# ZERO SHARDS!!!! :(

2Next

## Replies

• 9944 posts Member
cboath7 wrote: »
cboath7 wrote: »
OK at least I know it's not just me. CG should loosen the lasso a bit. It would entice dedicated players to keep playing!

It'll never even out in the same amount of time at any rate. several years playing (started before thrawn came out i think) and have never ever even gotten close to 15/15 in one day. I'll get a 5/5 maybe once every 4-6 months.
15/15 is NOT evening out a 0/0

It only isn't because the odds of getting 5/5 shards is lower than 0/5. You don't seem to have an equal chance of all 6 results, like rolling a die. If you roll a die, your odds of rolling 6 5x in a row is the same as rolling 1 5x in a row, but what should be an even roll is heavily weighted against you. It's why everyone gets 0/5 substantially more often than 5/5.
Of course the odds of 5/5 are lower than 0/5.

The odds of 1/1 are 0.33333, so we can work these things out using the binomial probability distribution.

It is not an even roll, and I didn’t think anyone seriously thought it was or that it should be.
• 18 posts Member
edited December 2022
Do other people sim 5 battles at a time and get zero shards 50% of the time?!?! That didn't happen to often for a long time but now it seems to happen ALL THE TIME! It makes playing seem like a waste of time!

In the end, there is nothing more one can do, except keeps hitting that sim button everyday.

Complaining, trying to understand the math (the probability), quitting etc etc don't help.

Just enjoy the game and be patient without thinking too much about how unlucky you are.
Do that everyday and you will have fun

Good luck and have fun

I don’t know. I think understanding the probability actually might help in this case.
• 97 posts Member
I think drop rates work like this:
if you tell it to sim 5 times then it will flip a coin 5 times, heads you get 2 shards, tails you get none.
Then it saves the result and rerolls if you get the same result
After you have run out of results it restarts. Then you get even results over a period of time but still have unlucky and lucky days.

(I am aware it's a bit more complicated than that, but I am summarizing)
Sometimes a door is just a door
• 7145 posts Moderator
xpgammer wrote: »
I think drop rates work like this:
if you tell it to sim 5 times then it will flip a coin 5 times, heads you get 2 shards, tails you get none.
Then it saves the result and rerolls if you get the same result
After you have run out of results it restarts. Then you get even results over a period of time but still have unlucky and lucky days.

(I am aware it's a bit more complicated than that, but I am summarizing)

I can't tell if this is a joke or not.
• 97 posts Member
crzydroid wrote: »
xpgammer wrote: »
I think drop rates work like this:
if you tell it to sim 5 times then it will flip a coin 5 times, heads you get 2 shards, tails you get none.
Then it saves the result and rerolls if you get the same result
After you have run out of results it restarts. Then you get even results over a period of time but still have unlucky and lucky days.

(I am aware it's a bit more complicated than that, but I am summarizing)

I can't tell if this is a joke or not.

It's not a joke really, many drop rates have something like this so that people don't level faster or slower than other players
Sometimes a door is just a door
• 7145 posts Moderator
edited December 2022
xpgammer wrote: »
crzydroid wrote: »
xpgammer wrote: »
I think drop rates work like this:
if you tell it to sim 5 times then it will flip a coin 5 times, heads you get 2 shards, tails you get none.
Then it saves the result and rerolls if you get the same result
After you have run out of results it restarts. Then you get even results over a period of time but still have unlucky and lucky days.

(I am aware it's a bit more complicated than that, but I am summarizing)

I can't tell if this is a joke or not.

It's not a joke really, many drop rates have something like this so that people don't level faster or slower than other players

Well, in that case, I can absolutely say this is not how drop rates work. You can have steaks of good and bad while having an average expected rate across time and individuals without having to resort to fancy limiting tactics, which would make the distribution decidedly NOT random.

This would also be cumbersome to implement, because there's no rule that says you have to do five at a time; so you'd have to record results whether corresponding to if they did 1,2,3,4, or 5. The algorithm could also then be circumvented to a degree.

It also occurs to me that they would have to record a result for EVERY node/shard/item. Since they can't be bothered to use more than one autofill history for ships across events and TB, I highly doubt they would do this.
Post edited by crzydroid on
• 169 posts Member
Boushi is having the worse week of drop rates, paid the extra 25 crystals to get the 5 extra sims 0/10, next day pay 25 and then 50 for energy ...1/10.

Happy atm Santo is bonus drop, because his drop rate is also a pos. outrider is also hit and miss, some days 1/5, others 2/5.

Someone mentioned about timing of the day - a girl in my old guild ran a self test on this, she had some mixed results about in the morning being terrible compared to the evening, but if people are in different time zones I don't see how that matters.

What I do hate though is paying those extra 50 crys for energy or 25 crys for sims and you get nothing at all, like come on you could spare one shard couldn't you.
• 11 posts Member
As other said, to get 5/5 you must close your eyes and pray to the Jabba God. 0/0 is very common unfortunately
• 1475 posts Member
CF2 wrote: »
As other said, to get 5/5 you must close your eyes and pray to the Jabba God. 0/0 is very common unfortunately

0/0 is guaranteed. At least you have a chance at 5/5 even without the prayer.
F2P since the last time I bought Kyros, Crystals, or the Conquest Pass.
• 1016 posts Member
i get 0/0 on all nodes that i don’t sim.
• 2381 posts Member
CF2 wrote: »
As other said, to get 5/5 you must close your eyes and pray to the Jabba God. 0/0 is very common unfortunately

With a 33% drop rate on shards, you have 13,5% chances to get 0/5 and 0,4% chances to get 5/5. So let’s say you farm hard nodes 4 times a day, you will see on average a 0/5 every 2 days and a 5/5 every 2 months.
• 11257 posts Moderator
i used to do 2 sims at a time because it’s not as bad as seeing 0/5
• 5724 posts Member
Do other people sim 5 battles at a time and get zero shards 50% of the time?!?! That didn't happen to often for a long time but now it seems to happen ALL THE TIME! It makes playing seem like a waste of time!

You are suffering confirmation bias. When I Sim Mara jade almost everyday the number that appears most commonly to me is 2. If I refresh for 25 crystals, you're not gonna believe this. 2!
• 43 posts Member
I've noticed that the closer you get, the less shards are given. And especially if it's a new character and shards are available to purchase. Try farming something else for a few days and come back. I think the game coding has more AI towards farming than the actual in game challenges.
• 9944 posts Member
I've noticed that the closer you get, the less shards are given. And especially if it's a new character and shards are available to purchase. Try farming something else for a few days and come back. I think the game coding has more AI towards farming than the actual in game challenges.
Hogwash. Complete hogwash.

Lookup “confirmation bias”. That’s what’s happening here.
• 526 posts Member
Should also lookup variable scope. The algorithm would need to be aware of how many shards you have, which, while not impossible, is completely unnecessary.
Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for life.
• 401 posts Member
edited December 2022
Starslayer wrote: »
With a 33% drop rate on shards, you have 13,5% chances to get 0/5 and 0,4% chances to get 5/5. So let’s say you farm hard nodes 4 times a day, you will see on average a 0/5 every 2 days and a 5/5 every 2 months.

I got 5/5 Han Solo this morning

Edit: just now.

Post edited by GegeGerard24 on
Started to play: Oct 30, 2022 --- Ally code: 628-998-777 --- My links: swgoh.gg | youtube | My SWGOH journey | NORDIC KINGDOM is recruiting
• 2381 posts Member
edited December 2022
Starslayer wrote: »
With a 33% drop rate on shards, you have 13,5% chances to get 0/5 and 0,4% chances to get 5/5. So let’s say you farm hard nodes 4 times a day, you will see on average a 0/5 every 2 days and a 5/5 every 2 months.

I got 5/5 Han Solo this morning

Edit: just now.

The drop rate for bonus shards is different. Still, enjoy the free shards
• 206 posts Member
"33% drop rate" it is just marketing and rise people expectation. When they are saying this, people are blinded and only see the 33% chance to get a shard, what people don't see or forget is that, there is 67% chance to get nothing. Sometimes you get a 0/5, other times 4/5, ... never forget that it is a Random Number Generator algorithm behind all this, and it's only purpose is to make you spent resources (of any kind, crystals, money,....) and "roll" again like an addict.
• 36013 posts Member
Nope
I need a new message here. https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
• 9944 posts Member
wharp wrote: »
"33% drop rate" it is just marketing and rise people expectation. When they are saying this, people are blinded and only see the 33% chance to get a shard, what people don't see or forget is that, there is 67% chance to get nothing. Sometimes you get a 0/5, other times 4/5, ... never forget that it is a Random Number Generator algorithm behind all this, and it's only purpose is to make you spent resources (of any kind, crystals, money,....) and "roll" again like an addict.
33% drop rate has never been “marketed” by CG. It’s been measured through mass recording of observed data.

The only people blinded by anything are those who are predisposed to whine about CG even when their whine has no basis in fact.
• 206 posts Member
wharp wrote: »
"33% drop rate" it is just marketing and rise people expectation. When they are saying this, people are blinded and only see the 33% chance to get a shard, what people don't see or forget is that, there is 67% chance to get nothing. Sometimes you get a 0/5, other times 4/5, ... never forget that it is a Random Number Generator algorithm behind all this, and it's only purpose is to make you spent resources (of any kind, crystals, money,....) and "roll" again like an addict.
33% drop rate has never been “marketed” by CG. It’s been measured through mass recording of observed data.

The only people blinded by anything are those who are predisposed to whine about CG even when their whine has no basis in fact.

Marketed or not the point still is the same, complaining people are still blinded and are only seeing the 33% and not the 67%, whatever you call it (whining), they have high expectation and believe the drop rate is even which is not as you already said and I agree with it.
• 206 posts Member
TVF wrote: »
Nope

As usual
• 36013 posts Member
wharp wrote: »
TVF wrote: »
Nope

As usual

Indeed!
I need a new message here. https://discord.gg/AmStGTH