Obviously there’s no conclusive proof, but it wouldn’t be beyond the realms of possibility that they might attach a lower than usual drop rate to this chase, given that it’ll be needed at 7* to just unlock the new CS.
The problem with that sort of conspiratorial chat is that the drop rates have been different for different ships before.
3%, which this ship clearly is, is not lower than usual as there have been other ships dropping at that rate.
Agreed. All the data I've seen or experienced myself (a small data sample, admittedly) points to an average of 3%.
Obviously there’s no conclusive proof, but it wouldn’t be beyond the realms of possibility that they might attach a lower than usual drop rate to this chase, given that it’ll be needed at 7* to just unlock the new CS.
The problem with that sort of conspiratorial chat is that the drop rates have been different for different ships before.
3%, which this ship clearly is, is not lower than usual as there have been other ships dropping at that rate.
I wasn’t aware that previous ships had had different chase drop rates. Were there any in particular you can remember as having higher or lower ones. Just interested.
I do know that I’m just looking at confirmation bias given my own drop rate so far has been close to 2.5%. Some people will end up with higher or lower than 3% (that’s just how stats work), it just sucks this time around to be tracking below the average personally. Maybe I’ll get luckier with the second new release that’ll be needed for Leviathan.
Account started June 2020. 100% FTP. 6.8m GP. JMK, JML, SEE and Exe. Ally code 117-269-921. Swgoh.gg
Obviously there’s no conclusive proof, but it wouldn’t be beyond the realms of possibility that they might attach a lower than usual drop rate to this chase, given that it’ll be needed at 7* to just unlock the new CS.
The problem with that sort of conspiratorial chat is that the drop rates have been different for different ships before.
3%, which this ship clearly is, is not lower than usual as there have been other ships dropping at that rate.
I wasn’t aware that previous ships had had different chase drop rates. Were there any in particular you can remember as having higher or lower ones. Just interested.
I do know that I’m just looking at confirmation bias given my own drop rate so far has been close to 2.5%. Some people will end up with higher or lower than 3% (that’s just how stats work), it just sucks this time around to be tracking below the average personally. Maybe I’ll get luckier with the second new release that’ll be needed for Leviathan.
Speaking of how stats work, it’s a little early to decry your drops. You could easily get above 3% by the end of tomorrow.
Obviously there’s no conclusive proof, but it wouldn’t be beyond the realms of possibility that they might attach a lower than usual drop rate to this chase, given that it’ll be needed at 7* to just unlock the new CS.
The problem with that sort of conspiratorial chat is that the drop rates have been different for different ships before.
3%, which this ship clearly is, is not lower than usual as there have been other ships dropping at that rate.
I wasn’t aware that previous ships had had different chase drop rates. Were there any in particular you can remember as having higher or lower ones. Just interested.
I do know that I’m just looking at confirmation bias given my own drop rate so far has been close to 2.5%. Some people will end up with higher or lower than 3% (that’s just how stats work), it just sucks this time around to be tracking below the average personally. Maybe I’ll get luckier with the second new release that’ll be needed for Leviathan.
The TIE Defender was generous. 5% maybe?
If you stick with the TIE Dagger farm, you'll probably find the drop rate will even out. I'd stick it out if you can - you've got 8 days left.
Obviously there’s no conclusive proof, but it wouldn’t be beyond the realms of possibility that they might attach a lower than usual drop rate to this chase, given that it’ll be needed at 7* to just unlock the new CS.
The problem with that sort of conspiratorial chat is that the drop rates have been different for different ships before.
3%, which this ship clearly is, is not lower than usual as there have been other ships dropping at that rate.
I wasn’t aware that previous ships had had different chase drop rates. Were there any in particular you can remember as having higher or lower ones. Just interested.
I do know that I’m just looking at confirmation bias given my own drop rate so far has been close to 2.5%. Some people will end up with higher or lower than 3% (that’s just how stats work), it just sucks this time around to be tracking below the average personally. Maybe I’ll get luckier with the second new release that’ll be needed for Leviathan.
Speaking of how stats work, it’s a little early to decry your drops. You could easily get above 3% by the end of tomorrow.
Not necessarily. Assuming a Poissonian distribution (which seems most appropriate for this combination of probability and trials) having this drop rate puts me in the bottom 10%. Obviously it can improve, but at the end of the day there’s a fair probability people will end up with less than the average. I’m not actually that annoyed about it, more of an inconvenience.
Account started June 2020. 100% FTP. 6.8m GP. JMK, JML, SEE and Exe. Ally code 117-269-921. Swgoh.gg
Obviously there’s no conclusive proof, but it wouldn’t be beyond the realms of possibility that they might attach a lower than usual drop rate to this chase, given that it’ll be needed at 7* to just unlock the new CS.
The problem with that sort of conspiratorial chat is that the drop rates have been different for different ships before.
3%, which this ship clearly is, is not lower than usual as there have been other ships dropping at that rate.
I wasn’t aware that previous ships had had different chase drop rates. Were there any in particular you can remember as having higher or lower ones. Just interested.
I do know that I’m just looking at confirmation bias given my own drop rate so far has been close to 2.5%. Some people will end up with higher or lower than 3% (that’s just how stats work), it just sucks this time around to be tracking below the average personally. Maybe I’ll get luckier with the second new release that’ll be needed for Leviathan.
Speaking of how stats work, it’s a little early to decry your drops. You could easily get above 3% by the end of tomorrow.
Not necessarily. Assuming a Poissonian distribution (which seems most appropriate for this combination of probability and trials) having this drop rate puts me in the bottom 10%. Obviously it can improve, but at the end of the day there’s a fair probability people will end up with less than the average. I’m not actually that annoyed about it, more of an inconvenience.
While you might end up with less than average (although the event only dropped yesterday - and there's no reason to think that you're just stuck behind unfavourable RNG) - I'd still push it. Personally, I'd much rather get as close as I can rather than farm it on a hard node. Now that's a pain.
Obviously there’s no conclusive proof, but it wouldn’t be beyond the realms of possibility that they might attach a lower than usual drop rate to this chase, given that it’ll be needed at 7* to just unlock the new CS.
The problem with that sort of conspiratorial chat is that the drop rates have been different for different ships before.
3%, which this ship clearly is, is not lower than usual as there have been other ships dropping at that rate.
I wasn’t aware that previous ships had had different chase drop rates. Were there any in particular you can remember as having higher or lower ones. Just interested.
I do know that I’m just looking at confirmation bias given my own drop rate so far has been close to 2.5%. Some people will end up with higher or lower than 3% (that’s just how stats work), it just sucks this time around to be tracking below the average personally. Maybe I’ll get luckier with the second new release that’ll be needed for Leviathan.
The TIE Defender was generous. 5% maybe?
4%
The CGDF requests that CG takes away everyone's Extra Life Charity Event rewards. We don't deserve them. https://discord.gg/AmStGTH
I’m a conspiracy believer. I’m convinced day 1 drop rates are always higher. After max saving to almost 1200 energy plus the refreshes through 100s, on Day 1, I did sims in sets of five. I had zero zeros and even a 5 of 5. I ended up with 68 shards. Throughout the day, I picked up 12 more shards.
This morning with my overnight earned energy plus the 100s refreshes, I earned 21 shards.
I’m a conspiracy believer. I’m convinced day 1 drop rates are always higher. After max saving to almost 1200 energy plus the refreshes through 100s, on Day 1, I did sims in sets of five. I had zero zeros and even a 5 of 5. I ended up with 68 shards. Throughout the day, I picked up 12 more shards.
This morning with my overnight earned energy plus the 100s refreshes, I earned 21 shards.
But did you wear the same underwear on day 2 that you wore on day 1?..... Were you sitting in the same chair?...
All kidding aside, your drop rate for day one was 3.5%, your drop rate for day 2 was (roughly) 2.5%... That puts you right at the 3% average....
FYI, that was your 777th post, better start simming...
Replies
Agreed. All the data I've seen or experienced myself (a small data sample, admittedly) points to an average of 3%.
I wasn’t aware that previous ships had had different chase drop rates. Were there any in particular you can remember as having higher or lower ones. Just interested.
I do know that I’m just looking at confirmation bias given my own drop rate so far has been close to 2.5%. Some people will end up with higher or lower than 3% (that’s just how stats work), it just sucks this time around to be tracking below the average personally. Maybe I’ll get luckier with the second new release that’ll be needed for Leviathan.
Thanks. That’s what I get for not labeling anything to make sure anyone who walks by thinks I’m doing actual work…
The TIE Defender was generous. 5% maybe?
If you stick with the TIE Dagger farm, you'll probably find the drop rate will even out. I'd stick it out if you can - you've got 8 days left.
Not necessarily. Assuming a Poissonian distribution (which seems most appropriate for this combination of probability and trials) having this drop rate puts me in the bottom 10%. Obviously it can improve, but at the end of the day there’s a fair probability people will end up with less than the average. I’m not actually that annoyed about it, more of an inconvenience.
While you might end up with less than average (although the event only dropped yesterday - and there's no reason to think that you're just stuck behind unfavourable RNG) - I'd still push it. Personally, I'd much rather get as close as I can rather than farm it on a hard node. Now that's a pain.
4%
Started mid-FEB 2017, and not trying to reach the top.
I got 30 from about the same.
This morning with my overnight earned energy plus the 100s refreshes, I earned 21 shards.
But did you wear the same underwear on day 2 that you wore on day 1?..... Were you sitting in the same chair?...
All kidding aside, your drop rate for day one was 3.5%, your drop rate for day 2 was (roughly) 2.5%... That puts you right at the 3% average....
FYI, that was your 777th post, better start simming...
I've been following that and my personal rate has been around 2.5%...after today it seems to be creeping towards 3% overall (83/2900).
Nice. I'm only at 2.7%...109/4020. I'm going to need to start buying more refreshes.
Very jealous. I’m at 123 now for 4480 energy, a little over 2.7%
Don't be too jealous - all it will take is one day of a lower average and my drop rate will tank lol
On the bright side - a single day of above average drops brings you back in line with the expected rate.
I've been doing 2 of the 200c refreshes daily and am at 167/330 shards. That was with 1000+ energy hoarded before the chase started.
Did you preload 1000 ship energy before the chase started?