The longevity of this game

Rockambient
2 posts Member
edited December 2015
How long do you think this game will live?
I know it's been out for less than a month, but the potential is really huge. I mean, we don't even know all the upcoming features (inactive options in the main menu), and with new Star Wars films to be released every year from now on, the number of possibilities is incredible. It is a question of whether EA and CG have the intention of the game lasting for so long, or replacing it with some other title (or a sequel maybe). There are still many flaws but I've been playing since October and love it so far. Really hope it to last and improve constantly. Overall, it's cheaper to enhance something that's good then make something new, out of the black.

Replies

  • In first Time they have to unlock Levels above 60 Quickly, cause prople Should get borred with no real goal.
  • i hope they dont unlock 60 quickly it just means on all to p2p players will streak way ahead and ill be left in the dirt
  • CptKloss
    110 posts Member
    edited December 2015
    Summoners War is out for something like 1.5 years now, i've been playing it for 8 months... it's not really slowing down - so that's a good news for this game, however, the major thing that keeps people playing is true competition. Well designed arena and guild wars and probably "edited for a censored word - a "low level character"" arena coming up soon.

    Arena here is kind of a joke, an afterthought if you will.... thankfully devs have hinted an overhaul.

    No chat and guilds are major detriments as well. And let's not forget the money making model. Summoners, employ a model that does not guarantee you anything really. No "special $99.95" packs that out of the bat give you huge advantage over the majority of playerbase. all these affect longevity.

    If i have to grade longevity of this game at the moment it's prolly C+
  • I can tell you that if they don't very quickly raise the cap level over 60, I will get bored pretty soon. There would be no incentive to spend Crystals or money. It's like speeding up only to find a huge stop sign. And time from now, if the release 10,000 new levels, trust me, I will not spend a dime that time around. Any spending benefit is erased completely after two weeks when you hit the cap.

    But if I were a F2P I'd be happy. So I can certainly understand you F2Ps. hitting the cap so fast just made tou all F2Ps right in my eyes.
  • Player level and characters level should not be combined. They need to separate these in the next update. Not sure, why they tied player and characters level in the first place?
    Top_Quark wrote: »
    They will keep it on and working on new features/toons as long as it's viable. Their previous game HODA has been going on for 2 years. There were times it was close to death, but that was due to diminishing community due to lack of exciting features or wrong steps. It all depends on keeping profitability and pleasing EA from CGs side. I doubt there is a preplanned death time of Sw/GOH

    Yep, and they are still releasing characters two years later. I can wait until they unleash all the characters that they are creating.
  • Enigmaticien
    384 posts Member
    edited December 2015
    We Can see How selfish are people Who aren't level 60 ..
    And When They get the goal they immediatly change their mind..
    At the moment Many people have the 60 goal now and Many begin to get borred ..
    So , no updatz soon, Many people Will Leave .
    Trust me i'm a développer .and the rule of a compagnie is not to let people Leave ......
  • Jaqen_Hghar
    491 posts Member
    edited December 2015
    We Can see How selfish are people Who aren't level 60 ..
    And When They get the goal they immediatly change their mind..
    At the moment Many people have the 60 goal now and Many begin to get borred ..
    So , no updatz soon, Many people Will Leave .
    Trust me i'm a développer .and the rule of a compagnie is not to let people Leave ......

    I disagree. I'm not level 60 yet and don't consider myself selfish towards this game. I can understand level 60 players finding the daily grind for shards/gear becoming duller without also being able to level your character.

    Trust me, I'm a professional.
  • I think they're letting people catch up by holding the cap at 60. Most of the soft launch players have a time advantage and if they opened up the new levels, they'd leave new players so far in the dust, there would be no point in playing. Imagine Level 1 players trying to catch up to say Level 100 players, it would take thousands of dollars and F2P would be impossible.
  • New game that's fun, and its Star Wars. It should last a long time.
  • Quite a while. Games like this die slow deaths. But they die eventually none the less.
  • SwG took 10 years to die, and Star Wars commander has been running for at least 3 and is only a basic tower and defence game. With new movies and publications coming out every year from 2015 onwards, this game will have a lot of content to get characters and events from, plus a 100 million worldwide fanbase to entice. Don't worry about it, you'll likely die before this does.
  • Nicks075
    210 posts Member
    edited December 2015
    A game of this magnitude has a long way to go, this is just the beginning. It's starwars and its release was coordinated with the release of ep7, there's still ep 8 and 9 to help keep it in the spotlight. Look at the other nameless games that have been in the top 5 highest grossing for a long time, Imo they will eventually be dethroned by this game for the long run. I'm sure they already have plans for what will be for the next 2 years.
    Kinda like the big computer companies, the technology exists years ahead of what is available but they only give it out to the public in small increments to keep the constant flow of money coming in. I'd bet leveling up won't be what changes to keep money coming in, it will be major changes to the type of battles.

    But that's just my opinion.
    Look, good against pvp is one thing, good against the living, that’s something else.
  • Reddplague
    766 posts Member
    edited December 2015
    SwG took 10 years to die, and Star Wars commander has been running for at least 3 and is only a basic tower and defence game. With new movies and publications coming out every year from 2015 onwards, this game will have a lot of content to get characters and events from, plus a 100 million worldwide fanbase to entice. Don't worry about it, you'll likely die before this does.

    Lol, so true. Also, remember this is Disney not just EA. Disney has said "they will make Star Wars content until it doesn't make money". If you need more convincing look at Hasbro. They have been making Star Wars toy since the late 90's. I remember when they started making the new action figures ppl went nuts.
  • reizse
    1447 posts Member
    SWGOH is also missing some of the most basic content of all TCG/RPG's...guilds, guild raids, guild wars...there's rumors of ship battles being added. what about an occupation resource farm between players who fight over a limited number of resource nodes? there's lots more to go. i suspect SWGOH to hit its stride in 9 months or so, plateau for 6+ months before slowly losing momentum.

    this can all change with the addition of new content (due to movie releases) so we are almost guaranteed 2+ years of play through new content/character updates alone.
    mighty chlorians
  • I bet you will lose interest and move on long before this game ends. Usually power creep, nerfs, and cost eventually drive away most of the player base and once it becomes unprofitable, the devs stop supporting it. Thats usually 10 to 20 years. Ultima Online, Everquest, etc. are still going.
    "There is no 'try'." - Master Yoda
  • Pilot wrote: »
    I bet you will lose interest and move on long before this game ends. Usually power creep, nerfs, and cost eventually drive away most of the player base and once it becomes unprofitable, the devs stop supporting it. Thats usually 10 to 20 years. Ultima Online, Everquest, etc. are still going.

    now, these were real games though... this is something tailored for "generation selfie" with maybe a 0.5% of "real" content of any of the games you listed.
  • Wow. It's the first time I hear about generation Selfie, and like that label. While generation Selfie spams many generations (I know because we give away these at events) it pretty much sums the iEra we are living now.

    Regarding the game, it will not die even if nothing is done for a while. but the impact on the developers well being, wealth an EA and Disney stock can be easily assessed.

    The two primary values are user churn and average monthly spend.

    Average monthly spend
    I will just say without any updates, old players will see little reason to sustain a high level of initial spend? Why? I won't refresh energy much if it won't give me a large advantage. And as I am capped after a month, new spend will be the same. But let's assume thise that spent $1000 first month, or $10, etc. continue at the same rate (which won't happen if there's a cap, but anyway...).

    Churn rate
    Let's just assume that 25% of players get fed up and quit the game each nee month that pases. The churn is 25% of players every month. Assume 10,000 players download and get hooked every month. After one month, 25% leave as they get bored, but another new players join 10,000. You now have 17,500 players.

    Continue that exercise for 36 months, and your player base will reach 30,050 players more or less.

    If you can change the number of players leaving to 10%, the total players will now be 86,900.

    If you keep 95% of your users every month, a 5% churn, the by year 3 total player base will be 153,000.

    Let's say average spent per month is $10 per player. Now let's see a table:

    Churn 5%: 153,000 x $5 = $1.53 millions/mo
    Churn 10%: 86,900 x $5 = $0.87 millions/mo
    Churn 25%: 30,050 x $5 = $0.30 millions/mo

    Which one would you rather have? Now, the reality is that you also have average revenue per user(ARPU) rapidly declining when new content stalls. And just adding chars isn't new content just as only new cars in Real Racing can't sustain ARPU. You need new challenges, new reasons for grinding, new objectives, new reasons to refresh lots of Crystals.

    If you do the exercise the SAME math applies to ARPU. Each minth, all players reduce their spend a %. We can call it the ARPU REDUCTION speed. And the outcome is at 5% reduction monthy revenue and 5% churn ... close to $750k/mo. At 25% reduction, it's $35k/mo.

    By now, the difference of having 5% quit every month, and those that stay spending 5% less vs the case of 25% departures and 25% reduction in spend their montly spend, is the difference from $10m a year revenue vs less than $0.4m.

    While this example is theoretical, I wanted to share some example of why games stagnate and die when content slows down, or the game stops being a monthly addiction. With caps, I have no hurry. I will spend maybe $10 instead of the $250 I may have spent, and may quit playing after 3 month realizing The remaining grind is not rewarding enough for the pleasure of ranking low, **** those few still hooked enough to have maxed out everything, free or paid, that I'd play against the day I give it another chance. And I won't be spending Chromes either. This scenario is close to a 10% Churn rate with maybe an 80% ARPU reduction. You do the math for 3 years effect, and cry "who stole EA's cheese?"...

    Lack of content and player progress costs fortunes.



  • EA can consider studying what the Koreans are doing with Marvel Future Fight. They are doing fantastic with the roster available ( no xmen, no ff4, etc), and continue to keep players spending.
  • moddom wrote: »
    New game that's fun, and its Star Wars. It should last a long time.

    +1
    Guide to Beating Galactic War from Team Instinct
    TeamInstinct.net -- Community Site and Home to Team Instinct
Sign In or Register to comment.