Getting that last shard...

Is it just me or does the game know when you have just one more shard to promote a character, and it takes you like 10 more rolls than usual? Maybe I'm just paranoid...

Replies

  • duffmc81 wrote: »
    Is it just me or does the game know when you have just one more shard to promote a character, and it takes you like 10 more rolls than usual? Maybe I'm just paranoid...

    Doubt it but it sure feels that way doesn't it? lol

    3 days (9 battles) trying to get my last shard for Jedi Guardian 4*, still stuck at 29/30. :'(
    Ally Code: 945-699-762
  • The struggle is real bruh
  • Loce
    194 posts Member
    Lol...I wish I actually kept records on all the drops.
  • Loce
    194 posts Member
    duffmc81 wrote: »
    The struggle is real bruh

  • Yeah. I mean I know for a fact I was getting at least 2 to 3 per day (talia, in cantina) and have had none in the least day in a half.
  • Loce
    194 posts Member
    I was grinding Talia to 4*. Her shards were fast. I definitely remember that.
  • That feeling when you finally get it though...
    4icd2.gif
  • Preemo_Magin
    1826 posts Member
    edited December 2015
    I can't say things deteriorate but the variance or dispersion seem off. I may get no shards at all in 15 runs. Then get four in a row.

    My thoughts, more as a person that studied phsychology and economy, that there's a tint small chance they may use an algorithm that instead of random, it gives the same probability, but has larger win and lose streaks. Here's the benefit:

    When you win a lot, you associate it with luck. Then you will be overspending it to capitalize you "luck". Or if you are on a bad streak, you may get to consume your energy "allocation". So you buy 1 more refresh than needed, just to get that 1 or 2 shards you desperately need.

    But I don't think anybody here uses it. It would be a bit low to use casino game algos and playing this with usually underage groups... Especially since the can just lower the yield anything they want.

    If you ever experience a 10 straight lose streak on shards, the probability of that ever happening if shards drop at 1/3 rates are 1 in 100,000. Sonin this case the variance may be being engrossed, or you just hit a 1 in 100,000 corner case (actually it's 1.5 every 100k).

    The easiest way to test is record outcomes for 2000 tries, and record every drop and non-drop, and then analize the variance and drop rate.
    Post edited by Preemo_Magin on
  • Interesting theory. Does seem they tend to come in bunches, when they do come. I should keep track once to acruelly see.
  • duffmc81 wrote: »
    Is it just me or does the game know when you have just one more shard to promote a character, and it takes you like 10 more rolls than usual? Maybe I'm just paranoid...

    I thought my JC would be 7 today and the drop rate suddenly dropped off the table. It's been consistent the entire time I've played this game and today it just died.
  • reizse
    1447 posts Member
    yeah, i've had streaks of 5 shards in a row, then 10 runs with no shards. i hope it balances out, but when you're on the final shards, it feels like you're being cheated lol
    mighty chlorians
  • Btw, as soon as I posted this and midnight hit... one roll, got the shard. Hah.
  • Getting that last 8 equipments to gear up :p
  • Reddplague
    766 posts Member
    edited December 2015
    I wonder if the amount to players has anything to do with it. If missions get 100k click a day. Would that affect the drop rate for the day? Maybe the drops are better when the servers refresh daily.






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