Probability and the Terrible Idea of Purchasing
November 9, 2017 2:29AM
edited November 2017
The text for the Clan Mother pack reads: "Each pack guarantees at least 5 shards for Mother Talzin, and may drop up to 330 shards! Possible shard drops include: 5, 7, 10, 12, 15, 20, 25, 50, 80, 145, 230, 330."
I would've been happy with anything from 25 - 330 shards and disgusted with anything from 5 - 20 shards. I guessed that made my probability about 50/50 (6 of the outcomes were positive, 6 negative). My mistake was assuming the probability of all possible outcomes were equal.
My results across five id.i.ot.ic purchases were: 10, 10, 7, 5, 5.
Had the probabilities for all outcomes been equal, the probability of getting two tens in a row, for example, would've been 1/12 * 1/12 = 1/144. Same with getting those two fives. The probability of getting only outcomes in the "undesirable" half would be 1/2 to the 5th power, or 1/32. My conclusion is that while not explicitly stated, there is not an equal probability of all outcomes. Rather it is like pulling a slot machine: the 'better' outcomes are clearly less probable.
Pulling slot machines are addictive. I'm a d.um.my for doing it five times. That's my bad. EA is using "Dark UX" successfully, which is a moral grey area - but they're hardly the only ones doing it in mobile gaming.
I'm no whale, I shouldn't try. Don't do it, dude.
Post edited by Kyno on
0
- 61.6K General Discussion
- -35 Developer Q&A Archive
- 2.6K New Players
- 30.7K Arena and Character Strategy
- 3.2K Individual Events
- 5.5K Guild Events
- 4.7K PVP and Rivalry
- 51K Guild Recruitment
- 751 Art and Media
- 4.2K Off Topic
Howdy, Stranger!
Replies
What? 99? It is ridicolous. I think You mean 5 $..... Everything above is a joke.
When you play this game you are either rich or constantly frustrated. That is how they care about their player base.
Another 2 characters we cannot use unless we spend 300 dollars on them to reach 7 stars now. We were not given anything today as we can't use these characters in arena nor raids. Useless indeed.
$99.99 should actually get you all toons and ships in the game lvl85, 7*, g12, all abilities maxed (incl. Zetas) and 500 type-A mods lvl 15 of each type. And probably also full access to all future mobile EA games.
Please remember to put $99.99 in the context of other video games. This would be a collector edition of a blockbuster for a PC game. You could get 10-20 full great games on Steam for that price.
10 years ago, the most expensive and very comparable games would cost $5 max to unlock everything. I suppose they call it "inflation"...
This^^
Research to make informed purchases is the best way to not feel the way you do.
Moved to correct sub forum.
Nothing "guaranted" specials for increasing it popularity, nothing sale options, etc. Not user friendly.
Doesn't that make it the exact opposite of thievery?
Bud, it's a hyperbole is all.
You may think it's a joke, but some of us don't. Its not really if you take in to account the amount of time saved in that value proposition.
If given a bunch of Google play credits for like birthdays or Christmas or something, and I have them saved up, I would INSTANTLY purchase that. Good commission check and a good toon comes out? I'd seriously consider for that price. Like probably 75% chance of me pulling the trigger on that kind of deal.
What I'm buying is months of my time to enjoy a character now. Gear 9-11 is great, because I get the thrill of maybe getting a g11 toon. Max level is nice because I don't have to spend my hard earned credits. No worries about farming all the bull crap gears to get them that first bit. And abilities up to Omega level short of zeta is actually really nice. Saves me weeks of farming omegas. Which frees up my omegas for someone else. And frees up gear for someone else. The mod set would be nice for the price. Like a "this is what we suggest you use" set. Have that be random between blue and orange. So at least it'll upgrade decently even if it ends up being a kind of crummy mod.
I think that model would be wildly successful and encourage a LOT more people to spend it.
@Ceodoc this is a good idea.
This is glorious
Fair ain't got nothin' to do with it.
This. The fact that EA has successfully warped players perception to the point that someone would propose $495 for a squad of characters in a mobile game is "fair" is disgusting.
Just curious - not being judgmental. In your example you are given the Google Play credits. What if you were given $99 in cash instead. Do you still by the bundle?
Have you any idea how much a luxury yacht berth costs at Martha's?!!
My issue is about value, and as we have seen in other Galaxies not so far away the last few days, it is too much greed.
$99.99 is a lot of money for 1 single toon, even if it is geared and ready to play, but we have a price point of circa $350 to just unlock at 7* Lvl1 and naked!
Yeah right!
Heck I hope they continue to make money and I don't mind supporting them, but the current 1299 crystal pack is just a really horrible deal.
I recall hearing it became law in China or something a while ago, but it is not a law to do so in most countries. Obviously, they won't tell us the probability distribution, cause if they did then their sales of those packs would drop a ton. They also know that if we saw the drop rates for gear then people would be even more upset. Gold gear and purples have a much lower drop rate than the greens and blues for example. It gives them more control over things to not tell us.