Shard drop rate is toooooo low :(

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GegeGerard24
77 posts Member
edited November 29
I get often 0 shard out of 5 allowed hard battles per day.
Even at this double drop during the game birthday. <<< almost as if the game wants only to troll us...you can have double drops, but the drop rate is low :(

Any1 has the same problem? Or i am just super unlucky (everyday)...
Post edited by crzydroid on

Replies

  • Community tracked data and shard drop rate is about 33%. Unfortunately that’s rng, so you will have more and you will have less. Keep on farming and don’t think too much about it.
  • GegeGerard24
    77 posts Member
    edited November 24
    Starslayer wrote: »
    Community tracked data and shard drop rate is about 33%. Unfortunately that’s rng, so you will have more and you will have less. Keep on farming and don’t think too much about it.

    Thanks for the info.

    I mean...i can handle 2 shards per 5 allowed hard battles (that is 1 out of 5, because each battle potentialy gives 2 shards)...

    But 0 shard per 5 allowed hard battles is too much for the heart...lol
    And i must add...it happens often for me...

    Some days...i spends 120 energies w/o getting any shards...

    Sorry for having whined...as i said, it is too much for the heart...lol.

    A picts that i posted at my guild's discord.

    n4u22jpzgd5q.jpg

    Oh yes...it happens in cantina too. 12 battles = 2 shards (1 out of 12 battles gave the shards).
    Some days, 0 shard x_x

    f2gngauufgcv.jpg



  • It’s just probability. A 33% drop rate is not a guarantee that you will get one every three tries, any more than a 50% chance is a guarantee that you will get your desired result once when flipping a coin two times. It is entirely possible to get the opposite result twice; it’s actually 25% likely.
    So while the odds of being unsuccessful go down with each additional attempt added to a batch of tries, they are never 0%.
    Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for life.
  • nfidel2k wrote: »
    It’s just probability. A 33% drop rate is not a guarantee that you will get one every three tries, any more than a 50% chance is a guarantee that you will get your desired result once when flipping a coin two times. It is entirely possible to get the opposite result twice; it’s actually 25% likely.
    So while the odds of being unsuccessful go down with each additional attempt added to a batch of tries, they are never 0%.

    Yes i know...

    It is like tossing a 100-sided-die. 33 sides score 2 shards and the rest score nothing.

    It is possible that when you toss that die 12 times, it always scores nothing.
    But it is true that every toss has 33% probability of scoring 2 shards.

    Still...knowing the theory and having often the bad experience (score nothing) are 2 different things...lol

    It is too much for the heart, if you know what i mean...
    Feeling angry when it happens...lol
  • Absolutely, it can be frustrating. Just keep rolling the dice.
    Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for life.
  • TVF
    33137 posts Member
    I did 25 sims on nuLeia today

    0/5 to start

    Then 3/5 (6), 2/5 (4), 2/5 (4), 2/5 (4)

    18 shards on 25 sims? Yes please.
    The CGDF requests that CG takes away everyone's Extra Life Charity Event rewards. We don't deserve them. https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • I got 12 Boushh Leia shards in 15 attempts
    Forget the gear crunch, why can't we sim the Sith raid yet?
  • Tellithowitis
    110 posts Member
    edited November 25
    TVF wrote: »
    I did 25 sims on nuLeia today

    0/5 to start

    Then 3/5 (6), 2/5 (4), 2/5 (4), 2/5 (4)

    18 shards on 25 sims? Yes please.

    2/5 seems to be the default, funny how frequently you get 1/0 but how incredibly rarely you get 4/5 to offset those 1s and 0s. Same with gear, I regularly do 12 attempts and the expected outcome is 3 but often I'll get 0-1-2 and sometimes 4-5 but getting 6 is extremely rare and getting 7-8-9 is dang near impossible, it just doesn't seem to happen ever for me at least.
    Post edited by crzydroid on
  • LordDirt wrote: »
    I got 12 Boushh Leia shards in 15 attempts

    6/15 successful attempts is the same as pulling 2 shards per 5 attempts which is the daily default limit of a hard node. I wouldn't be so happy, that's pretty much what you should always expect to get
  • GegeGerard24
    77 posts Member
    edited November 25
    TVF wrote: »
    I did 25 sims on nuLeia today

    0/5 to start

    Then 3/5 (6), 2/5 (4), 2/5 (4), 2/5 (4)

    18 shards on 25 sims? Yes please.

    Ooo...so thats how you guys do it...

    Sadly, i dont have much crystals to refresh the attemp.
    I am new and F2P player.

    "New" means i havent been able to participate in those daily side games which give extra crystal everyday.
    Like, rank <50 in fleet arena starts to give you 50 crystals everyday.

    So...everyday, i stick to the 5 allowed hard battles only.

    But then again...how does one explain "2 shards from 12 battles", some days, 0 shard and this is not an exageration...

    Except, the RNG probability needs to be upgraded :p
  • I've had zero Mara shards the last two days, I don't refresh the nodes either. Lots of Dash shards though doing the 3x100 cantina energy.
  • TVF
    33137 posts Member
    TVF wrote: »
    I did 25 sims on nuLeia today

    0/5 to start

    Then 3/5 (6), 2/5 (4), 2/5 (4), 2/5 (4)

    18 shards on 25 sims? Yes please.

    2/5 seems to be the default, funny how frequently you get 1/0 but how incredibly rarely you get 4/5 to offset those 1s and 0s. Same with gear, I regularly do 12 attempts and the expected outcome is 3 but often I'll get 0-1-2 and sometimes 4-5 but getting 6 is extremely rare and getting 7-8-9 is **** near impossible, it just doesn't seem to happen ever for me at least.

    The tracked droprate is around 33%.
    The CGDF requests that CG takes away everyone's Extra Life Charity Event rewards. We don't deserve them. https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • TVF wrote: »
    I did 25 sims on nuLeia today

    0/5 to start

    Then 3/5 (6), 2/5 (4), 2/5 (4), 2/5 (4)

    18 shards on 25 sims? Yes please.

    Ooo...so thats how you guys do it...

    Sadly, i dont have much crystals to refresh the attemp.
    I am new and F2P player.

    "New" means i havent been able to participate in those daily side games which give extra crystal everyday.
    Like, rank <50 in fleet arena starts to give you 50 crystals everyday.

    So...everyday, i stick to the 5 allowed hard battles only.

    But then again...how does one explain "2 shards from 12 battles", some days, 0 shard and this is not an exageration...

    Except, the RNG probability needs to be upgraded :p

    33% drop rate means 67% no drop.

    The chance of 5 in a row of a 67% thing happening is .67x.67x.67x.67x.67 for a pretty high 13.5%. Pretty close to 1/7, so seeing this once a week if you do 5 sims a day is pretty much to be expected.

    The chance of just 2 in a row at 33% is
    .33x.33 for 10.9%

    So 5 in a row of no drops is more likely to happen than a mere 2 in a row of drops.

    Why don't you often see 5 drops from 5 attempts? .33x.33x.33x.33x.33 is 0.4% chance of seeing this. Not often. But I have seen it. I've been playing for 5+ years, so I should have.

    Someone will likely correct me here, I'm not great on this stuff. Could be wrong.
  • 33% drop rate means 67% no drop.

    The chance of 5 in a row of a 67% thing happening is .67x.67x.67x.67x.67 for a pretty high 13.5%. Pretty close to 1/7, so seeing this once a week if you do 5 sims a day is pretty much to be expected.

    The chance of just 2 in a row at 33% is
    .33x.33 for 10.9%

    So 5 in a row of no drops is more likely to happen than a mere 2 in a row of drops.

    Why don't you often see 5 drops from 5 attempts? .33x.33x.33x.33x.33 is 0.4% chance of seeing this. Not often. But I have seen it. I've been playing for 5+ years, so I should have.

    Someone will likely correct me here, I'm not great on this stuff. Could be wrong.

    No...not once a week.
    I am sure it is more than once a week, according to (what little) experience i have.

    So...1 out of 5 is 33% (i dont ask much. Just 1 battle out of 5 gives me the shards. So lets put aside, for now, the "2 out of 5 = 10.9%") and 0 out of 5 is 13.5%...
    Why do i get the feeling that i often get 0 out of 5?

    Again...this math doesnt explain the 1 out of 12 above...

    Let me document all my attempts next week and post those here.

  • Just got this
    oyf4natx3ci6.png
    k0r5j69a103w.png
    Forget the gear crunch, why can't we sim the Sith raid yet?
  • 33% drop rate means 67% no drop.

    The chance of 5 in a row of a 67% thing happening is .67x.67x.67x.67x.67 for a pretty high 13.5%. Pretty close to 1/7, so seeing this once a week if you do 5 sims a day is pretty much to be expected.

    The chance of just 2 in a row at 33% is
    .33x.33 for 10.9%

    So 5 in a row of no drops is more likely to happen than a mere 2 in a row of drops.

    Why don't you often see 5 drops from 5 attempts? .33x.33x.33x.33x.33 is 0.4% chance of seeing this. Not often. But I have seen it. I've been playing for 5+ years, so I should have.

    Someone will likely correct me here, I'm not great on this stuff. Could be wrong.

    No...not once a week.
    I am sure it is more than once a week, according to (what little) experience i have.

    So...1 out of 5 is 33% (i dont ask much. Just 1 battle out of 5 gives me the shards. So lets put aside, for now, the "2 out of 5 = 10.9%") and 0 out of 5 is 13.5%...
    Why do i get the feeling that i often get 0 out of 5?

    Again...this math doesnt explain the 1 out of 12 above...

    Let me document all my attempts next week and post those here.
    Don't bother. 1 week of data from 1 player is not enough to establish anything.

    1 out of 12 seems odd because people expect random to mean the same as "evenly distributed". It's not. This game has no mercy system where after 5, 10 or 50 attempts it guarantees a drop. Each attempt is independent and only 33%. You could have had an unlucky run of 20 no drops. It doesn't make number 21 any more likely to have a drop. It's still 33%.

    Are you farming more than 1 character? Any more than 5 attempts per day throws off my stuff above. And the days where you get 3 balance out a bunch of zero days (no math here, I'm just spitballing).

    Over the long term, over all players, it's 33% per attempt. Someone will be able to point you at the big data gathering discords and spreadsheets. Or just search the forums/internet.

    My math above was just to show that 33% can feel bad, because all the other results pile up between the lucky runs. Especially if you've started to focus on the bad and dismiss the good.

  • Inb4 somebody brings back the "3 sims a time makes better drop rates" "theory".
  • 0 x 2 = 0
  • Don't bother. 1 week of data from 1 player is not enough to establish anything.

    1 out of 12 seems odd because people expect random to mean the same as "evenly distributed". It's not. This game has no mercy system where after 5, 10 or 50 attempts it guarantees a drop. Each attempt is independent and only 33%. You could have had an unlucky run of 20 no drops. It doesn't make number 21 any more likely to have a drop. It's still 33%.

    Are you farming more than 1 character? Any more than 5 attempts per day throws off my stuff above. And the days where you get 3 balance out a bunch of zero days (no math here, I'm just spitballing).

    Over the long term, over all players, it's 33% per attempt. Someone will be able to point you at the big data gathering discords and spreadsheets. Or just search the forums/internet.

    My math above was just to show that 33% can feel bad, because all the other results pile up between the lucky runs. Especially if you've started to focus on the bad and dismiss the good.

    Thanks for the explanation.

    Yes, i am farming more than 1 characters.
    As a F2P, i farm my prioritized characters 1st (5 allowed hard battles) then i used whatever energies left to farm other characters (since i cant farm anymore the prioritized characters).

  • TVF
    33137 posts Member
    MrTanner wrote: »
    0 x 2 = 0

    Backwards
    The CGDF requests that CG takes away everyone's Extra Life Charity Event rewards. We don't deserve them. https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
  • crzydroid
    6741 posts Moderator
    TVF wrote: »
    MrTanner wrote: »
    0 x 2 = 0

    Backwards

    Communative property.
  • Inb4 somebody brings back the "3 sims a time makes better drop rates" "theory".

    It was 2. And I haven't seen that posited in a while. I assume they were shamed into silence or got lost in the grocery store and never made it home to a charger.
  • Ragnarok_COTF
    1178 posts Member
    edited November 25
    To OP, I get how you feel. Just know that your emotional response to the randomness is one of the ways CG tries to elicit spending. They could triple the shards required, triple the returns on shipments/packs, and up the drop rate to 100%. But there's a very profitable reason they don't.
  • To OP, I get how you feel. Just know that your emotional response to the randomness is one of the ways CG tries to elicit spending. They could triple the shards required, triple the returns on shipments/packs, and up the drop rate to 100%. But there's a very profitable reason they don't.

    Thanks, i agree.

    There is nomore i can do but to keep on clicking the sim button everyday :)
    I enjoy the game, thanks CG.
  • LordDirt
    3688 posts Member
    edited November 26
    Drop rate is low. Check this guys out.

    i0ql2dkub51h.png
    Forget the gear crunch, why can't we sim the Sith raid yet?
  • GegeGerard24
    77 posts Member
    edited November 27
    Boushh (Leia Organa), yesterday.
    d0lhk4hfx5s0.jpg

    Moff Gideon, today.
    cjyzb8ifydfp.jpg

    It is confirmed, this is NOT once a week!
    Actually...b4 yesterday, i had some of these, this week alone.

    =====

    Looking at this...
    TVF wrote: »
    I did 25 sims on nuLeia today

    0/5 to start

    Then 3/5 (6), 2/5 (4), 2/5 (4), 2/5 (4)

    18 shards on 25 sims? Yes please.

    ...and my own experience, i think the drop rate may be increased when you spend some crystals.

    So, for those who never spend any crystal (F2P players) to refresh the attempt, they often get 0/5.

    Somehow it fits the suspicion...lol.

    =====

    JK Anakin, just now.
    pxzgwdm1akyk.jpg

    (0/5) twice a day (120 energies wasted) and when it did score, it wasnt exiting too.
    Got 4 Bastila Shan, 4 dark trooper = (1/5) on double drop event.



    Post edited by GegeGerard24 on
  • It seems people forget there's a 33% drop rate on 330 shards (complete character). How the 33% is skewed during that farm is varied from character to character. I'm one of those who bothered taking notes during farms and learnt it's about 33% by actually collecting my own data. Did this on cantina, light, dark and fleet, the result is always the same: ca 33%. You will never get 33% every day but when you reach 330 shards the drop rate will always end up about 33%.
  • GegeGerard24
    77 posts Member
    edited November 27
    Count Dooku, just now...dang, 180 energies wasted in 1 day.
    lcnsm4j45ptn.jpg
    It seems people forget there's a 33% drop rate on 330 shards (complete character). How the 33% is skewed during that farm is varied from character to character. I'm one of those who bothered taking notes during farms and learnt it's about 33% by actually collecting my own data. Did this on cantina, light, dark and fleet, the result is always the same: ca 33%. You will never get 33% every day but when you reach 330 shards the drop rate will always end up about 33%.

    Thanks for the info.
  • TVF
    33137 posts Member
    i think the drop rate may be increased when you spend some crystals.

    So, for those who never spend any crystal (F2P players) to refresh the attempt, they often get 0/5.

    Somehow it fits the suspicion...lol.


    You're wrong.
    The CGDF requests that CG takes away everyone's Extra Life Charity Event rewards. We don't deserve them. https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
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