Cheaper to buy Nest shards than refresh fleet battle

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Just a little math I wanted to share now that Nest is farmable. Assuming the shard drop rates are the same on fleet hard nodes as they are on regular hard nodes (which I haven't confirmed) it is cheaper to buy Nest shards than purchase energy and refresh her node.

Cost in store: 320 crystals / 4 shards = 80 crystals per shard.

On node: 150 crystals (50 to refresh node and 100 to buy energy) / 1.67 shards (33% drop rate) = 90 crystals per shard.

Replies

  • Snake2
    1455 posts Member
    Yeah this is the most expensive "farmable" toon yet.
  • Darksouls2020
    368 posts Member
    edited August 2018
    You are not factoring ship omega and reinforced material drop which has high value.
  • They wanna go the same direction as MSF, kill off the free to play player. And we all know where MSF is heading with people quitting that
  • JacenRoe
    3016 posts Member
    edited August 2018
    You're way high.

    First off if you refresh the node you'll average 3.33 shards for your 10 attempts, not 1.67. You're using the number of shards you would get if you were just doing 5. So that has your number way over inflated.

    Secondly, you don't have to buy a 100 crystal energy refresh every day. If you refresh her node for 50 crystals daily, and don't farm anything else you'll have a bit of energy left over when you refresh your energy for 100. It regenerates slowly, so it can be left until the next day without running over. You won't have to refresh your energy for two to three more days. Just her node daily. So you could farm her node 10 times a day only refreshing your energy twice a week approximately.

    So by that method you should average 24 crystals per shard.

    (50x7)+100+100=550 crystals spent per week

    550/7=78.57 crystals spent on average per day

    78.57/3.33=23.59 crystals spent per shard on average
  • 1/3 drop rate assumption is based on nothing, therefore these calculations are all of no use.
  • Botzone1 wrote: »
    They wanna go the same direction as MSF, kill off the free to play player. And we all know where MSF is heading with people quitting that

    Sad!
  • JacenRoe
    3016 posts Member
    Geshtianna wrote: »
    1/3 drop rate assumption is based on nothing, therefore these calculations are all of no use.

    You're dead wrong. It's based on thousands upon thousands upon thousands upon thousands upon thousands of drops that people have tracked. I tracked every single shard that dropped for me for the first 8 month I played. It's 33% as surely as water is wet, and the sun rises in the east.
  • Is it pretty well established the drop rates are universal or unique for each shard?
  • JacenRoe
    3016 posts Member
    Is it pretty well established the drop rates are universal or unique for each shard?

    Universal. Every character shard be it from cantina, hard nodes, or fleet battles drops 1/3 of the time regardless of the energy cost of the node. Always 1/3. It's as ironclad a fact as any that exist in this game.
  • It not 33%. Sometimes like today resistance tripper from 5 try, 0 shards.
  • No_Try
    4051 posts Member
    edited August 2018
    Xx1xx2xx2 wrote: »
    It not 33%. Sometimes like today resistance tripper from 5 try, 0 shards.

    Yeah, that's exactly how statistics work. You should instead be getting 1.66 shards per day each day.
  • JacenRoe wrote: »
    You're way high.

    First off if you refresh the node you'll average 3.33 shards for your 10 attempts, not 1.67. You're using the number of shards you would get if you were just doing 5. So that has your number way over inflated.

    Secondly, you don't have to buy a 100 crystal energy refresh every day. If you refresh her node for 50 crystals daily, and don't farm anything else you'll have a bit of energy left over when you refresh your energy for 100. It regenerates slowly, so it can be left until the next day without running over. You won't have to refresh your energy for two to three more days. Just her node daily. So you could farm her node 10 times a day only refreshing your energy twice a week approximately.

    So by that method you should average 24 crystals per shard.

    (50x7)+100+100=550 crystals spent per week

    550/7=78.57 crystals spent on average per day

    78.57/3.33=23.59 crystals spent per shard on average

    You're each calculating something different. The OP is calculating how much shards beyond the first (free) 5 sims cost. You're calculating the rate including those.

    You are right about the OP not including all the free energy. You get 120+45=165 energy per day, so you only need to buy 35 per day, or ~a refresh per 3 days.

    The actual cost comparison is thus:
    150 (3 node refreshes)+100 (the energy refresh)/5 = 50 crystals per shard (beyond the 5 free sims).

    That said, if you are farming nest and lando with the free energy, you are spending what the op said for a node refresh on nest: it really isn't worth it.
  • I made no refresh at the moment.
    I had 2/5 the first day, 0/5 the second, 1/5 all the other days.
    We will see in the long run.....
  • Acrofales wrote: »
    JacenRoe wrote: »
    You're way high.

    First off if you refresh the node you'll average 3.33 shards for your 10 attempts, not 1.67. You're using the number of shards you would get if you were just doing 5. So that has your number way over inflated.

    Secondly, you don't have to buy a 100 crystal energy refresh every day. If you refresh her node for 50 crystals daily, and don't farm anything else you'll have a bit of energy left over when you refresh your energy for 100. It regenerates slowly, so it can be left until the next day without running over. You won't have to refresh your energy for two to three more days. Just her node daily. So you could farm her node 10 times a day only refreshing your energy twice a week approximately.

    So by that method you should average 24 crystals per shard.

    (50x7)+100+100=550 crystals spent per week

    550/7=78.57 crystals spent on average per day

    78.57/3.33=23.59 crystals spent per shard on average

    You're each calculating something different. The OP is calculating how much shards beyond the first (free) 5 sims cost. You're calculating the rate including those.

    You are right about the OP not including all the free energy. You get 120+45=165 energy per day, so you only need to buy 35 per day, or ~a refresh per 3 days.

    The actual cost comparison is thus:
    150 (3 node refreshes)+100 (the energy refresh)/5 = 50 crystals per shard (beyond the 5 free sims).

    That said, if you are farming nest and lando with the free energy, you are spending what the op said for a node refresh on nest: it really isn't worth it.

    Yeah, you are right. You can still get Nest shards on the cheap though if you are willing to just farm Nest.
  • Kyno
    32087 posts Moderator
    Not to make this more theoretical, but dont you have to account for the free energy too?

    If you are buying shards, you are buying all 330.

    If you are farming then you need to be fair and account for all 330, not just the ones you are paying for.

    Even if you are talking about a combine effort of which is the better use of your crystals, you need to consider the other stuff dropping and in the short term the guaranteed shards vs average drop rates.

    Just a thought.

    This seems a little over simplified to just state it's more expensive, when there are a lot of other factors and it's only 10 difference. 3300 crystals is only 1-2weeks of a top 5 arena finish and you get stuff on that farm you cant get elsewhere.
  • Botzone1 wrote: »
    They wanna go the same direction as MSF, kill off the free to play player. And we all know where MSF is heading with people quitting that

    I don’t think so. This game, and these devs are leaps and bounds better than MSF.
  • Most funny I try from last 4 days farm wicket. So every day 5x and 0 shards
  • Nauros
    5429 posts Member
    Botzone1 wrote: »
    They wanna go the same direction as MSF, kill off the free to play player. And we all know where MSF is heading with people quitting that

    I don’t think so. This game, and these devs are leaps and bounds better than MSF.

    Still feels like it's getting less friendly to ftp, though. There was a time when a single hard node farm was the exception and not the rule. On the other hand, the amount of freely obtainable crystals is pretty generous, especially with the expanded ship rewards.
  • Iy4oy4s
    2923 posts Member
    edited August 2018
    Botzone1 wrote: »
    They wanna go the same direction as MSF, kill off the free to play player. And we all know where MSF is heading with people quitting that

    I don’t think so. This game, and these devs are leaps and bounds better than MSF.

    Totally agreed here. I have my differences with CG, but I am sure as hell glad that don’t run things like foxnext.
  • Seems we can easily just say that it is cheaper to buy extra shards rather than refresh the node. Ta-da, everyone is right, everyone is happy.
  • Nauros wrote: »
    Botzone1 wrote: »
    They wanna go the same direction as MSF, kill off the free to play player. And we all know where MSF is heading with people quitting that

    I don’t think so. This game, and these devs are leaps and bounds better than MSF.

    Still feels like it's getting less friendly to ftp, though. There was a time when a single hard node farm was the exception and not the rule. On the other hand, the amount of freely obtainable crystals is pretty generous, especially with the expanded ship rewards.

    Yea. I wouldn’t say it’s harder for ftp. I would say it’s kind of always been this way but just in different ways. If you take Nest - she works great at 3*. That’s where we got her for free.

    Obviously anything more - gear, Stars- makes her better. I think it was just the influx and onslaught of marquee toons that people think they are falling behind. But that’s not the case at all. Kyno always says it and it’s true - time or money.

    Jacen- is totally ftp and has always been top in arena. It’s totally doable.

    The hard node farms suck because it’s a lot of time for ftp. If you’re farming the “wrong” toon that’s almost 6 months of time you can’t get back.
    I do wish they kept toons farmable in stores but they made this decision and that’s the world we live in.

    If we had more nodes like Kru and his ship it would go a long way for ftp.
  • Xx1xx2xx2 wrote: »
    It not 33%. Sometimes like today resistance tripper from 5 try, 0 shards.

    This is the same sort of person who claims climate change isn't happening because its cold where I am today.
  • Kyno wrote: »
    Not to make this more theoretical, but dont you have to account for the free energy too?

    If you are buying shards, you are buying all 330.

    If you are farming then you need to be fair and account for all 330, not just the ones you are paying for.

    Even if you are talking about a combine effort of which is the better use of your crystals, you need to consider the other stuff dropping and in the short term the guaranteed shards vs average drop rates.

    Just a thought.

    This seems a little over simplified to just state it's more expensive, when there are a lot of other factors and it's only 10 difference. 3300 crystals is only 1-2weeks of a top 5 arena finish and you get stuff on that farm you cant get elsewhere.

    You are exactly right Kyno, it was a very simple (probably oversimplified) calculation. The benefits of the gear and ability mat drops probably push it in the other direction being more beneficial to farm than buy. I have always wanted to develop a calculator of sorts that can truly figure out the value of this sort of thing, but I just don't have the time.

    That said, this is definitely the most "expensive" farm so far, so those who wish to buy the shards and save the time can do so with a clear conscience.
  • Xx1xx2xx2 wrote: »
    It not 33%. Sometimes like today resistance tripper from 5 try, 0 shards.

    Mmhmm. How many shards yesterday? Day before? How many will you get tomorrow?

    5 sims does not a sample size make in the world of probability and statistics.
  • Xx1xx2xx2 wrote: »
    It not 33%. Sometimes like today resistance tripper from 5 try, 0 shards.

    Shenanigans, I have proof that the drop rate for Resistance Tripper on LS3A is 100%:
    WPoltFc.png
  • Snake2
    1455 posts Member
    Whatever type of math you'd like to incorporate. If you want to account for free energy, or factor in ships reinforcements. It doesn't matter.

    When you compare nest to any toon previously called "farmable", and compare them using the same criteria, nest is the most expensive one. By about double any regular 20 energy hard node toon
  • Kyno
    32087 posts Moderator
    Snake2 wrote: »
    Whatever type of math you'd like to incorporate. If you want to account for free energy, or factor in ships reinforcements. It doesn't matter.

    When you compare nest to any toon previously called "farmable", and compare them using the same criteria, nest is the most expensive one. By about double any regular 20 energy hard node toon

    Well that's just not true. Be unhappy about it all you want, but it is in no way double. 50%, is closer if you want to compare to a regular hard node.
    50 refresh + 50 for energy (100) vs 50 refresh + 100 for energy (150).

    No one is saying it's not more expensive when you look at just the shards, but it is more complicated than that, because the extras on that table seem to be more valuable. That was my only point.
  • It's discouraging at least...
    I paid to get her 4stars. I could have just pushed her to g10 but instead used those pieces on og kylo and Ezra cause I use them both in raids and my 4 star nest has no great home :(
  • 1/3 seems really high. I average about 1/7 with 0/5 the norm
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