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## Replies

Thanks for sharing.

OK, i have been playing GAC for only a week now. Maybe thats why i still dont see the effect of improved crystal influx.

I bought Hyperdrive bundle 2 weeks ish ago. At first, i owned only a few hundreds crystals. But after i bought it, i owned 2k ish crystals.

I used it to buy 20 0-0-0 shards = 2k crystals and another 10 0-0-0 shards = 800 crystals.

So, i was broke.

I admit that now i have 1.3k crystals, but that is because the hyperdrive quests and some archievements that i finished. An hHyperdrive quest gave 250 crystals and a single archievement gave about 50.

If what the mod has said is true, i would have now 5k crystals. But that is not the case.

Funny thing is i dont spend crystal like crazy, i dont (never infact) refresh the node...but why my total crystal pile so slowly?

If it werent for the hyperdrive quests and some archievements i finished...my crystals would only be a few hundreds in these 2 weeks. This is not an exageration!

So yes, i try to save whatever little crystal i have.

And i wonder...how in the world, some players in my shoes can refresh their node. We will end up having no crystal everytime.

Started to play:Oct 30, 2022 ---Ally code:628-998-777 ---My links:swgoh.gg | youtube | My SWGOH journeySaying wrong without presenting your argument is useless.

Please do point out where my math is wrong.

Thanks.

Started to play:Oct 30, 2022 ---Ally code:628-998-777 ---My links:swgoh.gg | youtube | My SWGOH journeySee earlier in the thread

I’m not close to any degree in maths and didn’t get any of that.

But i know this: if you have 33% to get a shard on a hard node, you would need about 330/33%=1,000 battles to 7* a character from zero. Considering 5 battles per day on a hard node, that’s 1000/5=200 days, 100 days for an accelerated character with 2 shards per drop.

You just have to write down when you start farming a character and when you finish it.

See you in 200 days with your conclusion ?

So if you're getting 55 a day from GAC, that means you are in Carbonite 5. If you get even to Carbonite 1, that is 20 more crystals a day right there. If you are brand new that is one thing. But don't claim to speak to all f2p. Plenty of f2p are in Kyber and finish at the top of their fleet payout. They earn 600-700+ crystals a day. They can easily afford refreshes.

You are not listening so there is not much point.

You appear to have deleted or changed the post that was replying to, but it basically had no correct math in it at all.

Said by you:

"It means >>> the Probability of (1/5) + P(2/5) + P(3/5) + P(4/5) + P(5/5) = 33%

And the probability of (0/5) = 67%"

This is just all wrong. Way back at the start of the thread I showed you the math for a 0/5, which is definitely not 67%.

NOTE: i had to rewite this, because when i had edited the origjnal post, suddenly it disappeared.

Yes, because i was talking about (0/5) as AN attempt, not as 5 individual attempts.

Having said that, there are now 6 samples.

(0/5) = none is successful. Gets 0 shards in 5 attempts.

(1/5) = 1 attempts out of 5 scores some shards.

(2/5) = 2 attempts out of 5 scores some shards.

(3/5) = 3 attempts out of 5 scores some shards.

(4/5) = 4 attempts out of 5 scores some shards.

(5/5) = all attempts are successful. All attempts give some shards.

Known success probability = 33%

Success = scores some shards.

So the success probability = the probability of (1/5) + (2/5) + (3/5) + (4/5) + (5/5) = 33%

AND the probability of (0/5) = 67%

As a F2P player who never refreshes his node (i stick to only 5 allowed hard battles per day), for 1000 such datas/attempts, i need 1000 days.

So, the total days that i am not successful = 67% x 1000 days = 670 days....................(*)

======

For the individual attempts, there are only 2 samples.

(0/1) failed attempt = scores no shards.

(1/1) success attempt = scores some shards.

Success probability = 33%

Fail probability = 67%

As you have pointed out, to have 1000 such datas/attempts, one needs 200days.

So, the total days of failure = 67% x 200 days = 134 days.

======

Ok, one may not see it and says "the attempt should be individual and not 5 collective attempts."

This is the prove that they are the same.

So, in individual attempt, an F2P player has 134 days of failure.

BUT what if we want to enlarge such data 5 times.

We dont want to play only 200 days, we want to play 1000 days.

It means the day of failure = 670 days <<< from 5 x 134 days = 670 days.................(**)

Now compare (*) and (**). They are the same, are they not?

======

What are you trying to say here?

That i am simple and stupid so no wonder that came out of me?

You didnt see it, you asked for explanation, yet you call yourself mathematician (i have a degree in math).

This is a public forum. Your opinion is not the most correct one, unless you are one of the programmers or GOD HIMSELF.

Next time, try to not bellittle any1 by bragging about your degree and your coded msg (i know where it came from).

Started to play:Oct 30, 2022 ---Ally code:628-998-777 ---My links:swgoh.gg | youtube | My SWGOH journeyI don’t know if you were going with the chance to roll at least one success out of five, which would be 33%; but the inverse of that would be the chance to roll at least one failure out of five, which would be 67%. So the chance of rolling 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 out of 5 is 33% technically, but the 67% inverse is the chance to roll 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 out of 5. Not just roll a 0 out of 5.

The chance to roll 0 out of 5 is the chance on a single roll (67%) carried to the power of the number of rolls. So 0.67 x 0.67 x 0.67 x 0.67 x 0.67, or (0.67)^5, or approximately 13.5%.

F2P in my shoes, in my condition...

Dont talk about kyber with 600-700 crystal a day x_x

Yes...at 25 crystal per refresh and so much things (sold in crystals) to buy in the shipment...i wonder if an F2P player (again, in my shoes) would waste his crystals in unsure/uncertain attempt in nodes.

Started to play:Oct 30, 2022 ---Ally code:628-998-777 ---My links:swgoh.gg | youtube | My SWGOH journeyNot deleted...it disappeared suddenly...

I rewrote it above...

So, point out where is the uncoreect math...

You surely agree with the math of the individual attempt.

(0/1) = 67%

(1/1) = 33%

Now see the 5 collective attempts as 5 attempts per day....and do it 1000 days = 5000 attempts

>>> 67% x 5000 attempts = 3350 failed attempts.

Since i do 5 attempts per day so these 3350 failed attempts will be archieved in 3350 attempts ÷ 5 attempts/day = 670 days.

You see?

Started to play:Oct 30, 2022 ---Ally code:628-998-777 ---My links:swgoh.gg | youtube | My SWGOH journeySome advice:

I saw you said you do 1 gal war battle per day.

Complete gal war each day. The whole track. Piles of that currency and 25(?) crystals per day. Once you have done it a bunch you get to just sim it.

Use crystals on energy only, and pick 2 characters to refresh the node on. Preferably accelerated characters. Just refresh them once per day to cut the farm time in half. (Not because of a change in drop rate, because doing 10 sims per day is twice as many as 5).

When you get a pile of crystals don't blow it on gear and shards. Use it to refresh more energy types each day (only for up to 3x per day, until the refresh cost goes up). You will get more gear and shards per crystals this way.

Why do you keep on with the collective attempts? Each attempt is an individual 33% chance.

You can't lump 5 attempts together and say 0/5 is the 67% fail. You have about a 14% chance of a 0 out of 5.

The 1/5 has 1 drop and 4 not drops.

The 2/5 has 2 drops and 3 not drops.

Etc

Why would you do 1000 days if you are doing 5 per day? Again with the collective thing messing up your math.

You need to do about 1000 attempts to get to the 330 shards. Not 1000 days. A group of 5 attempts is not the same as 1 attempt.

A player who does not refresh the node would need 200 days in order to do 1000 attempts. A player who refreshes the node once per day will only need 100 days.

No...and it is out of 6, not out of 5.

There are 6 samples (0/5), (1/5), (2/5), (3/5), (4/5) and (5/5)

But we know that the probabily of scoring is 33% <<< everyone seems to agree with this.

What is the probability of scoring...the probability THAT we score.

In individual score...we can say.

1st attempt = (1/1) <<< scores

2nd attempt = (0/1)

3rd attempt = (0/1)

4th attempt = (1/1) <<< scores

5th attempt = (0/1)

Or we can say (2/5) if we want to say it as 5 collective attempts.

Now, we are all agree that in a large data, we get 33% of success rate.

Lets say, 1000 data.

In individual attempt = 1000 attempts have to be made.

In 5 collective attempts = 200 attempts have to be made.

But since we can do 5 attempts per day (without refresh)...these 1000 attempts are actually those 200 5-collective-attempts...are they not? You see?

So...how do you now say...what is applied to those 1000 attemps cant be apllied to those 200 5-collective-attempts?

It is just a new way of saying it....just a term.

The datas are the same, no matter how you group them, in group of 1 or in group of 5.

1000 individual attempts = 200 5-collectives attempts.

Thus what can be aplied to the first can be applied to the later too.

All seem to agree to 67% x 1000 individual attempts = 670 fail attemps.

So...67% x 200 5-collectives-attempts = 134 fail attempts

So i will have (0/5) 134 times...

And i will have the amount of (1/5) + #(2/5) + #(3/5) + #(4/5) + # (5/5) = 66 times.

Just do normal 1000 individual sampling that you already know...

Like this....

(1/1)

(0/1)

(0/1)

(0/1)

(0/1)

(0/1)

(0/1)

(0/1)

(0/1)

(0/1)

(0/1)

(1/1)

(1/1)

(0/1)

(0/1)

•

•

•

(1/1) <<< until the 1000th data.

But now, group it into 5.

(1/1) group 1 = (1/5)

(0/1)

(0/1)

(0/1)

(0/1)

(0/1) group 2 = (0/5)

(0/1)

(0/1)

(0/1)

(0/1)

(0/1) group 3 = (2/5)

(1/1)

(1/1)

(0/1)

(0/1)

•

•

•

(1/1) <<< until the 1000th data.

I am sure...that you will have close to 134 of group 2 (failed group) and 66 of success group which contain (1/5) and/or (2/5) and/or (3/5) and/or (4/5) and/or (5/5).

Started to play:Oct 30, 2022 ---Ally code:628-998-777 ---My links:swgoh.gg | youtube | My SWGOH journeyI have presented the math as good as i could. And i hope you see it.

I dont want to make enemies by argueing to much while the truth is only in GOD's hand and the programmers'es hands.

Thanks for the good discussion.

Started to play:Oct 30, 2022 ---Ally code:628-998-777 ---My links:swgoh.gg | youtube | My SWGOH journey...then they end up with a 7 star character sitting on the bench without gear.

That's not how you play f2p.

And I think the math degree is impressive Darjelo. It’s definitely not a “Certificate of Completion” thing, it takes work. Very cool.

When you make 5 attempts at farming shards from a node, there are 6 possible outcomes:

0 shards: 13.5% chance

1 shard: 33.2% chance

2 shards: 32.7% chance

3 shards: 16.1% chance

4 shards: 4.0% chance

5 shards: 0.5% chance

Now you’ve explained it, I do understand.

As I said before, there is no opinion in Maths. There’s right and there’s wrong. Your maths is wrong.

Sure, in your shoes, at the start of the game, refreshing character nodes would seem daunting. But a lot of people would be expected to advance and grow and many have. So my comments were more a response to what seemed like a blanket statement about "f2p." People mean a lot of different things when they say "f2p" on this site. Mostly, it seems they mean "me." There are a lot of f2p in this game at different stages of progress. Back when arena was more important and the game was more meta-driven, the only way for an f2p to get in on the new meta during the first run of the event was to refresh nodes multiple times. So it is very possible.

And not to beat a dead horse about the math(s), but the 33% drop rate, as others have pointed out, refers to the chance of dropping a shard per each attempt. This also amounts to the proportion of successful drops out of any number, N. For an individual sample, x, the chance of a shard is 0.33. So the expected value of shards over N attempts is N*0.33.

Yes, over time, and over individuals, 67% of the total drops are expected to be failures, though this can vary from sample to sample. But that just means that out of 1000 attempts, the expected value of successes is 330. So if you do five a day, that's an average across individuals and character farms of 200 days.

The chance of getting 0 out of 5 is NOT 67%. The porportion of expected failures out of 5 is 67%. 5*0.67 = 3.35 expected failures. Which means 1.65 expected successes, so any random draw from among individuals and across days, we should expect one or two successes out of five. But some of the observations will be different! As pointed out, the chance of exactly 0/5 is 0.67^5 = 13.5%.

You are right that there are six possible outcomes, but rather than the chance of 0 holding at 67% across attempts, the chance of any single outcome (e.g. 0/5) decreases as the number of outcomes increases. And by single here, I mean that there is only one way you can get 0/5, and that is for all attempts to be 0. There are five ways to get 1/5, however. You can have a success on either attempt 1, attempt 2, etc. So the relative odds of 1/5 go up (i.e., is not just 0.33/5).

People have listed the exact probability tables for you, and you were even pointed towards the binomial distribution, which for your convenience is:

(N!/(x!*(N-x)!)*p^x*q^(N-x)

where N is the total number of trials, x is the number of success, and p and q are the odds of success and failure, respectively (where q = 1-p).

This ^^^

I went 0/34 trying to get G12 Fusion Furnace Shards.

Then got 16 Shards on 4 Sims of Embo (4/4)

Its frustrating to be sure but it averages out over time.

Started to play:Oct 30, 2022 ---Ally code:628-998-777 ---My links:swgoh.gg | youtube | My SWGOH journeyPlease stop trolling

half my rate - you should spend more money