Many of my characters need MK-V Stun cuffs, so im trying to get them. I simmed 19 battles to try and get some and i only got 1 !!!!! So i said im gonna start taking pictures of this to prove that i have the worst luck trying to get these items. Later i simmed 13 battles and only got 1 again. So out of a total of 32 battles i got 2 MK-V stun cuffs !!
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We all remember long streaks of luck, "I got 0/20, this is not right!" or "I got 10/15, so it's fine it's RNG".
In the end, most likely, the probability for any given event is going to be what expected in the very long run (1/3 for shards, 1/6 for 50pieces purple gear...).
But, those long streaks of good or bad luck are very suspicious. They should be terribly rare, much than we actually experience them. I have the feeling that the probability fluctuates, decreasing and increasing, making possible those long streaks, but in the very long run balancing towards the expected probability.
In other words, let's do what we all instinctively do, stay away from those nodes when we obtain barely nothing, and do not keep insisting, but keep investing when we get better rewards. Behind this maybe not just superstition, but something true.
Replies
It was them extra 2 battles i did over you that got them
That's what I did... there goes that theory...
+1
In the end, most likely, the probability for any given event is going to be what expected in the very long run (1/3 for shards, 1/6 for 50pieces purple gear...).
But, those long streaks of good or bad luck are very suspicious. They should be terribly rare, much than we actually experience them. I have the feeling that the probability fluctuates, decreasing and increasing, making possible those long streaks, but in the very long run balancing towards the expected probability.
In other words, let's do what we all instinctively do, stay away from those nodes when we obtain barely nothing, and do not keep insisting, but keep investing when we get better rewards. Behind this maybe not just superstition, but something true.