Aayla Counter Issue

VirtraThrad

So Aayla's counter chance when maxed out is supposed to be 65%. However, I've discovered this is far from the case. I've noticed her low counter chance over the past two weeks, once i invested to max the skill. Once i thought it to be off, I began to experiment. I placed her on a team with 5s who currently has a 70% counter chance, and kit fisto who currently has a 35% counter chance. They were supported by Mace Windu and Luminara (so that i could try to keep them alive as possible to test this out). I also invested about 400 crystals in refreshes to get enough data. This is what followed:

20 tier 8 hard battles:
Aayla attacked 32 times, countered 6, for a total of 18.8 % counter chance.
5s attacked 28 times, countered 16 times, for a total of 57.2% counter chance
Kit Fisto attacked 20 times, countered 8 times, for a total of 40% counter chance.

8 nodes in Guild War:
Aayla attacked 16 times, countered 6 times, for a total of 37% counter chance.
5s attacked 20 times, countered 15 times, for a total of 75.2% counter chance.
Kit Fisto attacked 18 times, countered 6 times, for a total of 33.3% counter chance.

Rancor Phase 2 (only counted ground pounds because i wanted to compare counters of toons on the same attack):
4 ground pounds
Aayla countered 0.
5s countered 3 times, for a total of 75% counter chance.
Kit countered 1 time for a total of 25 % counter chance.

5 Arena battles:
Aayla attacked 12 times, countered 3 times, for a total of 25% counter chance.
5s attacked 20 times, countered 13 times, for a total of 65.4% counter chance.
Kit Fisto attacked 18 times, countered 6 times, for a total of 33.3% counter chance.

Final tallies (average of all battles):
Aayla with a total of 20.2% counter.
5s with a total of 68.2% counter.
Kit Fisto with a total of 32.9 counter.

As you can see, 5s and Kit both seem to hit close to their marks, with some variable thrown in to account for RNG and it's randomness... but Aayla is consistently well below her 65% counter chance. In fact, by all regards, she should be countering almost as much as 5s at this current lvl, but she is no where close.

I will continue to do more research, as this character is very essential to my squad (and a favorite of mine just because of old EU comics and the Clone Wars), but I wanted to know if anyone else was encountering this.

scuba

I have only really used her with IgD lead and she than has 100% and did counter everytime.

crzydroid

Sorry, I know this is an old thread, and this doesn't necessarily dispute your results for Aayla, but you appear to have simply averaged your percentages at the end, which you can't do because the different fights have different denominators. Here are the correct results:

Aayla: 15/64 = 23.4%
Fives: 47/72 = 65.3%
Kit: 21/60 = 35%

So it looks like Kit Fisto is spot on. Fives is closer to Aayla's, but we can allow that for small sample sizes...in fact, sqrt((0.653*0.347)/72) = 0.056, so 70% is within one standard error.

For Aayla, sqrt((0.234*0.766)/64) = 0.053. So 65% isn't even within two standard errors of your estimate of 23.4%. So pretty sure we can say something's not right here.

You COULD have had extremely bad luck I suppose, but you did this at different times over the course of several different battles. Perhaps a true long-term sample would show her closer to the mark, but I would say these results are cause for investigation.

crzydroid

In fact, let's set up the null hypothesis that her counter chance is 65%. For 64 random draws from a binomial distribution of p = 0.65, here is the probability of 15 counters:

p(15) = (64!/(15!49!))*(0.65^15)*(0.35^49) = 0.0000000000114.

The cumulative probability of obtaining 15 or fewer counter attacks is 0.0000000000135.

I would certainly call that statistically significant.

In other words, we would expect you to achieve a result of 15 or fewer counters per 64 attacks fewer than 14 times in 1 trillion if her counter chance were really 65%. So we can reasonably conclude that her counter chance is not 65%.

MikeyStarkiller

+1

VirtraThrad

Yeah I have had to go with gun di myself because her counter was so unreliable. Now, with gun di she counters like dooku... so I don't really care all that much, but i would love to be able to use her in other squads with more certainty.

crzydroid

Just to let you know, I've since unlocked my own Aayla so I'm conducting my own study. So far, mine looks good...although today I had a 0/4 in raid. I'll post again once I have the data.

VirtraThrad

Awesome. I look forward to seeing if someone else has the same results or if I just had some extremely bad RNG