal energy I tried farming sith trooper shards with one of them and pulled 0 shards and when I tried hitting some kyro I only managed to get 1 and 2 successful attempts per refresh. So far on day 1 I got absolutely screwed by the drops and got fewer stuff than even on regular days. Sure the sample size is really small to draw conclusions, I want to see how the rest of the event is going to go.

    I know right??? Random number generators are supposed to always work in your favor! Especially when you particularly want them too.

    Well if for months you notice a certain pattern and when the conditions change seemingly in your favor the pattern conveniently breaks then it's hard not to feel a bit sussed out. Again, it is the first day of a 5 day event so we'll see how the other 4 days play out I guess

    What pattern? Where's your data for these months of sims?
    The CGDF requests that CG takes away everyone's Extra Life Charity Event rewards. We don't deserve them. https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • TVF wrote: »
    Has anyone noticed any reduction in drop rates? I did 3 fleet refreshes and 3 normal energy refreshes. With the fleet energy I tried farming some gear, the drops were horrendous. With normal energy I tried farming sith trooper shards with one of them and pulled 0 shards and when I tried hitting some kyro I only managed to get 1 and 2 successful attempts per refresh. So far on day 1 I got absolutely screwed by the drops and got fewer stuff than even on regular days. Sure the sample size is really small to draw conclusions, I want to see how the rest of the event is going to go.

    I know right??? Random number generators are supposed to always work in your favor! Especially when you particularly want them too.

    Well if for months you notice a certain pattern and when the conditions change seemingly in your favor the pattern conveniently breaks then it's hard not to feel a bit sussed out. Again, it is the first day of a 5 day event so we'll see how the other 4 days play out I guess

    What pattern? Where's your data for these months of sims?

    No data man, just usually getting a zero seems very rare and when it happens on day one of double drops it seems a bit sus because it's too convenient
  • There’s a tendency to ignore the uneven distribution. Essentially, because the probability is not exactly 50%, you are likely to have several lower-than-probable outcomes to offset one higher-than-probable income. At the extreme ends, you are 32 times as likely to roll a 0 out of 5 as you are to roll a 5 out of 5, on a 1/3 chance of success per roll.
    So yes, it is frustrating, especially when it seems like you are getting the short end during a double event. TVF is right, your sample size is too small; and there are four more days of double drops. Keep rolling.
    Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for life.
  • TVF wrote: »
    Has anyone noticed any reduction in drop rates? I did 3 fleet refreshes and 3 normal energy refreshes. With the fleet energy I tried farming some gear, the drops were horrendous. With normal energy I tried farming sith trooper shards with one of them and pulled 0 shards and when I tried hitting some kyro I only managed to get 1 and 2 successful attempts per refresh. So far on day 1 I got absolutely screwed by the drops and got fewer stuff than even on regular days. Sure the sample size is really small to draw conclusions, I want to see how the rest of the event is going to go.

    I know right??? Random number generators are supposed to always work in your favor! Especially when you particularly want them too.

    Well if for months you notice a certain pattern and when the conditions change seemingly in your favor the pattern conveniently breaks then it's hard not to feel a bit sussed out. Again, it is the first day of a 5 day event so we'll see how the other 4 days play out I guess

    What pattern? Where's your data for these months of sims?

    No data man, just usually getting a zero seems very rare and when it happens on day one of double drops it seems a bit sus because it's too convenient

    CG have increased the drop rate. My 17 sims proves this beyond doubt!
  • TVF
    33137 posts Member
    That's only 29% lol
    The CGDF requests that CG takes away everyone's Extra Life Charity Event rewards. We don't deserve them. https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • TVF
    33137 posts Member
    TVF wrote: »
    Has anyone noticed any reduction in drop rates? I did 3 fleet refreshes and 3 normal energy refreshes. With the fleet energy I tried farming some gear, the drops were horrendous. With normal energy I tried farming sith trooper shards with one of them and pulled 0 shards and when I tried hitting some kyro I only managed to get 1 and 2 successful attempts per refresh. So far on day 1 I got absolutely screwed by the drops and got fewer stuff than even on regular days. Sure the sample size is really small to draw conclusions, I want to see how the rest of the event is going to go.

    I know right??? Random number generators are supposed to always work in your favor! Especially when you particularly want them too.

    Well if for months you notice a certain pattern and when the conditions change seemingly in your favor the pattern conveniently breaks then it's hard not to feel a bit sussed out. Again, it is the first day of a 5 day event so we'll see how the other 4 days play out I guess

    What pattern? Where's your data for these months of sims?

    No data

    Gotcha
    The CGDF requests that CG takes away everyone's Extra Life Charity Event rewards. We don't deserve them. https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • Been great on some and bad on others for me.
    Double drops means the drop quantities are doubled - not the drop rate. You're still subject to exactly the same %chance of getting the drop. It's always like this.

    On 29 sims I managed 28 Krrr shards so comfortably above average - Boushhh drops were about average - 8 shards for 15 sims but Sklando hit above average at 14 shards for 15 sims. Other nodes I hit returned below average.

    The drop rates never change - our perception of them over a short period of time often does - even more so during double drops because our expectation and/or hope of getting the drop is increased so the brain places a higher significance on the result.

    I'm aware and I took that into account. For example the sith trooper node drops 4 shards per successful attempt, I did 10 attempts and only got 4 shards which is 1/10 attempts or 10%, normally it should be at least 30% so at least 12 shards

    Isn't 4 for 10 40%, so 20% considering double drop ?
  • I got 12 Boushh Leia shards out of 15 attempts. Usually not as lucky so I will take it.
    Forget the gear crunch, why can't we sim the Sith raid yet?
  • crzydroid
    6741 posts Moderator
    Double drops means the drop quantities are doubled - not the drop rate. You're still subject to exactly the same %chance of getting the drop. It's always like this.

    On 29 sims I managed 28 Krrr shards so comfortably above average - Boushhh drops were about average - 8 shards for 15 sims but Sklando hit above average at 14 shards for 15 sims. Other nodes I hit returned below average.

    The drop rates never change - our perception of them over a short period of time often does - even more so during double drops because our expectation and/or hope of getting the drop is increased so the brain places a higher significance on the result.

    I'm aware and I took that into account. For example the sith trooper node drops 4 shards per successful attempt, I did 10 attempts and only got 4 shards which is 1/10 attempts or 10%, normally it should be at least 30% so at least 12 shards

    There is no "normally." You get what you get with any particular sample.

    The binomial probability of hitting 1 drop out of 10 attempts for a 33% droprate is 8.67%. So unlucky, but still greater than 5% or whatever you would set your alpha at for NHST. So your statistical test failed to find a significant result, and you have no evidence that the droprate is lower than normal.
  • Starslayer wrote: »
    Been great on some and bad on others for me.
    Double drops means the drop quantities are doubled - not the drop rate. You're still subject to exactly the same %chance of getting the drop. It's always like this.

    On 29 sims I managed 28 Krrr shards so comfortably above average - Boushhh drops were about average - 8 shards for 15 sims but Sklando hit above average at 14 shards for 15 sims. Other nodes I hit returned below average.

    The drop rates never change - our perception of them over a short period of time often does - even more so during double drops because our expectation and/or hope of getting the drop is increased so the brain places a higher significance on the result.

    I'm aware and I took that into account. For example the sith trooper node drops 4 shards per successful attempt, I did 10 attempts and only got 4 shards which is 1/10 attempts or 10%, normally it should be at least 30% so at least 12 shards

    Isn't 4 for 10 40%, so 20% considering double drop ?

    The node rewards 2 shards and with the double drops 4, so 4 shards equals one successful attempt
  • Tellithowitis
    110 posts Member
    edited November 25
    I’ll take these “terrible “ drops, lol
    r5y91o4nppm3.jpeg

    4/5 nice
  • 4/5 nice

    Not really...

    It is 2/5, since it is double drop.

    In normal day (not double drop), each node gives 2 shards...
    2 nodes = 4 shards >>> double drop = 8 shards.

  • 4/5 nice

    Not really...

    It is 2/5, since it is double drop.

    In normal day (not double drop), each node gives 2 shards...
    2 nodes = 4 shards >>> double drop = 8 shards.

    2 shards are for older toons, if you look up who it is, she is normally 1 shard, so 4/5 on non-double drop days.

    If this is how you are going to look at this game, you're probably not going to enjoy playing
  • In any case it's still double drops all the way, you get lucky sometimes, sometimes not so lucky. Happy gaming everybody :⁠-⁠)
  • This is the good thing about double drops lasting for several days. One day you might be less lucky with rng, another day you might be luckier.
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